tombo82685 Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 ens mean Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SmokeEater Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 You want more snow? Move to a more climo-favored area. Where did I say I wanted more? I've seen enough snow in the last 2 winters to last me a lifetime. Just stating the obvious, about how it's been the complete opposite the last 2 winters. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 ens mean Ensembles sport a track roughly down the middle of most of the guidance and matches pretty close with the EURO. I prob go with something close to that scenario at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SmokeEater Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 dont worry about him...all his posts recently involve how hes the snowhole capital of the EC. Yup, I know, he pulls that crap constantly. Him and a certain few from up in that area. Can we seriously stop, with all the IMBY crap? The last few pages of this thread have been a complete joke. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NittanyWx Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 Until I found the setup before from 2000 that resembled this pattern strongly I was very much more concerned about this being a miss to the east then being too warm for the coast...to an extent I still feel that is the more likely of those 2 possibilities. That was my first reaction as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grothar Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 ens mean The coastal low is not deep enough for me before the primary transfers. However, The placement of the low is nearly identical to 1983 storm. The Qpf has got to come up and that coastal low has to deepen earlier to rob the primary otherwise we have a dying storm in PA with no chance of snow banding in eastern PA. The snowhole will live on east of Harrisburg with these models Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jdt Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 I don't know guys. I have had people telling me out of the blue all week how we would get 2 feet plus, 12-18 inches and so on, people who know absolutely nothing about the weather. I was at the grocery store today and I overheard people talking today about a massive storm on Wednesday and when I told them we might only get 6 inches they were very surprised and said, that's it, well that's not a big deal. My experience in life has been when people talk this much about a storm, it usually doesn't pan out. It is when they don't know about it that they get hammered. I will be pleasantly surprised if this one turns out to be a big one. I just have a bad feeling about it and have consistently. The NOGAPS which was consistently showing a massive hit days ago has been trending with less and less of an event for a day now and the Canadian has done the same thing. The GFS is not far behind in this thinking. Maybe I will be pleasantly surprised, but to me this looks like a long shot for it being a big deal. And I would never, ever trust the NAM at this time frame. Maybe the Euro will pleasantly surprise us, but the rest of the models kind of look blah. To me this has the look of a typical (if such a thing can be said) snow event. Moderate to moderately significant. At least for the NNJ area. Something on the order of 4-8" type of thing. A possibility of perhaps as much as 12". Further NE into SNE perhaps a bit bigger as the coastal as matured more for them. Could possible see a mix issue for some coastal areas too but that is not a sure thing. Then again it is never a sure thing till it has fallen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 heres the ukmet, im not sure what the 12z showed, but it looks like 12z ggemor a lil west of that http://weather.uwyo.edu/cgi-bin/model?MODEL=ukmet&TIME=2011010900®ION=USLCC&FCST=all&LEVEL=850&F2=none&C2=tmpc&VEC=none&F1=p06i&C1=pmsl Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 To me this has the look of a typical (if such a thing can be said) snow event. Moderate to moderately significant. At least for the NNJ area. Something on the order of 4-8" type of thing. A possibility of perhaps as much as 12". Further NE into SNE perhaps a bit bigger as the coastal as matured more for them. Could possible see a mix issue for some coastal areas too but that is not a sure thing. Then again it is never a sure thing till it has fallen. It really depends on how fast the low is deepening for us, not necessarily how mature it is. The Boxing Day storm was perfectly mature for SNE, but the heavy snow there was very spotty because of dry air entrainment, while we mostly cashed in due to the rapid deepening as it passed by us, along with very strong mid level frontogenesis and lift. If the low waits until Cape Cod before really bombing, we get hosed. If it bombs off NJ (more likely in my opinion because there is still great baroclinicity from the Gulf Stream) we get hammered too. Luckily the NAM looks out to lunch and overdone with the low so close to the coast. Every other model tonight is significantly further east so far. I'm really not as worried about a weak coastal low as I am about the primary low hanging on and warming us up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 Can we stop with the IMBY snowhole nonsense? Thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
