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Inverted Trough/ Redeveloper Disco Jan 7-9 - Part III


Baroclinic Zone

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No, you said it had to be heavy heavy snow in PYM county. It wasn't along the coast, it's warm and it's raining, or rain mixed with snow all the way up along the shoreline. 35-40 dbz and only 1/2 mile visibility but oh well. Irrelvant but I clearly said ON THE COAST. :)

I'd enjoy the snow if it'd actually fall.

I'm glad you fixed your error.

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I think Cold Miser and that dude NECT may jackpot

I thought this would suck here all day, this manages to outsuck even my worst fears because it's even too warm for OES. Well actually at 37 it's too warm for anything but a brisk walk.

The models did a very good job placing the trough all things considered, they butchered the placement of the main surface low. It's funny though we are all taking turns. You've had two days of fun, we had the systems around Christmas, Weatherfella/Bob got the big blizzard.....sharing the wealth but I wonder if we ever get a region wide?

nam_700_078l.gif

Silly NAM...

nam_850_078l.gif

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I thought this would suck here all day, this manages to outsuck even my worst fears because it's even too warm for OES. Well actually at 37 it's too warm for anything but a brisk walk.

The models did a very good job placing the trough all things considered, they butchered the placement of the main surface low. It's funny though we are all taking turns. You've had two days of fun, we had the systems around Christmas, Weatherfella/Bob got the big blizzard.....sharing the wealth but I wonder if we ever get a region wide?

nam_700_078l.gif

Silly NAM...

nam_850_078l.gif

Hopefully Wednesday we all hold hands and sing along with Yoko."Give snow a chance"

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I'm glad you fixed your error.

I'm trying to get a photo for you from right under that bright band that went over by Exit 6 but all communication has been lost. We were both "wrong" but I did clearly spell out where I was talking about. It wasn't heavy snow on the coast where they had 35-40dbz echoes, it was a mix or rain and snow.

Boston not jumping ship yet....they will have to I think in time.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...

-- Changed Discussion --ANOTHER TRICKY FORECAST FOR SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND OVERNIGHT. LOW

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWING LOW PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE

INVERTED TROUGH INTENSIFYING JUST SOUTHEAST OF THE BENCHMARK.

LIGHTNING WAS CONTINUING TO SHOW UP OVER THE OCEAN INDICATING

INTENSIFICATION.

CURRENT INVERTED TROUGH AND ITS ASSOCIATED SCATTERED BANDS OF

MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW WERE WORKING ACROSS SOUTHEAST MA/CENTRAL MA

AND INTO NORTHEAST CT. THE NAM/S LATEST TOTAL TOTALS MATCHUP

EXCELLENTLY WITH WHERE THESE BANDS OF SNOW WERE OCCURRING. NOT MUCH

WAS GOING ON ACROSS THE CAPE AND EVEN INTO EASTERN PLYMOUTH COUNTY

AS SOME DRY 700 MB LEVEL WAS INVADING THE REGION AND MUCH OF THE

PRECIPITATION WAS IN THE FORM OF LIGHT RAIN.

THE DILEMMA WITH THE OVERNIGHT FORECAST IS BOTH THE SURFACE LOW AND

ITS ASSOCIATED MID LEVEL CENTER/S TRACK MORE EASTWARD AS AS OPPOSED

TO NORTH. THE LATEST NAM MODEL SHOWS THIS TO SOME DEGREE...WITH

VERY STRONG OMEGA DEVELOPING TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE ISLANDS AFTER

6Z. THERE STILL SHOULD BE SOME DECENT OMEGA ACROSS THE CAPE AND

NANTUCKET FOR SEVERAL HOURS AND ANY RAIN SHOULD QUICKLY CHANGE TO

WET SNOW OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER...WARM BOUNDARY LAYER AND CURRENT MID

LEVEL DRY AIR WILL HURT THEM. WILL WAIT THINGS OUT ANOTHER HOUR OR

SO BEFORE MAKING ANY CHANGES TO CURRENT HEADLINES IN THIS

REGION...BUT SNOW TOTALS MAY END UP BEING ON THE LOWER END OF OUR

CURRENT FORECAST. STILL EXPECT SLIPPERY TRAVEL TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT.

THE BANDS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW ACROSS CENTRAL MA/NORTHEAST CT

AND THE SOUTH COAST SHOULD GRADUALLY SINK SOUTH. SEVERAL MORE HOURS

OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW MAY OCCUR...BUT BANDING IN NATURE MAY ALSO

KEEP AVERAGE SNOW TOTALS BELOW WINTER STORM WARNING CRITERIA ALONG

THE SOUTH COAST.

AGAIN...WILL AWAIT A BIT MORE DATA BEFORE MAKING ANY CHANGES BUT

SNOW TOTALS WILL PROBABLY END UP ON THE LOWER END OF THE CURRENT

FORECAST.-- End Changed Discussion --

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Who knows could have some pingers in there too. NAM is way NW but still looks cold enough back here and for you. Going to be an interesting storm but I'd like it to stop trending NW!

looks like I might have to worry about that crappy rain snow line on wed.

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Nice keep rotating that stuff west. Still moderate/borderline heavy here

That band is going to go ape shortly. I'm sure the heavy winds that just kicked up here are going to help with the convergence/lift....I bet it explodes in the next hour.

The storm is "over" here. Maybe some lighter precip or a band or two after midnight. Dusting to 2" tops for me. Total disaster.

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If GAY doesn't get at least 12-16 he may shoot up the post office.

LOL.

Wow. zero Z NAM is hot

Keep in mind this is the same model that couldnt forecast hour 3 right for the last day. :)

--

Wow, it's just over here. Some stuff will try to rotate in from the east, and the trough will eventually try to swing down but geez....I think most would say this is one of the worst busts here in ages. Plows mobilized etc...for a light rain shower.

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