TheTrials Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 Anyone looking for "backup" or "support" for this solution, take a look at the 6z gfs ensembles. More robust than the gfs OP and several with a track to the NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 It deepens to 985 mb over Nantucket at 78 hrs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 The question remains, can we trust the NAM at this range? It is hard to believe it is so different than all the other guidance and we have all seen the NAM do this before at this range. Caution is necessary. yup, totally agreed and stated this earlier. It was just 12 hrs ago everyone was all upset about mixing issues and what not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 Precip maximum off ewall appears to be 1.87" over Huntington area of LI. NYC is 1.25"-1.50" 1"+ for Philly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 12km wrf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jdt Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 The question remains, can we trust the NAM at this range? It is hard to believe it is so different than all the other guidance and we have all seen the NAM do this before at this range. Caution is necessary. Definitely more amped up then past two runs. Just subtle differences aloft can transfer to significant sensible differences at the surface. 12z Hits us all good. Still heaviest east but a solid 8-12"+ event for just about everyone verbatim on the NAM. Still some wiggle room for this system to go either way. So I still stick with my thoughts from yesterday of a 4-8" type event with up 12" quite possible in whatever ends up the favored area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzardo Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 i am a pain in the a$, but 'blah blah blah blah'. No one should "trust" ANY model at this point. but it's very relieving to see this at 60-70 hours instead of 160 !!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 Models are beginning to play catch up to what is really beginning to unfold on the water vapor - 12 - 18 inches plus for NYC metro is still on the table ..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzardo Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 Models are beginning to play catch up to what is really beginning to unfold on the water vapor - 12 - 18 inches plus for NYC metro is still on the table ..... And this is EXACTLY what my thinking is... 12+ all the way ! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JTA66 Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 The question remains, can we trust the NAM at this range? It is hard to believe it is so different than all the other guidance and we have all seen the NAM do this before at this range. Caution is necessary. I think its always safe to be skeptical of the NAM's more robust qpf solutions, unless there's support from other models. Let's see if the NAM just coughed up a fur ball or if other guidance starts to follow along. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bilas Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 Like I said yesterday and I am by no means a expert just a very basic novice when it comes to weather systems, (trying to learn from the good people here) the models were bound to wobble from run to run and as we get closer to the event and we see where the players are going to be we will get a better idea what and where the storm will track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rossi Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 Models are beginning to play catch up to what is really beginning to unfold on the water vapor - 12 - 18 inches plus for NYC metro is still on the table ..... I argree completely - I think all the models catch on today and by 00z we have consensus or close. Rossi Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 I think its always safe to be skeptical of the NAM's more robust qpf solutions, unless there's support from other models. Let's see if the NAM just coughed up a fur ball or if other guidance starts to follow along. agreed 100 % have to keep all options open at this point BUT climatology and recent history this winter has shown that a Major snowstorm and possibly historical cannot be taken off the table yet ..... think one of the problems is maybe some folks are skeptical about having 2 historical storms in one winter so close together BUT extremes have been common for the last couple of years - in all seasons in the U.S including the mid- atlantic - northeast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alpha5 Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 Convection down south looks impressive....Upton mentioned this in their disco SUBTROPICAL TAP ALREADY EVIDENT ON WATER VAPOR...SO MODELS MAY BESLIGHTLY LOW ON AVAILABLE MOISTURE. Perhaps the NAM is catching on to something? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof09 Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 I would like to see if anyone agrees with me? The boxing day storm was almost the exact same way as far as forecasting the event the models underestimated the strength and overall dominance of the southern stream and phasing seems like the same exact thing is going on here, impressive for long island to say the least looks like here it will top the boxing day blizzard Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LVblizzard Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 I would like to see if anyone agrees with me? The boxing day storm was almost the exact same way as far as forecasting the event the models underestimated the strength and overall dominance of the southern stream and phasing seems like the same exact thing is going on here, impressive for long island to say the least looks like here it will top the boxing day blizzard If the models are underestimating the phasing, then wouldn't that argue for a farther west track? