Sock Puppet Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 How much snow do you want? He'll make it happen!!!!!1!1! keep the trend of the Euro to the East Tombo!!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 saw in the other thread NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD1209 AM EST SUN JAN 09 2011 VALID JAN 09/0000 UTC THRU JAN 12/1200 UTC ...SEE NOUS42 KWNO ADMNFD FOR THE STATUS OF THE UPPER AIR INGEST... 00Z NAM/GFS EVALUATION INCLUDING THE NEW UKMET/CANADIAN AND PREFERENCES INITIALIZATION ERRORS ARE DESCRIBED UNDER THE RELEVANT SYSTEM HEADING. ...LOW PRESSURE MOVING FROM THE ROCKIES TO THE OHIO VALLEY THROUGH THE PERIOD... PREFERENCE: AFTER 00Z TUE...GFS THE NAM INITIALIZES THE BASE OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER OREGON/IDAHO APPROXIMATELY 25 NM TOO FAR NORTH...WHICH CONTRIBUTES TO AN INCREASINGLY SLOW AND DEEP SOLUTION ENTERING THE OHIO VALLEY LATE IN THE FORECAST CYCLE COMPARED TO GFS/12Z ECMWF WHICH ARE WEAKER AND MORE PROGRESSIVE. THUS...THE NAM IS DISCOUNTED BEGINNING 00Z TUE. AMONG THE REMAINING GUIDANCE...THE ECMWF WEAKENS THE LOW FASTER THAN THE GFS LATE IN THE PERIOD BUT OTHERWISE MAINTAINS A SIMILAR PATH...WITH THE UKMET/CANADIAN MORE LIKE THE GFS. THUS...DUE TO CONSENSUS RECOMMEND THE GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 through 42 hrs, northern stream doesnt to be digging as much....hgts along ec are a little hgr... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 It's definitely a little slower with the northern stream feature back over the West. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Noreaster07 Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 how does this compare to the 12 z or 18 z runs...overall Only looked through 18z overall most were up for 00z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 hr 54 has a sub 1016 low just off southeastern sc coast, its a little west of 12z...loke john mentioned northern stream is deff a little slower Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 hr 54 has a sub 1016 low just off southeastern sc coast, its a little west of 12z Don't know if it will wind up west of 12z near our latitude, though...the northern stream is slower. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 The main climatic change is that there has been little or no Appalachian Runner storm events in the past five years. These storms typically bring lots of snow to central PA, 2-4 inch snow events followed by ice storms from CAD setups in the Lehigh and Shenandoah Valleys and cold rain events to NYC, NJ and Philadelphia. I think we will return to this setup again by the end of the winter If it wasn't for the blocking over the past month, there's little doubt we'd see the usual Nina train of cutters and the SE Ridge. There hasn't been much of a +PNA, and therefore without that block we'd likely have been torching all December. The storminess we've seen thus far has been a direct result of that block and the cold air transported south. The pattern has actually been more Ninoish thus far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 hr 60 has a sub 1016 low bout 50 miles south of cape fear...the primary is alot weaker than 12z, and is tn somewhere... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grothar Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 If it wasn't for the blocking over the past month, there's little doubt we'd see the usual Nina train of cutters and the SE Ridge. There hasn't been much of a +PNA, and therefore without that block we'd likely have been torching all December. The storminess we've seen thus far has been a direct result of that block and the cold air transported south. The pattern has actually been more Ninoish thus far. Yes I agree. La Nino would fit this pattern Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grothar Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 hr 60 has a sub 1016 low bout 50 miles south of cape fear...the primary is alot weaker than 12z, and is tn somewhere... Memphis Low? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 hr 66 sub 1016 low about 75 miles south of hse...the primary again is weaker than 12z run...it has a weakly defined sub 1020 low over southern oh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 hr 72 sub 1012 low about 50 miles ne of hse ,01-.1 holmdel to abe to bgm on south.. .1-.25 se va and southern delmarva Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 We will see what it does at 84..but through 78 it def looks east of 12z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 hr 78 mod snow from pitt-nyc.....south of dc is dry slotting Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 hr 78 sub 1004 low about 150 miles east of lewes del .1-.25 nyc then all of pa and nj down to about dc....25-.5 along nj coast.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 84 hrs looks to be a bit west of the GFS...but its east of the 12z run by a good margin. Similar QPF to the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 its a tad further east then 12z. at hr 84...mod snow from phl-nyc...heavy snow for long island Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 hr 84 sub 992 low over bm .1-.25 lewes to northeast md to lns to towanda to alb .25-.5 ac to nyc to alb .5-.75 queens county on east Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radders Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 84 hrs looks to be a bit west of the GFS...but its east of the 12z run by a good margin. Similar QPF to the GFS. Yes, that was my interpretation too.. But I ended up deleting my post as I really wasn't completely sure if it really was west of the GFS.. It is very similar. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 hr 90 sub 984 low about 100-125 miles east of cape cod .1-.25 nyc to bgm .25-.5 islip to just south of alb Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 QPF seems similar in the NYC area as the 12z correct? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 total qpf for 00z euro looks like .25+ from ttn west..... and .50+ by drawing a line down the middel of nj east.....75+ from LI east edit .75 is brushing the jersey shore and nyc Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 hr 96 .1-.25 central li to then straght up ct and mass border with ny state Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 hr 84 sub 992 low over bm .1-.25 lewes to northeast md to lns to towanda to alb .25-.5 ac to nyc to alb .5-.75 queens county on east Wow, looks like another major hit. The weaker primary is definitely a good thing, as is the rapid deepening as it gets to east of NJ/DE. A quick hitter for sure but quite a pounding for a solid 12 hour period. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 looks like .25+ from ttn west..... and .50+ by drawing a line down the middel of nj east.....75+ from LI east Not bad. Tombo's description sounds like Queens and east gets .75"+. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 at hr 84 the heavy heavy snow band is 50 miles away from blitzing all of NJ again.. However it slams LI and new england. Still a nice moderate event for most of the tri state. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 Not bad. Tombo's description sounds like Queens and east gets .75"+. yeah i edit at the last min its def close to nyc....very nice storm on the euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattinpa Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 So sounds like about .25-.5 for Philly and suburbs, Tom? Thanks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 total qpf .25-.5 all of pa into nw nj and western jerz by phl .5-.75 millville to ttn to monticello to about alb .75-1 toms river to nyc then up ct state line 1-1.25 central li to central ct 1.25 -1.5 the rest of li into ct Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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