ayuud Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Here are some of my preliminary (first call numbers) for a few locations: Along and north of the Thruway to Gloversville (including Tornado Girl and Friends ) and from Gloversville to north of Saratoga Springs (West Mtn and FEFD area) onto RUT: 2-5 inches. South of I-90 to the S'rn Tier east to Otsego, Delaware, Schoharie, Montgomery, Schenectady,NW Greene and Western Albany County (Logan's home): 3-6". Rest of County Albany-Saratoga County to SVT: 5-9" Eastern Green county and Eastern Ulster County County to Columbia County and Berkshire County: 9-15 with 12" + most probably from along and south of a SWF-Copake-Great Barrington Line. Could see 12-15 inches around POU to the Litchfield Hills. Colleagues and I using a blend of EC/GEFS/SREF to come up with this snowfall. Again first call subject to change as always. Map to follow a bit later this afternoon. How much you think for my area? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 LOL the NAM needs to give it up ..Stop trying to drag us back in Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FEFD17 Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 How much confidence is there that this will move/track NW or SE? Or when is " final call" for the totals?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wx4cast Posted January 10, 2011 Author Share Posted January 10, 2011 How much confidence is there that this will move/track NW or SE? Or when is " final call" for the totals?? I think its a pretty good first call..better one to be made tonight with 00z data for sure. Looks pretty solid that the coastal low will track near the BM by Wed. It will also be a fairly rapid moving storm, too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FEFD17 Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 LOL the NAM needs to give it up ..Stop trying to drag us back in Isn't that the second consecutive (?) run of the NAM saying this? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FEFD17 Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 I think its a pretty good first call..better one to be made tonight with 00z data for sure. Looks pretty solid that the coastal low will track near the BM by Wed. It will also be a fairly rapid moving storm, too. Thanks Andy!! I appreciate your time on this, I will admit that I am tired of the SNE cashing in this year. It is what it is but yes it sucks for us too. I am having some trouble figuring out the blocking that holds things to the south while the models say different. I know that they cannot be read verbatim, however the spread of difference to me is huge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stash Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 I used to joke that in any given storm, there's some off hour 18z NAM run that will hammer us...at least once leading up to the storm. I think Andy has called it WRFless, which is sometimes true. It has its uses...its just sometimes tough to find them! Its actually done a bit "better" lately, but still, unless other globals jump on board tonight, I wouldn't even look at it. Edit: meaning wouldn't look at it by itself...as a blend, fine. LOL the NAM needs to give it up ..Stop trying to drag us back in Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wx4cast Posted January 10, 2011 Author Share Posted January 10, 2011 Thanks Andy!! I appreciate your time on this, I will admit that I am tired of the SNE cashing in this year. It is what it is but yes it sucks for us too. I am having some trouble figuring out the blocking that holds things to the south while the models say different. I know that they cannot be read verbatim, however the spread of difference to me is huge. It is what it is but there is still a lot of winter left. I used to joke that in any given storm, there's some off hour 18z NAM run that will hammer us...at least once leading up to the storm. I think Andy has called it WRFless, which is sometimes true. It has its uses...its just sometimes tough to find them! Its actually done a bit "better" lately, but still, unless other globals jump on board tonight, I wouldn't even look at it. Edit: meaning wouldn't look at it by itself...as a blend, fine. I have called it such in the past. It HAS been decent "as of late" especially w/in 48 hours. It and its derivatives were excellent on the Friday/Saturday storm. It could be right on this one too. am going to pay very close attention to the weather X NC esp around AVL and RDU this evening if they get hammered with 7" or more then the heavier snow has (IMO) a very good chance of sliding up NNE across the S'rn Megapolis to NYC and even Albany. My "spidey" senses are a bit on edge with this storm- it might have a BIG surprise up its sleeve inside of 24 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowgeek Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 My gut tells me that we could get a surprise too.....hope your spidey senses are sensing an upcoming NW track....I can remember other times when the NAM insisted on a NW track by itself and it happened (other times its on crack)....as they say in the model threads, the 0Z runs will be crucial It is what it is but there is still a lot of winter left. I have called it such in the past. It HAS been decent "as of late" especially w/in 48 hours. It and its derivatives were excellent on the Friday/Saturday storm. It could be right on this one too. am going to pay very close attention to the weather X NC esp around AVL and RDU this evening if they get hammered with 7" or more then the heavier snow has (IMO) a very good chance of sliding up NNE across the S'rn Megapolis to NYC and even Albany. My "spidey" senses are a bit on edge with this storm- it might have a BIG surprise up its sleeve inside of 24 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tornado Girl Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 The GFS and NAM can't agree on the strength of this storm. As for QPF, the Operational Models have less precipitation than the High Resolution Models. So I guess we will see. But I think a blend of GFS, NAM, and the Euro is the way to go... The Euro shows this bombing out. with a 6-14 inch snow storm form DC up to Portland. The Canadian is not too bad, but it has it a little to far west for my likening . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 kalb snow totals Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 GEFS means Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wx4cast Posted January 10, 2011 Author Share Posted January 10, 2011 The GFS and NAM can't agree on the strength of this storm. As for QPF, the Operational Models have less precipitation than the High Resolution Models. So I guess we will see. But I think a blend of GFS, NAM, and the Euro is the way to go... The Euro shows this bombing out. with a 6-14 inch snow storm form DC up to Portland. The Canadian is not too bad, but it has it a little to far west for my likening . Bombs away I think especially once it gets north of the northwall of the Gulfstream. That's why it could still nudge w of the track closer to the NAM or between it and the SREF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tornado Girl Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Bombs away I think especially once it gets north of the northwall of the Gulfstream. That's why it could still nudge w of the track closer to the NAM or between it and the SREF. Very true Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
