NNE slowly approaching winter

[kulaginman]

A few Ensemble members at 12z has shifted the track east, I guess the 12z is well east of the 00z, Will wait on the euro, Thats the model that really needs to come east if we are going to have a chance at mostly frozen.....

I've got a stake in northern VT's weather these days (skiing Jay Peak from the 17th-19th)...and 8 out of the 12 gfs ensemble members seem to indicate an all-frozen scenario for next SUN/MON. That's not to say there won't be a period of sleet due to some warming above h85...but on the very latest run, the majority of ensemble members keep any fzra/ra south of the northern Greens.

[dryslot]

I've got a stake in northern VT's weather these days (skiing Jay Peak from the 17th-19th)...and 8 out of the 12 gfs ensemble members seem to indicate an all-frozen scenario for next SUN/MON. That's not to say there won't be a period of sleet due to some warming above h85...but on the very latest run, the majority of ensemble members keep any fzra/ra south of the northern Greens.

Not much help on the Ops today, But we are still outside there time frame for the most part, Hopefully the ensembles keep hitting an eastern shift......

[J.Spin]

We are measuring in feet now. Some big totals coming out of the northern Greens this morning.

Skiing is ridiculous, heading back out now. Billowing, blower powder that's boot to knee deep, with spots of thigh deep.

PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER REPORTS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
851 AM EST TUE DEC 7 2010

THE FOLLOWING ARE UNOFFICIAL OBSERVATIONS TAKEN DURING THE PAST 6
HOURS FOR THE STORM THAT HAS BEEN AFFECTING OUR REGION. APPRECIATION
IS EXTENDED TO HIGHWAY DEPARTMENTS...COOPERATIVE OBSERVERS...SKYWARN
SPOTTERS AND MEDIA FOR THESE REPORTS.  THIS SUMMARY IS ALSO
AVAILABLE ON OUR HOME PAGE AT WEATHER.GOV/BURLINGTON

********************STORM TOTAL SNOWFALL********************

LOCATION          STORM TOTAL    TIME/DATE    COMMENTS
                    SNOWFALL       OF
                    (INCHES)   MEASUREMENT

...WASHINGTON COUNTY...
  WATERBURY             12.7   600 AM  12/7 COCORAHS

Thanks for the update list Scott, that’s our 12.7 inches from the house for the 6 AM 12/6 to 6 AM 12/7 24-hour period. It’s a nice slug of snow, but wow did some of those west slope communities get hammered based on their 24-hour totals, easily two feet by now based on the numbers from this morning.

We had picked up a couple more inches of snow before I left Waterbury around 11:00 A.M. this morning, so the storm total for our location is somewhere around 20 inches since the Friday/Saturday timeframe. I’ll update with a measurement later today. Here in Burlington, blue sky has been appearing, and for precipitation it’s been flurries at most. I was surprised to see that here on the UVM campus, the snow accumulation is essentially the same couple of inches I saw when I left yesterday, so they must not have picked up much beyond what I saw late yesterday afternoon. Talking to colleagues here, the accumulations just go upward as you head east in the Champlain Valley.

[J.Spin]

I've got a stake in northern VT's weather these days (skiing Jay Peak from the 17th-19th)...and 8 out of the 12 gfs ensemble members seem to indicate an all-frozen scenario for next SUN/MON. That's not to say there won't be a period of sleet due to some warming above h85...but on the very latest run, the majority of ensemble members keep any fzra/ra south of the northern Greens.

Thanks for the update kulaginman, it would be nice if all the recent snow could be kept in decent shape for all the folks that are coming up to ski in the next few weeks. Much of the snow from this event was so fluffy that something a little more dense like sleet wouldn't be the worst thing to see, although dense snow would probably be the best. Since this snow was so fluffy, I'm not sure where it puts us in terms of off piste skiing, but hopefully Powderfreak can give an update with regard to Stowe.

[kulaginman]

Thanks for the update kulaginman, it would be nice if all the recent snow could be kept in decent shape for all the folks that are coming up to ski in the next few weeks. Much of the snow from this event was so fluffy that something a little more dense like sleet wouldn't be the worst thing to see, although dense snow would probably be the best. Since this snow was so fluffy, I'm not sure where it puts us in terms of off piste skiing, but hopefully Powderfreak can give an update with regard to Stowe.

