YoRyz Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 Does it look like that we avoid mixing in coastal areas in nj and LI this run? I don't see mixing issue on the Euro for either area, but possibly down in the Delmarva there would be some mixing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Echo Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 Looks like you might see the jackpot again. The low really bombs out off the NJ shore. Jackpot again? New Castle County DE hasn't seen a jackpot yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 Looks like you might see the jackpot again. The low really bombs out off the NJ shore. Doubt it unless things change. It's bombing out but it's too far northeast for me. Somebody in New England is going to come in with absolutely prolific amounts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 It's pretty cool for this storm to come in at the same time as we are seeing that huge positive 500 mb height anomaly near Alaska. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
YoRyz Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 Jackpot again? New Castle County DE hasn't seen a jackpot yet. Again, I was talking to earthlight, who lives in Northeast NJ. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alpha5 Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 Doubt it unless things change. It's bombing out but it's too far northeast for me. Somebody in New England is going to come in with absolutely prolific amounts. Agreed, the models dont really get the storm bombing out until its too late for places sw of NYC. Thats not to say they wont see warning criteria snow, but the Jackpot will most likely be somewhere in SE NE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Noreaster07 Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 trying to figure out how Reading gets more than Philly, Allentown, and Newark on the GFS. Anybody know why? RDG gets .32 total qpf most of that precip falls with snow ratios at 18:1 and 21:1 ABE gets .34 total qpf but a good chunk of it (.146) occurs with a snow ratio of 15:1 before higher ratios kick in PHL get .32 qpf ratios for most of the storm are 17:1 EWR get .53 qpf .165 of that falls as ice and ratios are mostly lower than 17:1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jasonli18t Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 Anyone have any thoughts on the wind potential with this storm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 JB in his lastest post says that the winds will be impressive in this storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wannabehippie Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 I wouldn't exactly call a foot of snow getting screwed. Now if you had 3 inches and 5 miles to the east had 2ft that I would call screwed. Hate to be a pain in the azz, but for us Red Headed stepsons up here in NW NJ. What do you se for kfwn (sussex) about .60"? got screwed with the Blizz here, had 12.8 and 5 miles to my east had 22" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 Doubt it unless things change. It's bombing out but it's too far northeast for me. Somebody in New England is going to come in with absolutely prolific amounts. what if the euro comes in 30 miles more west again at 00z like it did today? the jackpot is much closer then we think. I think the whole eastern half of NJ on northeast into new england is going to be in for it. 12z euro today trended towards a slightly earlier capture and the low got tugged alittle bit west of 00z.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Noreaster07 Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 From the 12z NAM for PHL, just thought I'd post cause how freaking incredible it is Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Manny Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 This is a very tricky set-up with the earlier capture or later capture scenario and resultant higher or lower QPF for certain areas, but the Euro and GFS are almost similar just more QPF from the Euro, with higher totals reaching western areas a little more. If the capture and CCB development happens earlier then many more people will be happy, which is still a possibility. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
isnice Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 This is a very tricky set-up with the earlier capture or later capture scenario and resultant higher or lower QPF for certain areas, but the Euro and GFS are almost similar just more QPF from the Euro, with higher totals reaching western areas a little more. If the capture and CCB development happens earlier then many more people will be happy, which is still a possibility. A little something to hold on to: The Euro does have a higher resolution compared to the GFS, which I would think would be quite substantial with this kind of storm. I'm not sure though on average how much better the euro is in this range when compared to the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harbourton Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 It doesn't look like a pleasant night in the deep south. URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS 1245 PM CST SUN JAN 9 2011 ...SIGNIFICANT WINTER STORM ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH TONIGHT... .A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING ALONG THE