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Inverted Trough/ Redeveloper Disco Jan 7-9 - Part III


Baroclinic Zone

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anyone have a comment on the evolution of this system

i mean ya we have models coming in for a storm that is less than 12 hours away. and we can post those but

anyone with some real skill see any trends developing regarding the evolution of this storm compared w/ models/ i.e looking at WV / radar etc

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anyone have a comment on the evolution of this system

i mean ya we have models coming in for a storm that is less than 12 hours away. and we can post those but

anyone with some real skill see any trends developing regarding the evolution of this storm compared w/ models/ i.e looking at WV / radar etc

Nice clear skies here right now.

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2 hours ago i was worried about temps here. we just dropped 6 degrees in that time from 40 down to 34. light N wind. :weight_lift:

you should be fine. even if it started as rain, temps aloft are plenty cold once precip gets steady you'd have been mainly snow. question now is just how much qpf actually makes it north. you might be the jackpot.

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you should be fine. even if it started as rain, temps aloft are plenty cold once precip gets steady you'd have been mainly snow. question now is just how much qpf actually makes it north. you might be the jackpot.

You might be right but i've learned over 50 years to never underestimate the influence of the ocean temps

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You might be right but i've learned over 50 years to never underestimate the influence of the ocean temps

oh i know. LOL. that's a syndrome you develop when you live on the cape/islands/south shore. :lol:

still...it's a fairly shallow marine layer. thankfully it's not the kind of situation where we are pivoting in lots of "warm" low/mid-level temps so i'm pretty confident most of what falls out there is frozen. you might start as rain or wet snow but as long as precip is steady it should be all white.

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18z RUC does not look good, I only have the 12 hour RUC and it looks horrible.

RUC has not been bad when used properly for this last 24-36 hours. It really says this storm is NBD and the 18z NAM jumped that way too. In the end if it plays out like the 18z NAM every model got schooled to some degree but as CCU says let's wait and see. I"m going to watch football, this system is really biting it so far.

the RUC, in general, has not looked good at all today for this "event"

And so far it's been right.

anyone have a comment on the evolution of this system

i mean ya we have models coming in for a storm that is less than 12 hours away. and we can post those but

anyone with some real skill see any trends developing regarding the evolution of this storm compared w/ models/ i.e looking at WV / radar etc

Precip is blossoming but you can already see it's not going to get much further north in terms of the storm snow. Then we're left with the trough/OES type stuff. It's trying to squeeze north but it's far from pretty.

I'm confident with the 1-3" widespread Bos to Will to Kev. There's going to be a band of heavier snows somewhere probably in CT/RI or maybe even LI. There may be OES type bands too. 2-4 on the south coast RI/MA and onto Cape Cod with maybe up to 6" in some spots. Thing is the bust potential is large both on the up and downside. Someone near the convergence might get quite a bit more and those just away from that and whatever storm dynamics may not see more than a dusting...even closer to the coast?

CCU appreciating the updates.

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oh i know. LOL. that's a syndrome you develop when you live on the cape/islands/south shore. :lol:

still...it's a fairly shallow marine layer. thankfully it's not the kind of situation where we are pivoting in lots of "warm" low/mid-level temps so i'm pretty confident most of what falls out there is frozen. you might start as rain or wet snow but as long as precip is steady it should be all white.

yep. i'm liking that we are still holding a north wind

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one thing E MA folks should watch for is a slightly better flow for getting some OES going. the flow aloft has been kind of sheared over the last 24 hours so it hasn't been great for development but things align for a time this evening/tonight and perhaps that's enough to get some better bands going.

We'll see. If that's the case, we may see some high ratios.

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one thing E MA folks should watch for is a slightly better flow for getting some OES going. the flow aloft has been kind of sheared over the last 24 hours so it hasn't been great for development but things align for a time this evening/tonight and perhaps that's enough to get some better bands going.

Yeah you can see some bands pivot west again.

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