Wx4cast Posted January 11, 2011 Author Share Posted January 11, 2011 What's with the unexpected little road covering event this morning Andy? Is your in house similar to the 6z nam output? Weak warm air advection nothing more causing the flurries now. Also some shallow forcing below 5K feet. The in house meso model is even better for the HV and up our way Jeff. I may not be done with adjusting the 5-9 and 9-14 inches contours NW. Will hold off on such until after 18z data. SREF may be the winner on this storm. If anything it is a good compromise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wx4cast Posted January 11, 2011 Author Share Posted January 11, 2011 Right now, this looks like a NYC, Long Island, up to Portland storm. I will get light snow Wednesday...If I'm real good, I might get some moderate snow for a few hours No moderate snow for you! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Avid6eek Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Seems a bit odd that the NWS hasn't issued any advisories for the immediate capital district. They must be looking for the best coin to flip to see if we should be under a WWA or WSW. Of the 3 local stations, Andy is the most conservative at this point. The other stations put us at warning criteria even as far west as Schenectady/Montgomery county. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wx4cast Posted January 11, 2011 Author Share Posted January 11, 2011 Seems a bit odd that the NWS hasn't issued any advisories for the immediate capital district. They must be looking for the best coin to flip to see if we should be under a WWA or WSW. Of the 3 local stations, Andy is the most conservative at this point. The other stations put us at warning criteria even as far west as Schenectady/Montgomery county. I think we are all pretty close as I have looked at the "others" maps for snowfall on their websites. Also I would rather add to snowfall amounts vs subtracting from them. Lastly, just so you know, I personally do not like NWS winter weather nomenclature as it relates to Watches, warnings and advisories. MOST people haven't a clue what they mean. Should per chance a watch be issued then lowered most people see it as "hey we didn't get the storm that was forecast". IMO Watches and warnings tend to hype an event; I believe in just saying "hey its going to snow and here is what you're going to get". No need to waste the viewers time explaining one part of the DMA is under a warning/watch while another part is not under anything or an advisory. Often times too my forecast will not match up with the NWS'. I may be forecasting warning snowfall where they only have an advisory or visa versa. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
West Point, NY Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 That's what I figured but was expecting to wake up to clear and near zero. There is actually some minor accumulation on the roads between Milton and Colonie. About half an inch in Milton at 6 am. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNYWeather Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 SREFS our in house meso and 4Km WRF have nudged more west from early morning runs. Thinking low tracks just SE of Block Island by tomorrow early afternoon. That's a perfect track for ENY to get thumped. banding too quite possible especially over WNE. We have nudged up total a bit this AM (actually just shifted the contours W and NW) some. Still not farenough NW for Tornado Girl but the LES behind the storm looks good for the Tug.. Looks like all of Oneida County should get something out of this. The snowmobile dependent business in this area must be taking a bit hit this year and this will help a little. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wx4cast Posted January 11, 2011 Author Share Posted January 11, 2011 That's what I figured but was expecting to wake up to clear and near zero. There is actually some minor accumulation on the roads between Milton and Colonie. About half an inch in Milton at 6 am. I know it surprised me too. The Northway was snow covered from Moreau south 12 then again around the "Twins" to Latham. 09z SREF has 3/4" for Albany and almost that much for Saratoga. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
West Point, NY Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Worst has got to be when you are forecasting advisory snow and NWS has WSW up and your obligated to include that in your forecast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wx4cast Posted January 11, 2011 Author Share Posted January 11, 2011 Worst has got to be when you are forecasting advisory snow and NWS has WSW up and your obligated to include that in your forecast We're (TV) NOT obligated to run with NWS stuff of any kind. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