That's what I've been wondering...it doesn't really sound like it would be ideal base-building snow. If we could lay down a foot of dense synoptic snow, you guys would probably be set for the season....barring some kind of obscene mid-winter blowtorch.

Put me down for 12" of synoptic snow next SUN/MON followed by another 12-24"+ upslope fluff event as the storm occludes/fills in southeast Canada

On a serious note, I love the in-depth reporting that goes on in this thread. I've been lurking here for a few weeks now, and the amount of detail that goes into the observations here is fantastic!! Keep it up, guys.

[borderwx]

Still snow globe like outside 10 miles eat of the range. Hard to say with heavy winds but looks like 6-8 total at 1080'. Still going strong at J today, echo scott's findings on the hill, if you follow the wind loads it was deep enough and fluffy enough to choke on - hero snow for sure. Unfortunately you could have 9' of this fluff and it would be useless unless it was wind hammered into styrofoam- no support. off piste low/mod angle grass still your best bet IMO. add a little white cement though...

[powderfreak]

Thanks for the update kulaginman, it would be nice if all the recent snow could be kept in decent shape for all the folks that are coming up to ski in the next few weeks. Much of the snow from this event was so fluffy that something a little more dense like sleet wouldn't be the worst thing to see, although dense snow would probably be the best. Since this snow was so fluffy, I'm not sure where it puts us in terms of off piste skiing, but hopefully Powderfreak can give an update with regard to Stowe.

Follow the drifts... ungroomed, non-snowmaking trails have snow depths varying from bare ground to 4 feet. People have been snorkeling today and then being on bare rocks 10 turns later. Trees are definitely not an option unless you want to break your femur.

Snow is very, very deep... but very, very light and fluffy. This is not base building stuff. This is snow that gives you face shots and over the shoulder shots while you are hitting bottom the whole way.

Fun but definitely use your rock skis if you venture off the beaten path.

It is still snowing here in Stowe village, looks like we got 2" or so during the day. Storm total (adding 12 hr measurements up since Saturday) is around 20" but only 12-14" on the ground due to settling.

Up at the mountain today, we got 2-4" additional on top of the 12-16" reported this morning. Now up to 28" at the summit since Saturday. I wandered around at 2pm today in the woods and found a general 14-20" of new snow on top of the old small crusty layer.

[mreaves]

This event is almost exactly like the January event that gave BTV 33", only displaced a bit further north and east. Just like January, I can see the snow falling in the mountains 20 miles away, while I have a total of about 3". These retro storms just don't set up well for this location. Hopefully we don't remain a snow hole for the entire winter.

[gravitywave]

Not much help on the Ops today, But we are still outside there time frame for the most part, Hopefully the ensembles keep hitting an eastern shift......

aw come on. 12z ukie showed a 980mb bomb inside the benchmark. weenie camp still has model support!!

truthfully the HPC disco today was pretty helpful too. part of it was posted in the main 12z model thread, but basically the models are still all over the place with this one.

BTV has us progged for a squall line tomorrow sometime around 7am. should be interesting.

[powderfreak]

Every time I think its going to stop, it seems to burst back in intensity. Snowing more steadily again after we tapered to high-vis light snow.

[powderfreak]

Looks like a 19" increase in snow at the Mansfield stake today, up 26" since last week... despite another questionable "new" reading. Also looks like 1.19" of liquid equivalent on the mountain in the last 2 days and that makes sense with the high ratio snow this storm is serving up. Also, almost no change in temperatures in the last 48 hours.

DAILY HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL DATA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
626 PM EST MON DEC 6 2010

STATION            PRECIP   TEMPERATURE   PRESENT 		SNOW
      			24 HRS   MAX MIN CUR   WEATHER 	NEW TOTAL SWE
...VERMONT...
MOUNT MANSFIELD 	0.24 	9   6   6                3.5  13

DAILY HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL DATA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
611 PM EST TUE DEC 7 2010

STATION            PRECIP   TEMPERATURE   PRESENT 		SNOW
      			24 HRS   MAX MIN CUR   WEATHER 	NEW TOTAL SWE
...VERMONT...
MOUNT MANSFIELD 	0.95 	8   6   6   LIGHT FOG   10.0  32

