NNE slowly approaching winter

[J.Spin]

Thursday, December 02, 2010

Snow started mixing in with the rain at our place last night in the 10 PM to 11 PM timeframe, but as of this morning the temperature was in the 34-35 F range and we hadn’t picked up any accumulation. I saw that Mt. Mansfield got into the 20s F last night, and the morning report from Stowe says that the upper elevations picked up an inch at the back end of the system.

Even for our elevation however, the NWS forecast has a lot of snow potential, the graphic forecast is loaded with flakes, and the same thing continues through essentially the whole text forecast for seven days:

I’d have to think we’ll get at least a little accumulation out of a forecast like that.

Listening to Roger Hill’s forecast this morning, it sounds like the stronger chances for accumulating snow in the lower elevations really come into the area starting Saturday, as the moisture wraps around from that upper level low. Going through the weekend, he does expect at least some accumulation at all elevations, and used the quote “It’s going to look like Christmas.”

On that note, it is December now, so we should definitely start the snowpack building. Even last season, which was the latest start to the snowpack that I have recorded here, the snow was down by December 6^th. Our other slow start was December 4^th in 2006-2007, so if this upcoming pattern produces snow that stays, we should be in that range.

Since November is complete, I’ve added the precipitation measured at our location to my running list for 2010 (numbers for BTV to our west follow in parentheses, and for MPV to our east follow in brackets). For the year through November we had picked up 49.33 inches of liquid and are running at 132.9% of BTV and 128.9% of MPV.

JAN: 2.70” (2.41”) [1.76”]

FEB: 3.71” (2.13”) [2.52”]

MAR: 3.97” (2.85”) [3.46”]

APR: 4.51” (3.08”) [3.04”]

MAY: 3.21” (1.52”) [2.25”]

JUN: 6.85” (5.87”) [6.14”]

JUL: 2.94” (2.25”) [2.62”]

AUG: 3.13” (3.51”) [2.54”]

SEP: 6.12” (4.17”) [4.07”]

OCT: 8.83” (6.24”) [7.11”]

NOV: 3.36” (3.10”) [2.76”]

------------------------------

SUM: 49.33” (37.13”) [38.26”]

We also picked up an additional 1.20 inches of liquid from the system that just went through, so that pushed this location past 50 inches of water for the calendar year. We’ll see where we end up when December is complete.

[mreaves]

Got home from work last night to no ppower. Came back on at about 6:30. Winds were howling. Had about a 1/4" of slop on the ground this morning, nothing below about 1000'. As J.Spin said above, it looks like we got a prolonged period of snow coming up.

[dryslot]

Looks like we have a coiple shots at some snow here over the weekend and into the 1st part of next week with a couple retro lows........

[powderfreak]

Got home from work last night to no ppower. Came back on at about 6:30. Winds were howling. Had about a 1/4" of slop on the ground this morning, nothing below about 1000'. As J.Spin said above, it looks like we got a prolonged period of snow coming up.

Accumulating snow level here this morning was around 1,300-1,400ft. It was snowing lightly down in Stowe village when I left my house, and a few miles up the road when I crested 1,000ft I was surprised not to see anything. Then another half mile later at 1,300ft all the sudden it was boom white. Half inch at 1,550 and 1" above 2,500ft. Still flurrying.

I honestly am quite pumped for the next 7 days. All the models last night indicated some very good things for the upslope regions and most of the northern Greens in general. I bet the ski resorts pick up 12"+ in the next 7 days.

[klw]

We had about 1/3 of an inch this morning. Nice to see the snow was replenished after the rain. BTV's discussion certainly brings hope.

http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=BTV&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1&highlight=off

HOWEVER...MARITIME SOURCE OF AIRMASS SHOULD

ENSURE DEVELOPMENT OF WARM AIR ADVECTIVE PROCESSES ALOFT AS LOW

BACKS CLOSER BY SATURDAY. THIS SHOULD ALLOW SNOW SHOWER/LIGHT SNOW

ACTIVITY TO BLOSSOM QUITE NICELY ACROSS OUR NRN MTNS DURING THIS

TIME WITH AT LEAST A FEW INCHES POSSIBLE ACROSS THE HIGHER

ELEVATIONS...ESP THE NRN GREENS. ACCUMULATIONS A TAD MORE TRICKY

ACROSS THE LOWER ELEVATIONS OF THE NORTH AS NEAR-SURFACE LAYERS AT

OR JUST ABOVE THE FREEZING MARK. FUTHER SOUTH...THREAT OF ACCUM

SNOWS LESS DUE TO MORE UNFAVORABLE NWRLY FLOW AND FURTHER DISTANCE

FROM DEEPER MOISTURE. NONETHELESS...SOMETHING TO KEEP AN EYE ON

AS WE PROGRESS INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

AS OF 400 AM EST WEDNESDAY...THE UPPER LOW WILL BE FIRMLY IN PLACE

OVER NEW ENGLAND BY THE START OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD. WITH A

