SACRUS Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 If the Canadian does this too, we are in trouble. Looks like a moderate hit, frame 66 is missing, probaly in lin with last night gfs. Even if the ggem is east, go with the ecm/gfs blend, then gfs/nam within 54 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 If the Canadian does this too, we are in trouble. Come on. UKIE is always east. It's a terrible model for east coast of North America. It's verification scores are good globally. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 Come on. UKIE is always east. It's a terrible model for east coast of North America. It's verification scores are good globally. Especialliy this year, even within 24 hours it was prgressive with the 26th storm. I like the ecm and the ensembles mod to significant hit for the area general 4 - 8, 5- 10 deal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jet-Phase Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 Were the EC 0z members closer to the coast? By the way, the NOGAPS is pretty much out to sea. That is pretty funny to see as it was the only model depicting something closer to what all of the other models are now showing.....and it did this for something like 10 straight runs. What a garbage model if this storm produces what is now being projected. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alpha5 Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 Come on. UKIE is always east. It's a terrible model for east coast of North America. It's verification scores are good globally. It was OTS with the Boxing Day blizzard until a day or so before the storm hit...even when all the other models were showing a MECS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Analog96 Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 Come on. UKIE is always east. It's a terrible model for east coast of North America. It's verification scores are good globally. VERY good point! That's why I keep saying we can't look at hemispheric verification scores and apply them to our own backyard. Maybe it does GREAT in other parts of the NHem. But it's horrible on the East Coast of the CONUS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 That is pretty funny to see as it was the only model depicting something closer to what all of the other models are now showing.....and it did this for something like 10 straight runs. What a garbage model if it this storm produces what is now being projected. Looks like GFS has some sortive light to moderate event for next weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Analog96 Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 That is pretty funny to see as it was the only model depicting something closer to what all of the other models are now showing.....and it did this for something like 10 straight runs. What a garbage model if this storm produces what is now being projected. Actually, it kind of reminds me of the ECMWF before the Boxing Day Blizzard, just sayin! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 So far the GGEM looks pretty weak with the storm... http://collaboration.cmc.ec.gc.ca/cmc/cmdn/pcpn_type/pcpn_type_gem_reg.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 UKMET flops around all the time like this, and anyone using the NOGAPS to forecast= I wouldn't worry at all unless the Euro makes a major shift like this today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hudsonvalley21 Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY 1123 AM EST SUN JAN 9 2011 .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... -- Changed Discussion --MAIN FOCUS REMAINS ON THE STORM FOR LATE TUE INTO WED. LATEST 12Z DATA CONTINUES TO HONE IN ON A TRACK WHICH WOULD HAVE A SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON MOST IF NOT ALL OF THE CWA. HWO INDICATES AN INCREASE IN CONFIDENCE. HAVE INTRODUCED A MIX WITH RAIN ACROSS EXTREME ERN LI AS THE TRACK HAS TRENDED SLIGHTLY WWD. IT SHOULD BE NOTED HOWEVER THAT THE MAJORITY OF THE SOLUTIONS INDICATE ONLY A PERIOD OF MIXING OR CHANGEOVER...AS OPPOSED TO A MAINLY RAIN EVENT. DEPTH OF THE SYSTEM STILL UNRESOLVED AS WELL. ECMWF IS MUCH DEEPER...WHICH WOULD RESULT IN STRONGER WINDS. SUBTROPICAL TAP ALREADY EVIDENT ON WATER VAPOR...SO MODELS MAY BE SLIGHTLY LOW ON AVAILABLE MOISTURE. STORM EXITS LATE WED WITH FAIR WEATHER THRU FRI. MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT IN BRINGING IN AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE AND LIGHT PCPN LATE SAT AND SAT NIGHT. HAVE KEPT THE SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SNOW IN THE FCST.-- End Changed Discussion -- Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 Candian looks to be west on its 12z run After the light/mod evetn next weekend, GFS sets up an arctic surge at hour 300... 850's in the -20 to -25 range during the timeframe... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 Ukie is a horribe model even though it's the number 2 model Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chubbs Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 GEM looks pretty good so far. Closed 500mb low inear cincinnatti at 60. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Analog96 Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 Ukie is a horribe model even though it's the number 2 model It's the number 2 model in the Northern hemisphere. That doesn't necessarily mean it's the #2 model here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 GEM looks pretty good so far. Closed 500mb low inear cincinnatti at 60. East...light qpf at 72 for coast... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 East...light qpf at 72 for coast... 0.25 - 0.50 for the area, more east before LI/NE do very well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chubbs Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 East...light qpf at 72 for coast... Yeah. Ended up a little SE of its 00z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 0.25 - 0.50 for the area, more east before LI/NE do very well. Yeah, east of GFS, I should have stated. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 GGEM has always been east with this storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jet-Phase Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 GGEM has always been east with this storm. Actually, it showed a coastal hugger earlier in the week for a time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 GGEM has always been east with this storm. It started going east 00z sat, it was very bullish thu/fri. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 GFS ensembles track the low over Nantucket, west of the OP. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 GGEM remained about the same as 0Z. No significant changes here... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chubbs Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 GGEM remained about the same as 0Z. No significant changes here... Yeah not much change in GFS or GEM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 Well, it all comes down to the Euro. I am going with whatever the Euro shows at this point. Period. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 I like the NAM 12z run. After this run the longer range looks interesting again but its long range model watching Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stephen Turner Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 NOAA has rain for all of Coastal NJ for all of Tuesday Night. do these models agree? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
isnice Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 so let's get this straight:on today's score card GGEM/UKMET vs. GFS/Euro/SREF/GGEM ensembles vs. GFS ensembles/Euro ensembles vs. NAM light event vs. moderate event vs. moderate-heavy event vs. heavy event Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Analog96 Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 NOAA has rain for all of Coastal NJ for all of Tuesday Night. do these models agree? Not really, unless they're exclusively hugging the NAM from yesterday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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