earthlight Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 CCB tries developing pretty much over the area at 78 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 I wouldn't care as much, but it's interesting how it looks exactly like the ECMWF/GFS/GGEM..with the GFS the east outlier of the group. If the ECM is the same as the NAM, I'm surprised NYC still gets close to 1" QPF. That's a pretty quickly developing storm given the positioning of the primary. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 78 hour...graphical Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 If the ECM is the same as the NAM, I'm surprised NYC still gets close to 1" QPF. That's a pretty quickly developing storm given the positioning of the primary. NYC actually gets close to 0.75" on the Euro..not 1" And the 06z NAM has less than 0.50" through 81 hrs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 CCB developing into SNE now at 81 hours..this is going to be a great run for them Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 84 hr total QPF is 0.50" over NYC and east over LI and touching the NJ Shore. Amazingly enough, in line with the SREF'S and GFS OP as well as the Euro ensemble mean. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 CCB developing into SNE now at 81 hours..this is going to be a great run for them Nice CCB banding on the last frame...NYC gets into it too...looks like about 8" snowfall verbatim for where I live. SNE is going to get pounded but temperatures might be questionable on this run in SE CT, S RI, and SE Mass. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 Some hopefully similar CCB developments from coastal storms w/ primaries recently (a little east of these of course): http://www.njfreeways.com/weather/2003/25-Dec-02-RegionalRadarImagery.html http://www.njfreeways.com/weather/2007/14-Feb-07-RegionalRadarImagery.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattinpa Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 78 hour...graphical You'd think with that low off NJ that the precip field could expand in later runs, right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 You can see the SREF members developing the CCB rapidly..but too late for this area. Hopefully we get some positive trends tomorrow. I'm out..about to pass out. Later dudes! http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/SREF21PRSNE_3z/f81.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 LI special on the nam. LI takes a nice hit with around .75" QPF. Back towards NYC, it's a moderate event with .5"-.6" QPF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ababa Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 Id take the .75 the euro is giving right now and gladly take it. Nam is a good run and just amazing model consensus for this storm. The wednesday am rush is gonna b a huge mess Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 LI takes a nice hit with around .75" QPF. Back towards NYC, it's a moderate event with .5"-.6" QPF. Really starts bombing it out just in time for E NJ on north. Boston still might have ptype issues with the low tucking in near Block Island and the 850 low right overhead. But it clobbers E CT and central Mass tremendously. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 Really starts bombing it out just in time for E NJ on north. Boston still might have ptype issues with the low tucking in near Block Island and the 850 low right overhead. But it clobbers E CT and central Mass tremendously. Looks like we have a consensus for a Block Island to Bench Mark track and somewhere between .5 and 1 inch qpf out here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 LI takes a nice hit with around .75" QPF. Back towards NYC, it's a moderate event with .5"-.6" QPF. Still think the models are underdone with qpf? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 Still think the models are underdone with qpf? I don't think this is a huge QPF event for NYC since the coastal is relatively late to bloom and is not coming directly from the Gulf; also, the system has a rapid NE movement without much of a stall. That being said, the ECM having .75" QPF for NYC and over 1" for BOS is a warning sign for a juicier event since it tends to be paltry with precip at this range. Also, one has to remember that the QPF is never as evenly distributed in any Nor'easter as models show...there are usually one to two intense bands that deliver 125-150% of expected QPF and then the people outside those get like 75% of modeled precipitation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 06Z RGEM a little deeper with the coastal low than the 06Z NAM at 48 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 