BLOCKING RIDGE OVER THE NORTH ATLANTIC...THIS LOW WILL SIT AND

SPIN OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY UNTIL AT LEAST MID WEEK NEXT WEEK. AS

SUCH...EXPECT COOL CLOUDY WEATHER WITH A CHANCE OF MAINLY MOUNTAIN

SNOW SHOWERS EACH DAY OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD. THE GFS AND ECMWF

HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH RETROGRADING A COUPLE OF

SURFACE SYSTEMS BACK INTO NEW BRUNSWICK AND EASTERN MAINE. THE

FIRST LOOKS TO BE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. MEANWHILE...THE

SECOND SYSTEM DEVELOPS OFF THE CAROLINA COAST AND SLIPS

NORTHEASTWARD UNTIL IT ENCOUNTERS THE AFOREMENTIONED RIDGE AND

BACKS INTO DOWNEAST MAINE. ALTHOUGH EXACT TIMING/PLACEMENT DETAILS

ARE STILL DIFFICULT TO DISCERN...CERTAINTY IS GROWING FOR ENHANCED

SNOWFALL LATE IN THE WEEKEND AND THE FIRST PART OF THE WORK WEEK.

REGARDLESS...WITH LIGHT SNOW FOR SEVERAL DAYS IN A ROW...THE

NORTHERN MOUNTAINS COULD SEE SEVERAL INCHES OF ACCUMULATION BY THE

TIME ALL IS SAID AND DONE.

[red]

Looks like we have a coiple shots at some snow here over the weekend and into the 1st part of next week with a couple retro lows........

I was just looking at that ... SWEET!!!

However, after last year I would rather not be getting snow chances from retro lows .... they scare me.

[dryslot]

I was just looking at that ... SWEET!!!

However, after last year I would rather not be getting snow chances from retro lows .... they scare me.

I agree, Its not the best way for snow, But seeing we have had none, I'll take my chances that we see at least some this time around...

[Mica Vim Toot]

I was just looking at that ... SWEET!!!

However, after last year I would rather not be getting snow chances from retro lows .... they scare me.

Yup. Last winter's pattern of retros ate Northern Aroostook County up. Warm NE'terlies rotating around bringing maritime slop storm after storm. We spent much time warmer than S. NE during many storms in that crap.

This blocking has the same look. There is growing hope for Monday/Tues but beware the backdoor warm front!

[wxeyeNH]

Morning musings from Central NH. Ended up with 1.90" from yesterdays storm. At some point overnight some snow fell on the hills just to my west as Cardigan and all the hills in Southern Grafon county over 1500 feet are coated white. I had nothing at 1100 feet.

Interesting trends on the NAM. Trending to bring the first low for later this weekend further and further west. Looks like much of New England is now going to get into the snow. Good QPF in Maine and upslope areas as the north winds blow up the mountains. Looks like Central NH south of the Whites will get shafted with downsloping. If the low comes west off the ocean further south then we would get more of an east component and more snow. Last year when we had that huge low retrograde west I got very little snow.

12Z GFS will be interesting. Nice to have something to watch again!

Gene

[red]

Yup. Last winter's pattern of retros ate Northern Aroostook County up. Warm NE'terlies rotating around bringing maritime slop storm after storm. We spent much time warmer than S. NE during many storms in that crap.

This blocking has the same look. There is growing hope for Monday/Tues but beware the backdoor warm front!

That was a complete disaster. I remember watching that maritime air seep right through New Brunswick and into Maine on the back side of the January retro bomb last year. The winter never recovered. The effect on CAR was unreal and it wasn't much better in my neck of the woods. Let's hope this block eases and we don't see a repeat.

[tamarack]

Yup. Last winter's pattern of retros ate Northern Aroostook County up. Warm NE'terlies rotating around bringing maritime slop storm after storm. We spent much time warmer than S. NE during many storms in that crap.

This blocking has the same look. There is growing hope for Monday/Tues but beware the backdoor warm front!

Sure did. Thru 12/31 CAR was about normal for snowfall, but the 2009-10 season wound up as their 3rd least snowy in 71 yr record. It was horrible for the rest of Maine (our winter basically ended in the wee hr of 1/3 as the retro bomb snow changed to rain) but not as historically awful as in Aroostook.

