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NNE slowly approaching winter

dendrite

By dendrite,
in New England

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tamarack

tamarack

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1st subzero of the season, but barely, -1/-2 (didn't check the max/min), as the wind didn't quite let up. Long Pond by Belgrade Village was about 1/3 skimmed over with light ripples on most of the open water as I drove by just before sunrise. Yest temps were 20/10, 1st day with 50 hdd, which is my threshold for "winter-like temps". Put the light jacket in the closet and wore the medium wgt this morn. :whistle:

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dendrite

dendrite

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UP to 15 now under clouds. Forecast high for mid 20s fail? I like overperforming cold, perhaps our first day with highs in the teens.

It should keep warming slowly right into afternoon despite the clouds...we'll see. 15F here now after a low of 3F.

BML -14F

SLK -18F

Impressive

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MaineJayhawk

MaineJayhawk

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1st subzero of the season, but barely, -1/-2 (didn't check the max/min), as the wind didn't quite let up. Long Pond by Belgrade Village was about 1/3 skimmed over with light ripples on most of the open water as I drove by just before sunrise. Yest temps were 20/10, 1st day with 50 hdd, which is my threshold for "winter-like temps". Put the light jacket in the closet and wore the medium wgt this morn. :whistle:

Wore gloves for the first time yesterday afternoon for the drive home ... the steering wheel is essentially a ring of ice for some time. Or I'm a wuss - I'll let the reader decide.

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tamarack

tamarack

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Must....stop....taking....models....seriously.....

However, the 12z gfs is remarkable for its horribleness. The Sun-Mon storm no longer appears to develop much of a secondary, the primary ends up in Ontario, qpf up to 2.5"+ for my area, h85 climbs to +7-8C, what's not to despise?

Then all the later threats have disappeared, at least temporarily, and even the post-torch cold is gone - or at least content to sit and rot in the midwest. Temps cool from the +15 early next week but then remain +5 or so at least thru Christmas, except for CAR where they are +10. The only thing that looked much like a storm, out around d10-11, appears to head due east and remain south of here, a 90 degree shift from the northward path of Sun-Mon that allows that system to stay west. Hope that I'm misinterpreting it...

:thumbsdown: :thumbsdown:

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Roger

Roger

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Wore gloves for the first time yesterday afternoon for the drive home ... the steering wheel is essentially a ring of ice for some time. Or I'm a wuss - I'll let the reader decide.

My new car has a heated steering wheel, no more rings of ice for me. :thumbsup:

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dryslot

dryslot

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Must....stop....taking....models....seriously.....

However, the 12z gfs is remarkable for its horribleness. The Sun-Mon storm no longer appears to develop much of a secondary, the primary ends up in Ontario, qpf up to 2.5"+ for my area, h85 climbs to +7-8C, what's not to despise?

Then all the later threats have disappeared, at least temporarily, and even the post-torch cold is gone - or at least content to sit and rot in the midwest. Temps cool from the +15 early next week but then remain +5 or so at least thru Christmas, except for CAR where they are +10. The only thing that looked much like a storm, out around d10-11, appears to head due east and remain south of here, a 90 degree shift from the northward path of Sun-Mon that allows that system to stay west. Hope that I'm misinterpreting it...

:thumbsdown: :thumbsdown:

Climb off the chair, Euro shows some backside snows as the monday low pivots back towards the SW, Also has another low out to sea at the moment 500 miles east of NE, 00z had it out to sea off the Carolinas so there is some positive trends there, Looks to be quite cold as well so thats a positive.....

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red

red

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Flood watches up already for Sunday into Monday .... :thumbsdown:

"A POWERFUL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION WILL BRING RAINFALL POTENTIALLY IN EXCESS OF 3 INCHES TO THE WATCH AREA. THIS RAINFALL... TEMPERATURES OVER 40 DEGREES AND SIGNIFICANT SNOW MELT ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY"

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tamarack

tamarack

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Flood watches up already for Sunday into Monday .... :thumbsdown:

"A POWERFUL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION WILL BRING RAINFALL POTENTIALLY IN EXCESS OF 3 INCHES TO THE WATCH AREA. THIS RAINFALL... TEMPERATURES OVER 40 DEGREES AND SIGNIFICANT SNOW MELT ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY"

Not an issue for GYX CWA, except maybe above 1,500', and even there it's probably under 6".

