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Inverted Trough/ Redeveloper Disco Jan 7-9 - Part III


Baroclinic Zone

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1-3 west of River

3-5 east of river south and east of ORH to 495 south of BOS

4-8 south of there and

5-10 for far SE Mass

I actually wouldn't be surprised if NE CT jackpots. Some of the mesoscale models have some additional convergence up there and a relative QPF max.

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What do you mean "more classic fashion"...I haven't lived out here long enough to know.

http://www.twisterdata.com/index.php?prog=forecast&model=NAM&grid=221&model_yyyy=2011&model_mm=01&model_dd=08&model_init_hh=18&fhour=12&parameter=TMPC&level=850&unit=MB&maximize=n&mode=singlemap&sounding=n&output=image&view=large&archive=false

The OES will align with the 8h flow generally. It's not a great mystery as to how it will align so long as we can trust the NAM profiles. You can flip through those maps and see that right now it's a light easterly flow but comes gradually ENE NE NNE...which eventually favors the south shore, cape and perhaps C.A.

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yeah. as the flow starts to shift i'd think BOS to your area will get a little added enhancement

You too actually but it always seems that once the flow goes N to favor you it's transient. I don't know what to make of the OES potential. Temps are close but it's already firing in very weak conditions so that's probably a good indication it's going to come on strong.

Will/Kev etc...ok. I'm still thinking 1-3 Bos Will Kev (roughly)..Ray too. 2-4 SE MA southern RI into SE CT. perhaps 3-6 over the Cape and extreme south coast. Will be lollis for OES and the trough which wants to aim towards SE CT/RI and later LI.

GFS shifted totals down some in the max areas but it barely moved the .1 .25 which makes me think it's possible the downturn at 18z was convective feedback. Can really see it's firing now way out SE.

http://www.rap.ucar....e=-1&duration=5

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The new 21z Ruc is actually encouraging, if u take a look at 18z v 21z Ruc and look at its init at 21z and the same for 21z time frame on the 18z Ruc. It just looks like even with this storm happening now, the models seem to want to figit around with the polar vortex and how it influences the storm.

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Didn't anyone like my snowman pics? Should I live this clique?...:devilsmiley:

Lots of detailed head work. Nice.

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can see the race to the south. Precip moving east as well as north. Note where they intersected recently. At some point the precip moving north will stop that motion and will get pulled east. Where that occurs?

http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?product=N0R&rid=okx&loop=yes

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The new 21z Ruc is actually encouraging, if u take a look at 18z v 21z Ruc and look at its init at 21z and the same for 21z time frame on the 18z Ruc. It just looks like even with this storm happening now, the models seem to want to figit around with the polar vortex and how it influences the storm.

Take a look at the 20z too, started to depart from earlier guidance.

18z NAM/GFS aren't going to cut if right for a moderate event/warning event.

18z RGEM shifted SE too.

Nowcast time I know, but....

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