Had a fun drive home from PWM last eve, after my wife's very successful (so far) knee replacement surgery. Sheets of windblown rain on I-95 Topsham to Richmond, then TS-type big-drops downpour from Belgrade Village to home. I was very surprised to find only 0.29" in the bucket at 10:45 last eve - thought I'd driven thru more than that in just the final 15 miles - and not all that much wind to mess with the measurement. Total from the event thru 7 this morn (only a smatter since and it's now PC) was 1.17".

06z gfs looks odd for 2m temps during the upcoming retro events. AUG remains about 2C while h85 at -6 and heights 530s and even lower. Then, out in 10-16 day fantasy land, it shows about 2' of snow from one moderate and one blockbuster. Better than showing a rainy torch, I guess.

Edit: 12z gfs loses the blockbuster, but still has the moderate event for 12/12-13 - long ways out.

[wxeyeNH]

Unexpected moderate snow shower moving through. 35.2F much of the state is mostly sunny but a strip of clouds is moving NW to SE thru Central NH

[powderfreak]

NW flow upslope regions get absolutely crushed from late Monday into early Thursday morning on the 12z GFS. This is starting to have the signal of a major event. This is smoothed QPF (in reality it would be more terrain driven with less in the Champlain Valley and more further south along the Greens), but this is a huge NW flow signal to see this QPF distribution on the GFS.

I'm getting quite excited that a lot of us in the northern/central Greens see 6"+ during this period (in the lower elevations, <1,500ft) with the higher elevations of Jay, Smuggs, and Mansfield/Stowe (ski area) seeing 12-24" during this time. This is not including whatever happens this weekend where I think the ski areas may be looking at 4-8" or so, with 2-4" in the valleys.

[ctsnowstorm628]

i am very excited for areas in northern VT for this upcoming week. I'm at school at Lyndon State studying meteorology and the opportunity is certainly there for 6+" in the next week with much, much more above 1500ft

[crownweather]

Ugh!! This winter certainly seems to be continuing where last winter left off here in Aroostook County. Cold rain all morning has taken about half of our snowpack (from about 7 inches to about 3-4 inches). As of noontime, we are at 40 Degrees here in Caribou. I am hoping and praying that the retro low early next week doesn't pull in the warm air from the Canadian Maritimes like the January retro bomb did for us here in Aroostook.

[dryslot]

Ugh!! This winter certainly seems to be continuing where last winter left off here in Aroostook County. Cold rain all morning has taken about half of our snowpack (from about 7 inches to about 3-4 inches). As of noontime, we are at 40 Degrees here in Caribou. I am hoping and praying that the retro low early next week doesn't pull in the warm air from the Canadian Maritimes like the January retro bomb did for us here in Aroostook.

I have mentioned this as well over the last few days, We need to keep the 850's below 0c, We got shafted as well with that storm last Jan and i am very leary of these next 2 as well........

[powderfreak]

Just thought I should post yesterday's wind damage reports... many schools were closed today along the western slopes of the Greens where winds of 70-90mph were experienced.

Some impressive damage for a synoptic storm (non-convective):

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
630 PM EST WED DEC 01 2010

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
           ..REMARKS..

0205 PM     NON-TSTM WND DMG ST. REGIS FALLS         44.67N 74.53W
12/01/2010                   FRANKLIN           NY   AMATEUR RADIO

           ROOF BLOWN OFF 2 STORY BUILDING ON MAIN STREET.

0205 PM     NON-TSTM WND DMG 3 N DICKINSON           44.79N 74.55W
12/01/2010                   FRANKLIN           NY   AMATEUR RADIO

           TREES DOWN ALONG ROUTE 11B IN FRANKLIN COUNTY FROM ST.
           LAWRENCE COUNTY LINE TO BANGOR.

0250 PM     NON-TSTM WND DMG PAWLET                  43.35N 73.18W
12/01/2010                   RUTLAND            VT   TRAINED SPOTTER

           TREES AND POWERLINES DOWN. SHINGLES OFF AREAS ROOFS.

0320 PM     NON-TSTM WND DMG ESSEX CENTER            44.51N 73.06W
12/01/2010                   CHITTENDEN         VT   NWS EMPLOYEE

           LARGE PINE TREE DOWN ACROSS DRIVEWAY.

0341 PM     NON-TSTM WND DMG 2 ENE ESSEX JUNCTION    44.50N 73.08W
12/01/2010                   CHITTENDEN         VT   TRAINED SPOTTER

           TRAFFIC LIGHTS RIPPED OFF POLES

0400 PM     NON-TSTM WND DMG PLEASANT VALLEY         44.59N 72.86W
12/01/2010                   LAMOILLE           VT   PUBLIC

           BARN ROOF BLOWN OFF.

