ams30721us Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 :: From Hun: THIS COLD AIRMASS IN PLACE IS ONE INGREDIENT NEEDED FOR WINTRY WEATHER OVER THESE PARTS. THE SECOND IS SURFACE LOW PRESSURE FORMING OVER EASTERN TEXAS SUNDAY MORNING...BRINGING PLENTY OF MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY TO THE EAST. THIS SYSTEM SHOULD TRACK ALONG THE GULF COAST... REACHING SOUTHERN GEORGIA BY MONDAY EVENING. MOISTURE ACCOMPANYING THIS SYSTEM...PLUS COLD AIR ALREADY IN PLACE SHOULD BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW ACROSS PARTS OF THE TENNESSEE VALLEY...BEGINNING SUNDAY AFTERNOON. HAVE KEPT A SIMILAR TIMING WITH THE SNOW REACHING MOST OF THIS FORECAST AREA BY THE LATE AFTERNOON. DESPITE CLOUDY SKIES...HIGH TEMPS SHOULD WARM JUST ABOVE FREEZING MOST LOCATIONS. EVEN WITH PRECIP FALLING...AN ALREADY COLD GROUND FROM THE PREVIOUS NIGHTS COLD TEMPS MAY BE ENOUGH TO START CAUSING PROBLEMS...ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS SOUTH OF THE TENNESSEE RIVER AND WEST OF I-65...THEREFORE THE WINTER STORM WATCH HAS BEEN STARTED A FEW HOURS EARLIER FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON. EVEN WITH OVERCAST SKIES... ENOUGH LONGWAVE RADIATION FROM THE SUN SHOULD HOPEFULLY HELP KEEP SERIOUS PROBLEMS MINIMIZED...AT LEAST TILL DUSK. FOR SUNDAY NIGHT...DEEPER MOISTURE AND OVERRUNNING/UPGLIDE NE OF THE SURFACE LOW SHOULD BRING CATEGORICAL CHANCES OF SNOWFALL. HAVE THE HEAVIEST ACCUMULATIONS OCCURRING AFTER MIDNIGHT...WITH 6-HOUR AMOUNTS RANGING FROM 2-5 INCHES. STORM SNOWFALL TOTALS THROUGH MONDAY SHOULD RANGE UPWARDS OF 6 INCHES...WITH A FEW SLIGHTLY HIGHER AMOUNTS. SOUNDINGS AND THE PLANE VIEW SHOWS SOME INSTABILITY POSSIBLE IN THIS SYSTEM...WHICH COULD HELP PRODUCE LOCALLY HIGHER PRECIP AMOUNTS AND/OR A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER. HAVE NOT INCLUDED THUNDER IN THE FORECAST THIS ISSUANCE GIVEN SLIM CHANCES. SNOWS SHOULD CONTINUE DURING MONDAY. SOUNDING OUTPUT FROM THE NAM/GFS BOTH NOTE WARMER AIR ALOFT...WHICH MAY BRING MIX OF ICE PELLETS AND MAYBE LIGHT FREEZING RAIN MON AFTERNOON/EVENING. HAVE REDUCED AREAS OF THIS OCCURRENCE TO LOCATIONS SOUTH OF THE TENNESSEE RIVER...AS THE 00Z RUNS HAVE COME IN COLDER. THE REST OF THE AREA HAVE KEPT THE PRECIP AS ALL SNOW. THIS WINTRY PRECIP SHOULD LET UP MORE DURING MON NIGHT AND ON TUESDAY AS THE SYSTEM EXITS TO THE EAST. MODEL OUTPUT SUGGESTS A COASTAL LOW AND ONE TRACKING OVER THE APPALACHIANS OF THE MID ATLANTIC THROUGH TUE...WHICH WOULD KEEP SOME CHANCE OF PRECIP CONTINUING...VERSUS IF MORE OF THE ENERGY TRANSLATED TO THE COASTAL STORM. HAVE ENDED SNOWS FROM SOUTH TO NORTH TUE NIGHT. MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND COLD TEMPS WILL OTHERWISE CONTINUE THROUGH THE MID WEEK... WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE LOWER 30S...AND LOWS IN THE TEENS. EXTENDED GUIDANCE...BOTH THE GFS/ECMWF NOTE A FLOW OF ARCTIC AIR CONTINUING SE ACROSS MUCH OF THE CONUS EAST OF THE ROCKIES. THIS RIDGE BUILDING TO THE SE SHOULD HELP MAKE FOR MORE SUN THAN CLOUDS AFTER MIDWEEK... WITH COLD TEMPS OTHERWISE CONTINUING INTO THE END OF NEXT WEEK. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MotoWeatherman Posted January 8, 2011 Author Share Posted January 8, 2011 The latest GFS snow loop shows the precip further north and lighter. http://www.daculawea...gfs_snow_06.php while the 3:35am NAM still paints a pretty picture http://www.daculawea..._se_snow_06.php You can see the update times in my sig When you click on the BHM GRlevel3 in your sig it brings up Jackson MS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 I agree burger, I think we'll have a solid amount of data to work with this time. I'd like to see several more degrees of cold air in the Atlanta area, it appears on the NAM snow map you can see indications of a warm nose into the ATL area. I know that's after most of the precip is gone but you can see it cuts down on the totals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MotoWeatherman Posted January 8, 2011 Author Share Posted January 8, 2011 All is definitely not lost. Personally the EURO does not bother me at this point. I think we just need to watch the trends of the NAM and GFS today and tomorrow at 12z run. The short range canadian RGEM still looks great... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MotoWeatherman Posted January 8, 2011 Author Share Posted January 8, 2011 I get cross-eyed looking at web pages... let me fix that. Thanks! You've done a boat load of awesome programming! Wish I knew how to do half of that stuff. I just know extremely basic HTML and how to cheat with WYSIWYG editors. LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wild Weather Monger Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 JMA paints 3x the qpf the EMCF does. Inside of 72 hours, lets see which one is closer. Emperor JMA, or King Euro. http://grib2.com/jma...THKPRP_48HR.gif http://grib2.com/jma...THKPRP_72HR.