NaoPos Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 Steve Dimartino's Prelim snow map: http://networkedblogs.com/cMkgK Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 Is this thread going to be split like 1/8 was? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zir0b Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 GGEM trended better at H5, not sure why it didn't translate down to the surface. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 So go with whatever the Euro shows in an hour. That is my suggestion. so let's get this straight:on today's score card GGEM/UKMET vs. GFS/Euro/SREF/GGEM ensembles vs. GFS ensembles/Euro ensembles vs. NAM light event vs. moderate event vs. moderate-heavy event vs. heavy event Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 GGEM trended better at H5, not sure why it didn't translate down to the surface. It's the Canadian. It did this during the Boxing Day storm also. Until the day before and maybe even 0z the morning of, it had the low and snow too far east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 FWIW, the 9z SREF plumes show a mean of 4" for PHL and 6" for NYC. Here is the site if you want to look it up for your location. The site is a little wonky, you have to hit all three submit buttons to get the graph. http://www.spc.nssl.noaa.gov/exper/sref/plume/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BucksCO_PA Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 Steve Dimartino's Prelim snow map: http://networkedblogs.com/cMkgK not too crazy, usually you treat his snow maps like a leftfield 18Z QPF bomb & cut the totals in half Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
XtremeWx Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 not too crazy, usually you treat his snow maps like a leftfield 18Z QPF bomb & cut the totals in half Can you please describe what the map shows? the link doesn't load for me for some reason. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 Can you please describe what the map shows? the link doesn't load for me for some reason. Anyone have the pics of the GFS ensembles, from what I see in the NE thread looks like a 8-12" storm for the area? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BucksCO_PA Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 Can you please describe what the map shows? the link doesn't load for me for some reason. 6+ Philly Metro 10+ NYC Metro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jet-Phase Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 MODEL DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD 1127 AM EST SUN JAN 09 2011 VALID JAN 09/1200 UTC THRU JAN 13/0000 UTC ...SEE NOUS42 KWNO ADMNFD FOR THE STATUS OF THE UPPER AIR INGEST... 12Z NAM AND GFS EVALUATIONS ANY INITIALIZATION ERRORS WITH THE NAM AND GFS DO NOT APPEAR TO SIGNIFICANTLY IMPACT THEIR SOLUTIONS. ...WAVE LIFTING THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST DAY 1... THE NAM IS SLIGHTLY FLATTER AND MORE SHEARED WITH THIS WAVE THAN THE GFS AND MOST RECENT EUROPEAN CENTRE GUIDANCE. ...VORTEX TRACKING ACROSS THE CENTRAL STATES DAYS 1 AND 2... THE NAM AND GFS HANDLE THIS CIRCULATION COMPARABLY TO THE MOST RECENT EUROPEAN CENTRE GUIDANCE. ...WAVE COMING INTO THE WEST COAST EARLY DAY 3... THE NAM AND GFS HANDLE THIS WAVE COMPARABLY TO THE MOST RECENT EUROPEAN CENTRE GUIDANCE. ...CYCLOGENESIS SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND DAY 3... THE NAM IS CONSIDERABLY WEST OF THE MOST RECENT EUROPEAN CENTRE GUIDANCE WITH THE DEVELOPMENT AND TRACK OF THIS LOW. THE GFS TRACKS CLOSER TO THE 00Z ECMWF...BUT IS SLIGHTLY FASTER AND LESS INTENSE. ...MODEL TREND GRAPHICS AT WWW.HPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/HTML2.SHTML... ...500 MB FORECASTS AT WWW.HPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/H5PREF/H5PREF.SHTML... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Collegestudent11 Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 Can you please describe what the map shows? the link doesn't load for me for some reason. I would say from Trenton to Freehold and North and East within Newark, and New York City, the snow is 10+ inches From western New Jersey to about central pa about 6+ West of that is 4+ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 Anyone have the pics of the GFS ensembles, from what I see in the NE thread looks like a 8-12" storm for the area? You can't really use the ensemble to get a good read on the QPF, let alone the snowfall. It's low track and 500mb evolution is very similar to the GFS ops, so all I would say is that it is confirmation of the op. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
XtremeWx Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 6+ Philly Metro 10+ NYC Metro I would say from Trenton to Freehold and North and East within Newark, and New York City, the snow is 10+ inches From western New Jersey to about central pa about 6+ West of that is 4+ Thanks I appreciate it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 GEFS individual members. They appear to be a little deeper than the OP and a few are a little further north but all in all very good agreement. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chubbs Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 Most of GFS ensembles are more amplified that OP. http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/ENSPRSNE_12z/f66.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 not too crazy, usually you treat his snow maps like a leftfield 18Z QPF bomb & cut the totals in half Most here treat them as gospel. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
listarz Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 Most here treat them as gospel. He's usually pretty good but busted big time for me last Friday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 He's usually pretty good but busted big time for me last Friday. Here is the 72 hour GFS Ensemble (from NE thread). Obvoisuly much more robust than the OP GFS. But I dont have the hour 66 (maybe tack on another 0.25" or so)? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LVblizzard Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 DT first call: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 It's unlikely for this to go too far east like the Ukmet and Nogaps depict because the blocking breaks down and the trough axis is far enough west to allow the storm to get close to the coast. Not to mention, when you have a primary located in the OV or PA, you're not going to have a secondary too far offshore Trust me, a lot of times that's how we get screwed over, because the secondary doesn't form far enough east and we get rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardlover Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 Seems 12+ may be generous along coastal areas (Eastern LI, Cape, Nantucket, Jersey shore) where mixing may be a concern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 JMA is beautiful: http://grib2.com/jma/CONUS_JMA_1000-500_SLPTHKPRP_72HR.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RutgersWx92 Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 Seems 12+ may be generous along coastal areas (Eastern LI, Cape, Nantucket, Jersey shore) where mixing may be a concern. I don't know of any model at this point that is showing mixing issues for LI and the Jersey shore. The NAM had been showing that yesterday but switched to a colder solution today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jasonli18t Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 JMA is beautiful: http://grib2.com/jma...THKPRP_72HR.gif Def looks good and takes a perfect track, but I always remind people that the JMA has a very deceptive color scheme that makes it look worse than it is. the bullseye on that map is .75-1 inch qpf. You see colors like that on other model runs and it indicates a lot more precip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 Euro out to 30... make it 36.. 1016slp by fla/sc coast.. broad..decent height rises along the coast.. northern stream digging.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 euro out to 36 hrs low pressure over north fl...1016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 Def looks good and takes a perfect track, but I always remind people that the JMA has a very deceptive color scheme that makes it look worse than it is. the bullseye on that map is .75-1 inch qpf. You see colors like that on other model runs and it indicates a lot more precip. There would be a little more after 72. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 through 42 hgts are abit higher along the coast...low pressure off the se coast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jasonli18t Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 There would be a little more after 72. I'm not sure about that. In the image the low is already passed us and the graphic indicates precip that has already fallen...i dont think very much would fall after that verbatim. Still a lovely solution, no doubt. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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