Tornado Girl Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 SREFS our in house meso and 4Km WRF have nudged more west from early morning runs. Thinking low tracks just SE of Block Island by tomorrow early afternoon. That's a perfect track for ENY to get thumped. banding too quite possible especially over WNE. We have nudged up total a bit this AM (actually just shifted the contours W and NW) some. Still not farenough NW for Tornado Girl but the LES behind the storm looks good for the Tug.. If the air isn't to dry Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wx4cast Posted January 11, 2011 Author Share Posted January 11, 2011 If the air isn't to dry We'll have to moisten things up then.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tornado Girl Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Now that this storm is almost here...Looks like we could have another one Next week in about the same time timeframe Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stash Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 NWS ALB just extended warnings for most of the CD and WWA for much of the rest. KALB didn't even have a watch up before hand I don't believe, just a HWO for this area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tornado Girl Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 You're right Andy, The HPC model discussion does make for interesting reading. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tornado Girl Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 So far, this has been a strange La Nina this season; anyway, looking briefly at the models We could have two more systems next week one around Tue and the other maybe Fri. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Another congrats to the ENY'ers!!! Andy has this covered in spades. NAM (with the final votes to be counted) looks to have basically nailed this storm from a day and a half ago, beating every other model out there. Kind of a rarity!!! I bet ALY goes over 10" in a hurry!!! :snowman: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 NWS BUF and local mets (Including Don Paul) have upped their totals for WNY from 3-6 to 4-8. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hudsonvalley21 Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD 151 PM EST TUE JAN 11 2011 PRELIM DAY 1 QPF DISCUSSION VALID JAN 12/0000 UTC THRU JAN 13/0000 UTC REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR ...NERN U.S.... MDLS CONT TO SHOW THE OH VLY/GRT LKS MID/UPR VORTEX HANGING ON A LITTLE LONGER THAN EARLIER RUNS...WITH SOME GUID SHOWG THE CSTL LOW DVLPMENT A LITTLE SLOWER/FARTHER N. HIER RESOLUTION GUID...INCLUDING EXPERIMENTAL NAM...CONTS TO FAVOR A LOW SLGTLY CLOSER TO THE CST. OPERATION GLOBAL GUID IS SHOWG THE LOW LIFTG TWD THE NE A LITTLE FASTER THAN THE HIER RESOLUTION GUID. THE LONGER THE MORE INLAND MIDLVL LOW HANGS ON...THE BETTER CHC FOR MORE DRY SLOT DVLPMENT INTO THE MID ATLC...WITH THE ASSOCD BACK EDGE OF THE PCPN SHIELD LIFTG NEWD FASTER. 12Z EC JUST ARRIVED AND HAS LIFTED THE AREA OF PCPN NEWD. MSTR IS SOMEWHAT LIMITED WITH THIS SYS...BUT THERE IS A PLUME OF DEEPER ATLC/TRPCL MSTR LIFTG NWD ALNG THE SERN U.S. CST THAT SHLD EVENTUALLY GET DRAWN INTO THE SYS LATER TNGT/WED. MDLS SHOW STG UPR JET DYNAMICS DVLPG LATER THIS EVE OVR THE MID ATLC THAT QUICKLY LIFTS NEWD ON WED. IMPRVS UPR LVL DVRG/DIFL/HGT FALLS AND ASSOCD DEEP LYRD ASCENT THAT WL RESULT IN RAPID PCPN DVLPMENT LATER THIS EVE ALNG THE MID ATLC CST THAT WL EXPAND INTO SRN NEW ENG AND ALNG THE NEW ENG CST ON WED. VRY STG WAA/ISENTROPIC LIFT IS ALRDY UNDERWAY OVR THE MID ATLC REGION AND WL CONT TO INTENSIFY INTO TNGT AS THE SFC/8H LOW BEGINS TO DVLP WITH A SRLY LLJ PROVIDG STGR MSTR FLUX/WAA INTO THE REGION. MANUAL QPF LEANED ON THE GLOBAL GUID...BUT DID PULL SOME HVIER PCPN WWD ASSOCD WITH THE STGR E/NE FLOW THAT WL SUPPORT UPSLOPE ALNG THE N/S ELEVS. MOST GUID...INCLUDING ALL THE SREF/GEFS/EC ENSEMBLES...ARE SHOWG SUPPORT FOR A BROAD REGION OF ONE INCH LIQ ACRS SERN NEW ENG WITH LGTR AMTS WWD INTO THE OH VLY AND GRT LKS. DVLPG NRLY FLOW OVR THE GRT LKS WL SUPPORT LK EFFECT SNOWS TO THE S OF THE GRT LKS...WITH SOME UPSLOPE ALNG THE WRN SLOPES OF THE APLCHNS CONTRIBUTING TO LCLLY HVIER ACCUMS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Went slightly up, 225pm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wx4cast Posted January 11, 2011 Author Share Posted January 11, 2011 So far, this has been a strange La Nina this season; anyway, looking briefly at the models We could have two more systems next week one around Tue and the other maybe Fri. I'm getting too old for this! Another congrats to the ENY'ers!!! Andy has this covered in spades. NAM (with the final votes to be counted) looks to have basically nailed this storm from a day and a half ago, beating every other model out there. Kind of a rarity!!! I bet ALY goes over 10" in a hurry!!! :snowman: Thank you George. Yes it is a rarity for the NAM but once in awhile it is good and it was good on the Fri-Sat system, too. And I agree Albany looks good for 10" easy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Andyace Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Why does this not show oneida county? Went slightly up, 225pm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Why does this not show oneida county? This is only for albany's cwa, im pretty sure bgm has 1 somewhere lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowgeek Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 I like the position of the coastal right now. It seems to be more in line with the NAM. I don't like that the primary is still strengthening