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Jan 11th-12th Snow threat is REAL


Wx4cast

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wow the 03z RUC hammers ENY and poinst northeast

03zrucreflectivity011.gif

RUC looks better than SREF at this point...we'll see about slp placement but the So. Fork of LI is already above freezing - could be coastal front but could also see slp riding that and actually crossing over BID to TAN in Mass...which would greatly affect forecasts for my old stomping grounds. SREF mean keeps R/S line offshore - which is already bogus.

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Final thought before I go to bed. The water temps are warmer than the cold air going over them; so as the Jet pulls this thing North and Northeast Instability will cause it intensify very quickly over the next 20-30 hours. The coastal is a little more west than the models said it would be, but not enough to make a huge difference...I think 3-6 for the Mohawk Valley and 8-12 north of Albany, with 12-14+ south of Albany and 16-18 with maybe a few Easter Egg 20 inch amounts closer to the coast is a good bet :snowman: ....I hope I get 2 inches. So far this Winter the northern Tug can't catch a break.:thumbsdown:

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Final thought before I go to bed. The water temps are warmer than the cold air going over them; so as the Jet pulls this thing North and Northeast Instability will cause it intensify very quickly over the next 20-30 hours. The coastal is a little more west than the models said it would be, but not enough to make a huge difference...I think 3-6 for the Mohawk Valley and 8-12 north of Albany, with 12-14+ south of Albany and 16-18 with maybe a few Easter Egg 20 inch amounts closer to the coast is a good bet :snowman: ....I hope I get 2 inches. So far this Winter the northern Tug can't catch a break.:thumbsdown:

Sounds good to me. Appreciate your efforts. You will get yours soon.

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Nice summary.....matches my thinking. I'll be rooting for you to get yours soon. All snow lovers deserve to be dumped on. :hug:

Final thought before I go to bed. The water temps are warmer than the cold air going over them; so as the Jet pulls this thing North and Northeast Instability will cause it intensify very quickly over the next 20-30 hours. The coastal is a little more west than the models said it would be, but not enough to make a huge difference...I think 3-6 for the Mohawk Valley and 8-12 north of Albany, with 12-14+ south of Albany and 16-18 with maybe a few Easter Egg 20 inch amounts closer to the coast is a good bet :snowman: ....I hope I get 2 inches. So far this Winter the northern Tug can't catch a break.:thumbsdown:

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Final thought before I go to bed. The water temps are warmer than the cold air going over them; so as the Jet pulls this thing North and Northeast Instability will cause it intensify very quickly over the next 20-30 hours. The coastal is a little more west than the models said it would be, but not enough to make a huge difference...I think 3-6 for the Mohawk Valley and 8-12 north of Albany, with 12-14+ south of Albany and 16-18 with maybe a few Easter Egg 20 inch amounts closer to the coast is a good bet :snowman: ....I hope I get 2 inches. So far this Winter the northern Tug can't catch a break.:thumbsdown:

I definitely know the cant catch a break feeling with below average winters for the last 5 years here.. this year will hopefully end that. I'm sure you will get a nice storm be it lake effect or synoptic sooner than later.

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About 3.5" here as of 3:40 AM. We are clearly near he edge of the betters snows here...alternates between light and moderate. Nothing compared to the true intense banding down toward CT and MA and the far east edge of NY.

Nice snowy ride home from near Canandiagua. It was pretty heavy from 10:00 to 12:30 between SYR and here, but a that stuff moved north and weakened.

lol I have to laugh at how Ottawa just misses out. The story of this winter. :thumbsdown:

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Me confused. We have like 6 or 7" here. The heavy banding is staying to the east. The low center seems to be losing longitude quickly and the Albany NWSFO keeps raising our totals. At 5am I was up to check on the kids school and they had raised us from 6-12" to 8-16". At 7a they went 10-20". Say what? Maybe we'll get Hudson Mohawk Convergence up the wazoo.:P

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Me confused. We have like 6 or 7" here. The heavy banding is staying to the east. The low center seems to be losing longitude quickly and the Albany NWSFO keeps raising our totals. At 5am I was up to check on the kids school and they had raised us from 6-12" to 8-16". At 7a they went 10-20". Say what? Maybe we'll get Hudson Mohawk Convergence up the wazoo.:P

I'd just ignore it...NWS forecasts are natoriously bad. Stick with Andy on WTEN. The heaviest of the snow appears to be over for the CD, but light snow looks to continue for a good part of the day.

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Me confused. We have like 6 or 7" here. The heavy banding is staying to the east. The low center seems to be losing longitude quickly and the Albany NWSFO keeps raising our totals. At 5am I was up to check on the kids school and they had raised us from 6-12" to 8-16". At 7a they went 10-20". Say what? Maybe we'll get Hudson Mohawk Convergence up the wazoo.:P

Say hasta la vista...............storm pulling ENE off CC and all the enhanced precip has retreated back into WNE. Our problem was this was too much of a quick hitter :thumbsdown:
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Another glancing blow here... two Noreasters in a row where the Hill Towns end up on the short end, but better than nothing. Maybe it's payback for the 46 inches last February. :devilsmiley:

Best estimate would be 6 inches as of 10:45 AM. There could be a tad more, but I haven't done my official measurement yet.

-SN continues and 21F.

over 7" here now with SN- and most of the banding crashing east. this is the second time this year that the 1'+ snows are just east of us ahh ill take it though. looks like the NWS will bust way high with their call of 14" at ALB.

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I never believed it, just thought it was ridonculous. I just want to know what they were thinking. They're usually not this far off. I upped my forecast from 5-10" to 6-12" yesterday and now I'm thinking that I should have stuck with 5-10". Radar is filling in a bit in Albany County and the models did hint at enhanced precip in the Cap District this afternoon. We'll see, but I'm guessing we don't break 10". Current surface map looks like it want to try to turn winds WNW down the Mohawk Valley. Hudson Valley has north winds. Maybe a bit of convergence starting. Nice little kink in Isobars.

I'd just ignore it...NWS forecasts are natoriously bad. Stick with Andy on WTEN. The heaviest of the snow appears to be over for the CD, but light snow looks to continue for a good part of the day.

post-1592-0-19283600-1294848422.gif

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It's unfortunate that a low like that over the Cape couldm't do more for us in ENY, but it comes down to the overall upper structure of the system. Some lows on CC can pound us good.

I never believed it, just thought it was ridonculous. I just want to know what they were thinking. They're usually not this far off. I upped my forecast from 5-10" to 6-12" yesterday and now I'm thinking that I should have stuck with 5-10". Radar is filling in a bit in Albany County and the models did hint at enhanced precip in the Cap District this afternoon. We'll see, but I'm guessing we don't break 10". Current surface map looks like it want to try to turn winds WNW down the Mohawk Valley. Hudson Valley has north winds. Maybe a bit of convergence starting. Nice little kink in Isobars.

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Usually a LI to CC track is near perfect for us. 3 moderate storms now...blizzard, last weeks, and this one. I've heard reports in my old neighborhood in W. CT of over 2 feet...bringing them to almost 50" on the season...unreal start to the winter for parts of SNE...and just out of our reach.

It's unfortunate that a low like that over the Cape couldm't do more for us in ENY, but it comes down to the overall upper structure of the system. Some lows on CC can pound us good.

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