0400 PM     NON-TSTM WND DMG RICHMOND                44.41N 72.99W
12/01/2010                   CHITTENDEN         VT   NEWSPAPER

           200-LB WEATHER VANE BLOWN DOWN ON E. MAIN STREET

0400 PM     NON-TSTM WND DMG RICHMOND                44.41N 72.99W
12/01/2010                   CHITTENDEN         VT   NEWSPAPER

           DUGWAY ROAD BLOCKED BY FALLEN TREE.

0400 PM     NON-TSTM WND DMG JERICHO                 44.50N 72.99W
12/01/2010                   CHITTENDEN         VT   NEWSPAPER

           SKYVIEW ROAD AND FIVE OTHER ROADS BLOCKED BY TREES.

0400 PM     NON-TSTM WND DMG ESSEX JUNCTION          44.49N 73.11W
12/01/2010                   CHITTENDEN         VT   NWS EMPLOYEE

           TREES DOWN THROUGHOUT ESSEX.

0400 PM     NON-TSTM WND DMG HARDWICK                44.50N 72.37W
12/01/2010                   CALEDONIA          VT   PUBLIC

           EIGHTEEN-INCH DIAMETER TREE DOWN ON MACKVILLE ROAD.

0400 PM     NON-TSTM WND DMG STANNARD                44.53N 72.22W
12/01/2010                   CALEDONIA          VT   PUBLIC

           LARGE MAPLE TREE DOWN AT STANNARD CEMETERY.

0521 PM     NON-TSTM WND DMG JEFFERSONVILLE          44.64N 72.83W
12/01/2010                   LAMOILLE           VT   PUBLIC

           TREES DOWN AND A BARN COLLAPSED

[borderwx]

For anyone else that wants to be plotted on the mesomap:

I whipped up a little tool that will help me find your exact location.

Just click your location on the map found through the link below. At the top of the page it'll give you the X and Y coordinates. Let me know what it says for your location and then I'll plot you.

http://72.172.140.226/getlocation.php

de lurking to get in on the winter fun

x= 501

y=341

driving back to newport center from lyndonville last night was unreal, left the rink at 10 (45F), top of sheffield heights(38F), orleans exit(33F and snowing), home(30F blizzard) - 40 mile drive total

love VT weather

[powderfreak]

i am very excited for areas in northern VT for this upcoming week. I'm at school at Lyndon State studying meteorology and the opportunity is certainly there for 6+" in the next week with much, much more above 1500ft

Yeah, unfortunately the Lyndon area doesn't get in on the "upslope" snow but it looks like we will get widespread synoptic snows, too, across the northern tier. But pay attention to spots like Jay, Enosburgh Falls, Jeffersonville, Stowe, Underhill, Cambridge, Waterbury, Richmond, Bolton, Huntington, Warren, Waitsfield, etc.... anyone within 5-7 miles of the Green Mountain Spine is going to get a pretty good shot of snow, I think. Elsewhere in the mountainous terrain there will be plenty of snow showers and I think most of us come out with a decent covering for the first time this winter.

[dryslot]

Yeah, unfortunately the Lyndon area doesn't get in on the "upslope" snow but it looks like we will get widespread synoptic snows, too, across the northern tier. But pay attention to spots like Jay, Enosburgh Falls, Jeffersonville, Stowe, Underhill, Cambridge, Waterbury, Richmond, Bolton, Huntington, Warren, Waitsfield, etc.... anyone within 5-7 miles of the Green Mountain Spine is going to get a pretty good shot of snow, I think. Elsewhere in the mountainous terrain there will be plenty of snow showers and I think most of us come out with a decent covering for the first time this winter.

Congrats, Some of you guys are in for some major upsloping snows next week..........

[Bigbob]

My location:

X=783, Y=820

[powderfreak]

00z NAM still looks good for this weekend...thinking the northern VT powder league picks up 3-6" this weekend as a prelude to what happens next week. Here's weekend QPF totals:

[powderfreak]

32F with light snow.

Its been snowing lightly (flurries for the most part) though we've been getting 5 minute bursts decent flakes every so often... cars are turning white but ground is just wet. It was warm today (got up to 39F at my house) so its going to take a steadier snow to whiten the ground. I just got back from Shaws supermarket and I think they've got a heartier dusting over there on the north side of town. Cars and even some grassy areas seemed to be a bit whiter than here closer to the mountain. Radar isn't showing anything happening, but its definitely snowing out.

