wolfie09 Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 If NW of albany does see ratios 20-1 it wouldn't take much precip at all to add up..0.25-0.5 would be a nice 5-10"snow storm.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Flying MXZ Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Albany http://www.erh.noaa..../WinterPage.htm bgm http://www.erh.noaa....rmtotalsnow.php BGM upped Delaware and Otsego Counties to warnings. I'd be suprised to reach that, but it would be nice. They are pretty bullish on the threat for next week, especially considering it's a week away: .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... -- Changed Discussion --UPDATED AS OF 430 PM... MEDIUM RANGE MODELS IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT DURING THIS PERIOD WITH THE GENERAL PATTERN MAINTAINING A MAINLY ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE CONUS WITH SOME WEAKLY CYCLONIC FLOW AT TIMES AND MINOR IMPULSES DURING THE WEEKEND. A MORE SIGNIFICANT TROF AMPLIFICATION IS BEING PICKED UP BY THE ECMWF/GFS AND GEFS MOVING THROUGH THE GULF STATES AND TURNING NORTHEAST NEXT TUESDAY. FOR THE DETAILS...THERE LOOKS TO BE A CHANCE OF FLURRIES OR LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS FOR MUCH OF THE WEEKEND INTO MONDAY...MAINLY NORTH OF THE PA BORDER. A CLIPPER SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS LOWER ONTARIO ON SAT NIGHT...WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A BURST OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW ON SUNDAY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WHICH WILL BE THE MAIN FEATURES TO DEAL WITH EARLY ON. ACCUMULATIONS APPEAR RIGHT NOW TO BE LIGHT FROM THE CLIPPER WITH LOCALIZED AMOUNTS OF SEVERAL INCHES POSSIBLE IN THE LAKE FAVORED AREAS ON SUN-MON. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE AND A RETURN TO SWLY FLOW AT 850 MB WILL TEND TO CURTAIL MUCH OF ANY PRECIP LATER MONDAY. THEN...TUESDAY IS LOOKING RATHER INTERESTING AS LOW PRESSURE IS PROGGED TO DEVELOP OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES AND MOVE NORTHEAST IN THE TIME PERIOD BEYOND THIS FORECAST. THE ECMWF SOLUTION WOULD SUGGEST A LARGE AND SIGNIFICANT EAST COAST STORM WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY ACCUMULATIONS IN OUR AREA. THE GEFS ENSEMBLE MEANS TEND TO AGREE WITH THE ECMWF...WHILE THE GFS IS HINTING AT THE POTENTIAL DEVELOPMENT BUT IS A MUCH MORE OPEN WAVE AT THIS TIME. THE GFS SOLUTION HAS HOWEVER BEEN TRENDING TOWARD THE ECMWF. THIS DEFINITELY BEARS CLOSE WATCHING OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS WE FEEL THE NHEMI PATTERN IS CONDUCIVE TO FAVOR THE ECMWF AND GEFS SOLUTIONS.-- End Changed Discussion -- Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wx4cast Posted January 11, 2011 Author Share Posted January 11, 2011 I know I said I was done for the night but I have been known to stay up a bit more the night before a storm. Anyway here's the latest: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buffalo Bumble Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Snow has started here on the niagara frontier. Based on radar and BUF discussion, looks to be a quick hitter for our area, with most of the accumulation falling between now and midnight. It's nice to finally get in the game on one of these synoptic systems, even if us WNY'ers are just 2nd teamers with this one... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FEFD17 Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 The NWS is calling for 4-7 For Glens Falls. I hope and am very confident Andy buries them with the snow they don't predict and he's right as always. Andy have a good day as I know I am going to be flat out at work, then when I get out I will be plowing. If you or Jeff need anything plowed out give me a shout! I will help you guys out, as I hope you all know that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
West Point, NY Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 The NWS is calling for 4-7 For Glens Falls. I hope and am very confident Andy buries them with the snow they don't predict and he's right as always. Andy have a good day as I know I am going to be flat out at work, then when I get out I will be plowing. If you or Jeff need anything plowed out give me a shout! I will help you guys out, as I hope you all know that. Thanks.............It should be fluff like the last one and not restrict the cars in/out of the garage till I get the blower out. I may take you up on some gloppy March pasting though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stash Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Recent update from NWS ALB: .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/... -- Changed Discussion --LATEST MESOSCALE ANALYSIS SUGGESTS THE SURFACE LOW IS A BIT CLOSER TO THE COAST. BUOYS OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST AND COASTAL METARS REVEAL CONVERGENT SIGNATURES NEAR BUOY 41025 /DIAMOND SHOALS/ WITH DECENT PRESSURE FALL...NOW SHARPLY RISING. IF THESE TRENDS ARE INDEED FURTHER WEST...WE WILL NEED TO MAKE ADJUSTMENTS LATER THIS EVENING TO HEADLINES AND ACCUMULATIONS... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowgeek Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 From Alb NWSFO discussion (6:37 pm) I hope Andy's spidey senses are tingling LATEST MESOSCALE ANALYSIS SUGGESTS THE SURFACE LOW IS A BIT CLOSER TO THE COAST. BUOYS OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST AND COASTAL METARS REVEAL CONVERGENT SIGNATURES NEAR BUOY 41025 /DIAMOND SHOALS/ WITH DECENT PRESSURE FALL...NOW SHARPLY RISING. IF THESE TRENDS ARE INDEED FURTHER WEST...WE WILL NEED TO MAKE ADJUSTMENTS LATER THIS EVENING TO HEADLINES AND ACCUMULATIONS... The only word I don't like is the IF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FEFD17 Posted January 12, 2011 Share Posted January 12, 2011 Thanks.............It should be fluff like the last one and not restrict the cars in/out of the garage till I get the blower out. I may take you up on some gloppy March pasting though No matter what, if Andy or yourself need it, you can call. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Avid6eek Posted January 12, 2011 Share Posted January 12, 2011 I hope Andy's spidey senses are tingling LOL...agreed 100%. I'm extremely happy with how the system has evolved up to this point. It certainly looks like the most promising event so far this winter season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowgeek Posted January 12, 2011 Share Posted January 12, 2011 0Z surface analysis out of SPC is very intriguing. Coastal jumped NW. Hmmmmm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tornado Girl Posted January 12, 2011 Share Posted January 12, 2011 It seems that the low is a little closer to the coast than we thought it was going to be Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
