NNE slowly approaching winter

[MaineJayhawk]

Mix of sleet and snow ... grill cover analysis shows a coating of accumulation. First of the season.

29.3F

[powderfreak]

Mix of sleet and snow ... grill cover analysis shows a coating of accumulation. First of the season.

29.3F

Congrats man... you've been waiting patiently for that

32F on the nose with -ZR... dark outside so can't tell that well, but it looks like we've been all ZR here as there doesn't appear to be any snow/sleet accum.

Now time to drive the couple miles up to the mountain where the sensor is showing 28F at the base just above 1,500ft, with 28F at 2,300ft, and 24F now on the Mansfield summit obs. How are we not sleeting with that sort of profile? That's indicating sub-freezing air 3,000ft above my head.

[wxeyeNH]

6:15am light freezing rain 29.1F had sleet during the night tried to get off my hill to run up to Walmart in Plymouth to try to get one of those $198 PC's but forget it, my road is impossible with a nice thick glaze! Damn!!

[J.Spin]

As of my 6:00 A.M. observations, the precipitation is mostly freezing rain with a little sleet mixed in. The rain gauge captured 0.12” of liquid, the ice accumulation on the snowboard was in the 0.05” to 0.07” range, and the temperature was 32.7 F.

[cpickett79]

any signs of secondary development

[powderfreak]

30F at 1,550ft... when precip lightens up its freezing rain/mist... heavier bursts go over to sleet and mangled snow flakes. Decent amount of ice on the mountain last night... maybe a half inch of sleet/ice/snow mix on the ground.

[wxeyeNH]

Just went from freezing rain to snow here in NW Lakes region 30F (10am)

[powderfreak]

We must've just mixed or the front moved through because the temp shot up from 30F to 34-35F at 1,550ft... while at 3,600ft the temp just fell from 32F to 28F. Its now straight out snowing above 2,000ft and raining here at the base... so we are back to a more normal, elevation-dependent snow with plain rain in the lower elevations.

Edit: Also just got extremely windy... we are now getting some impressive gusts in the lower elevations. Inversion definitely just mixed out.

[hvysnow79]

We just had a burst of all snow for about 20 minutes, now back to lgt snow/drizzle mix 33F. We have .1" of ice accumulation with a dusting of snow on top of it.

[powderfreak]

We must've just mixed or the front moved through because the temp shot up from 30F to 34-35F at 1,550ft... while at 3,600ft the temp just fell from 32F to 28F. Its now straight out snowing above 2,000ft and raining here at the base... so we are back to a more normal, elevation-dependent snow with plain rain in the lower elevations.

Edit: Also just got extremely windy... we are now getting some impressive gusts in the lower elevations. Inversion definitely just mixed out.

Up to 37F now at 1,550ft... temp is cruising up at the base while at the summit it keeps dropping, so we are certainly seeing CAA at the H9-H85 level now.

Scud clouds are absolutely flying by right now so the wind must be howling up on the ridge at 4,000ft and above.

[MaineJayhawk]

Up to 37F now at 1,550ft... temp is cruising up at the base while at the summit it keeps dropping, so we are certainly seeing CAA at the H9-H85 level now.

Scud clouds are absolutely flying by right now so the wind must be howling up on the ridge at 4,000ft and above.

MWN is ripping gusts at 60

[dryslot]

32.0F .50" snow/sleet, frzrn at the moment..........

[CoastalWx]

Could be a sneaky WINDEX event tomorrow with a line of snow shwrs/squalls in the late morning/afternoon. Best chance is nrn VT/NH and nw Maine, but maybe extending a little south??

[dryslot]

Could be a sneaky WINDEX event tomorrow with a line of snow shwrs/squalls int he late morning/afternoon. Best chance is nrn VT/NH and nw Maine, but maybe extending a little south??

Its possible we may see something out of that, But we get downsloped here......

[tamarack]

Began as IP about 4:45 AM IMBY, then changed to mostly snow - rimey flakes with some IP now and then. Reported 0.8" with 0.14" LE to cocorahs, and total was 1.4" at 10 AM (LE not updated, probably a bit under 1/4") when I came in from the deer chase. Saw partridge and red squirrel tracks, but the only evidence of hooved animals was the mooing of cows on the neighbor farm. Just freezing dz now, temp upper 20s.

Snowsled motored down our road a few minutes ago, toward the club trail on the unmaintained part a few hundred feet past my place. Hope he stuck to that part; if he tried the trail where it goes thru our woodlot he'd soon be plowing mud. Sled came out after 5-10 minutes, but I didn't see it to observe whether he'd found the muck.

