adk Posted December 8, 2010 Share Posted December 8, 2010 http://www.famousinternetskiers.com/coming-soon-vtah-part-5/ Mansfield was deep all over! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxeyeNH Posted December 8, 2010 Share Posted December 8, 2010 Time to look forward. Intense storm to move through NNE late weekend. Track is so critical. GFS has been trending slightly east. At this point looks like a nice snowstorm possible blizzard conditions in E NY, N VT. NH will have snow to mix to rain and back to snow. More rain as we move east. Its 5 days away so track subject to shifts but the stakes are high with a 970 something low! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ak22 Posted December 8, 2010 Share Posted December 8, 2010 Powderfreak, nice shot. I had a great weekend in Stowe last year - really nice mountain. Any posters near the Mount Snow area? I'm doing a house up there this winter and will be up from the 23rd through the 1st. We went up last weekend, but went hiking instead of skiing - wasn't worth it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 8, 2010 Share Posted December 8, 2010 Time to look forward. Intense storm to move through NNE late weekend. Track is so critical. GFS has been trending slightly east. At this point looks like a nice snowstorm possible blizzard conditions in E NY, N VT. NH will have snow to mix to rain and back to snow. More rain as we move east. Its 5 days away so track subject to shifts but the stakes are high with a 970 something low! Looks like the 12z ukie has it as a coastal hugger as it has shifted SE again, I had mentioned yesterday that this was what i thought the end solution would be, At least it would help the western areas out with less rain and a mix to rain here instead of all rain..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted December 8, 2010 Share Posted December 8, 2010 Take it for what its worth, but the 18z dgex is depicting a crushing snowstorm for the northern Greens from Sunday night into Monday night of next week...beginning as a slushy water-laden snow with temps near 32F, then transitioning into a wind-whipped powder storm with temps plunging to 0F and below. The temp gradient is about as extreme as I've ever seen with 10s in VT and 50s in eastern NH at the same time late Monday. IF this were to verify, I would imagine the northern Greens would likely have their deepest December snowpack since 2003 by the middle of next week: Maybe we can get a repeat of the 1969 post-Christmas bomb, though we'll never get that event's big front-end dump. The SW 1/3 of Maine got 10-20" snow followed by 4-7" rain, big ice in the CT Valley, big snow in VT - BTV 30", beaten only by last Jan's surprise. Snowfall reports from CAR office include 24" at Kokadjo, which I find a bit suspicious because Greenville got 7", only 15 miles SW at similar elev. The 20" at Chesuncook and 17.5" at Chamberlain Bridge are 2nd and 3rd highest, and I'd put more trust in those. Odd area of heavy snow from an odd storm - the 10"+ area extends from inland Wash Cty NW to Daaquam/St. Pamphile on the PQ border. NE of there had major p-type issues; SW had much lower QPF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kulaginman Posted December 8, 2010 Share Posted December 8, 2010 Looks like the 12z gfs has come east a hair...still brings h85 temps above 0C in the northern Greens late Sunday into Sunday night, but I'm wondering if the region would be dry-slotted at the time. Then h85 temps crash as the surface low passes Monday morning, which might allow for a several hour period of heavy CCB snow followed by the usual post-storm upslope. The "sweet spot" is definitely still in New York, but the Greens could probably pull off a fairly significant event even with a mid-storm changeover. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lava Rock Posted December 8, 2010 Share Posted December 8, 2010 ...and Maine goes down as a gully washer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 8, 2010 Share Posted December 8, 2010 ...and Maine goes down as a gully washer 3" rain in standish...... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted December 8, 2010 Share Posted December 8, 2010 3" rain in standish...... [silver lining]At least there's no snowpack to kill off[/silver lining] Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 8, 2010 Share Posted December 8, 2010 Looks like the 12z gfs has come east a hair...still brings h85 temps above 0C in the northern Greens late Sunday into Sunday night, but I'm wondering if the region would be dry-slotted at the time. Then h85 temps crash as the surface low passes Monday morning, which might allow for a several hour period of heavy CCB snow followed by the usual post-storm upslope. The "sweet spot" is definitely still in New York, but the Greens could probably pull off a fairly significant event even with a mid-storm changeover. What I can envision happening is this sort of scenario of snow/mix (hopefully no rain, but honestly, the snowpack could use some substance) back to snow... and although folks in NY could pull decent synoptic snows, I've seen several of these types of storms where we actually end up being the "sweet spot" because of the upslope that follows. Everyone will get the same general synoptic snowfall, with upstate NY doing the best, but then over the course of 2 days after the storm the upslope regions will catch up and surpass the others. These are the types of storms where J.Spin is posting his 12 hour snow accumulations for a day or two after the synoptic storm leaves. I honestly haven't looked that hard at the next storm because IT IS STILL SNOWING at a decent clip. Picked up another 1-2" this morning at 1,500ft. There is a ridiculous amount of fluff in the woods on Mansfield. There are areas that are a legit chest deep in the woods...its pure fluff so you can't ski the woods as you'll likely break a femur on a downed tree, but fun to wallow around in. Also we have a 6-7 foot drift on the front of Mtn Operations building. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
adk Posted December 8, 2010 Share Posted December 8, 2010 What I can envision happening is this sort of scenario of snow/mix (hopefully no rain, but honestly, the snowpack could use some substance) back to snow... and although folks in NY could pull decent synoptic snows, I've seen several of these types of storms where we actually end up being the "sweet spot" because of the upslope that follows. Everyone will get the same general synoptic snowfall, with upstate NY doing the best, but then over the course of 2 days after the storm the upslope regions will catch up and surpass the others. These are the types of storms where J.Spin is posting his 12 hour snow accumulations for a day or two after the synoptic storm leaves. I honestly haven't looked that hard at the next storm because IT IS STILL SNOWING at a decent clip. Picked up another 1-2" this morning at 1,500ft. There is a ridiculous amount of fluff in the woods on Mansfield. There are areas that are a legit chest deep in the woods...its pure fluff so you can't ski the woods as you'll likely break a femur on a downed tree, but fun to wallow around in. Also we have a 6-7 foot drift on the front of Mtn Operations building. The forecast track realyl favors the adk. As for the wrap around - its not really wrap around so much as another lingering moist upper level low and broad cyclonic flow hanging around int he wake of the system that could hammer the greens tues-friday of next week. Well that and some more retrograding goodness. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 8, 2010 Share Posted December 8, 2010 [silver lining]At least there's no snowpack to kill off[/silver lining] We are going to need a lot of prayers up here, Maybe the rev can come up and do a sermon....... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted December 8, 2010 Share Posted December 8, 2010 We are going to need a lot of prayers up here, Maybe the rev can come up and do a sermon....... I've almost abandoned all hope, though there is that small percentage of You Never Know hanging on. I'm thinking this trend east will either slow or maybe even correct back to the west a touch as the models zero in on the solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