GULF COAST THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT WILL COMBINE WITH VERY COLD AND INITIALLY DRY AIR ACROSS THE REGION TO PRODUCE WIDESPREAD WINTRY PRECIPITATION ACROSS NORTHEAST LOUISIANA...SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS...AND MUCH OF MISSISSIPPI. ARZ074-075-LAZ007>009-015-016-023>026-MSZ018-019-025>066-100245- /O.CON.KJAN.WS.W.0001.000000T0000Z-110110T1200Z/ ASHLEY-CHICOT-MOREHOUSE-WEST CARROLL-EAST CARROLL-RICHLAND- MADISON LA-FRANKLIN LA-CATAHOULA-TENSAS-CONCORDIA-BOLIVAR- SUNFLOWER-LEFLORE-GRENADA-CARROLL-MONTGOMERY-WEBSTER-CLAY-LOWNDES- CHOCTAW-OKTIBBEHA-WASHINGTON-HUMPHREYS-HOLMES-ATTALA-WINSTON- NOXUBEE-ISSAQUENA-SHARKEY-YAZOO-MADISON MS-LEAKE-NESHOBA-KEMPER- WARREN-HINDS-RANKIN-SCOTT-NEWTON-LAUDERDALE-CLAIBORNE-COPIAH- SIMPSON-SMITH-JASPER-CLARKE-JEFFERSON-ADAMS-FRANKLIN MS-LINCOLN- LAWRENCE-JEFFERSON DAVIS-COVINGTON-JONES- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...CROSSETT...NORTH CROSSETT...HAMBURG... WEST CROSSETT...DERMOTT...LAKE VILLAGE...EUDORA...BASTROP... OAK GROVE...EPPS...LAKE PROVIDENCE...RAYVILLE...DELHI... TALLULAH...WINNSBORO...JONESVILLE...HARRISONBURG...NEWELLTON... ST. JOSEPH...WATERPROOF...VIDALIA...FERRIDAY...WEST FERRIDAY... CLEVELAND...INDIANOLA...RULEVILLE...GREENWOOD...GRENADA... VAIDEN...NORTH CARROLLTON...CARROLLTON...WINONA...EUPORA... MABEN...MATHISTON...WEST POINT...COLUMBUS...ACKERMAN...WEIR... STARKVILLE...GREENVILLE...BELZONI...ISOLA...DURANT...TCHULA... LEXINGTON...PICKENS...GOODMAN...KOSCIUSKO...LOUISVILLE...MACON... BROOKSVILLE...MAYERSVILLE...ROLLING FORK...ANGUILLA... YAZOO CITY...RIDGELAND...MADISON...CANTON...CARTHAGE... PHILADELPHIA...PEARL RIVER...DE KALB...SCOOBA...VICKSBURG... JACKSON...PEARL...BRANDON...RICHLAND...FOREST...MORTON...NEWTON... UNION...DECATUR...CONEHATTA...MERIDIAN...PORT GIBSON... CRYSTAL SPRINGS...HAZLEHURST...WESSON...MAGEE...MENDENHALL... TAYLORSVILLE...RALEIGH...BAY SPRINGS...HEIDELBERG...QUITMAN... STONEWALL...SHUBUTA...FAYETTE...NATCHEZ...BUDE...ROXIE... MEADVILLE...BROOKHAVEN...MONTICELLO...NEW HEBRON...PRENTISS... BASSFIELD...COLLINS...MOUNT OLIVE...LAUREL 1245 PM CST SUN JAN 9 2011 ...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM CST MONDAY... A WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM CST MONDAY. * TIMING: PRECIPITATION MOSTLY IN THE FORM OF HEAVY SNOW MIXED WITH SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH TONIGHT. THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD END FROM THE WEST BETWEEN MIDNIGHT IN THE WEST TO 6 AM IN THE EAST LATE TONIGHT. * MAIN IMPACT: FOR AREAS ALONG AND NORTH OF A BASTROP LOUISIANA TO KOSCIUSKO TO MACON LINE...SNOW...MIXED WITH SLEET SHOULD BECOME ALL SNOW FROM LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT WITH 6 TO 10 INCHES OF SNOW LIKELY IN THESE AREAS NORTHWARD. FARTHER SOUTH...ALONG THE INTERSTATE 20 CORRIDOR OF AND AS FAR SOUTH AS A WISNER LOUISIANA TO PORT GIBSON TO LAUREL MISSISSIPPI LINE...A MIX OF SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN CHANGING TO MOSTLY FREEZING RAIN IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ICING OF ONE QUARTER TO THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH. THE HEAVIER ICING APPEARS THAT IT WILL STAY NORTH OF THE HIGHWAY 84 CORRIDOR. ANY SNOW THAT FALLS ON THIS ICE LATE TONIGHT WILL PUT ADDED WEIGHT TO TREES CAUSING SOME LIMBS TO FALL OR SAG ONTO POWER LINES. ROADWAYS WILL LIKELY BECOME TREACHEROUS AND TRAVEL WILL BE VERY DIFFICULT IF NOT IMPOSSIBLE. * OTHER IMPACTS: BRISK EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS OF 10 TO 25 MPH ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT. THIS COULD COMBINE WITH ACCUMULATIONS OF WET SNOW OR ICE TO RESULT IN MORE TREE AND POWER LINE DAMAGE. TEMPERATURES DIPPING INTO THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 20S WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY WIND CHILLS IN THE MIDDLE TEENS. CONDITIONS SHOULD BEGIN IMPROVING AFTER MIDDAY MONDAY BUT LOCATIONS WITH SNOW COVER WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH THE FREEZING MARK. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kingwill Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 Doubt it unless things change. It's bombing out but it's too far northeast for me. Somebody in New England is going to come in with absolutely prolific amounts. Do U think 0Z tonight and/or 12Z tomorrow can come in even stronger(aka Low Forming and bombing earlier) Like I wrote in another post I think Tonight is the Timeframe(48 hrs) where the 12/26 storm really exploded on the model runs.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof09 Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 Do U think 0Z tonight and/or 12Z tomorrow can come in even stronger(aka Low Forming and bombing earlier) Like I wrote in another post I think Tonight is the Timeframe(48 hrs) where the 12/26 storm really exploded on the model runs.. yes it is the timeframe and the trends today have been very promising for the coastal areas of the ec. this model performance is very similar to the boxing day blizzard in that the key global models started giving the southern wave more strength and the correct phase and not letting it slide ots like their previous runs. every storm is different though as are the models, but one thing i've noticed this winter season is the models not forecasting the southern stream properly till inside 60 hours of the storm then changing the tune of the track and the qpf. tonight 0z run will be very telling of where this storm is headed and 0z euro as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 From the 12z NAM for PHL, just thought I'd post cause how freaking incredible it is just in time for the morning rush hour.... where do you get such info? link please? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Noreaster07 Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 just in time for the morning rush hour.... where do you get such info? link please? http://coolwx.com/cgi-bin/getbufr.cgi?region=PA&stn=KPHL&model=nam&time=current&field=omeg Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather5 Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 yes it is the timeframe and the trends today have been very promising for the coastal areas of the ec. this model performance is very similar to the boxing day blizzard in that the key global models started giving the southern wave more strength and the correct phase and not letting it slide ots like their previous runs. every storm is different though as are the models, but one thing i've noticed this winter season is the models not forecasting the southern stream properly till inside 60 hours of the storm then changing the tune of the track and the qpf. tonight 0z run will be very telling of where this storm is headed and 0z euro as well. So are you thinking the two storms phase sooner then the models are predicting. If they do this would it pull the storm more west, so would you have to worry about mixing or would it bomb out and pull in the cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 http://coolwx.com/cg...rent&field=omeg great site. thx!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChineseFood4Snow Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 I created an account just to thank everyone here for providing so much information on these storms. I am learning a lot and enjoying the debates. In particular I'd like to thank Tombo for the outstanding pbp... Each model run is like experiencing another storm and nearly as fun as the storm itself! The tension and suspence has me glued to my various electronic devices...refresh, refresh, refresh! Ok, back to lurking... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SmokeEater Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 Just got up from working all night, can somebody give me a quick rundown on today's models? My normal updaters aren't on today, lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 Just got up from working all night, can somebody give me a quick rundown on today's models? My normal updaters aren't on today, lol. euro held steady, looks good gfs a lil drier but decent hit, esp NE of you. basically were looking at a general 6-10 in swatch from PHIL to NYC 10+ NYC to LI .... EDIT: forgot what the nam showed. ukie i believe is decent. sorry i cant be more discriptive....im kinda fried right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SmokeEater Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 euro held steady, looks good gfs a lil drier but decent hit, esp NE of you. basically were looking at a general 6-10 in swatch from PHIL to NYC 10+ NYC to LI .... Good deal, anything but a coastal hugger with mixing issues is a plus to me right now. The exacts can get worked out later. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
THEREALTOR1 Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 Most of DE is between 0.50 and 0.60" QPF The Euro runs the 0.5" QPF line from N/S along the DE/MD border. Thanks earthlight & YoRyz Ok enough with the "How much for me?" posts. Use the banter thread or your local thread to ask that, thanks. I think there's only a few of us on here from DE (probably less than 10), and there is no local thread for DE. Without getting caught up in the doom and gloom between one Regional thread to another (ie... DC-vs-PHL-vs-NYC= BS) , is it possible that the few of us that are here can get updates in the model threads? If not I understand, thats not what these threads are mean't to be, however, there really is no "banter" thread between the few DE members that we do have, we just tend to piggyback off the MA/ PH/ NY threads? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LVblizzard Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 15z SREFs coming in farther west than 9z. At 69 hours the mean has a 1000mb low at the tip of Long Island compared to just SW of Cape Cod at 9z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 euro held steady, looks good gfs a lil drier but decent hit, esp NE of you. basically were looking at a general 6-10 in swatch from PHIL to NYC 10+ NYC to LI .... EDIT: forgot what the nam showed. ukie i believe is decent. sorry i cant be more discriptive....im kinda fried right now. I'd back off those totals a little bit... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 15z SREF's look good...haven't seen the SREF's since last night so I'm not sure how it was doing in terms of portrayal of precip but it looks a lot better than last night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 I'd back off those totals a little bit... My first instinct is 5"-8" for Philly, 8-12" for NYC and the Shore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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