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ams30721us Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 Quick somebody called the Bread Truck tell them to get down south ASAP! haha Bread is going to quick in Bama....No bread left at this Walmart around Birmingham! haha Good to see peeps taking this storm seriously though. Breadless Walmart Shelf Pic Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amos83 Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 Well WSBTV in CLT is really hyping the storm this morning.... the on air MET over the past hour has referred to the pending storm as: "major storm brewing for us on Monday" "having the potential to by a type storm we talk about for a long time", "this time around people need to begin batting down the hatches" "this could be a once in a decade type storm" Talk about hyping a storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wild Weather Monger Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 For our Tennessee and N. Carolina weenies, 6z ensembles have quite a few members much further north with the best qpf. http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/gfsensemble/members/06zf048.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itunis Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 All is definitely not lost. Personally the EURO does not bother me at this point. I think we just need to watch the trends of the NAM and GFS today and tomorrow at 12z run. The short range canadian RGEM still looks great... Yeah, I'm not panicking by any means. FFC's 3-5" call is looking excellent right now in light of the less bullish Euro and 6Z runs. The foot of snow the NAM was showing last night was amazing to see on the maps, but I'm not at all surprised the NAM trended a bit drier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amos83 Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 I Assume ET left some phrase for folks to note HAHA, ET wasn't on this morning it was the semi new guy, he is a little older and goofy looking. I can never remember his name for some reason. ET is real weenie so I can't imagine what he will say later on if get works this weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 I agree burger, I think we'll have a solid amount of data to work with this time. I'd like to see several more degrees of cold air in the Atlanta area, it appears on the NAM snow map you can see indications of a warm nose into the ATL area. I know that's after most of the precip is gone but you can see it cuts down on the totals. Yea I know I have been guilty of wanting to put too much trust in the models, but I think people need to think of them as like a sports game. During the Super Bowl every year they do a simulation on Madden, it takes attributes given to each player and then predicts how they will act. A lot of times it gets it close, but it doesn't factor in intangibles like a back up coming in and really being explosive. Same thing with the models, they simply say "the atmosphere looks like it will do this" however it might not know that some vort energy might end up stronger or weaker. Not saying that we won't bust, but based on the fact that there is continuity to say, "there is a major chance of a winter storm" has me VERY excited. Again the models will tell us about what to expect and Ma nature will do the rest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 00Z snow overlay map Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 06Z snow overlay map And that's with the somewhat lower totals that were being spit out by the 6z suites. I'll take it and run with it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 No doubt man. Plus, that lollipop of heavy returns continues to show up around Anderson over to Athens. I would gladly take this to the bank . And that's with the somewhat lower totals that were being spit out by the 6z suites. I'll take it and run with it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WXinCanton Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 Yeah, I'm not panicking by any means. FFC's 3-5" call is looking excellent right now in light of the less bullish Euro and 6Z runs. The foot of snow the NAM was showing last night was amazing to see on the maps, but I'm not at all surprised the NAM trended a bit drier. the NAM is still good for us! The models will waffle all day. But I will take this any day Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 Interesting that the SREF guidence is way further