[dryslot]

Began as IP about 4:45 AM IMBY, then changed to mostly snow - rimey flakes with some IP now and then. Reported 0.8" with 0.14" LE to cocorahs, and total was 1.4" at 10 AM (LE not updated, probably a bit under 1/4") when I came in from the deer chase. Saw partridge and red squirrel tracks, but the only evidence of hooved animals was the mooing of cows on the neighbor farm. Just freezing dz now, temp upper 20s.

Snowsled motored down our road a few minutes ago, toward the club trail on the unmaintained part a few hundred feet past my place. Hope he stuck to that part; if he tried the trail where it goes thru our woodlot he'd soon be plowing mud. Sled came out after 5-10 minutes, but I didn't see it to observe whether he'd found the muck.

Got to be a nut to take a sled out now, Good way to break the suspension banging rocks and stumps.......

[tamarack]

The light zr switched to -SN at 11, but with nickels and dimes, best looking flakes yet, though they're still falling at a velocity suggesting some rime. Only a narrow band of precip on radar, and now back to teeny flake-things - only 5 minutes of pretty parachutes.

[MaineJayhawk]

The light zr switched to -SN at 11, but with nickels and dimes, best looking flakes yet, though they're still falling at a velocity suggesting some rime. Only a narrow band of precip on radar, and now back to teeny flake-things - only 5 minutes of pretty parachutes.

You will not be pleased with the 12z GFS.

[cpickett79]

upslope snow in the greens later today/tonite/tommorrow

is the trajectory from the west a good enough angle to clear the highest peaks in the adirondacks....powerderfreak?

[dryslot]

You will not be pleased with the 12z GFS.

Jan 2010 all over again.............

[wxeyeNH]

Storm over and sun about to come out. Up to 31F and melting will commence shortly. Just enough, sleet,freezing rain and 10 minutes of snow at the end to whiten up the landscape.

[MaineJayhawk]

Jan 2010 all over again.............

lol ... well actually I was talking about the hvy hvy rainfall. But, yeah, seeing the retro special afterwards made me cringe.

[dryslot]

lol ... well actually I was talking about the hvy hvy rainfall. But, yeah, seeing the retro special afterwards made me cringe.

Need to kick the 1st storm another 150 miles east...........

[powderfreak]

Hey guys... I was just thinking after reading the observations that I'm not even sure exactly where some of you are, especially you NH and ME folks.

Using the mesomap right now I decided to mark my location with a red dot (should've made it bigger, its inside blue circle on lower right of the 33F box). The blue circle is just to show where my obs from the mountain/work are coming from. Those two stations are ones I use at work... 33F is at 1,600ft at the base of Stowe ski resort and the 21F is the summit at 3,900ft. My home is just down the road but like 800ft lower, so I generally run a few degrees warmer than the base area (like right now its 36F out).

I'd be curious to see where some of the rest of you are (like Wxeye, Jayhawk, Dryslot, Tamarack, etc)...

[powderfreak]

upslope snow in the greens later today/tonite/tommorrow

is the trajectory from the west a good enough angle to clear the highest peaks in the adirondacks....powerderfreak?

I'm actually thinking most of our snow shower activity will come in just ahead of the front and during the actual FROPA. It does have a very WINDEX/squally look to it (thanks Coastalwx). The trajectory of the lake effect snow from Ontario looks to be aimed more at far northern VT, in the Jay Peak region. Then as the short wave and front moves through, it pushes the lake band southward. We see this several times a winter and what will happen is the the flow off Ontario will cause moisture to pool in the St Lawrence Valley and northern Champlain Valley (you'll see slightly higher dew points in that region than compared with surrounding areas)... then as the front comes in, it will act on that moisture and cause snow showers and squalls, especially in the upslope and mountain regions.

With the lake effect off Ontario, what usually happens is it will dump in the western Adirondacks... downslope into the Champlain Valley... then upslope again over the Greens causing snow showers to re-develop over the mountains. So it won't be one continuous band of snow stretching from Lake Ontario into the Greens, but you'll see a break in the radar over the Champlain Valley with snow re-developing over the Greens to the east of the Champlain Valley.

Here's BTV's WRF model and the 24 hour precipitation forecast valid from 12z SAT to 12z SUN:

Although the above graphic is over a 24 hour period, most of this falls before and during the frontal passage, in a 3-4 hour period on Saturday afternoon, with the bulk coming in a 1 hour period of squalls. You can clearly see the Champlain Valley dryslot, and then the upsloping of moisture over the Greens causing another precipitation maximum.

