NNE slowly approaching winter

[MaineJayhawk]

Grill cover analysis shows a dusting ... porch light analysis reveals flakes are larger. Perhaps a fractional reading will come out of this mess.

[dendrite]

I hate making 0.1" be my first measurable of the season, but it is what it is. 20.1F with varying sized stellar dendrites but mostly of the larger variety. Getting some dendritic aggregates too.

[J.Spin]

I was driving into Morrisville for a Christmas concert in the 5 P.M. to 6 P.M. range this evening, and didn’t see anything in terms of precipitation except a couple of stray flakes in the Jonesville area. However, when I came out of the concert around 7:00 P.M., I was greeted by steady light snow falling. The flakes were small, just a couple mm or so as others have mentioned, but it was definitely accumulating. Driving back to Waterbury, the snow tapered off a bit along the Morrisville/Stowe line, and then there was a nice resurgence through the center of Stowe before it tapered off altogether when I crossed the Stowe/Waterbury line. There was essentially nothing falling in Waterbury, until it started building as I approached the house and we were getting at least some light stuff. Small flakes continued at the house, and by about 10:30 P.M. we’d picked up probably a half inch on the board. I was heading off to bed around 11:00 P.M., and decided to take one last look outside… I’m glad I did, because huge, one-inch diameter flakes were pouring down. For some strange reason that gave me the urge to stay up a little longer to check the radar and grab a quick measurement off the snowboard. The accumulation had jumped to just shy of 1.3 inches, and it seems like we were on the edge of some of those 30 db echoes that started to appear to the east of Burlington:

The flakes have come back down in size now, but as of ~11:30 P.M. the accumulation on the board is 1.9 inches. The local mountains usually do at least as well as down here, so perhaps we’ll have another coating to freshen up the slopes for tomorrow. The back end of the precipitation is approaching, so we probably won’t get too much more from this impulse, although there is some signal building in what looks like another small wave along the NY/QC border.

[J.Spin]

Event totals: 1.9” Snow/0.08” L.E.

Saturday 12/11/2010 12:00 A.M. update: Well I was up, so the midnight analysis is below. Some graupel balls fell in the mix, and the accumulation didn’t get any higher than 1.9”, but there’s still light snow falling so we’ll see if anything else of note comes down tonight. The big punch here seemed to be near the back end of the main push of moisture, so maybe you guys off to the east will get into some of it as well. Details from the midnight update are below:

New Snow: 1.9 inches

New Liquid: 0.08 inches

Snow/Water Ratio: 23.8

Snow Density: 4.2%

Temperature: 19.4 F

Sky: Light snow (1-4 mm flakes with a few graupel balls)

Snow at the stake: 8.0 inches

[MaineJayhawk]

A studly 0.2" in the coffer. At this rate, I should have a good 3" seasonal total by the new year.

[MaineJayhawk]

About 23° warmer this morning than yesterday at this time.

[powderfreak]

Somewhere between 1-2" of new snow overnight... it was enough for them to plow our parking lot again. and dust up the trees and cars with a fresh blanket. The evergreens look fantastic with large clumps of powder snow clinging to areas of them and a fresh coat of white covering up the visible green.

Ski Resort is reporting 2-4" overnight up the road.

[J.Spin]

Somewhere between 1-2" of new snow overnight... it was enough for them to plow our parking lot again. and dust up the trees and cars with a fresh blanket. The evergreens look fantastic with large clumps of powder snow clinging to areas of them and a fresh coat of white covering up the visible green.

Ski Resort is reporting 2-4" overnight up the road.

Thanks for the update Scott, that’s the number I said I was expecting to hear when I told my wife about the two inches of snow here last night, Bolton’s report has 2-3” for them. Bolton is dropping the ropes on 8 more trails today; I was up for a few turns yesterday and suspected that they would have more to open.

Just another tenth of an inch here and a trace of liquid to add to the event total, numbers below:

Event totals: 2.0” Snow/0.08” L.E.

Saturday 12/11/2010 6:00 A.M. update:

New Snow: 0.1 inches

New Liquid: Trace

Temperature: 24.1 F

Sky: Cloudy

Snow at the stake: 7.0 inches

[dryslot]

23.4F, Nice dusting of 0.01", Soon to be gone...............

