ChescoWx Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 Hi Ralph, I agree with the most part with your thinking but...I expect a closer to the coast solution and a little more qpf as we near the event. I would bet 3 to 6 across PHL with 4 to 8" North and West including Allentown and Tamaqua. Just my 2cents... Gonna stick with my original thinking from yesterday for immediate PHL area....classic, run-of-the-mill, cimatologically reasonable, (insert own adjective) storm with secondary development happening off the DelMarVa just late enough to spare the area the 'brunt' of the event. A general 2-5"/3-6" storm, snow/mix/rain line I95 South and East....lighter accums at shore points in South Jersey, higher accums North of the city. I'll take it in a heartbeat. We've become spoiled here and accustomed to the big storms over the past year or so but these types of systems are the norm in most winters and where we 'used to' pick up the majority of our seasonal snowfall. Being 42-48 hours out still, I suppose the track and QPF will go through fluctuations, but when all is said and done, looks like an average seasonal winter event here in the immediate PHL area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 looks very active at this point Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzardo Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 looks very active at this point your talking about the gulf ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmb8021 Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 From Upton: .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... MAIN FOCUS REMAINS ON THE STORM FOR LATE TUE INTO WED. 00Z DATA HONING IN ON A TRACK WHICH WOULD HAVE A SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON MOST IF NOT ALL OF THE CWA. HWO INDICATES AN INCREASE IN CONFIDENCE. ENSEMBLES AND OPERATIONAL RUNS SHOW DECENT CLUSTERING. HAVE INTRODUCED A MIX WITH RAIN ACROSS EXTREME ERN LI AS THE TRACK HAS TRENDED SLIGHTLY WWD. IT SHOULD BE NOTED HOWEVER THAT THE MAJORITY OF THE SOLUTIONS INDICATE ONLY A PERIOD OF MIXING OR CHANGEOVER...AS OPPOSED TO A MAINLY RAIN EVENT. DEPTH OF THE SYSTEM STILL UNRESOLVED AS WELL. ECMWF IS MUCH DEEPER...WHICH WOULD RESULT IN STRONGER WINDS. SUBTROPICAL TAP ALREADY EVIDENT ON WATER VAPOR...SO MODELS MAY BE SLIGHTLY LOW ON AVAILABLE MOISTURE. STORM EXITS LATE WED WITH FAIR WEATHER THRU FRI. MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT IN BRINGING IN AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE AND LIGHT PCPN LATE SAT AND SAT NIGHT. HAVE KEPT THE SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SNOW IN THE FCST. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harbourton Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 The radar presentation of the STJ disturbance at this point is better than the 12-26 STJ disturbance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 From Upton: .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... MAIN FOCUS REMAINS ON THE STORM FOR LATE TUE INTO WED. 00Z DATA HONING IN ON A TRACK WHICH WOULD HAVE A SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON MOST IF NOT ALL OF THE CWA. HWO INDICATES AN INCREASE IN CONFIDENCE. ENSEMBLES AND OPERATIONAL RUNS SHOW DECENT CLUSTERING. HAVE INTRODUCED A MIX WITH RAIN ACROSS EXTREME ERN LI AS THE TRACK HAS TRENDED SLIGHTLY WWD. IT SHOULD BE NOTED HOWEVER THAT THE MAJORITY OF THE SOLUTIONS INDICATE ONLY A PERIOD OF MIXING OR CHANGEOVER...AS OPPOSED TO A MAINLY RAIN EVENT. DEPTH OF THE SYSTEM STILL UNRESOLVED AS WELL. ECMWF IS MUCH DEEPER...WHICH WOULD RESULT IN STRONGER WINDS. SUBTROPICAL TAP ALREADY EVIDENT ON WATER VAPOR...SO MODELS MAY BE SLIGHTLY LOW ON AVAILABLE MOISTURE. STORM EXITS LATE WED WITH FAIR WEATHER THRU FRI. MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT IN BRINGING IN AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE AND LIGHT PCPN LATE SAT AND SAT NIGHT. HAVE KEPT THE SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SNOW IN THE FCST. Latest GFS clown snow map has the 2" snow line from just east of PHL NNE to Sandy Hook and then over W/C LI. So yeah Im assuming its picking up on boundary issues there, pretty small area of 6" or so in Bergen, Morris, Passaic, Sussex counties. PHL =3" NYC = 4-5". Even New England sees noone over 7-8"... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
goombatommy Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 your talking about the gulf ? It's exploding on radar atm. Looks very juicy and mean. Going to be interesting to see what this thing brings up with it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzardo Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 What happen at 0z ? Late phase or the models go east ? Yesterday was a coastal hugger. I woke up this am to Jeff Smith saying 3-6 for NYC and I kind of chuckled.. I think thats a lowball cast myself unless 12z today shows east. It does look like the gulf is being tapped with the southern stream. I am expecting to see double digit accumulations in NE NJ but we will see... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzardo Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 It's exploding on radar atm. Looks very juicy and mean. Going to be interesting to see what this thing brings up with it. my first thought when I seen that.. It is DEF. juiced !! If the track is good, I see much higher qpf as we close in... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harbourton Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 Already down to 1004mb and tapping GOM moisture. Energy diving in from the north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
goombatommy Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 my first thought when I seen that.. It is DEF. juiced !! If the track is good, I see much higher qpf as we close in... Indeed. I'm also wondering what the potential for Thundersnow will be like especially LI and along the coast. Normally myself and the rest of ABE, MTP, N and W cry with these storms and get the shaft - but this may look to bring us more than a 1 - 3" event finally this season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 Latest Wxsim with 6z data has light snow arriving in the NW Philadelphia burbs at 3pm on tuesday becoming moderate by 9pm and heavy by midnight...snow then tapers off to flurries by 5am. Total snowfall 3 or 4" (0.33" qpf) This is heavily influenced by the 6z runs and I expect 12z to begin a ramp up of precip a bit and get us into the 0.5 to 0.6" range for a nice modest snow event Certainly been a great winter for winter weather enthusiasts here in the Philly area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LVblizzard Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 9z SREF mean has the CCB over NJ/NYC going into SNE. Everywhere else gets a solid 3-6". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kpantz Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 I'm tempering my enthusiasm for the impressive Gulf display ATM. Recalling that the associated shortwave is progged to dampen out over the next 48 hrs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gkrangers Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 I'm tempering my enthusiasm for the impressive Gulf display ATM. Recalling that the associated shortwave is progged to dampen out over the next 48 hrs. Yeah, despite how impressive it is right now, this isn't really "our" storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shades Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 I'm tempering my enthusiasm for the impressive Gulf display ATM. Recalling that the associated shortwave is progged to dampen out over the next 48 hrs. Very true, important to remember that the precip associated with the energy moving through the Gulf now is going to wash itself out by the time it reaches the mid-atlantic, focusing too much on that will lead to weather weenies looking for Demerol rather than radar trends by tomorrow. This beast will arrive from redevelopment, not anything we see on the radar maps right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 IMO 6 - 12 for NYC metro should be the call and then Tuesday fine tune it . Also Upton has a 40 % chance of snow during the day Tuesday - BUT according to most guidance the precip doesn't start until after 18Z closer to 21Z so that should be reworded to snow developing toward evening................ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzardo Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 Yeah, despite how impressive it is right now, this isn't really "our" storm. I can see that draggin it's azz over the gulf, filling it's tanks with qpf, getting to the AO, turning the corner and head N to dump it's load on NE NJ and NYC... Classic Miller A style.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 I'm seeing a lot of posts pointing out the current radar returns in the Gulf States...remember, this is the first wave that gets sheared apart and off the SE coast per models. It's the batch back in the Northern Plains associated with the ULL and redevelopment off the DelMarVa which is where the moisture for the actual 'storm' will come from. If anything, we should be rooting for this first wave to fizzle and dry out as it will steal a lot of the moisture from the main show. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 I'm seeing a lot of posts pointing out the current radar returns in the Gulf States...remember, this is the first wave that gets sheared apart and off the SE coast per models. It's the batch back in the Northern Plains associated with the ULL and redevelopment off the DelMarVa which is where the moisture for the actual 'storm' will come from. If anything, we should be rooting for this first wave to fizzle and dry out as it will steal a lot of the moisture from the main show. You'd rather the southern energy absorb the ULL energy and remain the dominant low. Otherwise the ULL may help pop a surface low in the OV drag mild air aloft along the coastal plain, leading to a slopfest. The Euro has been consistent on playing up the southern energy and limiting the ULL's chances to run its energy through the Lakes. IOW, root for and ride the Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 and dont tell me Im hallucinating.... Anyways.. NAM should be rollin', anyone got a line on it ? thru 42, FWIW, the NAM is a fewf mb deeper and a touch west with the surface reflection compared to 0z. it's coming off the carolinas though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ParanormalWx Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 I'm seeing a lot of posts pointing out the current radar returns in the Gulf States...remember, this is the first wave that gets sheared apart and off the SE coast per models. It's the batch back in the Northern Plains associated with the ULL and redevelopment off the DelMarVa which is where the moisture for the actual 'storm' will come from. If anything, we should be rooting for this first wave to fizzle and dry out as it will steal a lot of the moisture from the main show. That's how Dec 26th happened. Southern stream was much stronger then the models had and then the 12z GFS caught it 2 days out....where we are today. P.S. Not saying that's going to happen tho. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chubbs Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 Southern low a little stronger on 12z NAM. Not sheared out as much at 30. This may lead to a faster coastal development. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzardo Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 Yes, I would like to see that southern stream remain the dominant low and everything else transfer it's energy into that turning into a coastal bomb that slowly rides N,NE .. I assume it's possible ? roughly 60 hrs. out from the start so we should get good sampling of whats going on on these next runs and start to zero in on this puppy ! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 The "low" in the OV is weaker on this run of the NAM thru 48. Definite surface reflection off of the Carolinas. The coastal low is stronger than the output on the 0z GFS at the same time frame. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 Some changes so far thru 60. Keep in mind hasn't hit Philly yet. *850 0 line still nudges up the coast ahead of the coastal but the backside is colder because the coastal is stronger on this run. *the OV low is a bit weaker and faster. *the coastal is slow...not as slow as 0z NAM but still slower than the GFS. The coast looks like it will have some ptype issues on this run but folks west/north of 95 look good. Better than 0z's NAM run at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 good trend on the nbam through 63, keeps the coastal stronger, earlier transfer. Hr 63 has the ccb starting to get going just south of phl Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LVblizzard Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 Coastal hugger at 63 with a developing CCB over the region. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 good trend on the nbam through 63, keeps the coastal stronger, earlier transfer. Hr 63 has the ccb starting to get going just south of phl 850 line gets to about Cape May. Probably a good 30-40 mile shift south on the 850. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chubbs Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 Coastal stronger and developing faster. Good trends for E pa. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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