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NYC/PHL Potential Jan 11-14 Event Discussion Part Two


NickD2011

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Well I will take the Big 3 Euro, GFS, Nam (plus JMA) all showing a Moderate to Heavy hit over the rest. If U split the difference with the 3 most of NJ and NYC are between 8-12 with LI 12+...0z tonight and 12Z tomorrow is the timeframe where the Boxing Day storm showed an all out Blizzard..Not saying that is the case here probably moves to fast but I think this thing can even get a little wetter especially back in the Burbs of NJ into Philly and Eastern PA. Not to toot my own horn but I did call it a couple days ago and than for some reason I was put on a 5PPD ban..Anyway, All the short range models(suny MM5, WRF ect.) will come in handy by tonight and tomorrow.

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yeah i kind of thought he was saying he did not know what to believe as we where sayong diff stuff...perhaps that was kind of tru....my aplogies

No, it all made sense, just had so many different streams of info to follow at once. All were focused on different aspects. It's all good though. At least the info was disseminated to all who asked.

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Well I will take the Big 3 Euro, GFS, Nam (plus JMA) all showing a Moderate to Heavy hit over the rest. If U split the difference with the 3 most of NJ and NYC are between 8-12 with LI 12+...0z tonight and 12Z tomorrow is the timeframe where the Boxing Day storm showed an all out Blizzard..Not saying that is the case here probably moves to fast but I think this thing can even get a little wetter especially back in the Burbs of NJ into Philly and Eastern PA. Not to toot my own horn but I did call it a couple days ago and than for some reason I was put on a 5PPD ban..Anyway, All the short range models(suny MM5, WRF ect.) will come in handy by tonight and tomorrow.

The euro has bee remarkly stable for many runs now.

Rossi

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so we're looking at a 8-14" POTENTIAL snowstorm from Central Jersey to LI/SECT - lower amounts toward Philly/Central Jersey area to higher amounts from central LI on east... GENERALLY speaking..

What's interesting to me is that the 12z GFS has 0.50-0.75" liquid for the area..and the BUFKIT numbers are very low. The snow growth is poor.

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By the way...for the NYC folks..this run gets the 1" QPF line back to just west of the city near EWR. All of LI is 1"...Suffolk county 1.25".

Hate to be a pain in the azz, but for us Red Headed stepsons up here in NW NJ. What do you se for kfwn (sussex) about .60"? got screwed with the Blizz here, had 12.8 and 5 miles to my east had 22" :arrowhead:

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Hate to be a pain in the azz, but for us Red Headed stepsons up here in NW NJ. What do you se for kfwn (sussex) about .60"? got screwed with the Blizz here, had 12.8 and 5 miles to my east had 22" :arrowhead:

It brings the 0.75" close to Eastern Sussex county..Probably 0.65-0.75 for most of the county.

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Bufkit from 12z NAM and 12z GFS --- (NAM numbers lol)

RDG- 8.5" (NAM) 5.7" (GFS)

ABE- 13.7 (NAM) 5.1" (GFS)

PHL- 17.5" (NAM) 5.3" (GFS)

TTN- 15.9 (NAM) 6.1 (GFS)

ACY 3.4" (NAM) 1.9 (GFS)

JFK 20.4" (NAM) 1.9 (GFS)

EWR 23.9 (NAM) 4.7 (GFS)

HPN 25.7 (NAM) 11.1 (GFS)

trying to figure out how Reading gets more than Philly, Allentown, and Newark on the GFS. Anybody know why?

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Guest Patrick

Interesting, John...one would think that with all of the cold air available, ratios would be higher.

I do not recall any specific bias regarding the GFS and snow growth, if anything, it tends to be overdone a bit as we get close to the event.

This should give us pause.... do you have any reasonable explanation for what might cause this to be the final outcome? In other words, I know enough to ask the question, but I cannot recall any answers, aside from the placement of the primary low.

What's interesting to me is that the 12z GFS has 0.50-0.75" liquid for the area..and the BUFKIT numbers are very low. The snow growth is poor.

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