nzucker Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 Does anyone mix on the ECM, or is it all snow for the area? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 Tombo, Do you have any 850 data you can interpolate? Coastal NJ anf LI have been dealing with the mixing dilemma all night. Thanks! your fine no 850s, but bl issues i cant really tell nor around the 800mb zone..but with that track you should be fine Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 This would be an 18 hour storm starting Tuesday? tue afd from south to north into wed morning...brunt of it is prob over night Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 Does anyone mix on the ECM, or is it all snow for the area? strictly going by 850s maybe extreme southern del Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radders Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 Tombo, Do you have any 850 data you can interpolate? Coastal NJ anf LI have been dealing with the mixing dilemma all night. Thanks! 850s are not an issue for the Euro for Coastal NJ or LI. Surface temps get close to 32 for the coastal areas but I don't think it would be a major issue. That's my take Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 strictly going by 850s maybe extreme southern del Sounds as if the mix line doesn't approach NYC metro at all. Much colder than the NAM, as we thought. NAM has consistently been the western outlier, so I'm not too concerned. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 that looks like 12z, unless thats what your trying to show? yes youre right, my bad. 00z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 Does anyone mix on the ECM, or is it all snow for the area? from what i see nobody has problems in our area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 yes youre right, my bad. 00z this looks alot like the 00z euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowmizer Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 850s are not an issue for the Euro for Coastal NJ or LI. Surface temps get close to 32 for the coastal areas but I don't think it would be a major issue. That's my take Good news...thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yes_Probably_Maybe_No Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 UKMET @ 84 hrs thanks, looks pretty much like the GFS but much stronger, perhaps better precip thrown NW but who knows Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 About how much snow would that amt to? prob 3-6 with standard 10-1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 prob 3-6 with standard 10-1 He'd do better than 10-1 dude...GFS shows sub 528 thicknesses over eastern PA and he's got a ton of elevation. He's probably looking at 4-8" easily on this run, potentially more. I'd imagine ratios would be around 12:1 here in Westchester County with 15:1 in the mountains of eastern PA. The Norlun event Friday had nearly 20:1 ratios in CT. The only problem for Hazelton will be if the low shifts east a little bit and they end up on the outskirts of the main banding, where snow is not as steady. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 He'd do better than 10-1 dude...GFS shows sub 528 thicknesses over eastern PA and he's got a ton of elevation. He's probably looking at 4-8" easily on this run, potentially more. I'd imagine ratios would be around 12:1 here in Westchester County with 15:1 in the mountains of eastern PA. The Norlun event Friday had nearly 20:1 ratios in CT. The only problem for Hazelton will be if the low shifts east a little bit and they end up on the outskirts of the main banding, where snow is not as steady. thats y i just said 3-6 cause i dont know what ratios would be...you dont even know what the exact qpf would be for him...so thats why i just put it a moot 10-1 standard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 thats y i just said 3-6 cause i dont know what ratios would be...you dont even know what the exact qpf would be for him...so thats why i just put it a moot 10-1 standard. No one knows the exact QPF for the storm yet, obviously....but there's a big difference in coastal climatology regarding ratios and climatology in the Poconos. My family has a house in extreme NE PA at 1500' elevation where I've spent a ton of time, and snowstorms are often much fluffier there with surface temperatures being colder than NYC by about 10F in winter, as well as elevation enhancement on most wind directions from the start of the Allegheny Plateau. You can't use 10:1 ratios for the Poconos as they often bang out way more. This looks like a fairly cold storm to me, just a shade warmer than 12/26, with NYC probably in the mid 20s and the Poconos in the upper teens to low 20s. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwx21 Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 After looking at all the models tonight, I think there's growing confidence for a nice moderate event. 3 to 6. 4 to 8. Something like that. More QPF east, but accums on LI could be cut down by some mixing. 3 to 8 is probably a good starting point. Still early obviously. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 Anything else of interest on the 0z ECM? How does the Arctic front play out? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yes_Probably_Maybe_No Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 GFS cookin' up an interesting one at hour 192 for those that like to venture into fantasy land for kicks and giggles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 Anything else of interest on the 0z ECM? How does the Arctic front play out? after this event, we get a glancing shot of cold air with some lgt snows around 190....after that its a swfe with ice, then after that cutter with warm temps out ahead of that and brutal cold behind...one thing i have seen is the models have really veered awy from the big arctic outbreak that was show. now its just a glancing blow really. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ptb127 Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 I thought I saw on the 192 0z GFS a high off the SE coast with 850 temps approaching 0 over N Mid Atl?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 after this event, we get a glancing shot of cold air with some lgt snows around 190....after that its a swfe with ice, then after that cutter with warm temps out ahead of that and brutal cold behind...one thing i have seen is the models have really veered awy from the big arctic outbreak that was show. now its just a glancing blow really. I think the cold is going to move in after the cutter at hour 240. -25C 850s are hitting MN/WI; if a trough amplifies as it would with a cutter, we'll easily get hit with at least -15C and probably much colder. That PV in Canada is eventually going to deliver cold air to the East; I believe this is a case of "delayed but not denied." Also, the two days after the storm have 850s around -11C and -12C; that's going to be plenty cold with strong NW flow and good radiational cooling due to the fresh snowpack. We'll probably see some single digits in the outlying suburbs of LI and NJ, with highs struggling to reach the mid 20s outside of NYC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 heres the jma at hr 72, looks west of gfs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 I think the cold is going to move in after the cutter at hour 240. -25C 850s are hitting MN/WI; if a trough amplifies as it would with a cutter, we'll easily get hit with at least -15C and probably much colder. That PV in Canada is eventually going to deliver cold air to the East; I believe this is a case of "delayed but not denied." Also, the two days after the storm have 850s around -11C and -12C; that's going to be plenty cold with strong NW flow and good radiational cooling due to the fresh snowpack. We'll probably see some single digits in the outlying suburbs of LI and NJ, with highs struggling to reach the mid 20s outside of NYC. yea, not doubt its going to be cold, im just saying the models are backing off on the sub 504 thickness diving down into the northeast like they were showing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 Monster NAO block showing up on the ECM at Day 10: LR is honestly looking great...we may have to deal with snow-->rain ahead of the arctic front, but then it's brutal cold with a great -NAO. Honestly no signs of the pattern breaking down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bilas Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 we all know this scenario will probably change a few times between now and the actual event. What do we need to happen for us in the Phila / S Central NJ to get a bigger snowfall amount. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ptb127 Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 What did the euro ensembles say? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 What did the euro ensembles say? Won't be out for another half hour Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 Monster NAO block showing up on the ECM at Day 10: LR is honestly looking great...we may have to deal with snow-->rain ahead of the arctic front, but then it's brutal cold with a great -NAO. Honestly no signs of the pattern breaking down. i wouldnt say monster, it looks pretty weakly negative...the 500 mb hgts are like 534, and its not pinching in like a true block, a good block for us is over baffin island, and its deff not shown at that hr. Plus the pac looks blah, no ridge on the west coast, the flow is right off the pacific. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 i wouldnt say monster, it looks pretty weakly negative...the 500 mb hgts are like 534, and its not pinching in like a true block, a good block for us is over baffin island, and its deff not shown at that hr. Plus the pac looks blah, no ridge on the east coast, the flow is right off the pacific. Posting the means is irrelevant because we all know the -NAO is breaking down after this storm, so that's going to dilute the appearance of the block's formation at Day 9/10. At Day 10 on the 0z ECM, we've got a 534dm closed ridge over Central Greenland, definitely a significant height anomaly. You can clearly see the block moving west and starting to push into Baffin Island...if you look at the Northern Hemisphere 500mb map: By the way, we don't mind a strong Pacific flow when we have a brutally cold airmass in Canada, as this can set the stage for some good overrunning and SW flow events. Of course I live a bit further north than you, so my perspective might be different as I'm more likely to hold snow in a gradient pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 What I find kind of scary is that all the models at 72 hours are virtually in the same spot ... 00z NOGAPS Different map used from the others but just noticing primary and secondary 00z GFS maybe a little north UKMET GGEM ECM Considering that one of them has the most progressive SE bias...they all seem to be agreeing at this point and time on positioning... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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