CT Rain Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 The models today did a good job of hitting this area from E CT/RI up through C MA that is currently blossoming on radar....most of them had it. Obviously in these inverted trough type setups, the amounts can have surprises, but the axis of potential was definitely outlined reasonably. Yeah it's just not easy to forecast. Who the hell would have though 15"+ in parts of CT!? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 man, that snow does not look to make it north of Waltham.. Watertown.. just 5 more miles please... Dry still in Boston. This event is not going to make it to your area and I'm not sure it makes it here. NBD. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 9, 2011 Author Share Posted January 9, 2011 What's with those 35-40 dbz echos between PYM and TAN? If thats snow its pretty heavy That will be 1/2m or less vis under that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rivers Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 My point and click was up to an inch, now 1-2. That would be awesome. Looks like it's at HVN! im 3 miles east in branford its snowing very light right now and my point and click jusst went up to 2-4 ,ill take anything . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthCoastMA Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 Dry still in Boston. This event is not going to make it to your area and I'm not sure it makes it here. NBD. If there was no potential TUE/WED system in the pipeline, more people would be jumping off Tobin bridge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 Models suck with redevelopers in these types of patterns. Notice how the Miller A next week has been modeled pretty well in advance 5-7 days out? Probably not a coincidence. They haven't really been great with anything this winter. And all I'd say about next Wednesday is this....we cannot say they're doing well with it until thursday I won't even care to look for a few days for more than a few minutes but just peaking at the GFS we're seeing hints of a trough and hints that we'll have some things to watch in terms of the same thing as tonight with the focus potentially jumping east etc. It's still 35 here. I'm thinking a dusting to 3" on the cape. Leaving a wide range because it's goign to take time to overcome the marine layer if we do at all. With such spotty precip it may be tough until we've already expended whatever QPF will fall. 1-3/2-4" with that snow band, maybe spot 4-6 is possible if it holds together if not maybe more if it stalls. Eastern MA it's all OES type snows, very little synoptic. If it bands out well. One of the other problems is that with this more obtuse low it's a little warmer at 8h...so it's borderline for traditional OES. This is why we are not seeing any new OES bands form, it's too warm aloft right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sankaty Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 Snowing nicely in Middletown, CT. Might be approaching moderate, but tough to tell at night. Decent flake size, but nothing like last night. Last night by the flood lights, the flakes were casting shadows as they neared the ground. Very pleased at how far west the accumulating snow has gotten. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 That will be 1/2m or less vis under that. It's not. I have family under it, bright banding. It's decent snow but it's not heavy or even moderate. (on the coast) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
millpondwx Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 snowing is building NE, up to almost Nashua, Littleton, Concord, Waltahm.. hope it makes it to Burlington.. Not looking likely. Not even a flake here in Littleton. Amazing that out of this entire event, we literally received just a few snow grains this morning. The middlesex valley is in a pretty serious snow drought. Waiting patiently for things to turn around here... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 If there was no potential TUE/WED system in the pipeline, more people would be jumping off Tobin bridge. Which would be ridiculous considering we had our biggest dump since the jan 2005 blizzard 2 weeks ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cpickett79 Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 wow plymouth county WTF heavy heavy "precip" KTAN TO PVD Should get smacked very soon those RI traffic cams are interesting Anyone wanna guess what the lollis are i'll say 10 inches why not? look at Central RI Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phishn Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 If there was no potential TUE/WED system in the pipeline, more people would be jumping off Tobin bridge. It's always the next one... Snowhole still going strong here in Attleboro. Very light snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 9, 2011 Author Share Posted January 9, 2011 It's not. I have family under it, bright banding. It's decent snow but it's not heavy or even moderate. (on the coast) LOL. I just had a similar band move through here and TAN reported 1/2m so it is. SPECI KTAN 090136Z AUTO 31005KT 1/2SM SN FZFG BKN004 OVC007 M01/M02 A2932 RMK AO2 UPE0057SNB0057 P0005 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 0.6" new on top of the 1 inch we got last night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kbosch Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 The models today did a good job of hitting this area from E CT/RI up through C MA that is currently blossoming on radar....most of them had it. Obviously in these inverted trough type setups, the amounts can have surprises, but the axis of potential was definitely outlined reasonably. As it was yesterday, totally agree, 2/2. They did a great job with a very tough situation. I'm not understanding the huge failures here. They can't predict the band placement and account for features that enhance totals. NYC to central CT kept being hit with the first trough for a couple days which lead me to say even on Tuesday/Wednesday how confident I was that MBY would get advisory snow. They were definitely right with the general placement. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bruschi Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 Only been a few passing showers here! Currently 37F here:( Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 9, 2011 Author Share Posted January 9, 2011 LOL. I just had a similar band move through here and TAN reported 1/2m so it is. SPECI KTAN 090136Z AUTO 31005KT 1/2SM SN FZFG BKN004 OVC007 M01/M02 A2932 RMK AO2 UPE0057SNB0057 P0005 Here is the radar sig at the time TAN reported 1/2m. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 The problem is the last 2 storms we were getting snow from complex and subtle mesoscale features. The models, IMO, did a nice job showing where that potential would be but when it comes to nailing down subtle mesoscale features the models just aren't good. It's almost like trying to pin down where convection will get going 24 hours out. They were fine with the troughs for the most part, horrible with this system tonight. It's not often 12 hr Euro forecasts bust this badly. I am not sure I ever remember a situation in which the NCEP models changed every six hours for 3 days and were still wrong in the end. The SREF's etc. They struggled for a few days trying to figure out if the emphasis would be east or west...with globals seeming to split the difference. It's clearly two defined systems and we got the weaker one. The only model that had indicated all day the bulk of the storm precip would stay offshore was the RUC....probably by default. The problem now is we won't even see the OES - true OES type stuff. It's not cold enough and we don't have a stronger 8h low. Notice MA Bay is empty of echoes? Yuck. Should cool and with increasing winds we may be okay in a few hours...but it's iffy. The models (down here) didn't blow the micro feature, they couldn't properly place/develop a 980ish low and it's accompanying comma head. I hope this improves or it'll be a tough winter for forecasters. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeVries Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 I think I got about 0.5 inch today. Some decent bursts. Can't complain after being in the jackpot. Wed looks tasty. Oh yeah, there has been measurable snow in Boston...they just haven't measured it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 LZD in NE CT down to 1/2SM mod snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 Already 1" in Vernon, CT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DavisStraight Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 As it was yesterday, totally agree, 2/2. They did a great job with a very tough situation. I'm not understanding the huge failures here. They can't predict the band placement and account features for that enhance totals. NYC to central CT kept being hit with the first trough for a couple days which lead me to say even on Tuesday/Wednesday how confident I was that MBY would get advisory snow. They were definitely right with the general placement. And it was pretty accurate showing that trough drying up as it moved ne over my area, I only had 1 inch last night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 As it was yesterday, totally agree, 2/2. They did a great job with a very tough situation. I'm not understanding the huge failures here. They can't predict the band placement and account for features that enhance totals. NYC to central CT kept being hit with the first trough for a couple days which lead me to say even on Tuesday/Wednesday how confident I was that MBY would get advisory snow. They were definitely right with the general placement. They busted terribly on the Cape tonight. It wasn't the placement of the trough or anything else. They were wrong in where they placed a major low pressure and it's accompanying mid-level centers. We were forecast to get 4-8", it's 35-37 and what is falling is rain. It isn't that they placed the axis or the band wrong, it's 250 miles further out to sea! Only been a few passing showers here! Currently 37F here:( 35 rain showers here. Warnings should be down any minute, hopefully converted to nothing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 9, 2011 Author Share Posted January 9, 2011 Vis coming back down now after going back to 2mi. Back down to about 1mi. Band is on my doorstep. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
radarman Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 I like how these stronger echoes are developing west towards me. Radar looking surprisingly good considering the low expectations out here. Moderate snow, .5" new. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 9, 2011 Author Share Posted January 9, 2011 Vis coming back down now after going back to 2mi. Back down to about 1mi. Band is on my doorstep. If this band holds together as it moves through it may drop a couple inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 MVY now over to snow...column cooling as the steadier precip rotates up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 Kevin should start ripping soon with 1/4-1/2SM snow. He'll claim it's M1/4SM but we know it will be not that bad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 MVY now over to snow...column cooling as the steadier precip rotates up. Yeah mod snow too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 Nice moderate, this band can sit here, 3/4 new Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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