_AR_ Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 Can we stop with the IMBY snowhole nonsense? Thanks. Meh, 90% of the posts in this forum are IMBY posts. I see just as many people in NJ/NY posting about how much or how little they are getting. We all know we can never have enough snow! I hope this one can satisfy more people though. Looks like it can. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Collegestudent11 Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 Any word on the GGEM? I would typically see it here by this time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jdt Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 It really depends on how fast the low is deepening for us, not necessarily how mature it is. The Boxing Day storm was perfectly mature for SNE, but the heavy snow there was very spotty because of dry air entrainment, while we mostly cashed in due to the rapid deepening as it passed by us, along with very strong mid level frontogenesis and lift. If the low waits until Cape Cod before really bombing, we get hosed. If it bombs off NJ (more likely in my opinion because there is still great baroclinicity from the Gulf Stream) we get hammered too. Luckily the NAM looks out to lunch and overdone with the low so close to the coast. Every other model tonight is significantly further east so far. I'm really not as worried about a weak coastal low as I am about the primary low hanging on and warming us up. Good Points though I do think the 12/27 storm was a beast all its own. It deepened rapidly starting south of the Jersey coast and then still continued to deepen rapidly as it nearly stalled and slowly drifted ENE away for the Jersey coast. This storm will not be of that intensity or deepening at nearly such and intense rate as 12/27, at least not at a latitude that far south, but more likely at or north of 40N imo and not likely to stall or slow significantly but keep moving along at a steady pace. That can still bring a sizable snow event to much of NJ, especially NNJ but still suspect it would be more in the magnitude of ~4-8" and perhaps up to 12". Of course at 3 days out this can change but just how it looks and feels to me, at least at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 Meh, 90% of the posts in this forum are IMBY posts. I see just as many people in NJ/NY posting about how much or how little they are getting. We all know we can never have enough snow! I hope this one can satisfy more people though. Looks like it can. If it is related to the upcoming event, it is fine. No one really cares what the last 5 seasons have or have not done. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 heres the ukmet, im not sure what the 12z showed, but it looks like 12z ggemor a lil west of that http://weather.uwyo....F1=p06i&C1=pmsl Looks like the ggem but it is west of 12z. GGEM/UK are all east again.. Deja vu Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TwcMan Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 Any word on the GGEM? I would typically see it here by this time. I hear it's the same as the 12z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 Any word on the GGEM? I would typically see it here by this time. It's east of the GFS. Definitely no mixing issues to worry about. Eyeballing it looks like a widespread .15-.25" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stephen Turner Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 Looks like the ggem but it is west of 12z. GGEM/UK are all east again.. Deja vu is this what happened with the last storm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 Any word on the GGEM? I would typically see it here by this time. Shifted slightly west from the 12z run. It looks like a BM track or maybe slightly east of it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stephen Turner Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 It's east of the GFS. Definitely no mixing issues to worry about. Eyeballing it looks like a widespread .15-.25" does that mean 1.5-2.5 inches? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 heres the ukmet, im not sure what the 12z showed, but it looks like 12z ggemor a lil west of that http://weather.uwyo....F1=p06i&C1=pmsl GGEM is east (more than 12z) and grazes the area with 0.20 - 0.40 qpf (more north eand east of NYC) LI/NE do best Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Collegestudent11 Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 It's east of the GFS. Definitely no mixing issues to worry about. Eyeballing it looks like a widespread .15-.25" Shifted slightly west from the 12z run. It looks like a BM track or maybe slightly east of it. That seems odd, benchmark, and only .15-.25? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 does that mean 1.5-2.5 inches? Nope, that means .15 to .25 liquid equivalent, or .15 to .25 of an inch of liquid. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
_AR_ Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 If it is related to the upcoming event, it is fine. No one really cares what the last 5 seasons have or have not done. Who cares, this thread has been crap for at least the last 4 pages with all the whining, and people wonder why we're called the worst subforum. I think the main problem is everyone just needs to relax and post when they have something useful to add. We're all here for the same reason. We want to track the storms and get snow. Lets do that instead of posting rants or complaints about lack of snow, other people, etc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 It's east of the GFS. Definitely no mixing issues to worry about. Eyeballing it looks like a widespread .15-.25" GGEM is east (more than 12z) and grazes the area with 0.20 - 0.40 qpf (more north eand east of NYC) LI/NE do best Yeah, I should've pointed out that the farther east you are, the better you do in the GEM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 Shifted slightly west from the 12z run. It looks like a BM track or maybe slightly east of it. The ggem is east of 12z and has the area in 5 10 mm (0.20 - 0.40) of qpf http://www.weatheroffice.gc.ca/data/model_forecast/133_100.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 euro may put the nail in the coffin west of the De river Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grothar Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 If it is related to the upcoming event, it is fine. No one really cares what the last 5 seasons have or have not done. Is it time to separate this thread NYC and PA/NJ and pin it and remove the current pinned storm event? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bass28 Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 The ggem is east of 12z and has the area in 5 10 mm (0.20 - 0.40) of qpf http://www.weatherof...ast/133_100.gif its west of 12z go to e-wall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 Is that really tonight's GFS clown snow map? If so it doesn't make much sense at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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