Rankin5150 Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 Cheeznado, The hr 42 panel looks a lot stronger. More expansive left to right... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brent Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 Good grief at all the precip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rankin5150 Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 Looks like it is holding neutral. Hoping for some negative tilt next frame... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rankin5150 Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 Good grief at all the precip. Its funny how there is almost a perfect straight cutoff line of the precip on the northern edge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rankin5150 Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 The qpf appears less at 48. Looks like the N/NE side is slowly being eaten away. Still a slight negative tilt though. Hope the next frame can bring this baby back to life. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rankin5150 Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 Oh boy...weaker at 54. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 Where in the hell is your RED TAG? I love your posts and you bring a lot to the table! Thanks for the write-up a couple of posts ago. Question...this timeframe (as of tonight's 0Z model runs) should be shifting more emphasis to the GFS and NAM anyway. Correct? From a verification/bias standpoint, I hear that the EURO looses its luster from 3 days to showtime. Am I correct with that statement? I always see the EURO pick up on the overall sypnotics berfore any model and then it seems to go haywire within 3 days of the event. I am probably wrong and just have my weenie goggles fogged attm. TIA for your thoughts on this! I think its been said by several mets before, but the main advantage many believe the Euro has over the GFS is in the way it makes its initial analysis of the global atmosphere. Thus when you go out in time from that analysis as errors multiply, the model with the best analysis combined with the primitive equations will end up being more accurate. This advantage normally shows up best in the middle to long range. Within 72 hours, there not really a major discernible advantage the Euro has over the GFS, as least from my experience. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
georgiawx11 Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 Latest HPC map gives Atlanta at least a 10% probability of 4 or more inches of snow, whereas earlier it was giving Atlanta at least a 70% probability. I wonder if FFC will stick with their forecast of 3-5 inches of snow for Metro Atlanta ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rankin5150 Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 Looks like the boundry layers are a smudge colder and cyclogenis closer to the coast. This may help out Western Carolina. http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/nam/06/images/nam_pcp_072l.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cheeznado Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 Latest HPC map gives Atlanta at least a 10% probability of 4 or more inches of snow, whereas earlier it was giving Atlanta at least a 70% probability. I wonder if FFC will stick with their forecast of 3-5 inches of snow for Metro Atlanta ? That is strange actually, not what I would have done. I still think 3-5" is a perfectly reasonable guess for ATL. In fact the 06Z WSI WRF model just came in and has a solid 6" from about ATL north. I have given up on a huge storm, but 4-6" would suit me just fine, and someone could easily get a couple inches more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rankin5150 Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 That is strange actually, not what I would have done. I still think 3-5" is a perfectly reasonable guess for ATL. In fact the 06Z WSI WRF model just came in and has a solid 6" from about ATL north. I have given up on a huge storm, but 4-6" would suit me just fine, and someone could easily get a couple inches more. i wonder if they are taking temperature profiles into account? What are your soundings through the event? GSP just changed my grid forecast and have us as snow for Sun night thru Monday evening, then a change over to sn/ip and then tapering to freezing rain after midnight. This reminds me of Jan 1988 in so many ways. While I have ya, didnt you all pick up 6" from the 88 storm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
georgiawx11 Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 i wonder if they are taking temperature profiles into account? What are your soundings through the event? GSP just changed my grid forecast and have us as snow for Sun night thru Monday evening, then a change over to sn/ip and then tapering to freezing rain after midnight. This reminds me of Jan 1988 in so many ways. While I have ya, didnt you all pick up 6" from the 88 storm? I believe KATL got mostly Sleet/Freezing Rain in Jan 1988. It stayed in the mid 20s all day but this time it's forecast to get into the mid 30s. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cheeznado Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 i wonder if they are taking temperature profiles into account? What are your soundings through the event? GSP just changed my grid forecast and have us as snow for Sun night thru Monday evening, then a change over to sn/ip and then tapering to freezing rain after midnight. This reminds me of Jan 1988 in so many ways. While I have ya, didnt you all pick up 6" from the 88 storm? No we had a ton of sleet. I think it will change over here but there will be several hours of Mod-heavy snow, enough for the 4-6" forecast to verify. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lilj4425 Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 i wonder if they are taking temperature profiles into account? What are your soundings through the event? GSP just changed my grid forecast and have us as snow for Sun night thru Monday evening, then a change over to sn/ip and then tapering to freezing rain after midnight. This reminds me of Jan 1988 in so many ways. While I have ya, didnt you all pick up 6" from the 88 storm? Rodney Hinson, a meteorologist with the National Weather Service, said snow is expected to begin falling in the Upstate around midnight Sunday and continue through Monday and into early Tuesday. Hinson said weather models show that the storm could produce 3 inches to 4 inches of snow on Monday, with a varying amount of sleet mixed in depending on the track of a low-pressure system expected to move up from Florida. Hinson said concerns that the looming storm could be a repeat of the record-setting storm in early January 1988 are unfounded. “It (the new storm system) was looking similar to the one in 1988 on Thursday, but then it changed on Friday,” he said. Source: http://www.goupstate.com/article/20110108/ARTICLES/101081009/1083/ARTICLES?Title=Snow-storm-rumbling-toward-Spartanburg-could-dump-4-inches I knew it sounded too good to be true. I'll be lucky to see an inch now. A warm layer will probably develop over my area anyways. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cheeznado Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 Rodney Hinson, a meteorologist with the National Weather Service, said snow is expected to begin falling in the Upstate around midnight Sunday and continue through Monday and into early Tuesday. Hinson said weather models show that the storm could produce 3 inches to 4 inches of snow on Monday, with a varying amount of sleet mixed in depending on the track of a low-pressure system expected to move up from Florida. Hinson said concerns that the looming storm could be a repeat of the record-setting storm in early January 1988 are unfounded. “It (the new storm system) was looking similar to the one in 1988 on Thursday, but then it changed on Friday,” he said. Source: http://www.goupstate...d-dump-4-inches I knew it sounded too good to be true. I'll be lucky to see an inch now. A warm layer will probably develop over my area anyways. This makes no sense, since here is the 4AM package for GSP: SUNDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY. SNOW LIKELY...MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. MODERATE SNOW ACCUMULATION POSSIBLE. LOWS IN THE MID 20S. NORTHEAST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH. CHANCE OF SNOW 70 PERCENT. .MONDAY...SNOW LIKELY IN THE MORNING...THEN SNOW AND SLEET IN THE AFTERNOON. ADDITIONAL HEAVY SNOW ACCUMULATION. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 30S. NORTHEAST WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH. CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION 90 PERCENT. .MONDAY NIGHT...LIGHT FREEZING RAIN AND VERY LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE LIKELY. SLEET AND SNOW. ADDITIONAL LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATION. LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S. CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION 80 PERCENT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lilj4425 Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 This makes no sense, since here is the 4AM package for GSP: SUNDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY. SNOW LIKELY...MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. MODERATE SNOW ACCUMULATION POSSIBLE. LOWS IN THE MID 20S. NORTHEAST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH. CHANCE OF SNOW 70 PERCENT. .MONDAY...SNOW LIKELY IN THE MORNING...THEN SNOW AND SLEET IN THE AFTERNOON. ADDITIONAL HEAVY SNOW ACCUMULATION. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 30S. NORTHEAST WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH. CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION 90 PERCENT. .MONDAY NIGHT...LIGHT FREEZING RAIN AND VERY LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE LIKELY. SLEET AND SNOW. ADDITIONAL LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATION. LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S. CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION 80 PERCENT. Yeah, it says 6-10 inches here: http://forecast.weat...ter+Storm+Watch Weird. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
georgiawx11 Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 Cheez,do you think any areas in GA could get a crippling ice storm or do you think the QPF will be light enough so that it wont be that bad ? I've notice that FFC has most areas from Atlanta southward rise above freezing on Monday afternoon so I would think that things would gradually improve as Monday goes on. They were comparing this storm to Snowjam 82 and also the Blizzard of 93 in the Atlanta media, and I just don't see that happening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cheeznado Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 Cheez,do you think any areas in GA could get a crippling ice storm or do you think the QPF will be light enough so that it wont be that bad ? I've notice that FFC has most areas from Atlanta southward rise above freezing on Monday afternoon so I would think that things would gradually improve as Monday goes on. They were comparing this storm to Snowjam 82 and also the Blizzard of 93 in the Atlanta media, and I just don't see that happening. Not here in ATL, the dry slot will move in just as the precip changes to ZR. The area south to Macon and maybe even south of there could really get a bad one though.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rankin5150 Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 No we had a ton of sleet. I think it will change over here but there will be several hours of Mod-heavy snow, enough for the 4-6" forecast to verify. Gotcha! GSP has us under a Winter storm watch for 4-6" with 1/10" of ice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cheeznado Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 Going to bed- GFS still has the odd precip hole over AL and west GA- .5-.7 over east GA and SC. Not sure I buy that precip depiction. 06Z GGEM looks pretty good, but not fantastic. 