Collegestudent11 Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 I know this has been discussed before, however, in this instance, does anyone see the models under performing qpf wise? I see tracks over the benchmark and qpf of about .5 or so on average. Would such a track argue for a stronger, more consolidated precipitation shield, such as the NAM, or SERF? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 00z GGEM at 84 hrs 12 Z GGEM at 96 hrs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 Iseriously hope next winter we get no snow at all, and every event is rain. Maybe some people won't take for granted 2-4 inches of snow and just be happy its snowing. Its absolutely pathetic how people are bitching and moaning and saying nails in coffin when its still going to snow for everyone. Why does it always have to be either big storm or fail, 12 plus or death. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 Is that really tonight's GFS clown snow map? If so it doesn't make much sense at all. Yeah, there is a big difference along the Delmarva and S NJ between that and the Earthsat images. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 I think it's because the transfer is later so its not like a low coming up the coast and bombing out sooner and dumping a ton of moisture I know this has been discussed before, however, in this instance, does anyone see the models under performing qpf wise? I see tracks over the benchmark and qpf of about .5 or so on average. Would such a track argue for a stronger, more consolidated precipitation shield, such as the NAM, or SERF? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Collegestudent11 Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 Iseriously hope next winter we get no snow at all, and every event is rain. Maybe some people won't take for granted 2-4 inches of snow and just be happy its snowing. Its absolutely pathetic how people are bitching and moaning and saying nails in coffin when its still going to snow for everyone. Why does it always have to be either big storm or fail, 12 plus or death. The thing about snow is simply this; it is a atmospherical phenomenon, and should it snow, it simply snows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 I know this has been discussed before, however, in this instance, does anyone see the models under performing qpf wise? I see tracks over the benchmark and qpf of about .5 or so on average. Would such a track argue for a stronger, more consolidated precipitation shield, such as the NAM, or SERF? I do think we'll see the trend towards increasing QPF if we get this track to verify; a benchmark track on a Miller B, especially if the low forms off the Delmarva, can easily give NYC 8-12" snowfall. It obviously depends on how quickly the low bombs out but I tend to agree that the models are being a little chincy with QPF. There's also the possibility for banding, which would increase totals in areas favored by the H7 track and decrease totals in areas affected by subsidence on the other side of the band. Iseriously hope next winter we get no snow at all, and every event is rain. Maybe some people won't take for granted 2-4 inches of snow and just be happy its snowing. Its absolutely pathetic how people are bitching and moaning and saying nails in coffin when its still going to snow for everyone. Why does it always have to be either big storm or fail.=, 12 plus or death. Snow is beautiful, and you should enjoy every inch when you live on the coastal plain. I remember being in middle school and dealing with winter after winter of nothing....96-97, 97-98, 98-99, 99-00...we should appreciate how lucky we have been in the past decade with receiving major snowfalls and having some periods of sustained cold weather such as didn't exist much in the late 90s when winters were often very mild. I do think people's expectations are high from this storm, since it does have a classic track and two of the best analogs are March 1960 and January 1996. I am not surprised people are expecting a 12" event when we have a low bombing into the 980s near the benchmark. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwx21 Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 Is that really tonight's GFS clown snow map? If so it doesn't make much sense at all. I was thinking the same thing. Almost nothing for the Jersey shore and LI. It seems to be factoring in as much or even more mixing than NAM, even though it's well east of NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowmizer Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 The thing about snow is simply this; it is a atmospherical phenomenon, and should it snow, it simply snows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ababa Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 While I don't hope for no snow next winter I do think we've been spoiled with all the huge snow events in the last 12 months and really throughout the last decade. Growing up in the 1980s was painful and I always fear we go back to that pattern. Would love 4 to 8 outta the midweek storm and looking forward to ur euro play by play coming up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grothar Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 Iseriously hope next winter we get no snow at all, and every event is rain. Maybe some people won't take for granted 2-4 inches of snow and just be happy its snowing. Its absolutely pathetic how people are bitching and moaning and saying nails in coffin when its still going to snow for everyone. Why does it always have to be either big storm or fail, 12 plus or death. Thank you for saying this. I guess some people are used to getting 12 inch snows the last few years come to expect them on every snow event now. I guess if the 20- 30 snow had not melted like it did and they had a 1996 snow melt, they would not be wishing for more snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 I was thinking the same thing. Almost nothing for the Jersey shore and LI. It seems to be factoring in as much or even more mixing than NAM, even though it's well east of NAM. well on the gfs central and eastern li have mixing issues, so i can see the cut down there, but west towards nyc is bizzare. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 Iseriously hope next winter we get no snow at all, and every event is rain. Maybe some people won't take for granted 2-4 inches of snow and just be happy its snowing. Its absolutely pathetic how people are bitching and moaning and saying nails in coffin when its still going to snow for everyone. Why does it always have to be either big storm or fail, 12 plus or death. People here, especially the younger ones, are extremely spoiled by how great the past 10 years have been. They consider 4"-8" a bad storm. It's truly pathetic. They don't understand that we average 22"-30" in the cities for a reason. It's not normal for NYC to keep getting 40"+ so often with non-stop KU's. If it were, NYC would average 40". Some people here need a reality check. Any snow storm is nice. A 4"-8" event is a beautiful event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 well on the gfs central and eastern li have mixing issues, so i can see the cut down there, but west towards nyc is bizzare. Sometimes it factors in surface temps I think...it might think since its 34/25 when the snow begins that its not really accumulating. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 fyi i wont be doing the euro tomorrow at 12z, ill be at the eagles game...anyways, the 0z euro has just started lets see if it hold or goes west towards nam or east towards ggem and ukie Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
