lilj4425 Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 GFS gives me over a foot while the Euro gives me less than three inches. Good to see model consistency. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 Dont shoot the messenger please. Theres a 1016 off CHS at 78. Light precip over GA and Carolinas, a little more near the coast. The 850 line works north at 78 most of SC is quite warm, and only north of 40 in NC is at or below zero. By 84, the coastal is developing for eastern NC, more precip there but I haven't seen total qpf in the last few panels. It doesnt' look good for the Upstate or western piedmont and foothills for sure, but the eastern sections may get a bit of ice if the coastal develops (or even snow) if the cold wraps back in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 rest from hpc..not including the 0z euro but probably won't change ...CYCLONE TRACKING ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH THROUGH THE PERIOD... PREFERENCE: FROM 12Z SUN TO 00Z TUE...3/5 GFS/UKMET TO 1/5 EACH NAM/12Z ECMWF AFTER 00Z TUE...NAM/GFS/UKMET/12Z ECMWF THE 12Z ECMWF IS STRONGER ALOFT THAN BOTH THE NAM/GFS TRACKING ACROSS TX/LA/AR/MO...SUPPORTING ITS MORE NORTHWARD AXIS OF QPF...AND WHILE PLAUSIBLE IS CONSIDERED LESS LIKELY THAN MOST OTHER SOLUTIONS. MEANWHILE...THE NAM IS THE WEAKEST OF THE THREE INCLUDING A MORE SUPPRESSED APPEARANCE ENTERING THE GULF COAST REGION SUPPORTING ITS MORE SOUTHWARD AXIS OF QPF. FINALLY THE GFS IS CLOSEST TO THE DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE MEANS...SHOWS EXCELLENT CONTINUITY...AND AGREES WITH THE UKMET. THUS...THE PREFERENCE IS FOR A GFS/UKMET-LIKE SOLUTION SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...WITH BOTH THE ECMWF AND NAM CONSIDERED PLAUSIBLE BUT LESS PROBABLE. BY 84 HRS...THE MODELS CONVERGE WITH A SURFACE LOW NEAR THE SC COAST. REFER TO THE QPFPFD AND QPFHSD FOR MORE INFORMATION ON PRECIPITATION FORECASTS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 Talk about a stab in the back, the coastal is developing on HAT and decent snow in Richmond looks like near DC now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 Talk about a stab in the back, the coastal is developing on HAT and decent snow in Richmond looks like near DC now. Yeah, it looks like DC gets the most qpf so far....You just have to laugh sometimes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tazaroo Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 I don't get it. Everything sounded better through 48 or 54 with the3 waves seperating which should mean less shearing our SW, Southern Sw more amplified and good placement and then POOF quicker than Hudini. Man, I hate to have to hang my hat on the GFS and UKIE but thats all I really have this way right now that look pretty good and the Euro sounds horrid this way and not great even for you guys south of me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 RIC and DC are right on the edge of .50", most of the areas in the SE have had .25" or less. The coastal develops in time to get them, basically after circumnavigating the interior southeast. So, northern Texa and Ark to western Miss. get a good snow, then the Midatlantic. Theres a few inches or a cople , maybe 1" in some for the rest of us. NY and New England is geting hit hard at 108. Well lets see what tomorrow brings. This isn't the end all solution I'm sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snoebuck Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 I'm going with HPC and Lookout, if I get even close to half of what Bufkit gives for GSP, I'll be more than happy! rest from hpc..not including the 0z euro but probably won't change ...CYCLONE TRACKING ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH THROUGH THE PERIOD... PREFERENCE: FROM 12Z SUN TO 00Z TUE...3/5 GFS/UKMET TO 1/5 EACH NAM/12Z ECMWF AFTER 00Z TUE...NAM/GFS/UKMET/12Z ECMWF THE 12Z ECMWF IS STRONGER ALOFT THAN BOTH THE NAM/GFS TRACKING ACROSS TX/LA/AR/MO...SUPPORTING ITS MORE NORTHWARD AXIS OF QPF...AND WHILE PLAUSIBLE IS CONSIDERED LESS LIKELY THAN MOST OTHER SOLUTIONS. MEANWHILE...THE NAM IS THE WEAKEST OF THE THREE INCLUDING A MORE SUPPRESSED APPEARANCE ENTERING THE GULF COAST REGION SUPPORTING ITS MORE SOUTHWARD AXIS OF QPF. FINALLY THE GFS IS CLOSEST TO THE DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE MEANS...SHOWS EXCELLENT CONTINUITY...AND AGREES WITH THE UKMET. THUS...THE PREFERENCE IS FOR A GFS/UKMET-LIKE SOLUTION SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...WITH BOTH THE ECMWF AND NAM CONSIDERED PLAUSIBLE BUT LESS PROBABLE. BY 84 HRS...THE MODELS CONVERGE WITH A SURFACE LOW NEAR THE SC COAST. REFER TO THE QPFPFD AND QPFHSD FOR MORE INFORMATION ON PRECIPITATION FORECASTS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dsaur Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 last year was a bitter disappointment , and a nail biter here. Once, I got warm nosed by a single degree, (dec 18) which turned the 1.4" liquid equivalent into mostly sleet and ZR. And then twice I got dryslotted very prematurely (convection