West Point, NY Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Bombs away I think especially once it gets north of the northwall of the Gulfstream. That's why it could still nudge w of the track closer to the NAM or between it and the SREF. Need to get the convection going off the SE coast to pump the ridge Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wx4cast Posted January 10, 2011 Author Share Posted January 10, 2011 Need to get the convection going off the SE coast to pump the ridge See what you can do about it! ;-) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Couchsachraga Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Thinking back over the storms the past 2 months it seems most of them have ended up trending more NW than had been thought 36-48 hours out. Do the results of past events get fed back in to the models, and if so how frequently? Sorry for what is a fairly basic question... but I've been wondering how dynamic the "model learning process" is, especially after some of the comments a while back about the "new" GFS having less of a bias. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 FWIW all the gfs indv members are west of the op, 10 of the members bring .5-.75 into cny.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowgeek Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 When I was at SUNYA for Atmospheric Science in the 80's there was always someone who would find a buoy report showing that the storm was deepening faster and closer to the coast than forecast. It didn't always happen, but it was always exciting in the moment. Let's hope that ridge gets pumped up and the Gulf Stream gets juiced up and thunderstorms get rolling off the coast and the baroclinic zone is stronger than forecast and closer to the coast and.....................................we get pummeled. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowgeek Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Where do u get the 6Z and 18Z individual members? I don't see it on psu ewall and Raleigh hasn't updated yet? Thanks FWIW all the gfs indv members are west of the op, 10 of the members bring .5-.75 into cny.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
West Point, NY Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 This is definitely one of the more disjointed, unimpressive looking systems in it's embryonic stages. While the southern system was impressive yesterday, it has sheared out and the cloud tops have warmed. The radar returns along the SE coast are also scattered. While I realize a lot will change tomorrow to bury the NY-BOS corridor in a foot of snow, for something originating in the Deep South, I do not get good vibes about this one..............Hope I am wrong (and Andy is correct as usual). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Where do u get the 6Z and 18Z individual members? I don't see it on psu ewall and Raleigh hasn't updated yet? Thanks They were posted by earthlgiht in the nyc thread ... Not sure were he gets them maybe paysite.. http://www.americanw...d/page__st__360 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowgeek Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 I'd be more worried about seeing convection firing up off the coast which should support cyclogenesis. A solid precip shield should develop as it heads north and hopefully rides up our way. This is definitely one of the more disjointed, unimpressive looking systems in it's embryonic stages. While the southern system was impressive yesterday, it has sheared out and the cloud tops have warmed. The radar returns along the SE coast are also scattered. While I realize a lot will change tomorrow to bury the NY-BOS corridor in a foot of snow, for something originating in the Deep South, I do not get good vibes about this one..............Hope I am wrong (and Andy is correct as usual). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wx4cast Posted January 11, 2011 Author Share Posted January 11, 2011 This is definitely one of the more disjointed, unimpressive looking systems in it's embryonic stages. While the southern system was impressive yesterday, it has sheared out and the cloud tops have warmed. The radar returns along the SE coast are also scattered. While I realize a lot will change tomorrow to bury the NY-BOS corridor in a foot of snow, for something originating in the Deep South, I do not get good vibes about this one..............Hope I am wrong (and Andy is correct as usual). Wait 'til the phasing begins. It will be impressive. Too bad its going to be a fast mover though and also during the time of energy-transference to the coastal (around 12z Wed) we'll lose a bit of lift X ENY and WNE for a couple few hours. Still its the challenge of the forecast vs the actual event for me. If you get both then its ecsatsy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tornado Girl Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tornado Girl Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 The UK QPF forecast NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tornado Girl Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Right now, this looks like a NYC, Long Island, up to Portland storm. I will get light snow Wednesday...If I'm real good, I might get some moderate snow for a few hours Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 6z nam Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wx4cast Posted January 11, 2011 Author Share Posted January 11, 2011 SREFS our in house meso and 4Km WRF have nudged more west from early morning runs. Thinking low tracks just SE of Block Island by tomorrow early afternoon. That's a perfect track for ENY to get thumped. banding too quite possible especially over WNE. We have nudged up total a bit this AM (actually just shifted the contours W and NW) some. Still not farenough NW for Tornado Girl but the LES behind the storm looks good for the Tug.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
West Point, NY Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 What's with the unexpected little road covering event this morning Andy? Is your in house similar to the 6z nam output? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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