I don't think this is a huge QPF event for NYC since the coastal is relatively late to bloom and is not coming directly from the Gulf; also, the system has a rapid NE movement without much of a stall. That being said, the ECM having .75" QPF for NYC and over 1" for BOS is a warning sign for a juicier event since it tends to be paltry with precip at this range. Also, one has to remember that the QPF is never as evenly distributed in any Nor'easter as models show...there are usually one to two intense bands that deliver 125-150% of expected QPF and then the people outside those get like 75% of modeled precipitation. Yea, this has been our experience over the last few years especially-- and we get that horrible subsidence between the bands that gives us like half the snow everyone else gets who's in the band lol. For some reason, I remember storms from a few years ago were more consistent in terms of overall qpf across the region-- storms like Feb 83, Mar 93, Feb 94, Jan 96, PD2. Most of the big storms from the last few years have featured much more banding and variable totals. Has that been your experience too? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 Yea, this has been our experience over the last few years especially-- and we get that horrible subsidence between the bands that gives us like half the snow everyone else gets who's in the band lol. For some reason, I remember storms from a few years ago were more consistent in terms of overall qpf across the region-- storms like Feb 83, Mar 93, Feb 94, Jan 96, PD2. Most of the big storms from the last few years have featured much more banding and variable totals. Has that been your experience too? Probably because they were stronger storms, weaker systems like a 12/5/02 or a 2/6/03 will usually have uniform snow amounts as mesoscale bands either do not develop or they are very short lived...big systems tends to have those 2 or 3 mesoscale bands that cause crazy variations.....2/83 was relatively uniform in its totals but then again so was 12/19/09 which generally amounts went up as you went S and E...its funny since 12/09 and 2/83 were very similar systems in how they evolved....1/96 did have variations but they were situated way into NJ where the mesoband formed...most of the NYC metro was close to each other...2/03 being an overrunning storm as was 2/94 often do not produce as prolific banding as do systems containing deep low pressure centers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 Yea, this has been our experience over the last few years especially-- and we get that horrible subsidence between the bands that gives us like half the snow everyone else gets who's in the band lol. For some reason, I remember storms from a few years ago were more consistent in terms of overall qpf across the region-- storms like Feb 83, Mar 93, Feb 94, Jan 96, PD2. Most of the big storms from the last few years have featured much more banding and variable totals. Has that been your experience too? Yes, I definitely agree...and that's why storms like January 1996, PDII, and February 1983 need to be considered superior to 12/26 this year or the Feb 2006 event...much more widespread distribution of heavy QPF. Recent storms like 12/19/09 (E LI/SE CT jackpot), 2/26/10 (Westchester/Putnam/Orange jackpot) and 12/26/10 (central NJ jackpot) have been more hit and miss with screw zones in between the good banding. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 This low pressure is already producing quite the outbreak of severe thunderstorms west of Corpus Christi, TX. 67 mph wind gust in Alice, TX. TVS signature just north of Corpus Christi. Edit: Now confirmed tornado north of Corpus Christi. Strong couplet signature on SRV. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 Yes, I definitely agree...and that's why storms like January 1996, PDII, and February 1983 need to be considered superior to 12/26 this year or the Feb 2006 event...much more widespread distribution of heavy QPF. Recent storms like 12/19/09 (E LI/SE CT jackpot), 2/26/10 (Westchester/Putnam/Orange jackpot) and 12/26/10 (central NJ jackpot) have been more hit and miss with screw zones in between the good banding. 