[Lava Rock]

was hoping to wake up to a different forecast, but alas, nothing but pain coming our way

[hvysnow79]

.3" fell overnight

Yesterday noticed the CT River had complete ice coverage from Hanover up to Lyme, and then down to just ice along the side up through Orford.

[tamarack]

was hoping to wake up to a different forecast, but alas, nothing but pain coming our way

Only change I noted this morning was to increase the top-end potential qpf 1/2" to 3.5". Also, the rest of the week's "return of the cold" looks right about seasonal temps, somewhere in the "normal to +5" range.

Last night's "storm" exceeded my expectations (which were "nada") by dropping 0.3"; a few more flakes about 9 AM. This is now the latest in the season I've gone here (13th season) without seeing at least one 2" snowfall.

[Lava Rock]

Only change I noted this morning was to increase the top-end potential qpf 1/2" to 3.5". Also, the rest of the week's "return of the cold" looks right about seasonal temps, somewhere in the "normal to +5" range.

Last night's "storm" exceeded my expectations (which were "nada") by dropping 0.3"; a few more flakes about 9 AM. This is now the latest in the season I've gone here (13th season) without seeing at least one 2" snowfall.

yep, off to a great start aren't we? jeez, hearing up to 4" rain potential. snowmobile trails are going to be in rough shape when we do get snow. i won't be surprised if we have no snow on the ground, at least at my house by xmas. just saying...

[skierinvermont]

GFS upped the QPF from the 00z to the 06z to the 12z for the upslope from the regrograding storms. 60-hr totals:

00z:

06z:

12z:

[MaineJayhawk]

Sitting in a McD's in North Conway, NH using their wifi ... doing some shopping here and said "hell with it" and went up 302 to Crawford Notch. Took some pics, will post some if they're decent. Snow is covering the ground up there ... I guessed maybe a foot snowpack but could be more. Don't think I ever traveled to the Whites in winter ... Very beautiful. My pics won't do it justice.

[Lava Rock]

Sitting in a McD's in North Conway, NH using their wifi ... doing some shopping here and said "hell with it" and went up 302 to Crawford Notch. Took some pics, will post some if they're decent. Snow is covering the ground up there ... I guessed maybe a foot snowpack but could be more. Don't think I ever traveled to the Whites in winter ... Very beautiful. My pics won't do it justice.

look forward to the pics. my wife and I love north conway. only about 50 min from our house.

[dendrite]

Had 0.2" of snow last night.

Already down to 30F following a high of 36F. There's a clear thermal gradient setting up from the Monads-Canterbury-DAW separating near 30F to the north and U30s to near 40F to the south.

[MaineJayhawk]

look forward to the pics. my wife and I love north conway. only about 50 min from our house.

Yeah, such a cool place and so close. I take a literal scenic route (160 thru Parsonsfield then 153 from Freedom to Conway) and it takes about an hour. Pics are about to be put up in the picture thread.

[powderfreak]

GFS upped the QPF from the 00z to the 06z to the 12z for the upslope from the regrograding storms. 60-hr totals:

12z:

Nice... during this last event it had us right in the .25-.5" QPF zone and we wound up with a lot of snow. But I guess that's to be expected when you get .5" of QPF with 30-40:1 ratios. Verbatim the GFS is forecasting another solid uslope snow event.

[Ginx snewx]

Nice... during this last event it had us right in the .25-.5" QPF zone and we wound up with a lot of snow. But I guess that's to be expected when you get .5" of QPF with 30-40:1 ratios. Verbatim the GFS is forecasting another solid uslope snow event.

I think you will be very happy when all is said and done with an excellent base of solidified cement that you will build on, nice

[skierinvermont]

Nice... during this last event it had us right in the .25-.5" QPF zone and we wound up with a lot of snow. But I guess that's to be expected when you get .5" of QPF with 30-40:1 ratios. Verbatim the GFS is forecasting another solid uslope snow event.

Yeah this could be awesome.. I think it upped it again on the 18z and is showing constant upslope until like Christmas. I am always uneasy though until the snow is on the ground

[powderfreak]

I think you will be very happy when all is said and done with an excellent base of solidified cement that you will build on, nice

Yeah, hopefully we can keep some snow around through this upcoming rain.... I'm 100% positive we lose all snow down here in town, but up at the mountain there's no way all of that melts. Once it freezes there will at least be some sort of solid layer of snow on the ground to protect ski bases from rocks and such... because upslope is almost always incredibly fluffy, dry snow this time of year. Very much like Lake Effect... relatively low QPF but big snowfall due to ratios.