West Point, NY Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Really? I always thought all private outlets were obligated to use NWS warnings as not to "confuse" people Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FEFD17 Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Weak warm air advection nothing more causing the flurries now. Also some shallow forcing below 5K feet. The in house meso model is even better for the HV and up our way Jeff. I may not be done with adjusting the 5-9 and 9-14 inches contours NW. Will hold off on such until after 18z data. SREF may be the winner on this storm. If anything it is a good compromise. I was going to ask you that very question, if there will/may be a possible adjustment to the map. It seems like the cut off point has been real sharp-- possibly more so in recent winters than others. Is that a variable with every storm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wx4cast Posted January 11, 2011 Author Share Posted January 11, 2011 Looks like it will start earlier too. New Data has snow developing south to north across the HV to LG between 10pm and 2am. New meso run also has possible sleet mixing in over SW CT (which is plausible esp if the low moves close to BID and rapidly deepens...CAP's rule for such a scenario) Starting to see better potential for where bands will set up too. Looks like a classic (large and wide band) HV east to WNE around 4-8 am tomorrow morning perhaps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wx4cast Posted January 11, 2011 Author Share Posted January 11, 2011 I was going to ask you that very question, if there will/may be a possible adjustment to the map. It seems like the cut off point has been real sharp-- possibly more so in recent winters than others. Is that a variable with every storm? Past several winters have had sharp cut-off between snow vs no snow. And even in the snow area between light vs heavy. Heavy convective snowbands that often develop in these Nor'easters wreak havoc on snow totals too. Sometimes you won't know if or where the bands will "set-up" until less than 12 hours of the event (or even sometimes you have to wait for it to begin). Often with bands under it heavy snow fall rates either side of sinking/subsidence and lesser snowfall rates. As for additional adjustments to the bands- its possible and/or maybe just keep the bands as they are and adjust the ranges for the respective bands. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FEFD17 Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Really? I always thought all private outlets were obligated to use NWS warnings as not to "confuse" people Confusion in a government affiliated organization?? No way.…lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wx4cast Posted January 11, 2011 Author Share Posted January 11, 2011 Confusion in a government affiliated organization?? No way.…lol Nope. WE can't issue our own (at least publicly) but to private clients (who don't issue the forecasts for PUBLIC dissemination we can). TV is only required legally by the FCC and gov't to issue statements for the two following situations: An attack on the U.S. or an attack on the President. That is all that a TV station is required to broadcast as it relates to gov't warnings. However, once we do broadcast other warnings, technically we cannot alter them in anyway. Also broadcasting severe wx stuff opens up a can of worms and potential FCC investigations if we do not provide close-captioning and additional graphically information as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stash Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Growing up in Conencticut, this was ALWAYS an issue. CT TV news outlets covered the entire state since its such a small one...but the state also happens to be covered by 3 NWS forecast offices (Albany, Taunton, and Brookhaven). In many storms you would have part of a state under one headline, while your neighbor one county over may be in another or none at all. Since ALB has been late to the game in the past with headlines, many times the other 7 counties in CT would have a headline, but Litchfield did not yet...TV people tried to explain why, and assure folks that despite no headline yet, Litchfield would get the most snow (as they frequently do). We're (TV) NOT obligated to run with NWS stuff of any kind. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FEFD17 Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Past several winters have had sharp cut-off between snow vs no snow. And even in the snow area between light vs heavy. Heavy convective snowbands that often develop in these Nor'easters wreak havoc on snow totals too. Sometimes you won't know if or where the bands will "set-up" until less than 12 hours of the event (or even sometimes you have to wait for it to begin). Often with bands under it heavy snow fall rates either side of sinking/subsidence and lesser snowfall rates. As for additional adjustments to the bands- its possible and/or maybe just keep the bands as they are and adjust the ranges for the respective bands. I noticed that with the last storm, I was plowing a resident on School Street in Hudson Falls, They had maybe 4 inches. As far as adjusting the contours vs the totals, as long as your upping the total that's fine!! Gotta call gotta run,Thanks Andy!! Have a good day! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 i like the idea of splitting out synoptic storms threats into their own thread.....i think we should have kept using your storms thread for the last event instead of migrating back into the Discussion thread. not sure what others think though. thanks for your thoughts as usual. i think the lower HV looks like a great spot for this one. i think all of NY state along the thruway sees some snow. TG in a better spot than us up here, but i think the brunt stays S and E of her too. i just wish heights on the East coast would rise quicker so that it be a true hugger, rather than moving ENE from the Cape. i think that southern lead wave along the gulf coast really screws that up by dampening heights initially. still time to adjust i suppose. well that was a pretty good call as for MBY Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wx4cast Posted January 11, 2011 Author Share Posted January 11, 2011 Going with a blend of GFS and NAM QP for Albany around .7-.75 at 15:1 ratio. This blend is actually close to the SREF QP forecast for Albany (from 09z run). Still have some concern for amounts just west and north of Albany. For now will hold them as they is and punt to the next shift.