[kulaginman]

Take it for what its worth, but the 18z dgex is depicting a crushing snowstorm for the northern Greens from Sunday night into Monday night of next week...beginning as a slushy water-laden snow with temps near 32F, then transitioning into a wind-whipped powder storm with temps plunging to 0F and below. The temp gradient is about as extreme as I've ever seen with 10s in VT and 50s in eastern NH at the same time late Monday. IF this were to verify, I would imagine the northern Greens would likely have their deepest December snowpack since 2003 by the middle of next week:

http://www.meteo.psu...z/dgexloop.html

[powderfreak]

Some pics from the mountain today... didn't take the camera out till late in the day:

Two shots of drifting along the trail at 2,000-2,700ft elevations...

Deep fluff.

The lower runouts...

Good storm.

[ono]

you should've seen the difference from southeast of barre to waterbury- it just went off as i hit waterbury around 6:30am, snow was almost instantly more pronounced within a half mile of the off ramp. is there something about waterbury's location with regards to the spine and the worcester range that produces this affect coming up 89? or am i just seeing things?

down to burlington at 2pm, drying quickly after getting on 89. coming back toward waterbury around 5pm on 89- coming down hard again. great event.

[dryslot]

Take it for what its worth, but the 18z dgex is depicting a crushing snowstorm for the northern Greens from Sunday night into Monday night of next week...beginning as a slushy water-laden snow with temps near 32F, then transitioning into a wind-whipped powder storm with temps plunging to 0F and below. The temp gradient is about as extreme as I've ever seen with 10s in VT and 50s in eastern NH at the same time late Monday. IF this were to verify, I would imagine the northern Greens would likely have their deepest December snowpack since 2003 by the middle of next week:

http://www.meteo.psu...z/dgexloop.html

Well i would go out on a limb and say that i doub't i see that track, It would be basically the 1st time i have had a non tropical storm track S to N directly over my head, It either cuts or it going to be a hugger, Right now with some of todays eastward trends and after seeing the op gfs 18z, I would say it looks like we are heading towards a coastal hugger..........

[j24vt]

Another 1.3". Pushes storm total to 13.2". Still seeing light flurries

[skierinvermont]

Damn.. Jay and Stowe are getting more than Sugarbush. 22" Jay 14-28" Stowe, 14" Sugarbush (as of 2pm). Powderfreak, you think there's any chance sugarbush has more than 14" at the summit? I notice sometimes they can be a little more conservative than Jay and Stowe in their measurements (they often seem to measure closer to the base). Of course Jay and Stowe do get a little more on average, but sometimes the difference is larger than one might think. I remember going to Sugarbush one time in a very elevation dependent event (not because it was warm but because it was very upslope dependent). Sugarbush reported 12" which was accurate at around 2,000 feet, but it was definitely more like 18" above 3,000.

[Hitman]

<br style="text-shadow: none;">Damn.. Jay and Stowe are getting more than Sugarbush. 22" Jay 14-28" Stowe, 14" Sugarbush (as of 2pm). Powderfreak, you think there's any chance sugarbush has more than 14" at the summit? I notice sometimes they can be a little more conservative than Jay and Stowe in their measurements (they often seem to measure closer to the base). Of course Jay and Stowe do get a little more on average, but sometimes the difference is larger than one might think. I remember going to Sugarbush one time in a very elevation dependent event (not because it was warm but because it was very upslope dependent). Sugarbush reported 12" which was accurate at around 2,000 feet, but it was definitely more like 18" above 3,000.<br style="text-shadow: none;">

<br style="text-shadow: none;">

I ski sugarbush regularly and they are very conservative in the numbers they report. The difference between what they report and what is actually in the 3-4,000 range can be substantial especially in these type of events. I've seen them report 8" and gotten off the lift into thigh deep powder. They initially reported 6" this morning, changed it to 12" and it looked like more than that on the video I saw. Here it is.

BTW-thanks for all the discussion and obs. much appreciated by one stuck in the flatlands.<br style="text-shadow: none;"><br style="text-shadow: none;">

[skierinvermont]

<br style="text-shadow: none;">

I ski sugarbush regularly and they are very conservative in the numbers they report. The difference between what they report and what is actually in the 3-4,000 range can be substantial especially in these type of events. I've seen them report 8" and gotten off the lift into thigh deep powder. They initially reported 6" this morning, changed it to 12" and it looked like more than that on the video I saw. Here it is.

