NNE slowly approaching winter

[J.Spin]

Event #2 starts on Tuesday night, and has some snow potential on Wednesday night, but not really much for the floors of the lower valleys. System #3 comes in as we approach the weekend, with more potential for snow at all elevations. None of these systems are expected to be very large, but Roger suggested that tracking snow for hunters could be around with those second two systems depending on elevation.

I haven't been out and about yet, but thanks for the snow observations from those that sent them in; I'm heading up to Morrisville later this morning, and it will be nice to check out the snow on the various ranges. Things seem generally on track with Roger Hill's thoughts that I posted at the beginning of the week and pasted above. Hopefully the snow last night will be helpful for hunters hitting those higher elevations. It looked like we had some snow mixing in down here after midnight last night, but no accumulation at this elevation as expected. We did pick up close to an inch of rain from that system though, and I believe we've passed 50 inches of liquid for the calendar year at this location, but I'll have to check my numbers later. Based on temperatures way down in the 20s F for system #3 tomorrow night, accumulations are definitely possible even in the lower valleys, although in his broadcast this morning, Roger was saying that he expects the Northern 1/3 of Vermont to be favored there, so we might be on the fringe. Snow of some sort is in our NWS point and click for every period through Saturday though, so we'll certainly have something to watch.

[wxeyeNH]

You guys in Vermont will get nickeled and dimed with snow chances with upsloping over the next several days why I stay 100% dry just lee of the mountains in Central NH. Not a trace of snow yet this season. Although I don't keep good weather records its seemsI have always had at least some snow up here at 1100 feet by Thanksgiving. (since moving here in 2001) It is nice to have no salt on the sides of the roads.

[wxeyeNH]

12Z finally brings a bonified major snow threat to NNE/CNE around Thanksgiving. Nice Miller B intensifying as it moves from WSW to ENE just south of us. I usually don't start bothering to watch will be are within about 5 days but lots going on over the holiday and since this is the first one of the season I will start paying attention a bit early.

[dryslot]

12Z finally brings a bonified major snow threat to NNE/CNE around Thanksgiving. Nice Miller B intensifying as it moves from WSW to ENE just south of us. I usually don't start bothering to watch will be are within about 5 days but lots going on over the holiday and since this is the first one of the season I will start paying attention a bit early.

That was a great run for us here on the 12z gfs, Will have to watch over the next few days to see if it continues or it was just a hiccup, With the blocking upstream it does look like its a more plasible solution then a cutter but will need to see the Euro come on board as well........

[powderfreak]

I was wondering what you would have to report this morning. As soon as I got on I89 headed to work I could see that it had snowed in the mountains. Camel's Hump and the Worcester Range have a white coating. It looks like it starts somewhere between 1500' and 2000'.

Yeah that sounds just about right based on what I've seen today on Mansfield. This is the time of year when my work shifts to the mountain and I love getting back into the swing of having a computer and work-space at 1,550ft in the Mountain Operations Center at Stowe Mtn Resort. As the webcams this morning showed, there was snow from about 1,600ft on up with solid accumulations beginning right around 1,800ft. I just left work and by this afternoon the accumulating snow line seemed to have melted up to about 2,000ft. Temp was 35F at 1,500-1,600ft range with occasional light flurries all day today. Snow guns are roaring up on the mountain as the resort gears up for opening day (which was scheduled for Saturday but has been pushed back to next Wednesday due to the recent warmth).

Even down here in town at my place its 37F and there are a couple flurries floating down right now. Nothing showing up on radar and no visibility restrictions, but always nice to see a few flakes floating around.

[powderfreak]

12Z finally brings a bonified major snow threat to NNE/CNE around Thanksgiving. Nice Miller B intensifying as it moves from WSW to ENE just south of us. I usually don't start bothering to watch will be are within about 5 days but lots going on over the holiday and since this is the first one of the season I will start paying attention a bit early.

This would be very, very welcomed... definitely would give the ski season the shot in the arm that it needs right now.

Alas, the EURO looks like a cutter and I'm still of the opinion that this is a rain event for pretty much everyone. Only saving grace would be the tanking NAO and upstream blocking may try to force this just south of us. With that said, I've still got this feeling that it ends up tracking through the St Lawrence River Valley leaving the only snow chances to be backside upslope in nature.

[powderfreak]

Interesting little feature showing up on the NAM/WRF for tonight... vort max swings through and the meso-scale models are spitting out a few hundredths to a tenth of an inch (over Jay Peak on BTV's 4km WRF) tonight. I'm wondering if we see a resurgence of snow showers over the upslope region of northern VT as this vort max swings through.

Obviously wouldn't be much of anything, but it looks like it may be enough to dust the snowboards across the northern Greens tonight.