red Posted December 8, 2010 Share Posted December 8, 2010 I've almost abandoned all hope, though there is that small percentage of You Never Know hanging on. I'm thinking this trend east will either slow or maybe even correct back to the west a touch as the models zero in on the solution. I agree. I'm right there with you on the rain train. Could get a little messy around here with 7 inches of snow on the ground though. Not looking forward to the slop. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kulaginman Posted December 8, 2010 Share Posted December 8, 2010 The euro continues to be on the western fringe of the guidance envelope, but we are starting to edge into the timeframe when it is statistically dominant (inside of 4.5 days). I'll give it until tonight's 00z run, but I wouldn't be shocked if other guidance begins trending west again. There's little question that it's going to rain in NH/ME, in my opinion...but VT (especially western VT) is the real question mark. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted December 8, 2010 Share Posted December 8, 2010 I'm giving it until 00z Saturday until I salt the snail. Prolong the agony, if you will. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 8, 2010 Share Posted December 8, 2010 The euro continues to be on the western fringe of the guidance envelope, but we are starting to edge into the timeframe when it is statistically dominant (inside of 4.5 days). I'll give it until tonight's 00z run, but I wouldn't be shocked if other guidance begins trending west again. There's little question that it's going to rain in NH/ME, in my opinion...but VT (especially western VT) is the real question mark. Read under my avatar..........lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J.Spin Posted December 8, 2010 Share Posted December 8, 2010 BTV put together some three day totals for this event with a map, so I figured I would pass it along to the NNE forum. Thanks to BTV for putting this together. Largest accumulation I’ve seen in there is the North Underhill one at 32.1 inches. It actually would have been neat if they could have added a couple more gradations of color for those areas up near 30 inches so that those areas could be isolated visually, but I think they were running out of room on the scale bar. For our location on the Waterbury/Bolton line (Chittenden County/Washington County Line), the 3-day total was 20.2 inches based on my CoCoRaHS numbers, and in the map you can really see how that mauve? (I’m going to go with mauve for now) color for 20+ inches bleeds through the spine in the Winooski Valley corridor and just noses into Washington County. It’s been a cool (and I’d argue somewhat classic) event, and actually still going as Powderfreak mentioned. From here in Burlington the wall of white along the Greens is clearly visible, so I’ll see if there has been any accumulation at the house this evening. PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT SPOTTER REPORTS NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT 1010 AM EST WED DEC 8 2010 THE FOLLOWING ARE UNOFFICIAL 3 DAY TOTAL SNOWFALL REPORTS FOR THE STORM THAT AFFECTED OUR REGION. APPRECIATION IS EXTENDED TO HIGHWAY DEPARTMENTS...COOPERATIVE OBSERVERS...SKYWARN SPOTTERS AND MEDIA FOR THESE REPORTS. THIS SUMMARY IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON OUR HOME PAGE AT WEATHER.GOV/BURLINGTON ********************STORM TOTAL SNOWFALL******************** LOCATION STORM TOTAL TIME/DATE COMMENTS SNOWFALL OF (INCHES) MEASUREMENT NEW YORK ...CLINTON COUNTY... LYON MOUNTAIN 12.0 930 AM 12/7 POST OFFICE PERU T 754 AM 12/7 COCORAHS PLATTSBURGH T 756 AM 12/7 SPOTTER SCHUYLER FALLS T 756 AM 12/7 SPOTTER ...ESSEX COUNTY... LAKE PLACID 20.3 800 AM 12/8 COCORAHS NEWCOMB 7.2 700 AM 12/8 COOP ...FRANKLIN COUNTY... MALONE 13.5 700 AM 12/8 COOP CHATEAUGAY 8.0 930 AM 12/7 POST OFFICE WHIPPLEVILLE 8.0 728 AM 12/7 COOP DUANE 6.0 749 AM 12/7 SPOTTER FORT COVINGTON 1.5 930 AM 12/7 POST OFFICE ...ST. LAWRENCE COUNTY... HANNAWA FALLS 14.5 700 AM 12/8 COCORAHS GOUVERNEUR 3 NW 7.0 700 AM 12/7 COOP EDWARDS 6.0 700 AM 12/8 COCORAHS EDWARDS 5.5 756 AM 12/7 SPOTTER NORFOLK 5.0 753 AM 12/7 SPOTTER VERMONT ...ADDISON COUNTY... JERUSALEM 