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Inverted Trough/ Redeveloper Disco Jan 7-9 - Part III


Baroclinic Zone

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It is raining now on the Outer Cape.

Yeah one of the Bos TV guys noted moderate rain shower in Hyannis.

I don't know, soon as the eastern system start firing the radar started to crap out to the west which is what the later models forecast. We have a progressive system where the majority of any significant precip is already south of ACK and the dynamics are shfiting east fast.

http://www.rap.ucar.edu/weather/satellite/displaySat.php?region=ALB&itype=wv&size=large&endDate=20110108&endTime=-1&duration=5

The bands that develop are going to be pretty wicked by the looks of it though!

http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?product=N0R&rid=box&loop=yes

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.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...

IMPRESSIVE SATELLITE IMAGERY AT 7 PM ACROSS THE NORTHEAST WITH

COOLING CLOUD TOPS OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND THE NEARBY COASTAL

WATERS ALONG WITH NUMEROUS LIGHTNING STRIKES AROUND THE 40N/70W

BENCHMARK. ALL INDICATIONS OF SIGNIFICANT CYCLOGENESIS OCCURRING.

RADAR IMAGERY JUST AS IMPRESSIVE WITH SYNOPTIC SNOWS EXPANDING

NORTH-NORTHWEST FROM OFFSHORE DEVELOPING CYCLONE INTO RI AND

EASTERN CT. MEANWHILE OCEAN EFFECT SNOWS COMING ONSHORE INTO

EASTERN MA. THIS AREA OF SNOW PROBABLY ALSO DRIVEN BY WEAK

INVERTED TROF/CONVERGENCE AXIS ACROSS THIS REGION WITH WINDS N-NW

ACROSS NORTHEAST MA WHILE WINDS NE JUST OFFSHORE.

THIS AREA OF OCEAN EFFECT SNOW MAY BLOSSOM AS SYNOPTIC SNOW

OVERLAPS THE SAME REGION /FEEDER-SEEDER MECHANISM/. THUS BY 9 OR 10

MPH MUCH OF EASTERN CT/RI AND EASTERN MA SHOULD HAVE FALLING SNOW.

NEW MODEL DATA INCLUDING THE 12Z ECMWF/15Z SREF/18Z GFS AND NAM

NOT MODELLING MUCH CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS RUNS...HOWEVER THERE ARE

SUBTLE INDICATIONS THAT MID LEVEL LOW WILL JUMP FROM NYC AREA TO

JUST EAST OF THE BENCHMARK BY 06Z. THIS WOULD FOCUS THE DEEP LAYER

LIFT AND MSTR ALONG EASTERN CT/RI AND THE SOUTH COAST OF MA WITH

NOT MUCH APPRECIABLE QPF TO THE NORTH OF THIS AREA. THUS THE

ADVISORY AREA MAY SEE LESS SNOWFALL THAN EARLIER THOUGHT. HOWEVER

WILL MONITOR SATELLITE AND RADAR TRENDS ALONG WITH NEW 00Z MODEL

DATA BEFORE CHANGING ANY WARNING/ADVISORY CONFIGURATION.

OTHERWISE CONTINUE TO EXPECT HEAVIEST SNOWFALL FROM ABOUT 10 PM TO

2 AM POSSIBLY LINGERING UNTIL ABOUT 4 AM ACROSS CAPE COD AND THE

ISLANDS. WINDS INCREASE OVERNIGHT AS LOW BOMBS EAST OF THE

BENCHMARK WHICH WILL LIKELY YIELD CONSIDERABLY BLOWING AND

DRIFTING SNOW ACROSS CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS.

MAY NEED TO EXPAND ADVISORY NORTHWARD INTO BOSTON GIVEN OCEAN

EFFECT SNOWS THIS EVENING MAY YIELD 1-2 INCHES COMBINED WITH

ANOTHER 1-2 INCHES OVERNIGHT FROM SYNOPTIC LIFT. EXPECT OCEAN

EFFECT ENHANCEMENT TO SHIFT SOUTHWARD TO CAPE COD AND ISLANDS AS

WINDS SHIFT TO N-NW WITH LOW BOMBING SE OF NEW ENGLAND.

ANY LIGHT RAIN ON THE CAPE OR ISLANDS WILL QUICKLY CHANGE TO ALL

SNOW LATER THIS EVENING AS PRECIP INTENSITY INCREASES AND COLUMN COOLS

WITH 850 TEMPS AROUND -6C/-5C ACROSS THIS REGION.

Impressive discussion by Taunton WFO.

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I don't think the mid level centers are jumping all that much, it appears the 850mb circulation is getting its act together now south of Falmouth, MA. This according to the SPC mesoanalysis. Also 850mb temps are around -6 to -8C, quite cold.

Very weak and diffuse at 700...

Most impressive run I've ever seen in the Seahawks game...wow!

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Very weak and diffuse at 700...

Most impressive run I've ever seen in the Seahawks game...wow!

Just to elaborate....when this went south/bad in the models we lost the complete jump east. We have the low level center, maybe up through about 850 out near it. But the 700ish hasn't jumped and what we have is the Typhoon Tip trademarked shredded monster. It's coming together now, I've got my fingers crossed but I hate that it's trying to start with the main precip south of ACK already.

Look at this map from yesterdays 12z when we were getting smashed http://www.twisterdata.com/index.php?prog=forecast&model=NAM&grid=221&model_yyyy=2011&model_mm=01&model_dd=07&model_init_hh=12&fhour=42&parameter=TMPC&level=700&unit=MB&maximize=n&mode=singlemap&sounding=n&output=image&view=large&archive=false

Notice even by Kev the impressive bands just started to move a little west too.

http://radar.weather...id=BOX&loop=yes

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I think it's time to change up the warnings/advisories.

We've got two problems down here. Without the comma head precip/edge of it to even get close here we've got marine layer issues. It's wet not white in a lot of the eastern warning area now. That'll change over time but we're not talking about an 18 hour storm.

2, areas without an advisory/warning are going to get the most precip. (ie some areas with no advisory will get snows that meet/close, areas with an advisory may get warning level snows in CT/parts of RI)...will have to wait and see on that.

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