NNE slowly approaching winter

[Mad River]

Others have had issues similar to yours. Staff is working on it, I guess Dendrite can give you the full skinny. At least there isn't anything to talk about now. (Well, other than the big Thanksgiving storm. lol)

I had the same thing until yesterday. In the morning I first was unable to get anywhere at all, then a page saying the problem was being fixed and 10 minutes later I could access the forum the regular way again. I guess it's a little tricky to start something like this from scratch without a few hickups. Kudos to all of those working hard to keep this forum alive and well.

Now, can we please stop all these pictures of rain from appearing in the point forecasts here in central VT? I am ready to ski, thank you very much.

[powderfreak]

I had the same thing until yesterday. In the morning I first was unable to get anywhere at all, then a page saying the problem was being fixed and 10 minutes later I could access the forum the regular way again. I guess it's a little tricky to start something like this from scratch without a few hickups. Kudos to all of those working hard to keep this forum alive and well.

Now, can we please stop all these pictures of rain from appearing in the point forecasts here in central VT? I am ready to ski, thank you very much.

I've been itching to ski so much that for the past 3 days I've been making laps on Stowe's snowmaking route... you can still get 1,800ft of vertical as of 2pm today but the lower half is quickly becoming fragmented. The upper 1,000 vertical feet is golden though and was awesome spring-like snow today... skied like butter in the sunshine and 40s.

And also, many thanks to the folks working on this website and getting everything up and going when your hand is forced... awesome work.

[powderfreak]

Its not much but given that we haven't had much, if any, snow recently... it is worth mentioning. I've been looking at some model data this evening that seems to suggest a good chance for light snowfall accumulations on Wednesday night and Thursday morning behind the departing low pressure system. The low gets to a favorable position in the Canadian Maritimes for upslope enhanced precipitation for the usual Green Mountain suspects from Jay Peak to Stowe/Mansfield southward to Bolton and Camels Hump. Boundary layer temps will be mild in the lower elevations (low 40s) so not expecting any snow in the majority of populated areas, though places like the Bolton community up at 2,100ft, Jay Peak and Stowe base area communities/hotels/condos at 1,500-1,800ft, as well as a few other sparsely inhabited areas above 1,500ft could have measurable snowfall by Thursday morning.

Good H85 wind flow, cold air advection bringing in more favorable dendrite snow growth in the region of greatest lift (generally near H85 in upslope), and timing being early pre-dawn hours should promote some accumulation.

Here's BTV's weigh-in from this afternoon...

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT

853 PM EST TUE NOV 16 2010

<snip>

LOW-LEVEL CAA CONTINUES DURING THE DAY ON THURSDAY WITH 850MB TEMPS

DROPPING TO -7 TO -8C BY 00Z FRIDAY. THIS SHOULD KEEP TEMPS IN THE

40-44F RANGE IN THE VALLEYS FOR HIGHS...AND ONLY MID-UPR 30S IN THE

1-2 KFT ELEVATIONAL BAND. SHALLOW INSTABILITY AND NW FLOW SHOULD

ALSO KEEP A FEW SNOW SHOWERS GOING IN THE MTNS. OVERALL...COULD SEE

1-3 INCHES OF SNOW SPREAD ACROSS WEDNESDAY NIGHT THRU THURSDAY AT

ELEVATIONS MAINLY ABOVE 1500-2000 FT IN NRN NY AND VT. WITH

CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT...MOISTURE FROM THE ERN GREAT LAKES SHOULD BE

SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATION ALONG FAVORED MTN

SLOPES.

<snip>

[klw]

Yeah found this place, now I keep you updated on Peacham rainfall with my highly scientific evaluations of the water level in the backyard kiddie pool.

[mreaves]

Yeah found this place, now I keep you updated on Peacham rainfall with my highly scientific evaluations of the water level in the backyard kiddie pool.

Glad to see you found us. Hopefully Allenson finds us too. There aren't many of us up here so we need all the obs we can get.

