Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 Models did ok with this. They showed the Cape getting snow and the band near ORH and ern CT. Sucks you don't get snow. I'm pretty sure everyone in SE MA will disagree with you re how they did but it doesn't really matter. I was on the low side of projections, like you and Will I had a bad feeling and the NOGAPs trend rule of 3 runs kind of won again. 3" vs 4-8 or several inches not bad. 2" is okay. 0" versus 4-8" and solid .4 to .6" QPF totals from every single model.. Looking through the levels on the NAM 12z vs 0z...it's a pretty big error to not understand there would be essentially two centers of low pressure where it counted vs one consolidated. That's a 12 hour forecast that was horrific. It's not really a meso scale thing when it cannot place an 8h low center correctly and is off by several contours at 12 hours. In the end my little illustration last night played out. It shot out east and the models tried to hold onto the western solution but all failed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cpickett79 Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 [ perhaps dryslot and other members of the circle of trust have hijacked a few airplanes and are doing some cloud seeding Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 1.7" new outside. Just measured. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 2" in Colchester CT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 10:30- 1.3" new on top of the 1" from last night. Still some -sn, but its lightened up some. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CCPSUSuperstorm2010 Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 I will be mad, but not pissed that this doesn't occur, I mean it wasn't supposed to be a great deal for us anyways. Congrats to the interior, we may have one last hurrah coming from the east as the low moves away, but IR looks awesome, too bad the mid level dry air hampered this one. Good night everyone. Stay safe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MBRI Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 3" + here in West Greenwich RI Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 3/4per hour stuff Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cpickett79 Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 messenger you sound like you are about to "lose it". the extreme blocking when coupled with the nina's typical N. stream fast flow w/ multiple vortex's has given models headache's.......it's a anomalous pattern and that is why they have sucked on the whole. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 I'm pretty sure everyone in SE MA will disagree with you re how they did but it doesn't really matter. I was on the low side of projections, like you and Will I had a bad feeling and the NOGAPs trend rule of 3 runs kind of won again. 3" vs 4-8 or several inches not bad. 2" is okay. 0" versus 4-8" and solid .4 to .6" QPF totals from every single model.. Looking through the levels on the NAM 12z vs 0z...it's a pretty big error to not understand there would be essentially two centers of low pressure where it counted vs one consolidated. That's a 12 hour forecast that was horrific. It's not really a meso scale thing when it cannot place an 8h low center correctly and is off by several contours at 12 hours. I don't care what the qpf showed, but it did show the areas of lift due to specific processes. I must have mentioned it like 4 times today. We still may see se mass catch up a bit later tonight, especially if the stuff in the GOM comes through, but not high confidence on that. I think the 00z euro even had only 0.15" to 0.25" for BOS and pym county, so that will come close. 12z Euro may be too high, but it still highlighted the hotspots. It came pretty close to my expectations. I have 2.1" so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Collinsville Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 have 0.3" here with a solid light snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phishn Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 I'm pretty sure everyone in SE MA will disagree with you re how they did but it doesn't really matter. I was on the low side of projections, like you and Will I had a bad feeling and the NOGAPs trend rule of 3 runs kind of won again. 3" vs 4-8 or several inches not bad. 2" is okay. 0" versus 4-8" and solid .4 to .6" QPF totals from every single model.. Looking through the levels on the NAM 12z vs 0z...it's a pretty big error to not understand there would be essentially two centers of low pressure where it counted vs one consolidated. That's a 12 hour forecast that was horrific. It's not really a meso scale thing when it cannot place an 8h low center correctly and is off by several contours at 12 hours. In the end my little illustration last night played out. It shot out east and the models tried to hold onto the western solution but all failed. Major fail here too, yesterday and today. My 1-3" forecast last night resulted in .25" of snow, and 3-5" forecast today and I don't have even an inch from this storm today, its been "snowing" for 2.5 hours here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 Ginx... a new snowfall total please? Making a graphic for the 11 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeVries Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 Radar echoes building in Mass Bay. Look promising? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cpickett79 Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 i wonder if kev is just to the west of that band in tolland cty. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 Radar echoes building in Mass Bay. Look promising? Hope so, but it's got a long way to go. Hopefully it doesn't poop the bed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DavisStraight Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 What did I miss now, have been 100 % weather and UCONN BBall, football today http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/us_congresswoman_shot Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MBRI Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 This layed down a 1" in 20 minutes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 messenger you sound like you are about to "lose it". the extreme blocking when coupled with the nina's typical fast flow and multiple vortex's has given models headache's.......it's a anomalous pattern and that is why they have sucked on the whole. My expectations on the whole were much lower than most for this event starting later yesterday. Today it looked like a turd burger. It's an amazing system, look at the water vapor, it's just got two centers and we're closer to the wrong one. I don't care what the qpf showed, but it did show the areas of lift due to specific processes. I must have mentioned it like 4 times today. We still may see se mass catch up a bit later tonight, especially if the stuff in the GOM comes through, but not high confidence on that. I think the 00z euro even had only 0.25" to 0.25" for BOS and pym county, so that will come close. 