4-6" forecast on track- I will take it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lilj4425 Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 Good morning everyone! Gotta get up early and see what happened overnight. I hear a lot of despair right now. Don't. All of you know what happened with the Christmas Storm and how it kinda fell apart and disappeared a few days before it happened. I think the model Gods will be in our favor today. We're still in the sweet spot here so for right now we're good as gold. I like the look of this RUC loop, it shows the low digging into TX and the big low over NE starting to lift which is what Phil said needed to happen. http://www.daculawea...00mb_hour_1.php Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sluggo Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 Good morning everyone! Gotta get up early and see what happened overnight. I hear a lot of despair right now. Don't. All of you know what happened with the Christmas Storm and how it kinda fell apart and disappeared a few days before it happened. I think the model Gods will be in our favor today. I like the look of this RUC loop, it shows the low digging into TX and the big low over NE starting to lift which is what Phil said needed to happen. http://www.daculawea...00mb_hour_1.php Brand new weenie here w/ my first post. and would like to say, "Howdie!". I have been on a crash course researching all the nomenclature associated w/ all the weather abbreviations A wealth of information on wx and all the factors that drive these winter storms.....I tip my hat to all the pros...thank you for your time to explain things on the board. I have a question with regards to your link.....what do the X's & N's mean with the associated vortexes (lows)?? I understand the mb gradients for the 500 mb level of our atmosphere (about 18,000 ft IIRC) From years past, basically all I know that here in NC for major winter SN precip, we need cold air in place with a surface high over the Ohio Valley and a strong surface low off of the coast of SC tracking NNE. BTW,,,I like the low over the NE moving out too for this event........I'll stay out of the way and off the posting as things develop as the board is going into storm mode. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 The latest GFS snow loop shows the precip further north and lighter. http://www.daculaweather.com/gfs_snow_06.php while the 3:35am NAM still paints a pretty picture http://www.daculaweather.com/nam_se_snow_06.php You can see the update times in my sig Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 6:15 am CAE AFD says high confidence in freezing rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RevDodd Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 Brand new weenie here w/ my first post. and would like to say, "Howdie!". I have been on a crash course researching all the nomenclature associated w/ all the weather abbreviations A wealth of information on wx and all the factors that drive these winter storms.....I tip my hat to all the pros...thank you for your time to explain things on the board. I have a question with regards to your link.....what do the X's & N's mean with the associated vortexes (lows)?? I understand the mb gradients for the 500 mb level of our atmosphere (about 18,000 ft IIRC) From years past, basically all I know that here in NC for major winter SN precip, we need cold air in place with a surface high over the Ohio Valley and a strong surface low off of the coast of SC tracking NNE. BTW,,,I like the low over the NE moving out too for this event........I'll stay out of the way and off the posting as things develop as the board is going into storm mode. Good morning and welcome to the fight! The X means the low is closed. N means it's open. Best of luck with the coming fray! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sluggo Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 Brand new weenie here w/ my first post. and would like to say, "Howdie!". I have been on a crash course researching all the nomenclature associated w/ all the weather abbreviations A wealth of information on wx and all the factors that drive these winter storms.....I tip my hat to all the pros...thank you for your time to explain things on the board. I have a question with regards to your link.....what do the X's & N's mean with the associated vortexes (lows)?? I understand the mb gradients for the 500 mb level of our atmosphere (about 18,000 ft IIRC) From years past, basically all I know that here in NC for major winter SN precip, we need cold air in place with a surface high over the Ohio Valley and a strong surface low off of the coast of SC tracking NNE. BTW,,,I like the low over the NE moving out too for this event........I'll stay out of the way and off the posting as things develop as the board is going into storm mode. Never mind.....sorry ('X' = vorticity maximums) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 New RAH and BMX AFD Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 The latest GFS snow loop shows the precip further north and lighter. http://www.daculawea...gfs_snow_06.php while the 3:35am NAM still paints a pretty picture http://www.daculawea..._se_snow_06.php You can see the update times in my sig Looks better for RDU but if we're going to have trouble with temps I'd rather members in GA/SC/AL get the snow...No need for a nasty mixed bag with power outages due to freezing rain...I want to watch the Auburn vs Oregon game Monday night. Those snow maps are really really deceiving...the temps are clearly not there, yet the snowfall map verbatim gives RDU 5" on the 06z GFS...I guess it's because the storm is faster so it dumps more snow before the transition takes place? Either way, I like the "trend" giving RDU more QPF. I haven't been model watching too much as I've been out of town, so I have to play catch up at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 Wow good to see I didn't stay up for the Euro...clearly the outliers at this point. I still love the setup and the slight differences in QPF are to be expected right now between the NAM and GFS. One good thing is that now 18z/00z/6z all look pretty similar outside of the 00z NAM when it comes to the qpf. 12z should really be telling and hopefully it swings our way. Anyways this is just showing how much potential this storm has which is why GSPs and any others AFD should be talking WWA and WSW for their CWAs. There is always potential for bust but it just seems pretty low. IIRC models also dampen the S/W but it usually comes in stronger most of the time so I really am not buying what these weaker models are selling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.