Saturn510 Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 Nice Job! How long is the general duration of the storm in the Phila/ Central NJ area? Should be about 10-14 hours... Most models had snow starting around 60 hr and lasting to 72 hrs give or take an hour or two Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kingwill Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 Well I will take the Big 3 Euro, GFS, Nam (plus JMA) all showing a Moderate to Heavy hit over the rest. If U split the difference with the 3 most of NJ and NYC are between 8-12 with LI 12+...0z tonight and 12Z tomorrow is the timeframe where the Boxing Day storm showed an all out Blizzard..Not saying that is the case here probably moves to fast but I think this thing can even get a little wetter especially back in the Burbs of NJ into Philly and Eastern PA. Not to toot my own horn but I did call it a couple days ago and than for some reason I was put on a 5PPD ban..Anyway, All the short range models(suny MM5, WRF ect.) will come in handy by tonight and tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
YoRyz Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 I know, I have Euro access myself, it's just there were so many pbp guys. I was just about to start doing it, but obviously wasn't necessary. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 I was just about to start doing it, but obviously wasn't necessary. yeah i kind of thought he was saying he did not know what to believe as we where sayong diff stuff...perhaps that was kind of tru....my aplogies Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Saturn510 Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 The full view radar of the US looks real impressive!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sferic Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 Can anyone tell me what the QPF was for the 12/26 storm for JFK and CP? Thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Noreaster07 Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 Bufkit from 12z NAM and 12z GFS --- (NAM numbers lol) RDG- 8.5" (NAM) 5.7" (GFS) ABE- 13.7 (NAM) 5.1" (GFS) PHL- 17.5" (NAM) 5.3" (GFS) TTN- 15.9 (NAM) 6.1 (GFS) ACY 3.4" (NAM) 1.9 (GFS) JFK 20.4" (NAM) 1.9 (GFS) EWR 23.9 (NAM) 4.7 (GFS) HPN 25.7 (NAM) 11.1 (GFS) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
YoRyz Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 yeah i kind of thought he was saying he did not know what to believe as we where sayong diff stuff...perhaps that was kind of tru....my aplogies No, it all made sense, just had so many different streams of info to follow at once. All were focused on different aspects. It's all good though. At least the info was disseminated to all who asked. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harbourton Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 Impresive little cranker on the water vapor loop. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alpha5 Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 Euro/NAM/GFS now all in decent agreement for a WSW event over the Upton CWA, NAM is the most robust with the QPF with over 1.25" in many places followed by the Euro with slightly less and the GFS with around .75 for most of the area. The evolution of the vort and the resulting development of the ULL will be key Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rossi Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 Well I will take the Big 3 Euro, GFS, Nam (plus JMA) all showing a Moderate to Heavy hit over the rest. If U split the difference with the 3 most of NJ and NYC are between 8-12 with LI 12+...0z tonight and 12Z tomorrow is the timeframe where the Boxing Day storm showed an all out Blizzard..Not saying that is the case here probably moves to fast but I think this thing can even get a little wetter especially back in the Burbs of NJ into Philly and Eastern PA. Not to toot my own horn but I did call it a couple days ago and than for some reason I was put on a 5PPD ban..Anyway, All the short range models(suny MM5, WRF ect.) will come in handy by tonight and tomorrow. The euro has bee remarkly stable for many runs now. Rossi Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 The euro has bee remarkly stable for many runs now. Rossi It's jumped around a good bit regarding QPF Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 KDOV-(Dover Air Force Base)- Wilmington,DE-Georgetown, DE Please? QPF's anything? Most of DE is between 0.50 and 0.60" QPF Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
YoRyz Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 KDOV-(Dover Air Force Base)- Wilmington,DE-Georgetown, DE Please? QPF's anything? The Euro runs the 0.5" QPF line from N/S along the DE/MD border. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 By the way...for the NYC folks..this run gets the 1" QPF line back to just west of the city near EWR. All of LI is 1"...Suffolk county 1.25". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
YoRyz Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 Most of DE is between 0.50 and 0.60" QPF Looks like you might see the jackpot again. The low really bombs out off the NJ shore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
YoRyz Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 QPF for Monmouth County, NJ anyone? thanks We can't do this for every county. Extrapolate the data from TTN & EWR & you should get a rough idea. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RowanBrandon Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 Any mixing issues on the EURO? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Desnowlover Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 Looks like you might see the jackpot again. The low really bombs out off the NJ shore. Thank you even more as long as its not to far North on Jerseys coast! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 so we're looking at a 8-14" POTENTIAL snowstorm from Central Jersey to LI/SECT - lower amounts toward Philly/Central Jersey area to higher amounts from central LI on east... GENERALLY speaking.. What's interesting to me is that the 12z GFS has 0.50-0.75" liquid for the area..and the BUFKIT numbers are very low. The snow growth is poor. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lab94 Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 By the way...for the NYC folks..this run gets the 1" QPF line back to just west of the city near EWR. All of LI is 1"...Suffolk county 1.25". Hate to be a pain in the azz, but for us Red Headed stepsons up here in NW NJ. What do you se for kfwn (sussex) about .60"? got screwed with the Blizz here, had 12.8 and 5 miles to my east had 22" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 Hate to be a pain in the azz, but for us Red Headed stepsons up here in NW NJ. What do you se for kfwn (sussex) about .60"? got screwed with the Blizz here, had 12.8 and 5 miles to my east had 22" It brings the 0.75" close to Eastern Sussex county..Probably 0.65-0.75 for most of the county. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 what is the QPF for TTN and EWR? dude come on...read the thread to get the reports.on QPF. Don't be so lazy. ps around inch liquid for Newark from previous post in this thread Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 what is the QPF for TTN and EWR? i think the newark totals were posted like 100 times..but heres the 101st 0.75-1.00" of QPF on the euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sunny and Warm Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 Bufkit from 12z NAM and 12z GFS --- (NAM numbers lol) RDG- 8.5" (NAM) 5.7" (GFS) ABE- 13.7 (NAM) 5.1" (GFS) PHL- 17.5" (NAM) 5.3" (GFS) TTN- 15.9 (NAM) 6.1 (GFS) ACY 3.4" (NAM) 1.9 (GFS) JFK 20.4" (NAM) 1.9 (GFS) EWR 23.9 (NAM) 4.7 (GFS) HPN 25.7 (NAM) 11.1 (GFS) trying to figure out how Reading gets more than Philly, Allentown, and Newark on the GFS. Anybody know why? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lab94 Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 It brings the 0.75" close to Eastern Sussex county..Probably 0.65-0.75 for most of the county. Thank You!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Patrick Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 Interesting, John...one would think that with all of the cold air available, ratios would be higher. I do not recall any specific bias regarding the GFS and snow growth, if anything, it tends to be overdone a bit as we get close to the event. This should give us pause.... do you have any reasonable explanation for what might cause this to be the final outcome? In other words, I know enough to ask the question, but I cannot recall any answers, aside from the placement of the primary low. What's interesting to me is that the 12z GFS has 0.50-0.75" liquid for the area..and the BUFKIT numbers are very low. The snow growth is poor. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
YoRyz Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 Thank you even more as long as its not to far North on Jerseys coast! Actually I was talking to earthlight...it develops too late on the Euro to give DE/SJ the heaviest snows. Sorry! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
YoRyz Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 trying to figure out how Reading gets more than Philly, Allentown, and Newark on the GFS. Anybody know why? It must see poor conditions for snow growth closer to the coast? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rib Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 Ok enough with the "How much for me?" posts. Use the banter thread or your local thread to ask that, thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.