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 updated Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hudsonvalley21 Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Going with a blend of GFS and NAM QP for Albany around .7-.75 at 15:1 ratio. This blend is actually close to the SREF QP forecast for Albany (from 09z run). Still have some concern for amounts just west and north of Albany. For now will hold them as they is and punt to the next shift.... I assume your snow map's 14-18 extends down into Orange and Dutchess counties. Thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 I have been out here in Allegany County for three days and they are forecasting 3-5" ...not from the coastal development. I find it odd that there isn't even a watch for Albany County...to be safe. Also not even a winter wx advisory despite the fact that they are forecasting 2-4" overnight and again2-4" tomorrow. Hmm NAM was pretty juicy right to the CD.... Guess I'll get a surprise for better or worse when I get home around 11 PM. Maybe I'll be just ahead of the snowfall as I drove home from around Lake Canandaigua. See you all later (so to speak) Going with a blend of GFS and NAM QP for Albany around .7-.75 at 15:1 ratio. This blend is actually close to the SREF QP forecast for Albany (from 09z run). Still have some concern for amounts just west and north of Albany. For now will hold them as they is and punt to the next shift.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wx4cast Posted January 11, 2011 Author Share Posted January 11, 2011 I assume your snow map's 14-18 extends down into Orange and Dutchess counties. Thanks Yes.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wx4cast Posted January 11, 2011 Author Share Posted January 11, 2011 updated Considering GFS QP is up @ 12z this map is wrong IMO...it also looks like the map put out earlier this morning Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Considering GFS QP is up @ 12z this map is wrong IMO...it also looks like the map put out earlier this morning Yea my apologies, i meant updated from the one yesterday .. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ENYsnow Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Considering GFS QP is up @ 12z this map is wrong IMO...it also looks like the map put out earlier this morning not sure how useful the suny mm5 is but it definitely agreeswith the nam as far as track and precipitation go.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 This would be a pretty good snowfall for most of the area with15-1 ratios.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wx4cast Posted January 11, 2011 Author Share Posted January 11, 2011 not sure how useful the suny mm5 is but it definitely agreeswith the nam as far as track and precipitation go.. Considering that it is a derivative of the NAM it makes sense to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ENYsnow Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 looks like ALY finally put up WSW'S.. URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY 1155 AM EST TUE JAN 11 2011 NYZ047>052-120100- /O.EXB.KALY.WS.W.0002.110112T0500Z-110113T0000Z/ SCHOHARIE-WESTERN SCHENECTADY-EASTERN SCHENECTADY- SOUTHERN SARATOGA-WESTERN ALBANY-EASTERN ALBANY- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...COBLESKILL...MIDDLEBURGH...DELANSON... ESPERANCE...DUANESBURG...SCHENECTADY...ROTTERDAM...BALLSTON SPA... MECHANICVILLE...WATERFORD...ALTAMONT...ALBANY 1155 AM EST TUE JAN 11 2011 ...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 7 PM EST WEDNESDAY... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN ALBANY HAS ISSUED A WINTER STORM WARNING FOR HEAVY SNOW...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 7 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR THE GREATER CAPITAL DISTRICT AND NORTHERN CATSKILLS. * LOCATIONS: GREATER CAPITAL DISTRICT AND NORTHERN CATSKILLS. * HAZARDS: HEAVY SNOWFALL. * ACCUMULATIONS: 6 TO 12 INCHES OF SNOW. * TIMING: SNOW MOVES IN BEFORE OR AROUND MIDNIGHT...AND RAPIDLY BECOMES STEADIER AND HEAVIER LATE TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING. SNOWFALL RATES OF A HALF AN INCH TO AROUND AN INCH PER HOUR. * IMPACTS: HAZARDOUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. VISIBILITIES WILL BE POOR...FREQUENTLY LESS THAN HALF A MILE. THE COMMUTE WEDNESDAY MORNING WILL BE DIFFICULT. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A WINTER STORM WARNING MEANS SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF SNOW ARE EXPECTED TO OCCUR. THIS WILL MAKE TRAVEL VERY HAZARDOUS OR IMPOSSIBLE. && Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 hpc THE NAM MAY BE A LITTLE SSE OF THE OBSERVED SFC LOW POSN AND TO A GREATER EXTENT THE GFS APPEARS TO BE INITIALIZED TOO FAR EWD. CONTINUING FROM INITIALIZATION TIME THE GFS REMAINS EWD OF THE NAM FOR THE DURATION OF TIME THAT THE SYSTEM AFFECTS THE EAST COAST. AFOREMENTIONED CONSIDERATIONS RECOMMEND A COMPROMISE AMONG THE NAM/00Z ECMWF/09Z SREF MEAN WITH SOME IDEAS FROM LATEST RUC RUNS ALSO LIKELY PROVING TO BE HELPFUL. THE COMPROMISE OF THE SREF MEAN/ECMWF WITH THE NAM ACCOUNTS FOR THE FACT THAT THE NAM LEANS TO THE SLOWER SIDE OF THE NON-GFS GUIDANCE SPREAD DURING WED INTO WED NIGHT AND SOMETIMES HAS SLOW BIASES Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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