robbed). And once it snowed in 4 sides of me during the day, and rained here, with some wet snow mixed in (March). Been a lot of bad breaks here, but I was within spitting distance of the good stuff. Man, I can't see being disappointed in 1 and quarter liquid in sleet and Z That seems a massive weather statement. I guess I need to move up there and enjoy snow on a regular basis to understand you, lol. As my sleet thing is strange to you. I keep thinking this thing will trend colder if it is only .75 or so. And more icy if it goes over 1 inch. T Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 For NC, it all comes down to the northern stream energy. If that doesn't make it here in time to reenergize our dying shortwave and surface low, we can count on getting next to nothing. Once that is fully in the raob network, we should see a model consensus develop. I'm not sure we'll get that until 00z tomorrow night. No way it digs far enough south to have a noteworthy impact in NC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pilotwx Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 My peeps in the south don't sweat it Euro great model 5 days out, horrible the closer you get! We are in the game if the euro showed this solution 2 or 3 days ago I would say done deal. Just like Christmas it lost the storm only to bring it back 24hrs before and the GFS was the first to bring the storm back @ christmas. That is why you blend the models use the EURO 4 - 8 days outs skip to GFS 2 -3 days out. Usually day 3 and 4 are just a mess and play with your emotions! Watch! the set-up is still there and has not gone anywhere. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
georgiawx11 Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 My peeps in the south don't sweat it Euro great model 5 days out, horrible the closer you get! We are in the game if the euro showed this solution 2 or 3 days ago I would say done deal. Just like Christmas it lost the storm only to bring it back 24hrs before and the GFS was the first to bring the storm back @ christmas. That is why you blend the models use the EURO 4 - 8 days outs skip to GFS 2 -3 days out. Usually day 3 and 4 are just a mess and play with your emotions! Watch! the set-up is still there and has not gone anywhere. Yeah but isn't the GFS trending in the wrong direction for many areas ? Showing a dry slot in AL and potentially into GA ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 From my eye.. in line with the NAM & GGEM, the 00z Euro now gives CAE snow more than ice. .71 total qpf .55+ probably all snow .16 mixed bag. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pilotwx Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 Love him or hate him JB says GFS model too far out to sea. Thinks be closer for us however still thinks Northeast gets it just like he has said for a week now. If you look at the ridging along the coast you can see what he is talking about. The WV you can see it also, you can see a trough that is starting to sharpen up , the low over the NE is backing up and causing this. http://www.goes.noaa.gov/GSSLOOPS/ecwv.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
georgiawx11 Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 Ok this gives me a little more hope. This is what Dr. Tim Coleman from ABC 33/40 in Bham says : With all 4 models in, about the same regarding north and central Alabama…4″ in most places, up to 8″ in isolated locations, especially in higher terrain of east Alabama. This one will be a school-closer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
POWERSTROKE Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 If you look at the ridging along the coast you can see what he is talking about. The WV you can see it also! He still didn't throw us a bone or anything. All week he has said not much here and today said models too far south with snow line. We will see. He loves his Northeast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
POWERSTROKE Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 Ok this gives me a little more hope. This is what Dr. Tim Coleman from ABC 33/40 in Bham says : With all 4 models in, about the same regarding north and central Alabama…4″ in most places, up to 8″ in isolated locations, especially in higher terrain of east Alabama. This one will be a school-closer How much snow equipment is there in Atlanta? Just curious how they will handle it. Too far for me. hard to imagine snow there, I was there in Aug to watch braves and it 98degrees. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DLI4SCwx Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 From my eye.. in line with the NAM & GGEM, the 00z Euro now gives CAE snow more than ice. .77 total qpf .54+ probably all snow .23 mixed bag. We got 3 of them siding with less ice, let's see if we can't get the GFS to do the same for us. I just want it to trend colder, so we have less to worry about the icing problem. Also saw elsewhere a model called the Millersville WREF. Not familiar with it, but it looks more like the NAM as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 0 UTC GFS snowfall forecast map Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 TWENTY INCHES just due east of KAND(Roughly around Belton, SC): 110110/0300Z 51 09004KT 31.3F 0:1| 0.0|| 0.0 0.000|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00 0| 0| 0 110110/0600Z 54 07007KT 26.2F SNOW 11:1| 0.3|| 0.3 0.031|| 0.03 0.00|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00 100| 0| 0 110110/0900Z 57 04008KT 24.4F SNOW 16:1| 3.1|| 3.5 0.197|| 0.23 0.00|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00 100| 0| 0 110110/1200Z 60 05012KT 23.5F SNOW 18:1| 7.8||11.3 0.429|| 0.66 0.00|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00 100| 0| 0 ----------------------------------------------+----++-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+--- 110110/1500Z 63 05014KT 23.4F SNOW 19:1| 7.1||18.4 0.378|| 1.04 0.00|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00 100| 0| 0 110110/1800Z 66 05014KT 24.3F SNOW 7:1| 1.6||20.0 0.224|| 1.26 0.00|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00 100| 0| 0 110110/2100Z 69 05016KT 26.2F FZDZ 0:1| 0.0||20.0 0.106|| 1.37 0.00|| 0.00 0.11|| 0.11 0| 0|100 110111/0000Z 72 05017KT 28.4F FZDZ 0:1| 0.0||20.0 0.071|| 1.44 0.00|| 0.00 0.07|| 0.19 0| 0|100 18.5" in Anderson, SC: 110110/0600Z 54 06007KT 25.7F SNOW 10:1| 0.4|| 0.4 0.039|| 0.04 0.00|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00 100| 0| 0 110110/0900Z 57 04009KT 24.1F SNOW 16:1| 3.4|| 3.8 0.220|| 0.26 0.00|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00 100| 0| 0 110110/1200Z 60 05012KT 23.4F SNOW 18:1| 7.7||11.6 0.417|| 0.68 0.00|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00 100| 0| 0 ----------------------------------------------+----++-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+--- 110110/1500Z 63 05014KT 23.4F SNOW 17:1| 5.9||17.5 0.339|| 1.02 0.00|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00 100| 0| 0 110110/1800Z 66 06013KT 24.4F SNOW 6:1| 1.0||18.5 0.181|| 1.20 0.00|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00 100| 0| 0 110110/2100Z 69 06016KT 26.2F FZDZ 0:1| 0.0||18.5 0.075|| 1.27 0.00|| 0.00 0.08|| 0.08 0| 0|100 110111/0000Z 72 05015KT 28.0F FZDZ 0:1| 0.0||18.5 0.047|| 1.32 0.00|| 0.00 0.05|| 0.13 0| 0|100 ----------------------------------------------+----++-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+--- 110111/0300Z 75 05015KT 28.2F FZDZ 0:1| 0.0||18.5 0.028|| 1.35 0.00|| 0.00 0.03|| 0.16 0| 0|100 Nam bufkit gives athens 10 inches and the gfs gives athens 12.2 inches. I'm probably closer to 15 here judging on the gfs totals. fwiw, gfs gives atlanta 6 inches and while the nam gives atlanta 12.2 inches. Also of note, the gfs drops athens and anderson to ZERO thursday night/friday morning after highs in the low to mid 20s. Might be a bit extreme though as gfs sometimes apparently goes too low when snow is on the ground. I recall it doing something similar last year in nc after one of those snows and that didn't pan out. Then again the airmass wasn't as cold though. If I had to guess, probably mid single digits is more likely. btw, here is the link to see the bufkit for those who don't have it http://www.meteor.iastate.edu/~ckarsten/bufkit/data/index.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cheeznado Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 RIC and DC are right on the edge of .50", most of the areas in the SE have had .25" or less. The coastal develops in time to get them, basically after circumnavigating the interior southeast. So, northern Texa and Ark to western Miss. get a good snow, then the Midatlantic. Theres a few inches or a cople , maybe 1" in some for the rest of us. NY and New England is geting hit hard at 108. Well lets see what tomorrow brings. This isn't the end all solution I'm sure. Hey- this is not set in stone because the Euro says so- our WSI WRF model has .75 all the way to you, I doubt seriously that the Euro is 100% right and the other models all wrong. Even if you split the differences it is 3-5" - everyone needs to chill out about the Euro- at least for now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 Hey- this is not set in stone because the Euro says so- our WSI WRF model has .75 all the way to you, I doubt seriously that the Euro is 100% right and the other models all wrong. Even if you split the differences it is 3-5" - everyone needs to chill out about the Euro- at least for now. Not to just dismiss the one model which doesn't show the most but it is the clear outlier with respect to totals right now. 0z ggem came in wetter than the 12z run so it gives me more confidence the euro probably isn't right. Oh, one other thing, once we drop below freezing sunday and into the 20s, the gfs bufkit does not raise the temp out of the 20s here all the way until at least NEXT saturday... with the exception of a few hours tuesday where we get up to a whopping 33. That is impressive if accurate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 Wow, Asheville is forecasted to get like 7 more inches over the 3 thats fallen