eurojosh Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 Off goes the NAM.... Will deep south really see a foot of snow? Will MA see mixing issues? Will NYC get another blizzard? Stay tuned folks... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
friedmators Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 cut off @ 500 at 24 hours.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 NAM defintely looks a little more stronger and amplified vs 6z out west Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sunny and Warm Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 This set of runs should give us a clue as to what Tuesday/Wednesday looks like. Can anyone confirm that this model suite has sampled all the players on the field?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TopOfNJ Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 NAM @84 looks like a good coastal setup, but it is the NAM @ 84 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eurojosh Posted January 8, 2011 Author Share Posted January 8, 2011 NAM @84 looks like a good coastal setup, but it is the NAM @ 84 I'm still concerned about that inland low sucking the moisture across to Western PA, and with it the warmer temperatures to the MA... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
old man winter Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 Yup this could easily be a coastal hugger with lots of ice inland as depicted on the 84 NAM . 700mb and 850mb are way west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eurojosh Posted January 8, 2011 Author Share Posted January 8, 2011 Despite the GOM low looking further south at 36hrs, there seems to be a lot more confluence in the moisture between the southern and northern streams... On the one hand I guess that's a good thing... On the other, it does build my concern about the inland low drawing in the moisture and temps if the two don't phase "properly". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 Yup this could easily be a coastal hugger with lots of ice inland as depicted on the 84 NAM . 700mb and 850mb are way west. That's not at all what is depicted on the 84 hour NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Feb Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 Yup this could easily be a coastal hugger with lots of ice inland as depicted on the 84 NAM . 700mb and 850mb are way west. Nice first post. Hope the second holds off awhile. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 Gfs so far looking similar to it's 6z run which is not really a bad thjng Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 Wow look at the huge 973 low pressure riding northeast away at 54 hours. Amazing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 That's not at all what is depicted on the 84 hour NAM. No it shows a quick 2-4 inches and then a dry slot. Not a terrible solution. I'd prefer the slightly wetter euro but all the models seem to be going accumulating snow. It's not worthy of the bus but might be worthy of sled.I was talking about dc not points northward. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eurojosh Posted January 8, 2011 Author Share Posted January 8, 2011 No it shows a quick 2-4 inches and then a dry slot. Not a terrible solution. I'd prefer the slightly wetter euro but all the models seem to be going accumulating snow. It's not worthy of the bus but might be worthy of sled. GFS may be realistic... but isn't very impressive. It seems to be putting a lot of weight on that inland low... sort of an overphase, where the two streams come together over the deep south, then split apart again as they turn northwards... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 GFS remains an outlier. Looks nothing like the other models. Misses everyone basically. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 GFS remains an outlier. Looks nothing like the other models. Misses everyone basically. If you look at the 06Z ensemble tracks it's close to being in the middle until it get to near hatteras and then the tracks diverge and the gfs is on the east side of the envelope. Right now, I'd play the middle ground but will wait for the euro to see what it has to offer. The models are still having loads of problems handling the shortwave in the west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 If you look at the 06Z ensemble tracks it's close to being in the middle until it get to near hatteras and then the tracks diverge and the gfs is on the east side of the envelope. Right now, I'd play the middle ground but will wait for the euro to see what it has to offer. The models are still having loads of problems handling the shortwave in the west. Well, even the wimpy GFS gives us a couple inches so that's not too bad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxClimate Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 The GFS may be missing some of the dynamics for the coastal low. Water temps are still relatively warm and convection / latent heat might make the coastal low stronger than the inland low. We'll have to see how this unfolds, but I'm thinking the we'll see a trend in the models for a deeper coastal surface low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NinjaWarrior2 Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 12z Model run tracks RED=GFS YELLOW=GGEM BLUE=UKMET GREEN=ECMWF BROWN=NOGAPS LGHT PURPLE=NAM PINK=GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eurojosh Posted January 8, 2011 Author Share Posted January 8, 2011 12z Model run tracks And for the interior low....? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NinjaWarrior2 Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 And for the interior low....? Same colors as above Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 12z EC ensembles have primary low and secondary forming just se of ILM at hr 72. AT hr 84, the primary has weakened rapidly near PIT and secondary low has formed and moved to a position maybe 60-70 miles east of Wallops Island. AT hr 96, the low passes in between ACK and the 40/70 benchmark. I can't see qpf, however. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormman Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 12z EC ensembles have primary low and secondary forming just se of ILM at hr 72. AT hr 84, the primary has weakened rapidly near PIT and secondary low has formed and moved to a position maybe 60-70 miles east of Wallops Island. AT hr 96, the low passes in between ACK and the 40/70 benchmark. I can't see qpf, however. Is this east or west of the operational? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eurojosh Posted January 8, 2011 Author Share Posted January 8, 2011 Same colors as above Thanks, that's awesome. While I'm on a roll... What would be really awesome would be a graph that shows the model means between the two tracks, including weighting for the strengths of the lows. I don't suppose you have any of those up your sleeve? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 Is this east or west of the operational? It looks the same. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormman Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 It looks the same. then wouldnt that mean that the esembles have all trended east since yesterday, since yesterday they were all west of operational? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 then wouldnt that mean that the esembles have all trended east since yesterday, since yesterday they were all west of operational? i dont think it works this way... its more like the op EC has come in line with the esemble the past couple runs so now they are both basically the same. which is super news obv. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 12z EC ensembles have primary low and secondary forming just se of ILM at hr 72. AT hr 84, the primary has weakened rapidly near PIT and secondary low has formed and moved to a position maybe 60-70 miles east of Wallops Island. AT hr 96, the low passes in between ACK and the 40/70 benchmark. I can't see qpf, however. Are ACK and the BM at the same longitude? If this was the case, it would mean the low was bending more eastward at that point. Not a big deal, but interesting nonetheless.... I wonder if it slows down any? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 Are ACK and the BM at the same longitude? If this was the case, it would mean the low was bending more eastward at that point. Not a big deal, but interesting nonetheless.... I wonder if it slows down any? Yes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NinjaWarrior2 Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 12z GGEM Ensemble mean is way west of the OP, tracks near the ECMWF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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