[ENYsnow]

Its not much but given that we haven't had much, if any, snow recently... it is worth mentioning. I've been looking at some model data this evening that seems to suggest a good chance for light snowfall accumulations on Wednesday night and Thursday morning behind the departing low pressure system. The low gets to a favorable position in the Canadian Maritimes for upslope enhanced precipitation for the usual Green Mountain suspects from Jay Peak to Stowe/Mansfield southward to Bolton and Camels Hump. Boundary layer temps will be mild in the lower elevations (low 40s) so not expecting any snow in the majority of populated areas, though places like the Bolton community up at 2,100ft, Jay Peak and Stowe base area communities/hotels/condos at 1,500-1,800ft, as well as a few other sparsely inhabited areas above 1,500ft could have measurable snowfall by Thursday morning.

Good H85 wind flow, cold air advection bringing in more favorable dendrite snow growth in the region of greatest lift (generally near H85 in upslope), and timing being early pre-dawn hours should promote some accumulation.

Here's BTV's weigh-in from this afternoon...

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT

853 PM EST TUE NOV 16 2010

<snip>

LOW-LEVEL CAA CONTINUES DURING THE DAY ON THURSDAY WITH 850MB TEMPS

DROPPING TO -7 TO -8C BY 00Z FRIDAY. THIS SHOULD KEEP TEMPS IN THE

40-44F RANGE IN THE VALLEYS FOR HIGHS...AND ONLY MID-UPR 30S IN THE

1-2 KFT ELEVATIONAL BAND. SHALLOW INSTABILITY AND NW FLOW SHOULD

ALSO KEEP A FEW SNOW SHOWERS GOING IN THE MTNS. OVERALL...COULD SEE

1-3 INCHES OF SNOW SPREAD ACROSS WEDNESDAY NIGHT THRU THURSDAY AT

ELEVATIONS MAINLY ABOVE 1500-2000 FT IN NRN NY AND VT. WITH

CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT...MOISTURE FROM THE ERN GREAT LAKES SHOULD BE

SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATION ALONG FAVORED MTN

SLOPES.

<snip>

I noticed that earlier today and was suprised there wasn't a mention for southern VT in Albanys AFD. It definitely looks like there will be a period of good upslope flow with 850 temperatures several degrees below 0 and at elevations > 2000 ft surface temps shouldnt be a problem.

[MaineJayhawk]

Rainy and blustery on the drive to PWM this morning. +RA and gusts to 35, loads of fun.

0.89" for the event in PWM with steady rain falling. 50F

[VtWeatherWatcher]

.56" of rain overnight, highest gust was only 12mph.

[wxeyeNH]

1.31" total here in Central NH

[tamarack]

RA didn't start IMBY until 5:30 AM, and was light - 0.12" by 7. However, it became moderate once I reached AUG and has been mostly moderate (a couple short heavier bursts)since, about 1" so far. Radar points to the steady moderate stuff ending here shortly after noon. Winds are moderate, though they've been effective. The two red oaks planted (about 22 yr ago - they're now +/- 18" dia and 45' tall) had tenaciously retained about 80% of their leaves thru Monday. This morning, one has maybe 20 left and the other is bare, while the ground underneath and some 20 yards downwind is fully covered with brown.

[dryslot]

RA didn't start IMBY until 5:30 AM, and was light - 0.12" by 7. However, it became moderate once I reached AUG and has been mostly moderate (a couple short heavier bursts)since, about 1" so far. Radar points to the steady moderate stuff ending here shortly after noon. Winds are moderate, though they've been effective. The two red oaks planted (about 22 yr ago - they're now +/- 18" dia and 45' tall) had tenaciously retained about 80% of their leaves thru Monday. This morning, one has maybe 20 left and the other is bare, while the ground underneath and some 20 yards downwind is fully covered with brown.

We have had +RN/RN all morning here, I don't know what i have for totals as i don't have access to my gauge from work, S/B close to or over an 1.00" at this point...

[tamarack]

We have had +RN/RN all morning here, I don't know what i have for totals as i don't have access to my gauge from work, S/B close to or over an 1.00" at this point...

My guess is from the Doppler estimate; they seem to overstate precip in light events but are pretty good on ones like the present.

[MaineJayhawk]

1.41" at PWM and it stopped half an hour ago.

[tamarack]

Sky brightening and clouds lifting/breaking a bit to south, last of steady rain tapering off. Had the heaviest burst of the storm about 30 minutes ago.

Edit: Sun pops out 12:35. Pretty sharp back edge on this one, though I'm guessing there might be a shower or two still to come.