already. haha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 Here is the problem... our beloved southern stream is dampening out too quickly. When you have a system like that move directly into an area of confluence, you get cyclolysis rather than cyclogenesis. Thus, you need another mechanism than merely just the shortwave to generate precipitation. In these semi overrunning setups, this normally comes in the form of strong divergence from a jet streak. This is mainly what enhanced precipitation during the January 1988 snowstorm. At the beginning of the nam and the euro, we see this jet attempt to setup at 42 hours on the nam. However, it can't advance farther north, because of the 200mb low to the north which forces the flow to be diverted. Even though this feature weakens, its not fast enough to allow the flow to continue to advance north. Thus at some point, the 200mb flow is no longer divergent for the advancement of precipitation, and it starts to get eaten away due to evaporational cooling in the very dry air below. The first image is from Allan's research on the January 1988 snowstorm across the Carolinas. You can see the jet streak is in perfect position to allow most of the Carolinas, NE GA, and Tennessee to enjoy strong divergence and blossoming precipitation from the right entrance region this jet-streak region. There is even some secondary enhancement from a jet-streak to the west from the left exit region. Now at first, the nam seems to show a similar setup starting. However, its that pesky 200mb low to the northeast thats not far enough out of the way. Still though, the jet is in the right position to allow Alabama and Mississippi to get in on the large amounts of precipitation by being in the right entrance region of the jet-streak However, by the time it makes its way to the Carolinas... the jet-streak has fallen apart to the north, and we are left with a SE to NE oriented jet, once that puts northern portion South Carolina and all of North Carolina on the left entrance region... an area of convergence aloft. This is why our precipitation evaporates, because this promotes divergence at the surface and that plus the evaporational cooling that will likely have to take place before the precipitation gets there will eat away at our precipitation shield. So what can the models do to avoid such a solution. First of all, you want to hope and pray that that stupid 200mb low starts booking it northeast... NOW! This along with a stronger southern stream shortwave will improve our precipitation prospects for SC and NC. A stronger s/w will help to force the jet-streak higher and try to fight th northerly flow near the 200mb low Folks in GA and Alabama, you are in much better shape, mainly because the jet-streak is still able to setup well for you folks before the shortwave moves further north. So keep watching the trends! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pilotwx Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 If you look up to the NW part of the US you can see another one of our disturbances coming down, it is just leaving the rockies and Canada. The 6z and more than likely the 12z runs will be a lot different due to sampling properly http://www.goes.noaa.gov/GSSLOOPS/ecwv.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 On a brighter note... the 00z GFS ensembles are still wetter than the operational run. Almost all of NC is above .5" in precip... while most of SC is .75 or higher. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rankin5150 Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 On a brighter note... the 00z GFS ensembles are still wetter than the operational run. Almost all of NC is above .5" in precip... while most of SC is .75 or higher. Where in the hell is your RED TAG? I love your posts and you bring a lot to the table! Thanks for the write-up a couple of posts ago. Question...this timeframe (as of tonight's 0Z model runs) should be shifting more emphasis to the GFS and NAM anyway. Correct? From a verification/bias standpoint, I hear that the EURO looses its luster from 3 days to showtime. Am I correct with that statement? I always see the EURO pick up on the overall sypnotics berfore any model and then it seems to go haywire within 3 days of the event. I am probably wrong and just have my weenie goggles fogged attm. TIA for your thoughts on this! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cheeznado Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 For the diehards left- (I have an excuse, I am working) The NAM at 30 is a but stronger, speed same. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rankin5150 Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 06z NAM looks stronger at hr 36 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 For the diehards left- (I have an excuse, I am working) The NAM at 30 is a but stronger, speed same. 06z NAM looks stronger at hr 36 The 200mb low looks a bit more progressive as well, which is always a good sign. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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