Then, attention turns to the weak clipper for Friday night and Saturday morning... BTV's mesoscale model is showing another shot of measurable for the upslope region and spine area with that system... has a tenth of an inch or more centered over the higher terrain from Jay Peak to Mansfield, but some of us in the immediate vicinity of the spine may also be able to pick up a dusting or so from that.

[klw]

It's been snowing here in Peacham for at least the past 20 minutes. Not sticking from what I can tell.

[powderfreak]

It's been snowing here in Peacham for at least the past 20 minutes. Not sticking from what I can tell.

I bet you pick up at least a dusting/coating tonight... I'm thinking I've got a chance and so does J.Spin. Hopefully mreaves is just far enough north but this looks like a I-89 and north snow shower episode, but who knows.

Its been flurrying here for about a half hour now but starting to come down more steadily. Roads are becoming damp.

I've been looking for a burst of snow showers this evening/tonight in the mountains with the vort max crossing w/ good upsloping flow... and radar confirms blossoming precipitation as the moisture starts upsloping into the Greens. West and northern sides of Mansfield (Underhill, Cambridge, Jeffersonville) are getting into some 25-30dbz so I bet they are seeing some decent visibility restrictions... ie. 3/4-1sm -SN

NW flow evident on VAD out of BTV... usually 20-25kts isn't enough for upslope but with some mid level support, its enough.

[J.Spin]

I'm heading up to Morrisville later this morning, and it will be nice to check out the snow on the various ranges.

It was nice to see the snow in the Worcester Range today, but even more dramatic were the views of the spine of the Greens and the slopes of Mt. Mansfield. With how white everything was, I was surprised to see that the stake report for this evening was just an inch of new snow. I saw a few flakes in the midday period in Morrisville, and there have been more tonight at the house. My wife just came through Stowe and Morrisville about a half an hour ago and said it was snowing more there, with even a little white on the ground.

Thanks for the updates and maps Scott; we’ve got the temperatures for snow now, even if the moisture is rather limited. We’ll see if the snowboard gets dusted tonight – flakes have definitely been landing there, but we’re still in the mid to upper 30s F so there’s been nothing that amounts to measurable snow. Our point and click has us down to 29 F tonight, so if the activity keeps up enough some flakes could stick. Looking at the BTV composite radar, another round of moisture seems to be moving in:

LOL, it looks like I grabbed the radar sequence ending just after yours above!

[dendrite]

Snowing at 1400' in Springfield, NH right now.

http://vortex.plymouth.edu/cgi-bin/gen_nh_rwis.cgi?id=656001

So far nothing has reached the ground here.

[powderfreak]

Light snow continues but its tapered back to just flurries with a high vis. We did have a nice 15 minute period of decent snow that whitened the elevated surfaces like car tops, garbage cans, deck railings, etc. The flakes were classic upslope dendrites... that fluffy, floaty, snow-globe stuff that would produce great ratios if temps were just a few degrees lower. Unfortunately its still pretty warm at 33.7F so the grass and pavement are just wet and its going to need to continue for quite a while for us to get measurable.

[J.Spin]

We’ve dropped another couple of degrees F, diameter is up to 2-4 mm for some of the flakes, and the snowfall intensity has increased. I haven’t seen enough on the board yet to hit that tenth of an inch mark to put this in the books, but we’re getting pretty close. I’ll see if anything happens with this next pulse of moisture coming in:

[MaineJayhawk]

Light snow continues but its tapered back to just flurries with a high vis. We did have a nice 15 minute period of decent snow that whitened the elevated surfaces like car tops, garbage cans, deck railings, etc. The flakes were classic upslope dendrites... that fluffy, floaty, snow-globe stuff that would produce great ratios if temps were just a few degrees lower. Unfortunately its still pretty warm at 33.7F so the grass and pavement are just wet and its going to need to continue for quite a while for us to get measurable.

Well, ain't this great? I have the cold (25.3F) but no moisture. You have the moisture, but are too warm.

[wxeyeNH]

34.5F very light flurries occuring.

[J.Spin]

Well, that didn’t take long. Seeing that next impulse on the radar, I took a look outside, and flake size was up to ~10 mm diameter, with another jump in snowfall intensity. That quickly got the accumulation on the board to the tenth of an inch mark. I’d forgotten that sound of big flakes hitting surfaces when everything else is quiet, and it was very cool. While I was out looking around and checking the snowboard, the snowfall intensified even further, with some flakes up to probably 15 mm diameter. It was really coming down with almost moderate intensity there, and it felt like a winter storm. We’re still at ~36 F, but if this stuff keeps up and we drop a few degrees we are definitely going to have something in the morning. I’ve certainly missed this frozen upslope stuff. I’m trying to sit here and grade exams, but I have to admit that I’m distracted by my curiosity of what’s going on outside. Walking around among those huge flakes really raises the spirits.

