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Jan 11th-12th Snow threat is REAL


Wx4cast

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4" in L'pool....snowing nicely. Great discussions by all! TH, your thoughts on how this all transpired have been very good!

Time for mother nature to reward you and your fellow Tuggsters with something BIG!

Yes all of us Tuggsters have been bystanders this Winter....I hope your right....All it takes is one or two good LES events to get back in the game.

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I never believed it, just thought it was ridonculous. I just want to know what they were thinking. They're usually not this far off. I upped my forecast from 5-10" to 6-12" yesterday and now I'm thinking that I should have stuck with 5-10". Radar is filling in a bit in Albany County and the models did hint at enhanced precip in the Cap District this afternoon. We'll see, but I'm guessing we don't break 10". Current surface map looks like it want to try to turn winds WNW down the Mohawk Valley. Hudson Valley has north winds. Maybe a bit of convergence starting. Nice little kink in Isobars.

The old MVHV convergence....that area should be good for a inch or two later today

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MVHV is hard to predict. The NWSFO mentioned in the there discussion yesterday. Sometimes it works out and sometimes it doesn't. I mention it so much that I should probably change my screen name to MVHV Convergence LOL! It usually disappoints although a couple of times it's cranked out 3-6"!

The old MVHV convergence....that area should be good for a inch or two later today

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What do you think about the clipper this weekend? Didn't look too impressive on the 12z GFS. I thought us Tuggsters might get some LES behind the clipper but cold air looks marginal now.

I think the forecast verified fairly well for most of us....I hope everyone enjoys their snow :snowman: ......Tug looks to get a little light LES tomorrow

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What do you think about the clipper this weekend? Didn't look too impressive on the 12z GFS. I thought us Tuggsters might get some LES behind the clipper but cold air looks marginal now.

The LES tonight and tomorrow will have two strikes against it. One, is the inversion height is very low...so the band won't' be able to grow very high. And two, The shear is very strong..so this will most like tear apart stronger bands that try to form. One thing that is good is the amount of moisture...any bands that do get going could be locally strong. Places SE of Ontario like SYR will most likely pick up 2-5 inches tonight. The band might shift up to the Tug tomorrow So the Tug could see a few inches at that time By the time Friday rolls around we will have drier air overhead. Therefore, the clipper like system coming thru Saturday will be on the weak side, so I don't see a lot of snow from it...The Tue/Wed storm will be interesting....We won't have A high around that will help hold on to the cold air like we had with this one....So we will have to watch the Rain Snow Line closely...But most likely the coast will see rain out of this one....One good thing is , In about a week and a half the models are showing quite a lot of cold air...So it could be fun...We will see.

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The LES tonight and tomorrow will have two strikes against it. One, is the inversion height is very low...so the band won't' be able to grow very high. And two, The shear is very strong..so this will most like tear apart stronger bands that try to form. One thing that is good is the amount of moisture...any bands that do get going could be locally strong. Places SE of Ontario like SYR will most likely pick up 2-5 inches tonight. The band might shift up to the Tug tomorrow So the Tug could see a few inches at that time By the time Friday rolls around we will have drier air overhead. Therefore, the clipper like system coming thru Saturday will be on the weak side, so I don't see a lot of snow from it...The Tue/Wed storm will be interesting....We won't have A high around that will help hold on to the cold air like we had with this one....So we will have to watch the Rain Snow Line closely...But most likely the coast will see rain out of this one....One good thing is , In about a week and a half the models are showing quite a lot of cold air...So it could be fun...We will see.

May I suggest you start a thread on next week's threat potentials. I'm stormed out for now. :arrowhead:

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Another glancing blow here... two Noreasters in a row where the Hill Towns end up on the short end, but better than nothing. Maybe it's payback for the 46 inches last February. :devilsmiley:

Best estimate would be 6 inches as of 10:45 AM. There could be a tad more, but I haven't done my official measurement yet.

-SN continues and 21F.

Beware! Last 1/2 of Feb and March...

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I am still in shock and awe and dumfounded (somewhat not that we didn't hammer the Berks and SVT but come on those amounts were like from out the Rudolph the Red-Nosed Reinder Christmas Special! "And then it struck!" ) over the SICK totals across SVT and the Berkshires. That megaband just thumped these locations and probably caused a lot of subsidence to the west which kept snow totals down some over ENY esp. the HV.

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9.9 here. A bit surprised that much on the board but that's what it is...

I wonder what the chances are of some mohawk hudson convergence enhancement over the next few hours, I know it ws mentioned in the ALY AFD yesterday. That would probably add another inch or two of fluff.

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Fresh off the presses: measurement at 7:00 PM reveals that we are now at 8.6". We have had 2 more inches since about 4:30 PM. Snowing moderately and 16F.

I wonder what the chances are of some mohawk hudson convergence enhancement over the next few hours, I know it ws mentioned in the ALY AFD yesterday. That would probably add another inch or two of fluff.

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