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Inverted Trough/ Redeveloper Disco Jan 7-9 - Part III


Baroclinic Zone

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Lol...that stuff in the GOM is making a B-line for NE MA/E MA....it isn't weakening either. I wonder if they'll get a couple hours of some decent snow.

It could be decent where it's cold enough, popcorn won't do a ton to knock temps right down here making accumulations difficult in SEMA unless temps drop on their own.

Still mid and upper 30s over most of the Cape.

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Dude! Ryan just gave me a shout out on TV

Ryan really pumping Wed, wow most excited I have ever seen him, says maybe three storms in five days

I went sledding in Norwich today, sick they had ten and getting pummeled right now

Awesome. What caused him to mention your name?

Norwich - FTW. A win they usually don't get. Good for them.

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right now they playing cards

then they will look at internet porn for an hour

then we will send them home early lol

i'm actually optomistic about radar for most of the region blossoming over the next 40 minutes.

It'll snow in ski country Wednesday because I'm hitting the slopes again....more relatives coming in to stay at the house to help another family member. Perfect excuse ot get north :)

Where everyone is cold it'll be fun but that type of return doesnt do jack for lowering temps. It'll take an hour of off and on popcorn echoes to get it done. Otherwise it'll just be wet snow that melts out in between patches.

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Checking out with .3" in attleboro. Good luck to the rest of you.

Have a good night. I'm figuring we'll all end up with another dusting to 2". I should get a coating or at least a wet road at any moment.

Wow. Real nice band.

Should kind of hang around too. Someone should end up with a good 5-10" in that band.

dude don't go to bed now....it's gonna rip for an hour or two. it's blossoming now.

It may snow but I'm not sure about the ripping part. Weird not even the MM5 really has that band all that well. MM5 drops it straight south soon, NAM too.

I've probably never seen a case where this map would yield horribly anemic snows in SE MA.

slp.03.0000.gif

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Actually the HRRR Scooter posted shows it, it gets sucked into the vortex.

Yes. Most show it getting wiped out soon but it's still modeled to give a few tenths. The leading edge that reached the cape just went poof.

I hope we get something, would be an amazing bust if most of the cape got so little precip.

Was just texting a local town official buddy, they released their plow operators at 11. They'd figured it was a bust, just kept a few town trucks ready to sand if it becomes needed.

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We're in the biggest screwzone anyone can possibly be in. Not one flake. Radar just tore a gaping *sshole right over KACK. WTF!!

You'll be told the models/Euro did well blah blah blah, but absent a few tenths tonight it's probably the worst short term modeling job I can remember. I remember talk here today of how it might get crazy down your way tonight...how's it been?

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Congrats, how much did you get yesterday? This party is rocking, NNE guys enroute will be here shortly, new duties, Pete now cooking shrimp, I am mixing Cocktails, Jerry is taking out the trash but expected to be DJ Wed

Was it you that had talked about a day of skiing out in western MA last year? I'd like to get in on that...who was it here that likes Berkshire East?

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You'll be told the models/Euro did well blah blah blah, but absent a few tenths tonight it's probably the worst short term modeling job I can remember. I remember talk here today of how it might get crazy down your way tonight...how's it been?

We literally haven't seen one friggin' flake. It's just cold enough, but the radar just opened a dry hole from hell right overhead. It's not even that windy. I'm scratching my head right now.

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Congrats, how much did you get yesterday? This party is rocking, NNE guys enroute will be here shortly, new duties, Pete now cooking shrimp, I am mixing Cocktails, Jerry is taking out the trash but expected to be DJ Wed

About 5". Looked outside and we have to be near 3" new, but that's a guess from looking at the patio.

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Was it you that had talked about a day of skiing out in western MA last year? I'd like to get in on that...who was it here that likes Berkshire East?

Yep heading there Monday, Mondays if you bring a full coke can, twenty bucks non holiday, and it's empty until the kiddies get out of school. Excellent place.

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We literally haven't seen one friggin' flake. It's just cold enough, but the radar just opened a dry hole from hell right overhead. It's not even that windy. I'm scratching my head right now.

Easy to see what happened and how the models 1/2 failed. The guys here will say they didnt and they're half right. The trough which was in some ways not all that related to what happened for us down here was hit well. Where the models failed terribly was at 500 and subsequently down through. The NAM and others nudged the vorticity further north in the 12z progs. That was a bad error. That later propogated into two identical vorticites side by side which you will clearly see on the loop. Earlier models had formed a more dominant speedmax/western one. It kidn of tossed the other one north and itself was north. As it was more organized everything under it fired better and sooner. Failed! Most models did it too. Not sure how that's able to happen to be honest.

Rotate through this loop. You'll see as thijngs ramp up here we have a west to east structure out under the purple echoes...two 500mb 'centers'....note they dont dominate one or the other and they stay flat moving east before one takes chage and rides up. Too late, that little dance screwed us.

http://www.rap.ucar.edu/weather/satellite/displaySat.php?region=ALB&itype=wv&size=large&endDate=20110109&endTime=-1&duration=10

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