Dryslot:

I'm only looking at one model, hence the tunnel vision. Glad to see the others being a bit more optimistic.

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MaineJayhawk

MaineJayhawk

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Flood watches up already for Sunday into Monday .... :thumbsdown:

"A POWERFUL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION WILL BRING RAINFALL POTENTIALLY IN EXCESS OF 3 INCHES TO THE WATCH AREA. THIS RAINFALL... TEMPERATURES OVER 40 DEGREES AND SIGNIFICANT SNOW MELT ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY"

Normally if you had said we'd jackpot with a storm in December I'd be doing naked cartwheels in the highways of N Waterboro and expect 12-18" of snow instead of 3" of rain. Booooo! :thumbsdown: At least there's no snow here to melt away.

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powderfreak

powderfreak

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-SN with around 1/4" of accumulation since it started 1-2 hours ago here on the Mountain Road. Was just up near the ski area and they seemed to have more like a 1/2"-3/4" already. Roads were solidly covered up there and cars had a solid coating on them. Down here a few miles, there's still a nice little coating but you can see the yellow center-lines on the road still so can't call it "snow covered." Had to run to Maplefield's down at the blinking red light, and there's even less snow down in the village (not measurable yet)... there's a very obvious snow gradient between the center of town and the ski area, and as usual I fall right in the middle.

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powderfreak

powderfreak

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Ahh well Sunday and Sunday night look like a lost cause, but I do like the NW flow snow shower pattern that sets up afterward. Always a big signal for possible accumulation to see "likely" POPs so far out in advance as BTV calling for likely snow showers Tuesday and Wednesday Night already.

Nice to see sustained chances of snow showers again, that's a nice pattern.

Sunday: A chance of snow and sleet before 1pm, then rain. High near 38. Wind chill values as low as -1. Windy, with a south wind 16 to 19 mph increasing to between 27 and 30 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New precipitation amounts between a tenth and quarter of an inch possible.

Sunday Night: Rain and snow, becoming all snow after 2am. Low around 24. Windy, with a south wind 30 to 33 mph decreasing to between 15 and 18 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New precipitation amounts between a quarter and half of an inch possible.

Monday: Snow showers likely, mainly before 1pm. Cloudy, with a high near 29. Chance of precipitation is 60%.

Monday Night: A chance of snow showers. Cloudy, with a low around 13. Chance of precipitation is 50%.

Tuesday: Snow showers likely. Cloudy, with a high near 14. Chance of precipitation is 60%.

Tuesday Night: A chance of snow showers. Cloudy, with a low around 11. Chance of precipitation is 40%.

Wednesday: A chance of snow showers. Cloudy, with a high near 14. Chance of precipitation is 50%.

Wednesday Night: Snow showers likely. Cloudy, with a low around 8. Chance of precipitation is 60%.

Thursday: A chance of snow showers. Cloudy, with a high near 22. Chance of precipitation is 50%.

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powderfreak

powderfreak

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No dendrites here...just tiny, partially sublimated plates and needles. Crappy accumulators.

That's what have been seeing up until about 5 minutes ago... now beautiful, huge, dendrites and coming down at a decent clip. There was a definite increase in snow rate (and visibility) when the flake switch occurred.

I bet if we lighten up we go back to the tiny dust type stuff.

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dendrite

dendrite

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That's what have been seeing up until about 5 minutes ago... now beautiful, huge, dendrites and coming down at a decent clip. There was a definite increase in snow rate (and visibility) when the flake switch occurred.

I bet if we lighten up we go back to the tiny dust type stuff.

Getting better snow growth now with this next batch. If this keeps up I may actually get my first measurable of the year.
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