north with maximum precip totals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ams30721us Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 I think areas in the Tennessee Valley Region (South-Central and South-East Tenn, Nrn Miss, Bama, Extreme Nrn GA) Look for 5-10 inches of Snow. I may increase this a little depending on 12z Data to around 6-12 but I think 5-10 should be pretty common area wide with most falling in the form of Snow with maybe a few hours of sleet or Frz. Rain. Major Snowstorm in this area. For BHM and ATL metros I think 3-5 is a good number to throw out for now. To many questions still down there of Changeover and how soon or late that will be. I think 3-5 will be common across all of North and Central Bama and GA by Monday early Morning. The 3-5 could go up depending on how fast or slow the changeover happens. Cedric Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itunis Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 06Z snow overlay map That's the 0Z run unfortunately Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chapelhillwx Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 That's the 0Z run unfortunately Hahaha, it says "60z". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 yup. Looking at WW totals off the 06Z gfs look to be a wide swath of 3-6 for most WNC areas.. That's the 0Z run unfortunately Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sluggo Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 No doubt man. Plus, that lollipop of heavy returns continues to show up around Anderson over to Athens. I would gladly take this to the bank . Have you ever experienced 'Thunder Snow'?? I have heard it 5 times growing up in Boone, NC. 2 of those times, the claps were proceeded by lightning moving through the air w/ pretty much white out conditions for a 16-18" / 10-12 hr events. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathertree4u Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 Interesting that the SREF guidence is way further north with maximum precip totals. Is this system moving north in the models or is it just me? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 Have you ever experienced 'Thunder Snow'?? I have heard it 5 times growing up in Boone, NC. 2 of those times, the claps were proceeded by lightning moving through the air w/ pretty much white out conditions for a 16-18" / 10-12 hr events. I've seen it (or heard it anyways) a few times. We had some during the March storm of 2009 and the storm in 2003 I believe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 Warm nose be damned.. 06 GFS Bufkit avl 5.3" HKY 3.2" (with some FR) GSP 4.7" (with some FR) CLT 6.5" (with some FR) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 Warm nose be damned.. 06 GFS Bufkit avl 5.3" HKY 3.2" (with some FR) GSP 4.7" (with some FR) CLT 6.5" (with some FR) That layer of ZR always makes it fun, though very dangerous. Nothing like walking on the snow and hearing the pops of breaking ice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itunis Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 That layer of ZR always makes it fun, though very dangerous. Nothing like walking on the snow and hearing the pops of breaking ice. For those of us rooting for school/work to be called off a nice glaze of ice wouldn't hurt. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amos83 Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 That layer of ZR always makes it fun, though very dangerous. Nothing like walking on the snow and hearing the pops of breaking ice. yeah the GFS on the 18z, 0z, and now on the 6z has been consistent with showing about 5-6" of snow with .25+ of freezing rain on top of that. If this happens there will be a lot of power outages in the CLT area. Good thing my grocery store is within walking distance from my house Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MotoWeatherman Posted January 8, 2011 Author Share Posted January 8, 2011 I've revamped my radar pages. Loops are not up yet but will be soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 yeah the GFS on the 18z, 0z, and now on the 6z has been consistent with showing about 5-6" of snow with .25+ of freezing rain on top of that. If this happens there will be a lot of power outages in the CLT area. Good thing my grocery store is within walking distance from my house Yea same here, though I seriously expect this system to over perform and if it does...look out, this WILL be the storm to remember if that happens...and just by default it will be the storm of the decade so far. OK I'm done with the banter talk. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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