BTW-thanks for all the discussion and obs. much appreciated by one stuck in the flatlands.<br style="text-shadow: none;"><br style="text-shadow: none;">

I'm glad I am not the only one who has noticed this. Did you see the list of observations from around VT? Some incredible observations from just west of the mountains. Also there is the 16" in Hanksville reported this morning (and I'm sure they got more today) which is very close to Sugarbush. But there was just 3" reported in Waitsfield on the east side of Sugarbush. Good point about the video, that does look like more than 14" although it is always hard to tell.

I just found that MRG was reporting 12-18" as of 10am this morning.. which probably means they had at least 14-20" by 2pm.. which tells me the Sugarbush observation was likely a little more conservative and from lower on the mountain.

[Hitman]

<br style="text-shadow: none;">I'm glad I am not the only one who has noticed this. Did you see the list of observations from around VT? Some incredible observations from just west of the mountains. Also there is the 16" in Hanksville reported this morning (and I'm sure they got more today) which is very close to Sugarbush. But there was just 3" reported in Waitsfield on the east side of Sugarbush. Good point about the video, that does look like more than 14" although it is always hard to tell.<br style="text-shadow: none;"><br style="text-shadow: none;">I just found that MRG was reporting 12-18" as of 10am this morning.. which probably means they had at least 14-20" by 2pm.. which tells me the Sugarbush observation was likely a little more conservative and from lower on the mountain.<br style="text-shadow: none;">

You are not alone.

http://forums.skimrv.com/about2529-0-asc-0.html<br style="text-shadow: none;"><br style="text-shadow: none;"><br style="text-shadow: none;">

[J.Spin]

Event totals: 19.9” Snow/0.65” L.E.

Tuesday 12/7/2010 5:00 P.M. update: I didn’t have a chance to send this in earlier, but here are a few observations from the area today. In Burlington there were patches of blue sky appearing at the end of the day, but the wall of white was visible off to the east in the Greens. It’s always fun to head east into that wall and find out exactly what’s going on out there. In this case, the first stray flakes started to appear around the I-89 rest area in Williston. By exit 11 in Richmond it was steady flurries, and beyond the center of Richmond through to Waterbury the snowfall intensity fluctuated between steady flurries and light snow. I had to head to a meeting in Morrisville tonight, and on the way out around 5:30 P.M. it was consistent light snow all the way. On the way home at around 9:00 P.M., the snow was steady and lightly accumulating south to Stowe, but then tapered off around Waterbury Center. Even at the house the snow was very light at that point, but it has picked up since then. The fluffy snow continues to settle and was down to 10.0 inches at the stake. Details from the 5:00 P.M. update are below:

New Snow: 1.9 inches

New Liquid: 0.04 inches

Snow/Water Ratio: 47.5

Snow Density: 2.1%

Temperature: 23.0 F

Sky: Snow (5-10 mm flakes)

Snow at the stake: 10.0 inches

[powderfreak]

First guess glance out the window shows what looks like another 2" or so on the car overnight. Still snowing lightly in the floodlights.

BTV calling for another 1-3" Champlain Valley and 2-4" west slopes/mtns today.

[adk]

First guess glance out the window shows what looks like another 2" or so on the car overnight. Still snowing lightly in the floodlights.

BTV calling for another 1-3" Champlain Valley and 2-4" west slopes/mtns today.

Should put manny over 3 feet for this event along high west facing slopes.

[powderfreak]

Should put manny over 3 feet for this event along high west facing slopes.

This is like the energizer bunny of snowstorms. Still snowing and blowing up at the mountain. Now we are getting hit with some sort of streamer band across Chittenden County and into the mountain. Still incredibly high ratio snow.

Groomers and snowmakers hint at a potential 6-8" more overnight on the mountain but said its windy so they can't tell for sure. I've played it safe so far and mentioned 2-3" overnight (as that's what we have at the base elevation) but could be increasing that number when I get on the hill in a few.

31" since Saturday.

