The Jan 9-10 Storm Part 3

[MillzPirate]

the rate that the qpf dries up in eastern NC is something Ive never seen before when a low takes this track... you go from over an inch near charlotte to less than .25 near ILM? strange

[FoothillsNC]

Hopefully this too doesn't end up a fail like this week has.

after virtually ever winter storm since 2004 has ended up way different for my local area than expected, I'm keeping my own hopes low for my county, atleast where I'm at. I 've seen some mighty strange things happen, you name it , its happened, including snowing on all 4 sides of me while raining here (happened twice recently). Alway now, my biggest problem is getting solid moisture to come in here, with any duration, and intensity. Thats really, really been missing for a very long time.

TWENTY INCHES just due east of KAND(Roughly around Belton, SC):

110110/0300Z  51  09004KT  31.3F       	0:1| 0.0|| 0.0    0.000|| 0.00 	0.00|| 0.00    0.00|| 0.00 	0|  0|  0
110110/0600Z  54  07007KT  26.2F  SNOW    11:1| 0.3|| 0.3    0.031|| 0.03 	0.00|| 0.00    0.00|| 0.00   100|  0|  0
110110/0900Z  57  04008KT  24.4F  SNOW    16:1| 3.1|| 3.5    0.197|| 0.23 	0.00|| 0.00    0.00|| 0.00   100|  0|  0
110110/1200Z  60  05012KT  23.5F  SNOW    18:1| 7.8||11.3    0.429|| 0.66 	0.00|| 0.00    0.00|| 0.00   100|  0|  0
----------------------------------------------+----++-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---
110110/1500Z  63  05014KT  23.4F  SNOW    19:1| 7.1||18.4    0.378|| 1.04 	0.00|| 0.00    0.00|| 0.00   100|  0|  0
110110/1800Z  66  05014KT  24.3F  SNOW 	7:1| 1.6||20.0    0.224|| 1.26 	0.00|| 0.00    0.00|| 0.00   100|  0|  0
110110/2100Z  69  05016KT  26.2F  FZDZ 	0:1| 0.0||20.0    0.106|| 1.37 	0.00|| 0.00    0.11|| 0.11 	0|  0|100
110111/0000Z  72  05017KT  28.4F  FZDZ 	0:1| 0.0||20.0    0.071|| 1.44 	0.00|| 0.00    0.07|| 0.19 	0|  0|100

18.5" in Anderson, SC:

110110/0600Z  54  06007KT  25.7F  SNOW    10:1| 0.4|| 0.4    0.039|| 0.04 	0.00|| 0.00    0.00|| 0.00   100|  0|  0
110110/0900Z  57  04009KT  24.1F  SNOW    16:1| 3.4|| 3.8    0.220|| 0.26 	0.00|| 0.00    0.00|| 0.00   100|  0|  0
110110/1200Z  60  05012KT  23.4F  SNOW    18:1| 7.7||11.6    0.417|| 0.68 	0.00|| 0.00    0.00|| 0.00   100|  0|  0
----------------------------------------------+----++-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---
110110/1500Z  63  05014KT  23.4F  SNOW    17:1| 5.9||17.5    0.339|| 1.02 	0.00|| 0.00    0.00|| 0.00   100|  0|  0
110110/1800Z  66  06013KT  24.4F  SNOW 	6:1| 1.0||18.5    0.181|| 1.20 	0.00|| 0.00    0.00|| 0.00   100|  0|  0
110110/2100Z  69  06016KT  26.2F  FZDZ 	0:1| 0.0||18.5    0.075|| 1.27 	0.00|| 0.00    0.08|| 0.08 	0|  0|100
110111/0000Z  72  05015KT  28.0F  FZDZ 	0:1| 0.0||18.5    0.047|| 1.32 	0.00|| 0.00    0.05|| 0.13 	0|  0|100
----------------------------------------------+----++-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---
110111/0300Z  75  05015KT  28.2F  FZDZ 	0:1| 0.0||18.5    0.028|| 1.35 	0.00|| 0.00    0.03|| 0.16 	0|  0|100

I'd love to see Atlanta to the Upstate get it. Out of all the places in the South that can reasonably expect a big snow every now and then, they are probably the most overdue, especially around the Upstate.

[georgiawx11]

after virtually ever winter storm since 2004 has ended up way different for my local area than expected, I'm keeping my own hopes low for my county, atleast where I'm at. I 've seen some mighty strange things happen, you name it , its happened, including snowing on all 4 sides of me while raining here (happened twice recently). Alway now, my biggest problem is getting solid moisture to come in here, with any duration, and intensity. Thats really, really been missing for a very long time.