whiteoutwx1796 Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 People here, especially the younger ones, are extremely spoiled by how great the past 10 years have been. They consider 4"-8" a bad storm. It's truly pathetic. They don't understand that we average 22"-30" in the cities for a reason. It's not normal for NYC to keep getting 40"+ so often with non-stop KU's. If it were, NYC would average 40". Some people here need a reality check. Any snow storm is nice. A 4"-8" event is a beautiful event. I agree 100%. I remember in the late 90's I would be thrilled with 3-6" or 4-8" storms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwx21 Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 well on the gfs central and eastern li have mixing issues, so i can see the cut down there, but west towards nyc is bizzare. It definitely looks overdone with the mixing too far west. Of course we know these clown maps are not to be trusted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 fyi i wont be doing the euro tomorrow at 12z, ill be at the eagles game...anyways, the 0z euro has just started lets see if it hold or goes west towards nam or east towards ggem and ukie Thanks Tombo.. I'm not so sure how east the ukie will be post 72. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 fyi i wont be doing the euro tomorrow at 12z, ill be at the eagles game...anyways, the 0z euro has just started lets see if it hold or goes west towards nam or east towards ggem and ukie bring some love mr. tombo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwx21 Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 People here, especially the younger ones, are extremely spoiled by how great the past 10 years have been. They consider 4"-8" a bad storm. It's truly pathetic. They don't understand that we average 22"-30" in the cities for a reason. It's not normal for NYC to keep getting 40"+ so often with non-stop KU's. If it were, NYC would average 40". Some people here need a reality check. Any snow storm is nice. A 4"-8" event is a beautiful event. Well said. Some people don't seem to realize that NYC is not supposed to be getting 12" storms almost every winter. The pace that we've been getting big storms in the last decade is not normal. An 8" storm in most normal winters would actually be considered a major event. We are getting too spoiled. We will see it when we go into a different cycle and get very few big storms over a 10 year period. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Noreaster07 Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 00z GFS Bufkit RDG- 5.2" ABE- 4.9" PHL- 3.9" ILG- 3.4" ACY- 3.1" TTN- 4.0" HPN- 8.0" JFK- 2.6" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 Thanks Tombo.. I'm not so sure how east the ukie will be post 72. yes very true, but the 0z postion at 72 looks east of nam and gfs i believe, again i didn't compare it to 12z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Manny Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 People here, especially the younger ones, are extremely spoiled by how great the past 10 years have been. They consider 4"-8" a bad storm. It's truly pathetic. They don't understand that we average 22"-30" in the cities for a reason. It's not normal for NYC to keep getting 40"+ so often with non-stop KU's. If it were, NYC would average 40". Some people here need a reality check. Any snow storm is nice. A 4"-8" event is a beautiful event. The 1.7" that the City received yesterday was just amazingly beautiful. So, if this event is progged to be a moderate hit, there is so other way to take it, but to enjoy it, the dynamics, the heavy bands, the purity and beauty of it. Most guidance has been depicting a general 1-10" for this system so far, but that could change. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 00z GFS Bufkit RDG- 5.2" ABE- 4.9" PHL- 3.9" ILG- 3.4" ACY- 3.1" TTN- 4.0" HPN- 8.0" JFK- 2.6" how does this compare to the 12 z or 18 z runs...overall Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LVblizzard Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 00z GFS Bufkit RDG- 5.2" ABE- 4.9" PHL- 3.9" ILG- 3.4" ACY- 3.1" TTN- 4.0" HPN- 8.0" JFK- 2.6" Those seem like very believable numbers, if I had to make a first guess I'd take that forecast right there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 how does this compare to the 12 z or 18 z runs...overall Pretty sure its higher. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 The clown maps probably are too low along the coast, too much influence of the warm ocean in the adjacent boundary layer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 through hr 30, everything looks pretty much the same so far Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grothar Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 Well said. Some people don't seem to realize that NYC is not supposed to be getting 12" storms almost every winter. The pace that we've been getting big storms in the last decade is not normal. An 8" storm in most normal winters would actually be considered a major event. We are getting too spoiled. We will see it when we go into a different cycle and get very few big storms over a 10 year period. The main climatic change is that there has been little or no Appalachian Runner storm events in the past five years. These storms typically bring lots of snow to central PA, 2-4 inch snow events followed by ice storms from CAD setups in the Lehigh and Shenandoah Valleys and cold rain events to NYC, NJ and Philadelphia. I think we will return to this setup again by the end of the winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 The clown maps probably are too low along the coast, too much influence of the warm ocean in the adjacent boundary layer. They always do that, even with NW flow evolving, doesn't make any sense. The 0z GFS shows most of NYC metro around 32/33 at the surface, colder here in Westchester County, with the 850 0C contour well offshore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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