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 clown map from the 12z nam Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzardo Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 I would like to see if anyone agrees with me? The boxing day storm was almost the exact same way as far as forecasting the event the models underestimated the strength and overall dominance of the southern stream and phasing seems like the same exact thing is going on here, impressive for long island to say the least looks like here it will top the boxing day blizzard I definitely agree. Lets see if the rest of the 12z mods start to catch up ! After what happen down in DC and Philly last winter, Multiple HECS in a short time frame are very possible Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 clown map from the 12z nam I would asssume you feel the NAM is out to lunch on this ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 I would asssume you feel the NAM is out to lunch on this ? no, i would, as others have been saying just hold off on taking it seriously until other models show this and it shows repetitive runs. Remember just 12 hrs ago we were all bashing cause it would bring ptype issue to basically 95. Now everyone is humping it like a dog on a new established fire hydrant. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwinter23 Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 dam you guys are getting hammered tis winter Premature congratulations.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
_AR_ Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 no, i would, as others have been saying just hold off on taking it seriously until other models show this and it shows repetitive runs. Remember just 12 hrs ago we were all bashing cause it would bring ptype issue to basically 95. Now everyone is humping it like a dog on a new established fire hydrant. Agreed. Model hugging warnings have been in effect since mid december. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 I thought the models keyed in on the GOM feed ok, its the timing and location of the transfer and coastal development thats our key PHL-NYC. But it is juicy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder Road Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 0.91" KPNE 0.84" KPHL very nice run. that said, can we cool it with the talk of another HECS, and 12-18 and whatnot? It's one run of the NAM outside 60 hours! Yes, I could see the gulf moisture being better sampled. But that is NOT the main reason that we see more snow. We see more snow because the coastal closes off faster, causing it to be farther west and develop a CCB sooner. This is not simply a case of more gulf moisture = more snow! If more of the 12z suite comes around, then I'll get excited, but for now let's not lose our heads, okay? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzardo Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 Lets see what Mr. GFS spits out in a little while.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harbourton Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 Waters off the SE Texas coast are feeling the effects. According to the models this storm will have to undergo some serious weakening before turning up coast. SYNOPSIS FOR HIGH ISLAND TO MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 60 NM... A DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH THE UPPER TEXAS COASTAL WATERS THIS MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON. STRONG EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED AS THIS SYSTEM APPROACHES AND THEN MODERATE NORTHERLY FLOW WILL OCCUR IN THE WAKE OF THE SYSTEM LATE SUNDAY. GUSTS TO GALE FORCE WINDS WILL BE COMMONPLACE OVER THE GULF WATERS THROUGH MID DAY TODAY. WIDESPREAD RAIN WILL ACCOMPANY THE STORM COMPLEX INCLUDING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. A FAST MOVING WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IN THE WAKE OF THE SYSTEM WILL GIVE WAY TO A MUCH COLDER AIR MASS LATE MONDAY NIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY WITH PERSISTENT OFFSHORE FLOW EXPECTED. $$ GMZ375-092230- WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT 20 TO 60 NM- 342 AM CST SUN JAN 9 2011 GALE WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 2 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 2 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS EVENING TODAY SOUTHEAST WINDS 20 TO 30 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 40 KNOTS BECOMING WEST 20 TO 30 KNOTS IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 8 TO 10 FEET SUBSIDING TO 6 TO 9 FEET IN THE AFTERNOON. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE MORNING...THEN A CHANCE OF RAIN IN THE AFTERNOON. SOME THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE SEVERE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jdt Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 I would asssume you feel the NAM is out to lunch on this ? I would just consider as one of the possible options skewed to one side of the options envelope of possibilities. For now live in the middle ground till it is more certain which way this will lean in the end. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 I do think that models will recognize the weaker primary and give more emphasis on the secondary. Given the fact that it's packed with gulf moisture and will be over the gulf stream, I wouldn't be surprised if we get another MECS out of this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 0.91" KPNE 0.84" KPHL very nice run. that said, can we cool it with the talk of another HECS, and 12-18 and whatnot? It's one run of the NAM outside 60 hours! Yes, I could see the gulf moisture being better sampled. But that is NOT the main reason that we see more snow. We see more snow because the coastal closes off faster, causing it to be farther west and develop a CCB sooner. This is not simply a case of more gulf moisture = more snow! If more of the 12z suite comes around, then I'll get excited, but for now let's not lose our heads, okay? If you re -read my posts - I said keep all options open and keep it on the table - didn't say it was going to verify............Heck Upton is even saying 1 " qpf is possible Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
joey Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 Hello people, but the southern disturbance has nothing to do with the storm Tuesday night- Wed. The vort gets sheered out. Stop talking, as if the increasing moisture will affect the Tuesday storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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