West Point, NY Posted January 12, 2011 Share Posted January 12, 2011 R/S line is right on NJ coast....................that also is very promising for ENY Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tornado Girl Posted January 12, 2011 Share Posted January 12, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowgeek Posted January 12, 2011 Share Posted January 12, 2011 That's what I was thinking. I'm gittin psyched. It seems that the low is a little closer to the coast than we thought it was going to be Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tornado Girl Posted January 12, 2011 Share Posted January 12, 2011 That's what I was thinking. I'm gittin psyched. The Ohio low is transfering it's energy to the coastal....game is on Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
West Point, NY Posted January 12, 2011 Share Posted January 12, 2011 Much of South Jersey has gone over to RN/ UP. I really like that all the precip is moving to the North in NYS not NE. That shield from the primary is only going to get so far North and then setup shop and rot in place. Add the enhancement from the coastal in E. PA and we look like were in business Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Couchsachraga Posted January 12, 2011 Share Posted January 12, 2011 TG and Andy "spidey senses" +1 each Models: -1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FEFD17 Posted January 12, 2011 Share Posted January 12, 2011 Much of South Jersey has gone over to RN/ UP. I really like that all the precip is moving to the North in NYS not NE. That shield from the primary is only going to get so far North and then setup shop and rot in place. Add the enhancement from the coastal in E. PA and we look like were in business Looking real good for us up here too I take it?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stash Posted January 12, 2011 Share Posted January 12, 2011 00z NAM does go east a bit, which will certainly make those in Eastern New England happy/colder! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowgeek Posted January 12, 2011 Share Posted January 12, 2011 I hope, but it's still early in the game to call it??????? TG and Andy "spidey senses" +1 each Models: -1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowgeek Posted January 12, 2011 Share Posted January 12, 2011 Forget the NAM. It's coming west. RUC all the way. Last 2 RUC runs have Block Island in sight. 00z NAM does go east a bit, which will certainly make those in Eastern New England happy/colder! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FEFD17 Posted January 12, 2011 Share Posted January 12, 2011 I hope, but it's still early in the game to call it??????? Looking like it's Andy vs. NWS their recent update in a nutshell is scaling north of Albany back and upping the south. I sooo want Andy to laugh at them just like the last storm they got their butts waxed Andy is gonna do it again!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tornado Girl Posted January 12, 2011 Share Posted January 12, 2011 The coastal low is starting to take over....I don't see anything right now that make me want to change my thinking on this storm... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayuud Posted January 12, 2011 Share Posted January 12, 2011 I just measured solid 4 inches outside Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Couchsachraga Posted January 12, 2011 Share Posted January 12, 2011 I'm "giving" points simply as I believe they both stated that they wouldn't be surprised if it trended more to the coast / north than the models thought it would. Regardless of the outcome (precip) I give them kudos for stating their thoughts... and being right. We'll see how the rest of the storm goes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tornado Girl Posted January 12, 2011 Share Posted January 12, 2011 Mesoanalysis that shows the low is just off the MD coast 80-120 miles Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tornado Girl Posted January 12, 2011 Share Posted January 12, 2011 Looks like the NAM got it right....At least for now...The low is pretty close to the track the NAM said it would have. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted January 12, 2011 Share Posted January 12, 2011 Looks like the NAM got it right....At least for now...The low is pretty close to the track the NAM said it would have. NAM was discounted as an outlier as recent as a day or so ago. We'll see how it does in the end. Decay rate of the Primary slp is usually a wildcard. Longer it takes to xfer to coastal usually means a little better snowfall production for CNY/WNY and it also goobers up the placement of heaviest snowfall and R/S line...though in this case that is mainly an issue for the coasties. Our fate is pretty much sealed w/ a general 3-7" range, can't see it straying much from there. Best we do is likely the upper part of the range. Which is fine. We'll see if the NAM localized qpf max works out around SYR area, 00Z spits out about 0.44" for the bulk of the storm which would be ~ 6-7" w/ decent ratios. About 1+" down around here by eyeball. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tornado Girl Posted January 12, 2011 Share Posted January 12, 2011 NAM was discounted as an outlier as recent as a day or so ago. We'll see how it does in the end. Decay rate of the Primary slp is usually a wildcard. Longer it takes to xfer to coastal usually means a little better snowfall production for CNY/WNY and it also goobers up the placement of heaviest snowfall and R/S line...though in this case that is mainly an issue for the coasties. Our fate is pretty much sealed w/ a general 3-7" range, can't see it straying much from there. Best we do is likely the upper part of the range. Which is fine. We'll see if the NAM localized qpf max works out around SYR area, 00Z spits out about 0.44" for the bulk of the storm which would be ~ 6-7" w/ decent ratios. About 1+" down around here by eyeball. True..Now it's a waiting game....Ratios look to be in the 13-15 to 1 range Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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