Jump to content

  • Member Statistics

    17,586
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    LopezElliana
    Newest Member
    LopezElliana
    Joined

NNE slowly approaching winter

dendrite

By dendrite,
in New England

Recommended Posts

adk

adk

Posted
Posted

00z GFS is very interesting... this has major upslope snow event written all over it.

I really like where this is heading. Regardless of what happens prior, it appears the storm will deepen rapidly off to the northeast of our area.

The 00z GFS solution would be disgusting for us in the Greens up here.. this is a full 24 hour NW flow event.

Hour 162

Still cranking 18 hours later at 180

And remember, in these situations the larger grid models will under-estimate QPF every single time and verbatim this would crush the western slopes, spine, and a good chunk of northern VT.

I bet on a smaller grid model like the WRF or NAM this would be shown as 1"+ QPF along the Green Mountain Spine with a large area of 1/2-1" on immediate areas just west and east of the spine. I'm interested in this storm now, haha.

Scott- your totally right (but remember GFS isn't a grid model its a wave model) about the upslope signature.

Link to comment
Share on other sites
  • Replies 1k
  • Created
  • Last Reply
powderfreak

powderfreak

Posted
Posted

Looks like i will not make freezing here today, Will be the 1st of the season, 31.8F...

:thumbsup:

I had a high of 32F on Friday and now a high of 30F today... most of the day was spent in the upper 20s here in Stowe Village. Up at the ski resort base at 1,500ft we hit a high of 27F.

Snowmakers reported very cold temps at the summit this morning and the Mansfield observations show single digits up there between 2-5am. Low was 7F up there which means amazing man-made snow production.

High at 3,900ft was a brief 20F and it has now slipped back into the mid-teens. Brrrr winter's coming.

Link to comment
Share on other sites
mreaves

mreaves

Posted
Posted

Spent the evening at a camp outside of Hardwick last night. It is located at the top of about 3/4 of a mile of fields at about 1500' with a view that stretches from Mansfield to Jay Peak. The winds up there yesterday were pretty outrageous. It had to be blowing consistently at 25 mph with much higher gusts. The way the camp is situated really puts it in the teeth of northwest winds. It was howling so much that at times smoke would be pushed back dow the chimney. There was also traces of snow remaining . Down to 23F here.

Link to comment
Share on other sites
J.Spin

J.Spin

Posted
Posted
The 00z GFS solution would be disgusting for us in the Greens up here.. this is a full 24 hour NW flow event.

Thanks for the upslope update Scott, that’s going to be very interesting to monitor. The resorts could certainly use an event like that to help get things rolling. I’m also interested in seeing how it plays out in terms of snowfall in the valleys around here. I’ve been following the New England thread about the potential Thanksgiving event, with many people in SNE saying how November snowfall isn’t something to really be concerned with, but based on the four years of snowfall data I have so far I’d argue that’s not necessarily the case up here. In the two bigger snowfall seasons of ’07-’08 and ’08-’09 we had roughly 20 inches of snow in November, vs. essentially nothing in ’06-’07 and ’09-’10:

novvsseasonsnowfalltablethrough0910.jpg

It’s certainly not going to be as black and white as those four seasons worth of data all the time, but I brought it up because the trend was quite striking. Whatever happens down the line, a November with little or no snow definitely means a hit in terms of getting to the bigger seasonal snowfall totals; if November’s potential isn’t realized, those inches of snow would have to be made up somewhere else. So far this season we’ve had 1.8 inches of November snow/sleet, which already puts us ahead of the seasons that were essentially snowless, and into some sort of middle ground, so it’s going to be fun to see how the rest of the month plays out.

As others mentioned, we also saw that round of frozen precipitation yesterday. It was all graupel here, and came down quite hard for a bit, but temperatures were too warm for any notable accumulation.

On another wintry note, we actually saw our lowest temperature of the season last night here at the house, with the memory thermometer recording a low of 22.8 F. It stayed quite cold out there today. I’m not sure how high the temperature got, but as of noon we still hadn’t broken above the freezing mark.

It sounds like our next shot at frozen precipitation comes tonight into tomorrow morning at the start of this next system. Our point and click forecast has us receiving snow and sleet tonight, and then freezing rain into tomorrow, although from the BTV NWS discussion it doesn’t sound like they’re worried about much in the way of accumulation before the temperatures warm. After that, the next chances for frozen precipitation down here in the valley appear to be Tuesday night into Wednesday, and then Thursday night through Sunday.

