tombo82685 Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 now it looks better at hr 63, more northern stream, coastal takes over faster still wont be as juicy as nam is, but better than 6z gfs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 On 1/9/2011 at 3:52 PM, tombo82685 said: the gfs looks exactly the same as 6z through 51, so who knows if the nam is right or not. It does look like the northern stream may be a little quicker. GFS 12Z at t=48h, VS. 6Z GFS at t=54h. Carbon Copy, anyone? 12Z NAM already had a closed Low P... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cleetussnow Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 On 1/9/2011 at 3:55 PM, Jefflaw77 said: It's always great when one of the best come out and give their feed back.... I'll never forget WX/PT's posts back just days before the blizzard of 96 on the AOL weather boards... Yeah me too, well since 97-98 at least....Typical short and to the point post above. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 Well, GFS is east, unlike the NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
joey Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 On 1/9/2011 at 3:52 PM, tombo82685 said: the gfs looks exactly the same as 6z through 51, so who knows if the nam is right or not. It does look like the northern stream may be a little quicker. Looks a tad more amped up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 hr 69 .25+ for all of us so far Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 On 1/9/2011 at 3:51 PM, tombo82685 said: 13.7 Not bad. Looking at gradients, back my way to the NW, it could be somewhere in the 6-10 range on this run. Thanks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadojay Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 GFS generally has .50 - .75 in QPF in NYC metro and .25 - .50 in philly metro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 We have a hit, folks. Precip came W of 6Z and 0Z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 Compared to 0z, the GFS is about the same but stronger. This run is improved. Still east of the NAM but this trended stronger between 0z and now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 hr 75 its .50+ from ewr east...and .25+ west of there... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 On 1/9/2011 at 3:59 PM, tornadojay said: GFS generally has .50 - .75 in QPF in NYC metro and .25 - .50 in philly metro seems a tad slower to me...more tue night into wed storm now for nyc... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kwt Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 Whilst perhaps not the same a smaller but somewhat similar synoptic set-up occured over NW Europe, esp S.UK in Early December, generally the models went for a 4-6 inch max in general but when the system actually developed the models rather badly underestimated the actual snowfall, ended up with widespread 8-12 inches. Now I wouldn't be surprised if it evolves in a similar way for you guys, providing it doesn't end up getting adjusted too far east of course! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 Alex is prob close to .75+ on long island and from william/east close to a inch+ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 On 1/9/2011 at 4:03 PM, Allsnow said: Alex is prob close to .75+ on long island and from william/east close to a inch+ GFS .5"-.75" for most of the Metro. Not too bad... If one model gives 6-9" and the other is 12"+...Ill be happy with either... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rossi Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 On 1/9/2011 at 4:07 PM, Zelocita Weather said: GFS .5"-.75" for most of the Metro. Not too bad... If one model gives 6-9" and the other is 12"+...Ill be happy with either... I think the ratios maybe real good with this storm Rossi Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Patrick Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 I think there are a few general takeaways from the 12z suite so far: 1) The Tuesday evening commute should be clear for most folks...perhaps light snow breaking out in the philly area toward the end of the commute. This looks to be really cranking up between 60 -66... Wednesday will be the highest impact day across the metro area, especially NY. 2) See Wxoutlooks quote above about the GOM/Atlantic moisture feed/duration. Even without the CCB cranking, a general 8" + thumping is becoming more likely. 3) The west trends we saw last night on the models were likely overdone, and the greater risk continues to be a sharp cutoff of the heaviest precip just offshore, perhaps impacting long island and the far N/E suburbs of NY the most. On 1/9/2011 at 4:07 PM, Zelocita Weather said: GFS .5"-.75" for most of the Metro. Not too bad... If one model gives 6-9" and the other is 12"+...Ill be happy with either... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jet-Phase Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 I'm not sure if anyone would know this: at this range, does the NAM outperform the GFS in general? Does it fluctuate based on pattern, winter, etc.? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 Well the ratios will definitely bot be great with this storm. Prob 10:1 or 12:1 for most Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chubbs Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 Not much change in GFS. Have to discount the NAM until it gets some confirmation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 NAM is out of its range at this point for the storm. NAM was designed to be up to 48 hours out, maybe 60. Can't really trust it at this range. Some meteorologists have said that the NAM at 84 hours is equivalent to the GFS at 180 hrs. On 1/9/2011 at 4:15 PM, Jet-Phase said: I'm not sure if anyone would know this: at this range, does the NAM outperform the GFS in general? Does it fluctuate based on pattern, winter, etc.? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof09 Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 Well as stated earlier by a few people the moisture inflow from the atlantic and subtropical jet are gonna enhance the qpf on future model runs maybe not as much as the nam but the gfs was a step in the right direction in comparison to the nam. The euro should be the key model that shows if the nam is onto something or having a hiccup. Anyone agree? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 Nothing wrong with the GFS. Moderate snowfall for the area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 On 1/9/2011 at 4:18 PM, blizzardof09 said: Well as stated earlier by a few people the moisture inflow from the atlantic and subtropical jet are gonna enhance the qpf on future model runs maybe not as much as the nam but the gfs was a step in the right direction in comparison to the nam. The euro should be the key model that shows if the nam is onto something or having a hiccup. Anyone agree? I'll probably be proved wrong simply because I am saying this, but I'm not expecting much change in the 12z Euro compared to 0z last night, at least for our area. There's hardly any spread in the 0z members. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 On 1/9/2011 at 4:19 PM, Snow88 said: Nothing wrong with the GFS. Moderate snowfall for the area. Yep, and plus the Low Pressure was stronger than the previous run. Overall, a nice trend on the 12Z GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 Were the EC 0z members closer to the coast? By the way, the NOGAPS is pretty much out to sea. On 1/9/2011 at 4:19 PM, am19psu said: I'll probably be proved wrong simply because I am saying this, but I'm not expecting much change in the 12z Euro compared to 0z last night, at least for our area. There's hardly any spread in the 0z members. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 On 1/9/2011 at 4:20 PM, Snowlover123 said: Yep, and plus the Low Pressure was stronger than the previous run. Overall, a nice trend on the 12Z GFS. Compared to 0z, it's about the same as it passes Jersey and a little weaker as it passes New England. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 On 1/9/2011 at 4:21 PM, 1234abc said: Were the 0z members closer to the coast? I only have spag charts for H5 and H85, but the spread looked to be normally distributed about the ensemble mean, which was nearly 100% in line with the op. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 UK very east and much quicker http://weather.uwyo.edu/models/fcst/images/2011010912.f048.500.p06inonepmsltmpcnone.uslcc.ukmet.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 the UK and nogaps are east and you're worried? On 1/9/2011 at 4:27 PM, 1234abc said: If the Canadian does this too, we are in trouble. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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