[dryslot]

Well, ain't this great? I have the cold (25.3F) but no moisture. You have the moisture, but are too warm.

Patience, Its going to be a NNE winter....

[frostman]

Well, ain't this great? I have the cold (25.3F) but no moisture. You have the moisture, but are too warm.

Jayhawk ..did you clear out? Buxton and Gorham are both 29 ... whats your sky cover?

[MaineJayhawk]

Jayhawk ..did you clear out? Buxton and Gorham are both 29 ... whats your sky cover?

Sorry, Frosty, didn't mean to ignore you. Bedtime called. Anyway, no idea what the cover was.

21.9F

[hvysnow79]

Received a dusting in the early morning hours. Drive into work was in and out of -SHSN, with a few patches of snow covering the roads.

[powderfreak]

30F -SN

Eyeballing it I'd say we have a fresh 1/2" or so on elevated and grassy surfaces. Everything is white except for pavement which is just wet.

Gonna have to brush the car off this morning

Looking at the obs last night, MVL and MPV both had some decent shots of snow (thanks to orographic lift) while BTV was left dry. I love seeing the two interior VT ASOS sites report hour after hour of light snow while BTV is just cloudy.

I'm curious as to what others picked up... I bet klm, J.Spin, and Mreaves all have something to report this morning.

The closest thing to a real-time pic... here's a webcam out of Morrisville (not far from KMVL) and representative of what it looks like outside my place, too:

And a few miles up the road from me at the ski resort base:

Any of this make it over to you guys in NH and ME?

[TalcottWx]

30F -SN

Eyeballing it I'd say we have a fresh 1/2" or so on elevated and grassy surfaces. Everything is white except for pavement which is just wet.

Gonna have to brush the car off this morning

Looking at the obs last night, MVL and MPV both had some decent shots of snow (thanks to orographic lift) while BTV was left dry. I love seeing the two interior VT ASOS sites report hour after hour of light snow while BTV is just cloudy.

I'm curious as to what others picked up... I bet klm, J.Spin, and Mreaves all have something to report this morning.

The closest thing to a real-time pic... here's a webcam out of Morrisville (not far from KMVL) and representative of what it looks like outside my place, too:

And a few miles up the road from me at the ski resort base:

Any of this make it over to you guys in NH and ME?

Dusting here

[MaineJayhawk]

Any of this make it over to you guys in NH and ME?

I am the only person in the northeast that has not seen any frozen yet this season.

[J.Spin]

Event Totals: 0.4” snow/0.02” L.E.

Although the 0.1” of snow from last night melted since the temperature was ~36 F at the time, there was another 0.3” of snow on the board this morning on top of the melted material (which had refrozen into a sheet of ice). The liquid obtained from the entirety of the precipitation totaled 0.02”. The thermometer was reading ~33 F at this morning’s 6:00 A.M. observations, but clearly it was cold enough to freeze the liquid. The grass in our area was covered with the new dusting of snow, so it stuck on both elevated surfaces and ground, but paved surfaces were just wet. I saw a couple of cars on the road with respectable accumulations of up to an inch, but there’s no snow accumulation visible in the Burlington area.

[dryslot]

I am the only person in the northeast that has not seen any frozen yet this season.

If you want to call my 2 min of a couple sleet pellets in +RN, Ok...Really none of us other then Northern and NW maine have seen squat....Yet.....

[mreaves]

Looks like about 1/2" at my place. Very similar coverage to powderfreak's photo. The coverage remained about the same down into the valley and up the other side to I89. By the time I got here to downtown Montpelier though, there is virtually nothing except for a dusting on the mulch piles at the base of trees.

[klw]

We had a dusting in Peacham and there was a heavier dusting in Danville and in St. J. There were a couple of spots on Route 2 that were snow covered and the radio was reporting an accident had closed a portion of I-91 and they were telling people to drive on flatter roads if possible due to icy roads.

[powderfreak]

Snow globe flurries right now... a very solid coating of around an inch here at 1,000ft where I'm working today. Sun light and fat, fluffy, flakes floating around makes for quite a wintery scene with snow on the ground and evergreens.

Quite the invigorating morning and feels good to have some white out there as opposed to the usual November brown.

[dendrite]

There's a little dusting of snow on the ground here. Looks like it snowed around 630-7.

[CoastalWx]

I am the only person in the northeast that has not seen any frozen yet this season.

I still haven't seen a "real" flake yet. Mangled crap and sleet don't count in my book.