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Inverted Trough/ Redeveloper Disco Jan 7-9 - Part III


Baroclinic Zone

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I was actually really surprised to hear Burbank. He was pretty aggressive in saying this is a nothing event/overblown in terms of advisories/warnings.

It's make or break now, we'll see it expand or we'll watch OES banded snows provide quite a bit of snow and the inverted trough deux in CT.

1-3/2-4 and maybe some higher amounts in bands from the ocean or along the trough. It's possible some of the lowest totals are actually in the warning area.

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I was actually really surprised to hear Burbank. He was pretty aggressive in saying this is a nothing event/overblown in terms of advisories/warnings.

It's make or break now, we'll see it expand or we'll watch OES banded snows provide quite a bit of snow and the inverted trough deux in CT.

1-3/2-4 and maybe some higher amounts in bands from the ocean or along the trough. It's possible some of the lowest totals are actually in the warning area.

Yeah I think E CT looks best right now to be honest. Definitely see that inverted trough setting up there.

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He's right but it's not really so much that it's a quick mover...it's just too far east. When the rotation point is south of us already and the precip isn't falling...

yes but how much precip from the inv trough freature/ (qpf) wise.

oes has clipped me with a weenie flakes now to and has now almost reached NW ri. they will collide with inv. trough soon.

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Yeah I think E CT looks best right now to be honest. Definitely see that inverted trough setting up there.

Burbank very aggressive in essentially saying he thinks the warnings and advisories bust:

http://weather.boston.cbslocal.com/US/MA/Boston.html

I think he's probably downplaying a bit the snow potential in CT and parts of RI.

He's saying 3 maybe 4" down here...2 or so Boston

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He's right but it's not really so much that it's a quick mover...it's just too far east. When the rotation point is south of us already and the precip isn't falling...

could this inv. trough turn into a damn firehose?

i think i see what you mean as far as pivot point goes (latitude wise) but this thing is just exloding out there on the WV Loop.....perhaps bombogenesis? could this thing stair step it's way to the NE and curl right up 41/ 69.5

A

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Here's Burbank....keep in mind he's really stressing the lower totals and only expects 3" on the Cape and maybe a 4" here and there.

I think it's a little bold to change that much yet, but we'll know by 9 one way or the other. It's doing it's thing now.

Hopefully your area can get in on some of the good snows...and they dont all end up just to your east and west

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could this inv. trough turn into a damn firehose?

i think i see what you mean as far as pivot point goes (latitude wise) but this thing is just exloding out there on the WV Loop.....perhaps bombogenesis? could this thing stair step it's way to the NE and curl right up 41/ 69.5

A

It's a reasonably impressive low. KTAN or one of the others explained specifically why this wasn't able to generate an impressive precip shield yesterday with regards to how the mid-level centers were interacting. This is one of the very, very few times you'll see a water vapor loop erupt with deep moisture with very litle to show out underneath. We have the same old problem of not much inflow with diffuse low-mid level centers for right now. That'll change but not until it's already E.

OES and trough or bust. I think BB may be over downplaying the trough snows in SE CT/SW RI. Those could become very intense. OES could be pretty darn good too.

I don't think the 18z was a fluke, I think the models probably busted but we shall see. King Euro actually up ticked a little and had .5 pretty well established so I still have hope.

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ch.7 got down a lot on accum. too. Nothing west of 495 really. But the map sucks in general. 0" for Tolland? lol

Widespread 1-3" east of 495 with basically nothing in Ct..and a 3-5 circle of near the cape.

http://www1.whdh.com/weather/

I'm not sure why they are all downplaying the trough so much.

That said, it looks like crap and has all day. It's impressive looking but you can see the main storm dynamics rocketing easterly as the second center develops way out in the ocean.

http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?product=N0R&rid=box&loop=yes

That said aside of the lollis for OES and the trough, the WHDH/WBZ maps are very similar to what I've been saying most of the day which is 1-3" was the widespread snow, 2-4/3-6 right on the coast. I thought when I first signed on today there was more potential, especially with the Euro being a good hit, but ugh.

Phil I think it's OES or bust for me. 1-3/2-4 is in serious jeopardy here.

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Low is probably sub 987mb right now, buoy SE of ACK reporting a 987mb pressure and pressure falling rapidly. On the order of -4mb/3hr, greater than 1mb/hr falls. Low looks to be trying to curl more towards the NE rather than ENE. I think the Cape and Islands will get into the CCB later on this evening.

Very impressive sat sig at this stage

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Had some -SN with OES, but nothing really. Still only a coating for the event. Not expecting much of anything here. Trough too far SW (again). SE CT/ S RI look to do best. Wouldn't be surprised to see a toned down version of yesterday's snows in these areas.

Here...another D-1". I'll await WED's fun. Early call is 6-12"

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Low is probably sub 987mb right now, buoy SE of ACK reporting a 987mb pressure and pressure falling rapidly. On the order of -4mb/3hr, greater than 1mb/hr falls. Low looks to be trying to curl more towards the NE rather than ENE. I think the Cape and Islands will get into the CCB later on this evening.

Thing is the mid level centers are adjusting east. We may have a major league save at the last minute, but the radars are both drying rapidly. I hope it's temporary.

http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?product=N0R&rid=okx&loop=yes

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Perfect winter day, fresh snow followed by gray skies with persistent micro flakes in the air.

Now we once again have some very light snow and I love how on the radar the tip of that plume of moisture is pointing right up through Htfd towards this area. Hopefully we can get it set up so it streams right up towards the Monads for the evening.

Might have to coin a new acronym for the board - As Kevin Thought ( AKT )

:lol:

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Very impressive sat sig at this stage

The most impressive part of the pattern is to our south right now at the surface. Extremely deep cold cloud tops. I would not be surprised to see some of those deep cloud tops to the east of the low swing northwestward into the region, those would probably produce a lot of snow.

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