I'd love to see Atlanta to the Upstate get it. Out of all the places in the South that can reasonably expect a big snow every now and then, they are probably the most overdue, especially around the Upstate.

I think birmingham and nashville are way more due than Atlanta or the Upstate. Nashville is in a major snow drought (relative to normal).

[eyewall]

after virtually ever winter storm since 2004 has ended up way different for my local area than expected, I'm keeping my own hopes low for my county, atleast where I'm at. I 've seen some mighty strange things happen, you name it , its happened, including snowing on all 4 sides of me while raining here (happened twice recently). Alway now, my biggest problem is getting solid moisture to come in here, with any duration, and intensity. Thats really, really been missing for a very long time.

I'd love to see Atlanta to the Upstate get it. Out of all the places in the South that can reasonably expect a big snow every now and then, they are probably the most overdue, especially around the Upstate.

Yeah I honestly can't remember the last time we had a high confidence winter weather forecast in NC outside of the mountains.

[Brick Tamland]

This is a wetter run for NC than the 18z run. These are 72 hour amounts, excluding tonights bustorama amounts that were just model fantasy.

Thru 72 hours it is likely snow for RDU, at 72 hours we reach 0.18C at 850, but it is likely overcome by high rates.

By 78 hours, the warm nose is a bit more pronounced up to 0.83C at 850, so likely a sleet sounding but close enough to make me think snow is possible if the model is just slightly too strong with the warm nose. It is certainly freezing rain by 84 hours.

So taken literally I would see a couple inches of snow, a signficant amount of sleet and certainly some freezing train to end.

Sounds like this is going to be one big ol mess and not a nice snowstorm.

[snowflake29684]

Robert how reliable is bufkit at this point though?

[magpiemaniac]

Well, I feel a little better after viewing the 00z GFS bufkit for GSO. It's 6.2" of snow for Monday. If that verifies, I'd have no right to complain.

[tarheelwx]

I just read the WRAL forecast and it started on Saturday (I think it was updated since it started on Saturday). Anyway, it said there was a serious lack of a cold air source and it was looking less and less like a snowstorm and more and more like an ice storm. A little snow to start out Monday afternoon, but transitioning to zr shortly thereafter through Tuesday morning. No mention of qpf.

TW

[BullCityWx]

Robert how reliable is bufkit at this point though?

The only thing bufkit does is take data off the GFS so you're at the mercy of the model itself.

[feloniousq]

Bufkit for RDU has 3.8 inches of snow and then almost 0.4" of ZR. Snow starts 11 AM Monday, switch to ZR happens around 11 PM.

[Brick Tamland]

I am trying to understand why Greg Fishel is saying it's not going to be anything and other mets here are saying we'll at least get a coupke inches of snow followed by ice. And it looks like the models are trending more and more towards there being a big mess here. It's like two different worlds.

[magpiemaniac]

Hey that's great. Thanks for running and posting. Any sleet or zr?

TW

Looks to be all snow from 10am Monday to 1am Tuesday. Transition to freezing drizzle afterwards through early Tuesday.

I'd cash in on this and be happy.

[FoothillsNC]

I think birmingham and nashville are way more due than Atlanta or the Upstate. Nashville is in a major snow drought (relative to normal).

I dont' consider BHM to expect to receive a 6" snow every now and then like it happens just north of there. The snow climatology really picks up just north of Atlanta and around the Upstate, where occasionally there used to be a 6" snow. As for Tennessee, I know middle Tenn is in a bad snow drought, but I thought you got a decent few systems last Winter? I know Memphis had the footer march 09 and eastern TN has had a banner 2 years now.

[packbacker]

HPC snippet

HPC Model Discussion

~...CYCLONE TRACKING ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH THROUGH THE PERIOD...

FINALLY THE GFSIS CLOSEST TO THE DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE MEANS...SHOWSEXCELLENT CONTINUITY...AND AGREES WITH THE UKMET. THUS...THEPREFERENCE IS FOR A GFS/UKMET-LIKE SOLUTION SUNDAY INTOMONDAY...WITH BOTH THE ECMWF AND NAM CONSIDERED PLAUSIBLE BUT LESSPROBABLE.~

[rduwx]

I am trying to understand why Greg Fishel is saying it's not going to be anything and other mets here are saying we'll at least get a coupke inches of snow followed by ice. And it looks like the models are trending more and more towards there being a big mess here. It's like two different worlds.