[dendrite]

Some decent rain/wind with that line pushing through NH right now. Currently 49.8F with 0.95" now in the last 24hrs.

[wxeyeNH]

I was down at Exit 20 in Tilton doing some shopping and came out to see the line approaching. I headed up 93 on the way home and pasted through the line at Exit 22 with very heavy rain for 5 minutes. By the time I got back to Bridgewater I was well NW of the line. Although the ground was wet back home nothing new was recorded in my rain gauge after I had emptied it this morning.

[MaineJayhawk]

Wind advisories up for all ... could be some leaf-raking in my weekend plans.

[powderfreak]

Wind advisories up for all ... could be some leaf-raking in my weekend plans.

Here's BTV's max wind gust graphic... I gotta say I love the BTV graphics they put out for every event, whether its rain, snow, ice, wind, or even frost/freeze. They always have a county warning area graphic to go along with the advisory/watch/warning.

I wish more NWS offices put these out... last year we started seeing more and more of them at area NWS offices during snowstorms but I wish other offices published them for all events like BTV does.

[MaineJayhawk]

Here's BTV's max wind gust graphic... I gotta say I love the BTV graphics they put out for every event, whether its rain, snow, ice, wind, or even frost/freeze. They always have a county warning area graphic to go along with the advisory/watch/warning.

I wish more NWS offices put these out... last year we started seeing more and more of them at area NWS offices during snowstorms but I wish other offices published them for all events like BTV does.

+1

I've thought that for a while now, too. J Spin is always throwing these graphics up and I'm all over GYX's page looking for something similar, but no can do. Maybe Ekster will whip them into shape.

[powderfreak]

And here's the portion of BTV's discussion dealing with the snowfall potential tonight.

I've got my fingers crossed that there's an outside chance of some ongoing flurries/-SN activity at 6am tomorrow when I go to work at 1,000ft.

Certainly going to be some snow going on up at the mountain office at 1,550ft though.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT

337 PM EST WED NOV 17 2010

LOW-LEVEL CAA ALSO BECOMES STRONG OVERNIGHT...WITH 850MB TEMPS

DROPPING FROM +1 TO +2 THIS AFTN TO -5 TO -6C BY 12Z THU. LINGERING

LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY MIX WITH AND CHANGE OVER TO SNOW

SHOWERS. COULD SEE A LIGHT COATING TO AN INCH ABOVE 1000 FT AFTER

MIDNIGHT WITH UP TO 2 INCHES FOR THE SUMMIT LOCATIONS. NOT MUCH

IMPACT EXPECTED AWAY FROM THE MTNS WITH OROGRAPHIC/UPSLOPE

CHARACTER TO SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY. LOWS TONIGHT SHOULD RANGE FROM

THE MID 30S IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY DOWN TO THE UPR 20S FOR THE 1-2

KFT ELEVATIONAL BAND.

[powderfreak]

+1

I've thought that for a while now, too. J Spin is always throwing these graphics up and I'm all over GYX's page looking for something similar, but no can do. Maybe Ekster will whip them into shape.

Haha, that was sort of why I said that... I'm hoping some of the NWS mets from other offices that frequent this board can see the use for a graphic like this.

I'm really surprised BOX doesn't do one as they usually seem to be ahead of the curve with the latest and greatest NWS products. I know I've seen BOX put out a snowfall graphic like this, but I really like how BTV uses it anytime there is a weather advisory out. Even this fall during Frost/Freeze events they had a graphic with their forecast overnight lows... and during that sleet/freezing rain event a week or two ago they had an "Ice Accumulation" graphic out. Now they've got a "Max Wind Gust" graphic up for this event.

As far as the public goes, its much easier to visualize a forecast than read a warning and try to figure out what it means for your location. With the graphic you can just look and be like, ok, they are expecting XYZ for my location.

[dryslot]

Ended up with 1.38" rain, hvy hvy wind on the way tonight

[powderfreak]

I'm loving this heavy upslope rain that has developed over the past hour... it is pouring outside right now.

