Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    17,586
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    LopezElliana
    Newest Member
    LopezElliana
    Joined

Inverted Trough/ Redeveloper Disco Jan 7-9 - Part III


Baroclinic Zone

Recommended Posts

  • Replies 919
  • Created
  • Last Reply

This entire show may be south of the Pike. We had a nice burst of OES around 6:15 or so...but that has moved south and I question whether we get much more. At this point gun to my head I'd say under an inch in Boston. Good luck south of here guys.

This is a disaster...no measurable snow in Boston the entire weekend.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

This entire show may be south of the Pike. We had a nice burst of OES around 6:15 or so...but that has moved south and I question whether we get much more. At this point gun to my head I'd say under an inch in Boston. Good luck south of here guys.

It's over for anything down here close to warning criteria save miracle micro/meso banding from OEs type stuff.

What a choke job on ALL models it would appear. WTF is going on this year.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

an ever so slight shift SE of the .5 and .25. Not much, just slight. Poor performance from the SREF's this time.

New NAM doesn't get the CCB any closer. I can't believe my low end cautious totals will bust high.

90% of our totals will be from oes..

although the arm of the cape always seems to disrupt that flow and **ck it up for us.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

NAM definitely not that impressive.

I just cannot believe every model busted (presuming current radar/water vapor and the new NAM) are correct. Didn't the Euro have .5" over a decent section? RGEM, GGEM, etc...UKMET I think will turn out to have won this one. How can it be even 6 hour forecasts from NCEP models stink? It's staggering.

90% of our totals will be from oes..

Yep. This has looked like a turd all day and it's a turd aside of OES and impressive trough snows. Total disaster yet again.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I just cannot believe every model busted (presuming current radar/water vapor and the new NAM) are correct. Didn't the Euro have .5" over a decent section? RGEM, GGEM, etc...UKMET I think will turn out to have won this one. How can it be even 6 hour forecasts from NCEP models stink? It's staggering.

Models suck with redevelopers in these types of patterns. Notice how the Miller A next week has been modeled pretty well in advance 5-7 days out? Probably not a coincidence.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Geez, how's this for a Walmart chopper?

Let's hope banding saves us/trough but disaster. Been like a slow motion train wreck all day long.

Whatever excuses people want to make for the models and I understand it may be they weren't able to handle this pattern we're not talking 24-72 hours, they cannot even get 6 hour forecasts correct right now.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Geez, how's this for a Walmart chopper?

Let's hope banding saves us/trough but disaster. Been like a slow motion train wreck all day long.

Whatever excuses people want to make for the models and I understand it may be they weren't able to handle this pattern we're not talking 24-72 hours, they cannot even get 6 hour forecasts correct right now.

FWIW I'm in the .05 area and I probably already have that amount...

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I just cannot believe every model busted (presuming current radar/water vapor and the new NAM) are correct. Didn't the Euro have .5" over a decent section? RGEM, GGEM, etc...UKMET I think will turn out to have won this one. How can it be even 6 hour forecasts from NCEP models stink? It's staggering.

Yep. This has looked like a turd all day and it's a turd aside of OES and impressive trough snows. Total disaster yet again.

The problem is the last 2 storms we were getting snow from complex and subtle mesoscale features. The models, IMO, did a nice job showing where that potential would be but when it comes to nailing down subtle mesoscale features the models just aren't good. It's almost like trying to pin down where convection will get going 24 hours out.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

The problem is the last 2 storms we were getting snow from complex and subtle mesoscale features. The models, IMO, did a nice job showing where that potential would be but when it comes to nailing down subtle mesoscale features the models just aren't good. It's almost like trying to pin down where convection will get going 24 hours out.

The models today did a good job of hitting this area from E CT/RI up through C MA that is currently blossoming on radar....most of them had it. Obviously in these inverted trough type setups, the amounts can have surprises, but the axis of potential was definitely outlined reasonably.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Archived

This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.

×
×
  • Create New...