[powderfreak]

A shot of yours truly yesterday morning... this is called fact checking, haha.

http://www.stowe.com/mountain/photo_gallery.php

[J.Spin]

Event totals: 22.1” Snow/0.74” L.E.

Wednesday 12/8/2010 6:00 A.M. update: While it seemed fairly vigorous while I was in the Morrisville/Stowe area yesterday evening, the snowfall wasn’t too prodigious at our location during that time. In the 5:00 P.M. to 11:00 P.M. period, we’d picked up just 0.3 inches of snow. The accumulation was fairly minor, and the rate of snowfall seemed to be picking up, so I decided not to clear the snowboard and get the full accumulation in the morning. The sky was just flurries with some stars showing through clear areas this morning at 6:00 A.M., but at some point the snowfall had picked up because the board held 2.2 inches of new snow comprised of 0.09 inches of liquid. The underlying snowpack has certainly slowed a bit in its settling now, because the roughly two inches brought the snow depth at our stake from 10.0 inches yesterday evening, to 12.0 inches this morning. Also of note was the fact that this morning was our coldest of the season so far, with the temperature already down to 16.5 F at the time of the report. Details from the 6:00 A.M. update are below:

New Snow: 2.2 inches

New Liquid: 0.09 inches

Snow/Water Ratio: 24.4

Snow Density: 4.1%

Temperature: 16.5 F

Sky: Flurries/Partly Cloudy

Snow at the stake: 12.0 inches

With the season snowfall at 25.5 inches as of this morning, we are at least staring to make up for the rather poor November. The numbers are still almost 14 inches behind where we were in ‘07-‘08 at this point. However, we are now only about 4 inches behind ‘08-‘09 for the same date, and we are well ahead of ’06-’07 and ’09-’10.

[j24vt]

Another 0.8" last night. Still have light flurries falling.

[Mad River]

A shot of yours truly yesterday morning... this is called fact checking, haha.

http://www.stowe.com...oto_gallery.php

Nice shot!!

[Allenson]

This event is almost exactly like the January event that gave BTV 33", only displaced a bit further north and east. Just like January, I can see the snow falling in the mountains 20 miles away, while I have a total of about 3". These retro storms just don't set up well for this location. Hopefully we don't remain a snow hole for the entire winter.

I feel your pain, brother and was thinking the same regarding last year's event and this one.

We picked up 3" over here in Corinth.

[powderfreak]

Event totals: 22.1” Snow/0.74” L.E.

Wednesday 12/8/2010 6:00 A.M. update: While it seemed fairly vigorous while I was in the Morrisville/Stowe area yesterday evening, the snowfall wasn’t too prodigious at our location during that time. In the 5:00 P.M. to 11:00 P.M. period, we’d picked up just 0.3 inches of snow. The accumulation was fairly minor, and the rate of snowfall seemed to be picking up, so I decided not to clear the snowboard and get the full accumulation in the morning. The sky was just flurries with some stars showing through clear areas this morning at 6:00 A.M., but at some point the snowfall had picked up because the board held 2.2 inches of new snow comprised of 0.09 inches of liquid. The underlying snowpack has certainly slowed a bit in its settling now, because the roughly two inches brought the snow depth at our stake from 10.0 inches yesterday evening, to 12.0 inches this morning. Also of note was the fact that this morning was our coldest of the season so far, with the temperature already down to 16.5 F at the time of the report. Details from the 6:00 A.M. update are below:

New Snow: 2.2 inches

New Liquid: 0.09 inches

Snow/Water Ratio: 24.4

Snow Density: 4.1%

Temperature: 16.5 F

Sky: Flurries/Partly Cloudy

Snow at the stake: 12.0 inches

For whatever reason, your observations seem to mirror what I am seeing at my location on the Mountain Road in Stowe. I measured 2" (give or take a couple tenths, I'm not too particular with the tape measurer in the dark at 4:50am) as I left my place and snowpack is pretty much right at 12-13". We maxed out around 14" in the snow depth department yesterday morning when I measured the 8.5" overnight.

Snowpack seems to have settled out a bit so hopefully we can hold right here at a foot or just over as this storm winds down. Not a bad way to start December...village of Stowe looks as picturesque as it gets with lots of fluffy snow clinging to everything.