I love having access to temperatures at various elevations within the town of Stowe's civic boundaries... so with that in mind,

temps in Stowe look like this right now:

47F @ 800ft (Stowe village)

44F @ 1,600ft (Stowe Ski Resort base)

40F @ 2,200ft (Mansfield Meso-West station)

35F @ 3,900ft (near summit of Mansfield/Stowe Ski Resort)

Classic upslope enhancement as precip dries up crossing the 'Dacks, then regenerates just east of BTV along the western slopes and Green Mountain spine region. This should be heavy snow this time of year, haha. Given the 35F near the top of Mansfield, it must be close to switching over to snow up there.

[powderfreak]

I just drove home from dinner at a friend's house and I'm pretty sure we are mixing with snow... I noticed it around the Stowe High School (820ft) and I still am catching some mangled flakes at home. Temp is 37.4F here at my house... I'd say we are about 80% rain and 20% snow but there are definitely a few flakes mixing in.

Thermal profile in Stowe looks like this right now:

37F @ 800ft

33F @ 2,000ft

28F @ 3,900ft (windchill 10F; sustained 39mph gusting to 54mph out of the NW)

Unfortunately it looks like moisture is decreasing and upslope precipitation is starting to wane... we had a good burst of QPF this evening though from upslope flow.

[J.Spin]

I just drove home from dinner at a friend's house and I'm pretty sure we are mixing with snow... I noticed it around the Stowe High School (820ft) and I still am catching some mangled flakes at home. Temp is 37.4F here at my house... I'd say we are about 80% rain and 20% snow but there are definitely a few flakes mixing in.

Thermal profile in Stowe looks like this right now:

37F @ 800ft

33F @ 2,000ft

28F @ 3,900ft (windchill 10F; sustained 39mph gusting to 54mph out of the NW)

I checked a while back and noticed that the Mansfield ridgeline temperature was well below freezing, and the Intellicast radar shows the precipitation along the spine as frozen. We dropped into the 30s F a little while ago here at the house, and I've taken a peek outside for flakes, but haven't seen anything yet. I'd definitely say Mansfield has been getting some flakes though.

[MaineJayhawk]

With winds gusting to 40 last night I was thinking there might be another leaf disaster in the yard, but first light says that it isn't all that bad. Just a couple of spot rakes and I'm good to go for snow cover.

39F. Let the day begin.

[powderfreak]

I checked a while back and noticed that the Mansfield ridgeline temperature was well below freezing, and the Intellicast radar shows the precipitation along the spine as frozen. We dropped into the 30s F a little while ago here at the house, and I've taken a peek outside for flakes, but haven't seen anything yet. I'd definitely say Mansfield has been getting some flakes though.

I can see fresh snow on the ski trails this morning and even in the woods of a neighboring hill. There's a hill off to my west (one of the fingers of the Green Mtn Spine that comes down towards the town of Stowe) I use as a reference with a false summit of 2,200ft and I can see snow down to what looks to be in the 1,800ft range.

I can only see down to like 2,500ft on the ski trails from my apartment but they are very white again this morning so it certainly snowed up there. A quick check of Stowe's base area cameras shows new snow down to around that 1,600-1,800ft mark (down to the Crossover trail) and matches what I'm observing on a closer hill to town as well.

Hard to tell from this image but it looks like there's even a light dusting on the roof of the Johnson Mountain Cabin at 1,660ft in the base area:

[hvysnow79]

First 100+ winds of the season on top of the Rockpile overnight

[mreaves]

I can see fresh snow on the ski trails this morning and even in the woods of a neighboring hill. There's a hill off to my west (one of the fingers of the Green Mtn Spine that comes down towards the town of Stowe) I use as a reference with a false summit of 2,200ft and I can see snow down to what looks to be in the 1,800ft range.

I can only see down to like 2,500ft on the ski trails from my apartment but they are very white again this morning so it certainly snowed up there. A quick check of Stowe's base area cameras shows new snow down to around that 1,600-1,800ft mark (down to the Crossover trail) and matches what I'm observing on a closer hill to town as well.

Hard to tell from this image but it looks like there's even a light dusting on the roof of the Johnson Mountain Cabin at 1,660ft in the base area:

I was wondering what you would have to report this morning. As soon as I got on I89 headed to work I could see that it had snowed in the mountains. Camel's Hump and the Worcester Range have a white coating. It looks like it starts somewhere between 1500' and 2000'.

[klw]

We didn't have any snow at the house (1280 feet) but there were frozen raindrops on the car. As I drove in to work I could see that some of the local hills were white probably at 2k+ feet.