[hvysnow79]

32F with flurries

[J.Spin]

Like Powderfreak we've had flakes in the air all evening, but nothing has been accumulating down at this elevation. Scott - I immediately thought of one of your microclimate comments today on the drive home. I got off the bus at the Waterbury Park and Ride and it was just cloudy, I hadn't even been thinking about snow in our area or anything. Wouldn't you know it though, just after I pass by the Cider House, about 3/4 of a mile from home, the lights caught a fleck of white. I figured it was a scrap of paper or a leaf or whatever, but within moments there were flakes all around and I had to laugh because I'd just entered "the zone". I took it as a good sign though that we are getting into that winter regime.

Just after replying to Powderfreak in the Retrograde Thread and indicating that we hadn’t seen any accumulation from our snowfall, I checked the snowboard before heading off to bed, and low and behold it had started to accumulate. It was around 11:15 P.M., a steady stream of flurries/light snow was coming down, and there was a tenth of an inch of graupel on the snowboard. The precipitation was for the most part standard flakes, but the graupel balls seem to have the most staying power to accumulate. Our temperature eventually dropped to the freezing mark, so the accumulation was still there this morning. This will go down as the first accumulation for this event, with hopefully more to come.

Our point and click forecast is calling for 2 to 4 inches of snow through tomorrow, which was fairly in line with what Roger Hill suggested in his broadcast this morning. In his 7:15 AM broadcast, Roger suggested that there could easily be 3 to 6 inches of snow on the ground for the Barre/Montpelier/Waterbury area by next week at this time, with mountain totals measured in feet.

For those skiers, snow enthusiasts, or whoever that are outside of the WDEV broadcast area but are interested in Roger’s audio forecasts and analyses for North Central/Northern Vermont and the surrounding areas, you can actually listen to WDEV online at:

http://www.wdevradio.com/audio.html

Roger seems to do three morning broadcasts at ~6:15 AM, ~7:15 AM, and ~8:10 AM, but I’ve found the times vary a little bit, presumably as they fit them into the rest of the morning programming. I’ve had good luck with the MP3 stream option, but not the QuickTime one up to this point.

On an observations/connectivity note, our commuter busses have free wireless internet available now, and I’ve been trying it out the past few days. The speeds seem great, and it appears to be available through the whole route between Burlington and Waterbury, but I haven’t used it enough yet to know if there are dead spots. So, for times when I ride the bus it will provide a little greater opportunity to send in observations along the Winooski Valley. Of course at this time of year it’s dark in both directions of the ride, but the lights at the Richmond Park and Ride usually provide a good view of what’s going on.

Edit: I forgot to mention that there's even snow in the air here in Burlington, flurries with no accumulation.

[red]

Looks like it will be too warm around here for any accumulating snow with the weekend storms but the potential looks good for Monday. Interesting CAR discussion early this morning. They said one of the top analogs for Monday is the Jan 2nd retro bomb of last year. Not sure how I feel about that but for now if it gives us accumulating snow I'm all for it. Just hope we don't rot in the maritime air again after its done.

[dryslot]

Looks like it will be too warm around here for any accumulating snow with the weekend storms but the potential looks good for Monday. Interesting CAR discussion early this morning. They said one of the top analogs for Monday is the Jan 2nd retro bomb of last year. Not sure how I feel about that but for now if it gives us accumulating snow I'm all for it. Just hope we don't rot in the maritime air again after its done.

Maybe a sloppy 1", Mtns are looking at 4-8" tonight and tomorow.......

[MaineJayhawk]

Maybe a sloppy 1", Mtns are looking at 4-8" tonight and tomorow.......

A yawner. Going total weenie on the 12th, though.

[powderfreak]

Maybe a half inch last night... not sure, didn't wake up to measure it, but the car is all nice and white.

We now have continued light snow being back lit by the sun poking through. Nice wintry, scene. Hopefully more to come.

[powderfreak]

On an observations/connectivity note, our commuter busses have free wireless internet available now, and I’ve been trying it out the past few days. The speeds seem great, and it appears to be available through the whole route between Burlington and Waterbury, but I haven’t used it enough yet to know if there are dead spots. So, for times when I ride the bus it will provide a little greater opportunity to send in observations along the Winooski Valley. Of course at this time of year it’s dark in both directions of the ride, but the lights at the Richmond Park and Ride usually provide a good view of what’s going on.

Edit: I forgot to mention that there's even snow in the air here in Burlington, flurries with no accumulation.

I read an article in the Free Press about this wireless on the commuter buses from Montpelier/Waterbury... the first thing I thought of was now J.Spin can post observations on his trip home, haha.

Time to go run up the road and go skiing for an hour or two before work at noon. I think we look good for a fun week ahead of us.