Yeah this could be awesome.. I think it upped it again on the 18z and is showing constant upslope until like Christmas. I am always uneasy though until the snow is on the ground

Me too. The thing with upslope is you never really know what's going to happen until its pretty much happening. I've seen great looking set-ups drop only 3-4" and then marginal set-ups put down two feet overnight. You just never know... but what is virtually guaranteed is that it will snow at least a little bit. Whether its 2-5" or 12-24" remains to be seen.

[kulaginman]

6 days until I arrive at Jay Peak. Let's get the rain out of the way and get that upslope machine cranking again!!!

[Ginx snewx]

Yeah, hopefully we can keep some snow around through this upcoming rain.... I'm 100% positive we lose all snow down here in town, but up at the mountain there's no way all of that melts. Once it freezes there will at least be some sort of solid layer of snow on the ground to protect ski bases from rocks and such... because upslope is almost always incredibly fluffy, dry snow this time of year. Very much like Lake Effect... relatively low QPF but big snowfall due to ratios.

Me too. The thing with upslope is you never really know what's going to happen until its pretty much happening. I've seen great looking set-ups drop only 3-4" and then marginal set-ups put down two feet overnight. You just never know... but what is virtually guaranteed is that it will snow at least a little bit. Whether its 2-5" or 12-24" remains to be seen.

About your loss in town, frza rn first? Locks the snow in?

[powderfreak]

About your loss in town, frza rn first? Locks the snow in?

Maybe... I'd take some sleet too. I bet the snowbanks will hold but not sure about the pack. Hopefully a surface inversion can lock some low level cold in.

[powderfreak]

Since this will be our last day with a nice, powdery, mid-winter-like snow cover... here are a few photos from this morning. I measured 1.6" overnight and it added a nice light, fresh white to everything. High of 32F today, currently 30F.

Snowpack on roof and hedgerow.

The snow covered evergreens have been a nice sight lately.

Hopefully the upslope machine will replenish us after this rain.

[powderfreak]

Yeah this could be awesome.. I think it upped it again on the 18z and is showing constant upslope until like Christmas. I am always uneasy though until the snow is on the ground

The 18z GFS would be near historic upslope flow pattern... that's like a 10 day event and I don't think I've ever seen anything like that on a model prog. It would never happen but fun to look at. What I do think it continues to signal is there is a good chance of at least a low-moderate upslope event over the next week to ten days...the pattern seems ripe for retrograding storms and they seem to like tracking north of us while decaying, which seems to keep us locked in a moist, low level NW flow. WAA from the maritimes over-riding a low level upslope flow FTW

[nzucker]

I think you will be very happy when all is said and done with an excellent base of solidified cement that you will build on, nice

I don't think so, they'll lose a bunch of snow from the rain and then just get some fluffy upslope to cover up a bit of icy ground...doesn't sound like great skiing. Vermont will make out better than the ski resorts in NH/ME which look to get hit with heavier QPF, however. I'm not expecting nearly all the snow to melt in the Greens, no way, although places like Sunday River could get into trouble if they "jackpot."

[tamarack]

I don't think so, they'll lose a bunch of snow from the rain and then just get some fluffy upslope to cover up a bit of icy ground...doesn't sound like great skiing. Vermont will make out better than the ski resorts in NH/ME which look to get hit with heavier QPF, however. I'm not expecting nearly all the snow to melt in the Greens, no way, although places like Sunday River could get into trouble if they "jackpot."

With some models showing 3" RA in 12-18 hr, Sunday River et.al. may spend the week fixing erosion channels through the manmade base. Also, the smaller brooks ought to go berserk if we get that kind of rain on frozen ground, thus the flood watches. S.Maine now under high wind warning, which may be extended depending on what the day shift at GYX thinks.

[hvysnow79]

I really wish this was going to be an all snow event. This reminds me of when I use to live on the Cape, with the sandwich effect, snow to start, rain, then snow to end. I will enjoy the light snow and 20F while it lasts .