Mets are not saying you are going to get 2" of snow. They are analyzing the 0z gfs. C'mon Brick!

[BullCityWx]

So WildreMann says something negative and hes allowed and continues but if I say something it gets deleted immediately? Eastern half of the state doesnt exist, I forgot

Take it to the banter thread or you may not make it on here to see the storm.

[rduwx]

This is what I mean by it seeming like two different worlds. That would be a big deal here. The roads would be awful.

That is from the 0z gfs...Not a forecast!

[FoothillsNC]

I would say our late January storm last year was about as high confidence of a forecast as you'll ever seen in these parts of NC...especially from 4 days out like it was. Even that one turned into a bit of a disappointment with the fact we verified barely 50% of what almost every model was giving us for qpf. That, along with the warm nose really ruined my chances of breaking my all time record of 7.5". It's pretty sad I've lived here that long and never saw more than that, even in the great January 2000 storm (I lived in Benson, NC for 23 years and we only got around 6" in that one).

last year was a bitter disappointment , and a nail biter here. Once, I got warm nosed by a single degree, (dec 18) which turned the 1.4" liquid equivalent into mostly sleet and ZR. And then twice I got dryslotted very prematurely (convection robbed). And once it snowed in 4 sides of me during the day, and rained here, with some wet snow mixed in (March). Been a lot of bad breaks here, but I was within spitting distance of the good stuff.

[sctvman]

The temperature gradient for this storm could be huge. Here in our area, seven degrees could be the difference between all-rain and perhaps a 3" snow storm. The TV people are calling for mix nearly to the ocean, but no accumulations are listed yet.

I saw the temperatures if there's a heavy snow and that could be unbelievable. I saw 3 degrees in Rock Hill at night on one of the raleighwx models. That would be crippling.

[FoothillsNC]

Euro is out to 18. Good luck to eveyrone, I'm really rooting the big snowstorm for GA, it could be a record breaker for some places. No changes so far.

[FoothillsNC]

24: no changes, its -16 in northern Tenn and most of KY. Light precip in Tex.

[DopplerWx]

The temperature gradient for this storm could be huge. Here in our area, seven degrees could be the difference between all-rain and perhaps a 3" snow storm. The TV people are calling for mix nearly to the ocean, but no accumulations are listed yet.

I saw the temperatures if there's a heavy snow and that could be unbelievable. I saw 3 degrees in Rock Hill at night on one of the raleighwx models. That would be crippling.

Yea I think we will see a mix at least, I really doubt we get anything significant though. Usually when we rely on temps we get rain, but

e will just have to see.

[FoothillsNC]

at 30, the eastern trough may be a litle more east. the trough in the SW is due south of Texas big bend/El paso, precip over the whole state basically.

[FoothillsNC]

at 36, most of La and Texas is in precip. The eastern trough may be a little east of its previous run, maybe.

[FoothillsNC]

at 42. the northeast trough has booked, no doubt about it. The southern Texas trough is sharp and neutral witha lot of precip just up and past th red river.

[FoothillsNC]

precip is further north than all models so far through 48. Most of Ark is in it. the trough is still very sharp in western Miss.

[chapelhillwx]

at 36, most of La and Texas is in precip. The eastern trough may be a little east of its previous run, maybe.

This is the eastern portion that we need to enhance precip for the NE sections, right? Or is it just too late for me to attempt to think?

[FoothillsNC]

also at 48, the zero is Macon to just north of Jackson. At 54, the precip is almost to CAE (light) and most of TN except the northeastern third. the northeast trough has gone well northeast. and the trough in Miss. is very discernable. Theres agood separation in all 3 waves (nw, ne, and south)

At 60, low near mobile and all of Tenn is in precip, but it looks most ly light. By now, most of western GA ha had .25" and up to Nashvllle, and that picks up much more in western Miss and points west. So this looks lighter than GFS.

[FoothillsNC]

at hour 66, its almost vanished in the interior SE. Theres nothing so far in HKY to GSO and most of GA and Tn and western SC have only .10" at that panel

Out to 72. Not much for NC at all. The SW mtns near GA have .25", but GSP to CLT have less. Basically most of GA Al TN and eastern MS have around .25" except near the Gulf coast its more.

[rduwx]

IMO thru 72 hrs the precip has been light. Definitely lighter than what the 0z gfs was showing.