as of 19Z. Die primary, die Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 kbgm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 I like the position of the coastal right now. It seems to be more in line with the NAM. I don't like that the primary is still strengthening as of 19Z. Die primary, die No!!!! lol. The longer that strengthens/doesnt weak, the more snow I get. Its down to 1014mb as of 2pm or 19z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tornado Girl Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 18z NAM...We will see what the 18z GFS has to say Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wx4cast Posted January 11, 2011 Author Share Posted January 11, 2011 BTW- Cuedos to Tornado Girl on an earlier post in this thread where she mentioned watch for things to start "earlier". Tip of the cap to you. Here is the 12z 4Km WRF output. 24 hour total QPF for 12z Tomorrow and for the next 24 our period. Add them up for storm total QPF. It has shifted things a tick east vs. its zero runs but it too has been decent to good as of late, too. I'm going to sign-off now. I have to head down south to get my daughter from her basketball practice then when I come back home its a very early bed-time for me. We're starting NEWS10 in the AM @ 430. (If anyone cares we'll also be streaming the AM on-line too; just go to our website). A long day has been planned for me by the hype-meister media machine. I have to be in by 2AM the latest. Night All, sweet dreams of dendrites! AG Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 NAM cut down on totals to the south, still about the same here.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tornado Girl Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 BTW- Cuedos to Tornado Girl on an earlier post in this thread where she mentioned watch for things to start "earlier". Tip of the cap to you. Here is the 12z 4Km WRF output. 24 hour total QPF for 12z Tomorrow and for the next 24 our period. Add them up for storm total QPF. It has shifted things a tick east vs. its zero runs but it too has been decent to good as of late, too. I'm going to sign-off now. I have to head down south to get my daughter from her basketball practice then when I come back home its a very early bed-time for me. We're starting NEWS10 in the AM @ 430. (If anyone cares we'll also be streaming the AM on-line too; just go to our website). A long day has been planned for me by the hype-meister media machine. I have to be in by 2AM the latest. Night All, sweet dreams of dendrites! AG Dealing with the Hype-meister will be worse than the storm...it will make it a very long day Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayuud Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 NAM cut down on totals to the south, still about the same here.. 2.38 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 BTW- Cuedos to Tornado Girl on an earlier post in this thread where she mentioned watch for things to start "earlier". Tip of the cap to you. Here is the 12z 4Km WRF output. 24 hour total QPF for 12z Tomorrow and for the next 24 our period. Add them up for storm total QPF. It has shifted things a tick east vs. its zero runs but it too has been decent to good as of late, too. I'm going to sign-off now. I have to head down south to get my daughter from her basketball practice then when I come back home its a very early bed-time for me. We're starting NEWS10 in the AM @ 430. (If anyone cares we'll also be streaming the AM on-line too; just go to our website). A long day has been planned for me by the hype-meister media machine. I have to be in by 2AM the latest. Night All, sweet dreams of dendrites! AG Nice job Andy! I'll pull up the stream from over here in "scrap-land" and watch the excitement (and beads of sweat) show on your face!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WNYLakeEffect Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Steady -SN to SN. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNYWeather Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Went slightly up, 225pm Where'd you find that graphic? I was looking on their site and didnt find it. Thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 ALbany snowmap now brings 6" into southern herkimer county.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Where'd you find that graphic? I was looking on their site and didnt find it. Thanks Albany http://www.erh.noaa.gov/er/aly/WinterPage.htm bgm http://www.erh.noaa.gov/bgm/winter/stormtotal/stormtotalsnow.php Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNYWeather Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Albany http://www.erh.noaa..../WinterPage.htm bgm http://www.erh.noaa....rmtotalsnow.php thank you very much! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Albany http://www.erh.noaa.gov/er/aly/WinterPage.htm bgm http://www.erh.noaa.gov/bgm/winter/stormtotal/stormtotalsnow.php I wish BUF would get that.. What a great product. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 NWS in ALB BUT SOME TRENDS TOWARD20 TO 1 POSSIBLE NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT THE HIGH SNOW RATIOS ALSO CONTRIBUTING TO THE ADVISORY LEVEL SNOWS IN THE WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY AND SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS TO GFL AREA. PLUMES AND PROBABILITIES FOR VARIOUS QPF SUPPORT TOTAL SNOWS AROUND WARNING LEVELS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tornado Girl Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 18z GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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