Link to comment
Share on other sites
dryslot

dryslot

Posted
Posted

:thumbsup:

I had a high of 32F on Friday and now a high of 30F today... most of the day was spent in the upper 20s here in Stowe Village. Up at the ski resort base at 1,500ft we hit a high of 27F.

Snowmakers reported very cold temps at the summit this morning and the Mansfield observations show single digits up there between 2-5am. Low was 7F up there which means amazing man-made snow production.

High at 3,900ft was a brief 20F and it has now slipped back into the mid-teens. Brrrr winter's coming.

Looks like we are headed for the coldest night of the year so far 20.8F already.......

Link to comment
Share on other sites
powderfreak

powderfreak

Posted
Posted

Looks like we are headed for the coldest night of the year so far 20.8F already.......

Yeah you are going to fall a lot more than we are over here in VT just based on WAA reaching us first and putting a cap on things. I'm at 25F right now and temps have pretty much been holding steady for the past 2 hours. I'm not sure we get any lower.

Link to comment
Share on other sites
dryslot

dryslot

Posted
Posted

Yeah you are going to fall a lot more than we are over here in VT just based on WAA reaching us first and putting a cap on things. I'm at 25F right now and temps have pretty much been holding steady for the past 2 hours. I'm not sure we get any lower.

I think we may be heading that way as well, We may have bottomed out here as well as temp has come up to 21.4F, Under partly cloudy skys.......

Link to comment
Share on other sites
MaineJayhawk

MaineJayhawk

Posted
Posted

Yeah, 70% wintery mix here to, I'm waiting for the Black Friday storm and def the one around the 1st of dec, We have quite a bit of potentail coming finally!!

Yeah, the 12/1ish sounds like it could be a winner from what the experts say. So far out, so we'll see about that.

Work productivity at all-time lows with iTouch in hand.

Link to comment
Share on other sites
MaineJayhawk

MaineJayhawk

Posted
Posted

Forecast today calling for snow/sleet accums under half an inch, which is of course NBD but it'd be my first this season so it happens to be a VBD to me. Precip in CNH now, headed this way but I'll be in PWM by the time it gets here so hopefully it remains in the form of frozen something or other as I gaze dreamily out the office window.

28.4F

Link to comment
Share on other sites
J.Spin

J.Spin

Posted
Posted
It sounds like our next shot at frozen precipitation comes tonight into tomorrow morning at the start of this next system. Our point and click forecast has us receiving snow and sleet tonight, and then freezing rain into tomorrow, although from the BTV NWS discussion it doesn’t sound like they’re worried about much in the way of accumulation before the temperatures warm.

Event #1 this week delivered some light frozen precipitation for our location. We had a fairly thin glaze of sleet/freezing rain on the snowboards this morning, though nothing that reached reportable accumulation beyond a trace. It seems that was common in the area based on some of the local CoCoRaHS text reports, and there were a few schools delayed etc. due to the icing as well. In Roger Hill’s broadcast this morning, he suggested that things will clear out later Tuesday into Wednesday, with just some mountain flurry/snow shower activity, so not much is expected with Event #2. For event #3 at the end of the week though, he suggested that there could be enough frozen precipitation to present travel issues. The BTV NWS discussion indicates that they are unsure of the type of precipitation at this point so we’ll just have to wait a bit on that one.

Link to comment
Share on other sites
red

red

Posted
Posted

31 right now in Bangor. It was snowing lightly on the way into work and we have a light coating of snow on the ground. Radar looks fairly quiet but we might get clipped with some of the snow showers moving down from the north before it warms up too much. Nice to see the white stuff on the ground. Looks like something to track for Friday.

I was up north, in Oakfield Maine on Saturday and they had a solid 2 inches of snow with light snow on and off all day. Nothing doing IMBY on Saturday though.

Link to comment
Share on other sites
tamarack

tamarack

Posted
Posted

Black ice........ftl, Numerous bad wrecks on 95N between Aug and Wtvl.............. :thumbsdown:

Saw no signs of problems just to the north - New Sharon to Fairfield to BGR, 7:45-9:30 this morning, though everywhere had about the same dusting of snow grains as in MBY. Same story coming home 3-4:45, but my pickup left in New Sharon had a few icicles hanging from hood and sides from ZR. We drove thru RA at temps (vehicle instrument) 39 falling to 34 coming home, and 33 but no precip the final 20 miles.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Archived

This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.

Guest
This topic is now closed to further replies.
Go to topic listing

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.
×
×
  • Create New...