CoastalWx Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 HRRR from this morning was actually pretty accurate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 The good news is most of the TV mets had 2-4", 3-5" type amounts for the cape and didnt latch on to the WSW amounts from the NWS who had 7" as a common # down there. Most of the public will think 2-4" was forecasted and will be completly unaware of the WSW issued. I didnt catch barry today. He's probably my favorite aside of Harv for inside of 24 hours. He's just got so much experience with events in New England. The benefit of being here for 30 years. He called it pretty quickly late this afternoon. I don't blame the forecasters at all, when you have no single model that can get a 12-18 hour forecast right, SREF's, Euro, NAM etc....what are they to do? NOAA has guidelines and you aren't going to nor should you get a forecaster that ignores almost total consensus. They did their jobs. feel bad for them. -- We are under the 20 dbz here. It's a mix of light rain and snow, 36 degrees. It's so light the deck isn't even wet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 Adam V is money. Don't know why we did not pay him to stay Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 HRRR from this morning was actually pretty accurate. What's that? The ARW kind of nailed it IMO. BTW I think we get precip here overnight but I dont think we overcome the BL in time. It's just gotten too warm. Like I said dusting to 2 maybe if all works out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 Starting to pinwheel in nicely from the east now. Just had some grauple for the 2nd time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 I didnt catch barry today. He's probably my favorite aside of Harv for inside of 24 hours. He's just got so much experience with events in New England. The benefit of being here for 30 years. He called it pretty quickly late this afternoon. I don't blame the forecasters at all, when you have no single model that can get a 12-18 hour forecast right, SREF's, Euro, NAM etc....what are they to do? NOAA has guidelines and you aren't going to nor should you get a forecaster that ignores almost total consensus. They did their jobs. feel bad for them. -- We are under the 20 dbz here. It's a mix of light rain and snow, 36 degrees. It's so light the deck isn't even wet. I deff. agree with this. Forecasters get so much sh*t for not forecasting well enough when its obviously not their fault. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cpickett79 Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 Adam V is money. so is folk lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 J-E-T-S JETS JETS JETS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 so is folk lol LOL, Colts are decimated. Not a surprise they lost. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DavisStraight Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 LOL, Colts are decimated. Not a surprise they lost. Why did Caldwell call that time out and pass when they could have eaten more clock before Adams FG, bad game management. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nutmegfriar Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 Foxwoods must be getting drilled right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cpickett79 Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 i wonder if the stuff off ma bay can enhance the seeder feeder system and keep that band kicking longer....atleast over SE CT SW RI Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 3 inches new, thought I was getting a dry slot, precip blossomed just in time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 But you could kind of see what was going on from last night's runs. It showed a mini screw zone for your area through BOS. In the end, the euro qpf from last night probably won't be all that far off, when you consider those nasty squalls that were down there. Even the SREFs last night kept the 0.5" line down by MVY. GFS at least as of now, was probably too aggressive. I didn't forecast for your area. I had to worry about BOS, NYC and the impending snow and ice storm down south, so I could micro analyze for your area, like you did. There were runs of each model that were "right" but I think most forecasters most of the time would take consensus at 12z esp when supported by the Euro. The ARW nailed it right down to that mega band that moved towards Gloucester and died. That's interesting to me. We talked about the twin zones with a gap in the middle, what the models totally blew was the edge of the comma head which got nowhere close. Like you said it looked like a potential screw zone but the radar is just ugly SE. The error was simple really, they just didn't grasp the focus would jump east. It's a magnificent storm for sure, modeled at the surface fairly well but again a bit of a struggle from 500-850. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 Foxwoods must be getting drilled right now. Norwich getting pummeled again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 There were runs of each model that were "right" but I think most forecasters most of the time would take consensus at 12z esp when supported by the Euro. The ARW nailed it right down to that mega band that moved towards Gloucester and died. That's interesting to me. We talked about the twin zones with a gap in the middle, what the models totally blew was the edge of the comma head which got nowhere close. Like you said it looked like a potential screw zone but the radar is just ugly SE. The error was simple really, they just didn't grasp the focus would jump east. It's a magnificent storm for sure, modeled at the surface fairly well but again a bit of a struggle from 500-850. Here is the HRRR. http://rapidrefresh.noaa.gov/hrrrconus/Welcome.cgi?dsKey=hrrr&domain=t3&run_time=08+Jan+2011+-+12Z Loop composite reflectivity. It actually got the band and everything right. Of course this is a nowcast model and I'm trying to see how it works, but it has its moments. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 Here is the HRRR. http://rapidrefresh....+Jan+2011+-+12Z Loop composite reflectivity. It actually got the band and everything right. Of course this is a nowcast model and I'm trying to see how it works, but it has its moments. I've been following it for a year or so now. It has its moments, but I prefer it over the RUC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nutmegfriar Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 Norwich getting pummeled again. The Rose of New England Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HarveyLeonardFan Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 Most of Rhode Island SW of PVD looks good for 5-6 inches plus. Newport has a little over 2 inches but we've been 15 miles east of the heavy bands all night. It's absolutely amazing how this little seaside city always finds a way to get the least amount of snow in this area!!!! For once, at least it's not raining here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cpickett79 Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 the guy down in W. greenwich (sp?) , RI is leading the pack....gotta be about 4 now. i would say hands down...my money is on him to win the accum sweepstakes tonite ginxy comes in second. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 Wind is really coming up now. Radar would suggest steadier precip rotates west onto the cape in the next few hrs...should still manage accumulating snow I would think....especially as most guidance didn't get precip going until about this hr +\- Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 I deff. agree with this. Forecasters get so much sh*t for not forecasting well enough when its obviously not their fault. The only criticism I'd have and it's minor is it looked like a turd by mid-afternoon aside of the death band. I'm talking about down here. The general 1-3" and banding in CT/RI worked out fine. It just looked like - and the 18z models all indicated this was going bad down here so maybe when Barry made his jump others could have too. I know some of you know Burbank....those that do can read between the lines he really wanted to say he didn't think it was going to snow much at all here. When he leans like he did...going back to the early 80s its always a bad sign. But I think NOAA has specific rules they must follow. Why they just refreshed the warning at 1052pm for 4-8 inches...I have no idea but I hope they score a coup. It's so warm on the Cape it'll take an hour just to cool the column enough to make it stick. The death band is going to hold strong for several more hours as it drops south. Not sure why warnings aren't out there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bruschi Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 HA channel 5 is still calling for 3-5 down here lol. Def 0-2 at most. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 Wind is really coming up now. Radar would suggest steadier precip rotates west onto the cape in the next few hrs...should still manage accumulating snow I would think....especially as most guidance didn't get precip going until about this hr +\- Euro would verify well if that happens...it actually showed most of the Cape QPF after 06z while the stuff in the interior was between 00z and 06z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 J-E-T-S JETS JETS JETS Congrats on becoming the sacrificial lamb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 The only criticism I'd have and it's minor is it looked like a turd by mid-afternoon aside of the death band. I'm talking about down here. The general 1-3" and banding in CT/RI worked out fine. It just looked like - and the 18z models all indicated this was going bad down here so maybe when Barry made his jump others could have too. I know some of you know Burbank....those that do can read between the lines he really wanted to say he didn't think it was going to snow much at all here. When he leans like he did...going back to the early 80s its always a bad sign. But I think NOAA has specific rules they must follow. Why they just refreshed the warning at 1052pm for 4-8 inches...I have no idea but I hope they score a coup. It's so warm on the Cape it'll take an hour just to cool the column enough to make it stick. The death band is going to hold strong for several more hours as it drops south. Not sure why warnings aren't out there. Hey like I said...wait until all is said and done. It might not be a bust. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ROOSTA Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 I'm liking the looks of those echo's off the S coast of ME. swinging to the SW. Do they hold together or poof out? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 Here is the HRRR. http://rapidrefresh....+Jan+2011+-+12Z Loop composite reflectivity. It actually got the band and everything right. Of course this is a nowcast model and I'm trying to see how it works, but it has its moments. Thanks! THe RUC actually wasn't bad. It's had most of the day the death band and gradually placed it right. It's been absolutely consistent in getting the cCB nowhere near us. Jets v Patriots. BTW, I'm not sure there's any defending keeping the warning out for the Cape, but that's just me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cpickett79 Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 J.R richards channel 7 .....guess he didn't want to update the accums map so that RI and E ct get there dues....he has 1-3 over that entire area...yet 3-5 back by CC bridge still and s. coast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 HA channel 5 is still calling for 3-5 down here lol. Def 0-2 at most. Tedy...give it a chc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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