12z Euro may be too high, but it still highlighted the hotspots. It came pretty close to my expectations. I have 2.1" so far. All models showed QPF here because they showed some specific process to drive it. They were wrong because the centers were either too strongly modeled, or in the wrong spot. I don't think in the end anyone cares why this turned into nothing down here,, it's a bust as the predicted outcome isn't likely to come close to happening. I hope when the pattern relaxes some the models settle because this one will sting forecasters for awhile down here. This was bad Scott and it was simply that the models couldn't grasp the eastern center was going to be the dominate one. Not sure why that happened, but it did. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 What the heck is causing those echoes to develop over the GOM?? Weak trough it seems, I was forcasted to get nothing and i have 0.50" so far.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sankaty Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 Light snow, occasionally moderate. About .75" new. Not sure we'll verify Upton's 3-5 here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 My expectations on the whole were much lower than most for this event starting later yesterday. Today it looked like a turd burger. It's an amazing system, look at the water vapor, it's just got two centers and we're closer to the wrong one. All models showed QPF here because they showed some specific process to drive it. They were wrong because the centers were either too strongly modeled, or in the wrong spot. I don't think in the end anyone cares why this turned into nothing down here,, it's a bust as the predicted outcome isn't likely to come close to happening. I hope when the pattern relaxes some the models settle because this one will sting forecasters for awhile down here. The good news is most of the TV mets had 2-4", 3-5" type amounts for the cape and didnt latch on to the WSW amounts from the NWS who had 7" as a common # down there. Most of the public will think 2-4" was forecasted and will be completly unaware of the WSW issued. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NECT Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 2" here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rivers Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 just a dusting here not sure we will even get an inch,radar showing the western edge eroding. this is a conn river east snow tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 Weak trough it seems, I was forcasted to get nothing and i have 0.50" so far.. And it keeps backbuilding to your east as well. You'll be snowing for some time to come it appears. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 Major fail here too, yesterday and today. My 1-3" forecast last night resulted in .25" of snow, and 3-5" forecast today and I don't have even an inch from this storm today, its been "snowing" for 2.5 hours here. It's not that things were a little off, they weren't even close aside of the trough. Looking at the meso, that band is about to ramp up even more. Going to be incredible snow rates for the next few hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HarveyLeonardFan Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 The good news is most of the TV mets had 2-4", 3-5" type amounts for the cape and didnt latch on to the WSW amounts from the NWS who had 7" as a common # down there. Most of the public will think 2-4" was forecasted and will be completly unaware of the WSW issued. Actually I bet a lot of people are surprised that it's snowing at all tonight. For the entire week all the public was hearing about was snow on Friday and Friday night. Nothing about Saturday night. Messenger was one of the first ones in the business to sniff out tonight's event long before the local tv forecasters or the NWS grid forecasts. In fact none of the local forecasters I saw even mentioned tonight's event until yesterday morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 My expectations on the whole were much lower than most for this event starting later yesterday. Today it looked like a turd burger. It's an amazing system, look at the water vapor, it's just got two centers and we're closer to the wrong one. All models showed QPF here because they showed some specific process to drive it. They were wrong because the centers were either too strongly modeled, or in the wrong spot. I don't think in the end anyone cares why this turned into nothing down here,, it's a bust as the predicted outcome isn't likely to come close to happening. I hope when the pattern relaxes some the models settle because this one will sting forecasters for awhile down here. This was bad Scott and it was simply that the models couldn't grasp the eastern center was going to be the dominate one. Not sure why that happened, but it did. But you could kind of see what was going on from last night's runs. It showed a mini screw zone for your area through BOS. In the end, the euro qpf from last night probably won't be all that far off, when you consider those nasty squalls that were down there. Even the SREFs last night kept the 0.5" line down by MVY. GFS at least as of now, was probably too aggressive. I didn't forecast for your area. I had to worry about BOS, NYC and the impending snow and ice storm down south, so I could micro analyze for your area, like you did. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nutmegfriar Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 Nice bands heading to the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 Adam V is money. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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