17.0 928 AM 12/7 SPOTTER SOUTH LINCOLN 14.0 700 AM 12/8 COOP LINCOLN 11.8 715 AM 12/8 COCORAHS WEST ADDISON 2.0 907 AM 12/7 SPOTTER BRIDPORT 1.0 705 AM 12/7 SPOTTER ...CALEDONIA COUNTY... WALDEN 9.2 700 AM 12/8 COOP SUTTON 8.8 700 AM 12/8 COOP SHEFFIELD 5.9 715 AM 12/8 COCORAHS SUTTON 2 NE 5.3 700 AM 12/8 COOP GROTON 3.9 600 AM 12/8 COCORAHS ...CHITTENDEN COUNTY... NORTH UNDERHILL 32.1 700 AM 12/8 NWS EMPLOYEE NASHVILLE 1 E 29.2 645 AM 12/8 NWS EMPLOYEE HUNTINGTON 23.7 700 AM 12/8 COCORAHS HANKSVILLE 22.1 700 AM 12/8 COOP RICHMOND 22.0 1002 AM 12/8 COCORAHS WESTFORD 14.0 800 AM 12/7 NWS EMPLOYEE MILTON 11.0 728 AM 12/7 SPOTTER ESSEX JUNCTION 10.0 800 AM 12/7 SPOTTER ESSEX JUNCTION 1 N 7.8 800 AM 12/7 COOP SOUTH BURLINGTON 5.7 700 AM 12/8 ASOS SOUTH BURLINGTON 2.0 757 AM 12/7 NWS EMPLOYEE CHARLOTTE 1.8 730 AM 12/7 COCORAHS COLCHESTER 0.5 800 AM 12/7 NWS EMPLOYEE ...ESSEX COUNTY... ISLAND POND 7.7 800 AM 12/8 COOP ...FRANKLIN COUNTY... FLETCHER 27.0 853 AM 12/7 PUBLIC SHELDON SPRINGS 20.0 757 AM 12/7 SPOTTER HIGHGATE 11.1 850 AM 12/7 SPOTTER SWANTON 4.0 849 AM 12/7 SPOTTER ...LAMOILLE COUNTY... CAMBRIDGE 27.0 951 AM 12/8 FAA EMPLOYEE EDEN 2 S 22.5 700 AM 12/8 COOP JEFFERSONVILLE 22.0 842 AM 12/8 SPOTTER EDEN 16.0 839 AM 12/7 MEDIA HYDE PARK 15.0 840 AM 12/7 MEDIA HYDE PARK 14.8 630 AM 12/8 COCORAHS PLEASANT VALLEY 14.5 1201 AM 12/7 SPOTTER STOWE 13.7 730 AM 12/8 COCORAHS MOUNT MANSFIELD 13.5 400 PM 12/7 COOP ...ORANGE COUNTY... CORINTH 2.5 700 AM 12/8 COOP BROOKFIELD 2 WSW 1.0 700 AM 12/8 COOP CHELSEA 2 NW 0.7 700 AM 12/8 COOP UNION VILLAGE DAM 0.3 700 AM 12/8 COOP ...ORLEANS COUNTY... JAY PEAK 27.0 700 AM 12/8 COOP WESTFIELD 26.5 700 AM 12/8 COCORAHS MORGAN 10.1 800 AM 12/8 COCORAHS CRAFTSBURY COMMON 9.6 800 AM 12/8 COCORAHS BARTON 6.0 700 AM 12/8 COCORAHS NEWPORT 5.8 1003 AM 12/8 COCORAHS IRASBURG 4.1 700 AM 12/8 COOP NEWPORT 2.8 700 AM 12/8 COOP ...RUTLAND COUNTY... DANBY FOUR CORNERS 4.5 700 AM 12/8 COOP RUTLAND 3.2 700 AM 12/8 COOP ...WASHINGTON COUNTY... WATERBURY 20.2 600 AM 12/8 COCORAHS WATERBURY CENTER 15.3 630 AM 12/8 COCORAHS CABOT 13.2 1003 AM 12/8 COCORAHS WATERBURY CENTER 12.6 700 AM 12/8 COCORAHS WORCESTER 2 W 6.1 700 AM 12/8 COOP EAST CALAIS 4.1 600 AM 12/8 COCORAHS MARSHFIELD 3.7 545 AM 12/8 COCORAHS WAITSFIELD 3.2 700 AM 12/8 COCORAHS WAITSFIELD 2 W 3.2 700 AM 12/8 COOP EAST CALAIS 2.0 812 AM 12/8 SPOTTER PLAINFIELD 1.3 700 AM 12/8 COOP NORTHFIELD T 700 AM 12/8 COOP ...WINDSOR COUNTY... NORTH POMFRET 2.2 700 AM 12/8 COCORAHS ROCHESTER 1.5 700 AM 12/8 COOP BETHEL 4 N T 700 AM 12/8 COOP CAVENDISH T 700 AM 12/8 COOP $$ LAHIFF Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 8, 2010 Share Posted December 8, 2010 BTV put together some three day totals for this event with a map, so I figured I would pass it along to the NNE forum. Nice post, J.Spin. Still flurrying though intensity has diminished significantly this afternoon. We had a good burst around noontime and steady light snows besides that. Looks like the mountain picked up another 1-2" during the day today. It looks like they've got Stowe down for just over 13" for this storm. That's about the amount of snow I have on the ground right now (roughly a foot) on the Mountain Road so I'm not sure if that's adding up different periods of time or what. If I add up all the 12 hour periods starting with the 3.5" on Saturday night, I get 18.5" of snow for the event. I have noticed a very fast decrease in snow though as one heads towards the center of town and then out of town towards the Morrisville-Stowe airport. I had to run an errand out that way this afternoon and it looked like there was more like 6-8" on the ground out towards MVL. Definitely a strong gradient as you head east and west of the spine. Also, that 10" from the Mansfield co-op is very interesting see as the snow depth increased by 19" in yesterday's 24 hour period. Quite a classic upslope event and one that I think we will remember as an example of what upslope flow can do with a stalled low to our north. Also, with the January storm last year and this past storm, its safe to say that retrograding lows to our north treat us very well. I'll post some pics from town later. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted December 8, 2010 Share Posted December 8, 2010 Well that and some more retrograding goodness. That's pretty much an oxymoron, IMO, at least for MBY. Maybe this winter will be much different from last year's pattern in much of NNE. 09-10: out to sea out to sea inland runner - rain out to sea (repeat) 10-11?: cold air inland runner - rain cold air (repeat) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 8, 2010 Share Posted December 8, 2010 I'm going to post some pictures here, and some in the Winter Photo Thread to document this event... This was this morning... days and days of fluffy snow falling from the sky. Clean off the car, dig out, rinse and repeat. Mushroom caps on the rocks in the river that follows the Mountain Road. Driving around town taking pictures out the car window... winter's here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 8, 2010 Share Posted December 8, 2010 Sucks most of that will be washed away by Monday...though looks like more on the way after that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 8, 2010 Share Posted December 8, 2010 Sucks most of that will be washed away by Monday...though looks like more on the way after that Yeah I still think though we could pick up some on the front end, then mix and rain (but east of the mountains this area doesn't usually "torch" by any means, and we'll be closer to the cold here), followed by some more upslope/wrap around snow. I have hope that we won't lose the snow cover and might even be able to come away with a net gain if it all breaks right. But the postcard picturesque nature of this snow will definitely disappear... maybe we can get a couple more inches with the clipper, too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
skierinvermont Posted December 8, 2010 Share Posted December 8, 2010 I still have hope that the mountains will be at least 50% frozen between some front end and wrap around/upslope. The 12z Euro would be a disaster, but I would take the 00z Euro in a heartbeat. If it's mostly rain, especially a warmer rain that would be bad, but like powderfreak said, 50% frozen 50% cold rain isn't that bad because it would be a net positive in terms of the liquid content of the snowpack which should lay down a good base for our epic late december Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 8, 2010 Share Posted December 8, 2010 One more from this afternoon when the sun briefly made an appearance for the first time in 5 days... Since then we are back to clouds and passing snow showers. Upslope flow will not quit easily. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 8, 2010 Share Posted December 8, 2010 Here's a shot from Jay's website... this is Montgomery Center, VT (relatively low elevation spot compared to Jay). Upslope delivers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted December 8, 2010 Share Posted December 8, 2010 Some amazing pics there, guys. Tons of jealousy at this end. lol Anyway, just noted that it's already down to 18.6F. Sure to be our coldest night of the young season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 8, 2010 Share Posted December 8, 2010 Some amazing pics there, guys. Tons of jealousy at this end. lol Anyway, just noted that it's already down to 18.6F. Sure to be our coldest night of the young season. Yup 19.6F here......... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
klw Posted December 9, 2010 Share Posted December 9, 2010 Does anyone else have spacing issues on some of these pages with blue spaces between posts and overlapping post? they seem to corect eventually but are an issue if there are pictures with posts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lava Rock Posted December 9, 2010 Share Posted December 9, 2010 I'm gonna chalk up sun/mon event as "it's still early". yeah, we'll see how long that attitude lasts in a way, if it's gonna rain, I don't care as much since there's only a 1/2" or so to wash away. I'd be more upset if I were in northern VT with all their snow, slowly seeing it dwindle in the monsoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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