Check out Jay Peak which is showed to have a small area of .5-.75" of QPF... they could certainly pick up a quick 6-10" from these snow showers and squalls with good ratios. Most of the rest of the Greens are looking at a more general 1-4" snowfall from snow showers.

Another interesting thing is watching the snow showers and squalls downslope into the CT River Valley along the VT/NH border, then another resurgence of QPF along the NW slopes of the Whites... before finally dying out over southeastern NH and southwestern ME.

[MaineJayhawk]

Hey guys... I was just thinking after reading the observations that I'm not even sure exactly where some of you are, especially you NH and ME folks.

Using the mesomap right now I decided to mark my location with a red dot (should've made it bigger, its inside blue circle on lower right of the 33F box). The blue circle is just to show where my obs from the mountain/work are coming from. Those two stations are ones I use at work... 33F is at 1,600ft at the base of Stowe ski resort and the 21F is the summit at 3,900ft. My home is just down the road but like 800ft lower, so I generally run a few degrees warmer than the base area (like right now its 36F out).

I'd be curious to see where some of the rest of you are (like Wxeye, Jayhawk, Dryslot, Tamarack, etc)...

I guess you must not have signatures enabled - this is on mine. Here I am!

[powderfreak]

I guess you must not have signatures enabled - this is on mine. Here I am!

Ahh, nice. Yeah I don't have sigs on... I find its much easier to read through the posts without them.

I would've assumed you were further NE for some reason. Looks like a great spot to be in for a good, cold, nor'easter

Glad you had some frozen this morning!

[CT Rain]

I'm actually thinking most of our snow shower activity will come in just ahead of the front and during the actual FROPA. It does have a very WINDEX/squally look to it (thanks Coastalwx). The trajectory of the lake effect snow from Ontario looks to be aimed more at far northern VT, in the Jay Peak region. Then as the short wave and front moves through, it pushes the lake band southward. We see this several times a winter and what will happen is the the flow off Ontario will cause moisture to pool in the St Lawrence Valley and northern Champlain Valley (you'll see slightly higher dew points in that region than compared with surrounding areas)... then as the front comes in, it will act on that moisture and cause snow showers and squalls, especially in the upslope and mountain regions.

With the lake effect off Ontario, what usually happens is it will dump in the western Adirondacks... downslope into the Champlain Valley... then upslope again over the Greens causing snow showers to re-develop over the mountains. So it won't be one continuous band of snow stretching from Lake Ontario into the Greens, but you'll see a break in the radar over the Champlain Valley with snow re-developing over the Greens to the east of the Champlain Valley.

Here's BTV's WRF model and the 24 hour precipitation forecast valid from 12z SAT to 12z SUN:

Although the above graphic is over a 24 hour period, most of this falls before and during the frontal passage, in a 3-4 hour period on Saturday afternoon, with the bulk coming in a 1 hour period of squalls. You can clearly see the Champlain Valley dryslot, and then the upsloping of moisture over the Greens causing another precipitation maximum.

Check out Jay Peak which is showed to have a small area of .5-.75" of QPF... they could certainly pick up a quick 6-10" from these snow showers and squalls with good ratios. Most of the rest of the Greens are looking at a more general 1-4" snowfall from snow showers.

Another interesting thing is watching the snow showers and squalls downslope into the CT River Valley along the VT/NH border, then another resurgence of QPF along the NW slopes of the Whites... before finally dying out over southeastern NH and southwestern ME.

Nice post. I wonder if we'll be able to get some squalls as far south as Killington/Okemo tomorrow.

[eekuasepinniW]

Hey guys... I was just thinking after reading the observations that I'm not even sure exactly where some of you are, especially you NH and ME folks.

Using the mesomap right now I decided to mark my location with a red dot

If enough people mark their location, I might plot us all on the map and use that as the new base for the mesomap.

Might be neat.

[MaineJayhawk]

Ahh, nice. Yeah I don't have sigs on... I find its much easier to read through the posts without them.

I would've assumed you were further NE for some reason. Looks like a great spot to be in for a good, cold, nor'easter

Glad you had some frozen this morning!

My sig is full of good information and t-shirt offers. lol

Nor'easter potential is very nice here, though being only 25 miles from the ocean I'm always keeping a wary eye on the r/s line.

Yes, a coating of frozen stuff today - mostly sleet - and though the sun came out just after noon most of it has remained on the ground. So I'll be able to enjoy it for at least into tomorrow.

Nice potential for early December. Hvy hvy model watching and met reading.