2/1983 was amazingly efficient at producing such uniform amounts overall given it had so much convection with it, there was periods of nearly continuous thunder and lightning as the system came through NYC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 Looks as if NYC gets around .5-.6" QPF on the 6z GFS....low blooms a bit too late but still a moderate snowfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 Probably because they were stronger storms, weaker systems like a 12/5/02 or a 2/6/03 will usually have uniform snow amounts as mesoscale bands either do not develop or they are very short lived...big systems tends to have those 2 or 3 mesoscale bands that cause crazy variations.....2/83 was relatively uniform in its totals but then again so was 12/19/09 which generally amounts went up as you went S and E...its funny since 12/09 and 2/83 were very similar systems in how they evolved....1/96 did have variations but they were situated way into NJ where the mesoband formed...most of the NYC metro was close to each other...2/03 being an overrunning storm as was 2/94 often do not produce as prolific banding as do systems containing deep low pressure centers. Yea, Ive always thought that overrunning systems that WAA over a dome of arctic air are superior in their snow producing potential, although not as intense. It's hard to get a very intense storm that dumps on everyone in the area-- March 1960 was one of them (although it too had a much higher qpf max near nantucket.) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 This low pressure is already producing quite the outbreak of severe thunderstorms west of Corpus Christi, TX. 67 mph wind gust in Alice, TX. TVS signature just north of Corpus Christi. Edit: Now confirmed tornado north of Corpus Christi. Strong couplet signature on SRV. I wonder if all that convection will mean something for future intensification-- it did for the xmas storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 GEFS will come out in 15-30 min, we'll see what they show. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 MIDWEST TO MID ATLC/NORTHEAST...BROAD CENTRAL U.S. TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO PUSH EAST WITH SHRTWVENERGY SHEARING ACROSS THE OH VALLEY. LGT TO MDT SNOW OVER THEMIDWEST WILL FOCUS WITHIN THE FAVORABLE UPPER DIVERGENT PATTERNAND ALONG EXTENSIVE SFC TROUGH FROM IL TO PA AS WEAK SFC WAVEFORMS ALONG THE BNDRY. AS THE BULK OF THE UPPER ENERGY CROSSESTHE APPALACHIANS...A MUCH STRONGER SFC LOW IS PROGGED TO INTENSIFYALONG THE EAST COAST TUES INTO WEDS. ECMWF/GFS SUGGEST THAT HVSTPRECIP WILL ALIGN CLOSE TO THE COAST FROM NJ TO SRN NEW ENG...BUTA SLIGHTLY MORE WWD TRACK WOULD PRODUCE HVY SNOW TOTALS FARTHERINLAND AS INDICATED BY A NUMBER OF THE ENSEMBLE MEMBERS AND THE21Z SREF MEAN. BL TEMPS MAY ALSO BE WARM ENOUGH FOR RAIN ALONGPORTIONS OF THE COAST...ESPECIALLY CAPE COD Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 Gonna stick with my original thinking from yesterday for immediate PHL area....classic, run-of-the-mill, cimatologically reasonable, (insert own adjective) storm with secondary development happening off the DelMarVa just late enough to spare the area the 'brunt' of the event. A general 2-5"/3-6" storm, snow/mix/rain line I95 South and East....lighter accums at shore points in South Jersey, higher accums North of the city. I'll take it in a heartbeat. We've become spoiled here and accustomed to the big storms over the past year or so but these types of systems are the norm in most winters and where we 'used to' pick up the majority of our seasonal snowfall. Being 42-48 hours out still, I suppose the track and QPF will go through fluctuations, but when all is said and done, looks like an average seasonal winter event here in the immediate PHL area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 GFS ensembles paint a pic of somewhere around .6 qpf for NYC and western long island..... .75 qpf or slightly higher for central and eastern LI and over one inch qpf for eastern sne..... looks to be all snow except maybe for the Cape. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 While I don't hope for no snow next winter I do think we've been spoiled with all the huge snow events in the last 12 months and really throughout the last decade. Growing up in the 1980s was painful and I always fear we go back to that pattern. Would love 4 to 8 outta the midweek storm and looking forward to ur euro play by play coming up 4-8 to perhaps 10 seemed to be the high end norm for snow events when I was growing up. At least in the Lehigh Valley area. I mean really, during the time of my remembrance, there were only about 3 storms that were HECS. 83, 93, and 96. The past few years have been incredible when you think about it, especially for those places who traditionally don't get a lot of snow and usually have p-type issues. South Jersey, The Shore Points, Philly, DC/Baltimore, and to some extent NYC, all are living in snowstorm glory years right now. Four HECS over the past two winters, not to mention the one in 06, and even PD2 in 02. That's at least 6 major snowstorms over a 9 year period, when the area had only seen 3 in the 20+ years prior. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.