Baroclinic Zone Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 We were closed out of our thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 To answer Cpickles..... Sometime between 00z and 06z...maybe 03z to 06z near central mass. Again, this is if models are right. It's really nothing to write home about for you...or me for that matter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CCPSUSuperstorm2010 Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 18z RUC does not look good, I only have the 12 hour RUC and it looks horrible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 Hopefully Logan calls in snow, because I know they had some. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Boston-winter08 Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 18z RUC does not look good, I only have the 12 hour RUC and it looks horrible. the RUC, in general, has not looked good at all today for this "event" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 Hopefully Logan calls in snow, because I know they had some. If your talking about logan i have an inch Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cpickett79 Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 anyone have a comment on the evolution of this system i mean ya we have models coming in for a storm that is less than 12 hours away. and we can post those but anyone with some real skill see any trends developing regarding the evolution of this storm compared w/ models/ i.e looking at WV / radar etc Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 8, 2011 Author Share Posted January 8, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 8, 2011 Author Share Posted January 8, 2011 anyone have a comment on the evolution of this system i mean ya we have models coming in for a storm that is less than 12 hours away. and we can post those but anyone with some real skill see any trends developing regarding the evolution of this storm compared w/ models/ i.e looking at WV / radar etc Nice clear skies here right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 If your talking about logan i have an inch It's funny, I have more here at my house, then over down by Morrissey. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ackwaves Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 2 hours ago i was worried about temps here. we just dropped 6 degrees in that time from 40 down to 34. light N wind. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 On and off snizzle here. Maybe a coating for the 'event'. Very disappointing. Maybe another coating tonight? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 8, 2011 Author Share Posted January 8, 2011 Models definitely appear to be hinting at an inverted trough over the RI/MA border area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ackwaves Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 Nice clear skies here right now. we had that most of the day. now cloudy with falling temps Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 2 hours ago i was worried about temps here. we just dropped 6 degrees in that time from 40 down to 34. light N wind. you should be fine. even if it started as rain, temps aloft are plenty cold once precip gets steady you'd have been mainly snow. question now is just how much qpf actually makes it north. you might be the jackpot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ackwaves Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 you should be fine. even if it started as rain, temps aloft are plenty cold once precip gets steady you'd have been mainly snow. question now is just how much qpf actually makes it north. you might be the jackpot. You might be right but i've learned over 50 years to never underestimate the influence of the ocean temps Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 you should be fine. even if it started as rain, temps aloft are plenty cold once precip gets steady you'd have been mainly snow. question now is just how much qpf actually makes it north. you might be the jackpot. It could get wild down there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 You might be right but i've learned over 50 years to never underestimate the influence of the ocean temps oh i know. LOL. that's a syndrome you develop when you live on the cape/islands/south shore. still...it's a fairly shallow marine layer. thankfully it's not the kind of situation where we are pivoting in lots of "warm" low/mid-level temps so i'm pretty confident most of what falls out there is frozen. you might start as rain or wet snow but as long as precip is steady it should be all white. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 18z RUC does not look good, I only have the 12 hour RUC and it looks horrible. RUC has not been bad when used properly for this last 24-36 hours. It really says this storm is NBD and the 18z NAM jumped that way too. In the end if it plays out like the 18z NAM every model got schooled to some degree but as CCU says let's wait and see. I"m going to watch football, this system is really biting it so far. the RUC, in general, has not looked good at all today for this "event" And so far it's been right. anyone have a comment on the evolution of this system i mean ya we have models coming in for a storm that is less than 12 hours away. and we can post those but anyone with some real skill see any trends developing regarding the evolution of this storm compared w/ models/ i.e looking at WV / radar etc Precip is blossoming but you can already see it's not going to get much further north in terms of the storm snow. Then we're left with the trough/OES type stuff. It's trying to squeeze north but it's far from pretty. I'm confident with the 1-3" widespread Bos to Will to Kev. There's going to be a band of heavier snows somewhere probably in CT/RI or maybe even LI. There may be OES type bands too. 2-4 on the south coast RI/MA and onto Cape Cod with maybe up to 6" in some spots. Thing is the bust potential is large both on the up and downside. Someone near the convergence might get quite a bit more and those just away from that and whatever storm dynamics may not see more than a dusting...even closer to the coast? CCU appreciating the updates. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ackwaves Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 It could get wild down there. what do think the winds will peak at? i just moved my boat into shelter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 Socked in with clouds all day here an occasional flurrries 26.6 That inverted trough is going to surprise some folks tonight..think you can see the beginnings of it setting up now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 It could get wild down there. yeah it should be a fun night out there...perhaps all the way west toward MBY...though i think the worst stays a bit to my east. if i can pull of 4 or 5" i'll be happy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ackwaves Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 oh i know. LOL. that's a syndrome you develop when you live on the cape/islands/south shore. still...it's a fairly shallow marine layer. thankfully it's not the kind of situation where we are pivoting in lots of "warm" low/mid-level temps so i'm pretty confident most of what falls out there is frozen. you might start as rain or wet snow but as long as precip is steady it should be all white. yep. i'm liking that we are still holding a north wind Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 one thing E MA folks should watch for is a slightly better flow for getting some OES going. the flow aloft has been kind of sheared over the last 24 hours so it hasn't been great for development but things align for a time this evening/tonight and perhaps that's enough to get some better bands going. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nutmegfriar Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 Socked in with clouds all day here an occasional flurrries 26.6 That inverted trough is going to surprise some folks tonight..think you can see the beginnings of it setting up now Any guesses as to where it sets up? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 8, 2011 Author Share Posted January 8, 2011 one thing E MA folks should watch for is a slightly better flow for getting some OES going. the flow aloft has been kind of sheared over the last 24 hours so it hasn't been great for development but things align for a time this evening/tonight and perhaps that's enough to get some better bands going. We'll see. If that's the case, we may see some high ratios. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 Socked in with clouds all day here an occasional flurrries 26.6 That inverted trough is going to surprise some folks tonight..think you can see the beginnings of it setting up now folks at NBC in CT should be paying attention...with you taking ryan out to the woodshed and all each day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 what do think the winds will peak at? i just moved my boat into shelter 40+ knots perhaps? I didn't really examine soundings, but I did see boundary layer winds go nuts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cpickett79 Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 yep. i'm liking that we are still holding a north wind i'm not ....i wish it was ESE .....lol but i will just be happy if you get under the CCB late tonite. the damn lowest pressure on the ncep site is probably 300 miles due south/SSE of you Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 one thing E MA folks should watch for is a slightly better flow for getting some OES going. the flow aloft has been kind of sheared over the last 24 hours so it hasn't been great for development but things align for a time this evening/tonight and perhaps that's enough to get some better bands going. Yeah you can see some bands pivot west again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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