The Jan 9-10 Storm Part 3

[burrel2]

I haven't seen a qpf map for the ukmet, but it looks great at 500mb and the surface low pressure is stronger and a little farther north than the 00z GFS at 60 & 72hrs...

Edit: It also has a snow sounding for extreme Northern GA/SC and all of western NC at 7pm Monday.

[beanskip]

0z RGEM precip field matched MUCH better by 0z GFS than 0z NAM.

RGEM has precip reaching halfway into Arkansas and to the Miss./Tenn. line while NAM precip barely reached at all into Arkansas at 48 hours and leaves top 1/4 of Miss. dry.

[burgertime]

Look at what the snowpack does to temperatures here...there's a raging blizzard over LAKE SUPERIOR and we're well below freezing:

Yep people forget what a real snowpack can do to temps. This would just shut down cities for a few days. Lots of people will be out of work. Also have to worry about the homeless and elderly. If the Euro paints the same picture emergency services should really be getting prepared.

[MotoWeatherman]

dawson what times does it show for ags and cae areas

For AGS is looks like snow sounding at 7am Monday but sleet by 1pm Monday.

For CAE it looks like snow sounding at 7am Monday but sleet/ZR by 1pm Monday and then ZR at 7pm Monday.

For GSP is a snow sounding thru 1pm Monday but changes to sleet before 7pm Monday.

[MotoWeatherman]

GFS looks super cold after this. Has my area of GA below freezing for highs Sat, Sun, Mon, Wed, Thur and Fri.

[MotoWeatherman]

The GFS snowdepth map is amusing to look at as it tries to predict snow melt over time. It shows that I will still have 3" of snow on the ground midday Friday.

That might be possible if everything pans out Sunday night as currently depicted followed by those cold temps.

[Solak]

did he not mention the possibility of ice?

Not that I recall. He pretty much threw in the towel on this one. Even went on to say something along the lines of "Snowlovers will be disappointed".

[Pilotwx]

What is that A 982 low ? That is ridiculous !

Look at what the snowpack does to temperatures here...there's a raging blizzard over LAKE SUPERIOR and we're well below freezing:

[FoothillsNC]

I wouldn't be surprised to see the Euro have the closed low held stronger and further east as it comes across Mississippi and northern Georgia.That has been the theme this Winter with these lows off the west coast I've noticed. All the models have been increasing its discernability for a longer track, and its probably this feature and its associated moisture that gets the area from central/n. Miss to N. Ala, N GA and western SC so hard. Tonights Euro should be telling.

[NCSNOW]

NCSNOW i yield to you, the GFS has really picked up qpf totals for our area but i am still not convinced about the temps yet. all of the models blew it tonight with the clipper. its going to be typical for randolph county. we are right on the line and will either be the jackpot if its cold enough or the screw zone if its not. i am interested in what the euro will say.

I didnt get into tonights deal (looking/studying models e.t.c) like I normally would. Never saw any potential for several reasons. But I did check soundings once and specifically remember last night seeing a sounding not suporting snow in our county. I may have looked at an 18z or 0z run probably of the NAm. Anyway I knew when your in the mid 40's and a west/SW wind it's a waste of time chasing possible .15 qpf.

Monday is a whole different ballgame. The last thing we have to worry about IMO is surface cold air. QPF should be there, pattern/playing field strongly suports. Models until GFS today where painting a dismal picture, just like they did about 84 hours out from the Christmas storm. Its all GFS now until inside 48 hrs, then GFS, NAM,SREF,RUC. Our soundings are in good shape at the moment. Could get some sleet toward the end briefly and most certainly will get freezing drizzle toward the end as dendrite region dries out. It will be fun chasing & trying to figure out this jigsaw puzzle over the weekend, but in the end the weather will do what it wants to do.

[FoothillsNC]

what time is the euro tonite

Its at 1 am. Not so sure I can hang around that long either. Been getting only 3 to 5 hours sleep over the last month.

[Weather Czar]

Its at 1 am. Not so sure I can hang around that long either. Been getting only 3 to 5 hours sleep over the last month.

No need to. Check out the CMC run now. Much better than before and looks more like the GFS.

[MotoWeatherman]

Hitting the sack for the night. Heres to the EURO and 6z runs....:snowman:

[Shawn]

No need to. Check out the CMC run now. Much better than before and looks more like the GFS.

The GGEM is less of an ice event here.. once again.. less precip in NC though.

[Shawn]

How much snow does it put out for Columbia if you can tell?

Thanks!

I just looked at the precip type maps, maybe you can come up with it. They measure in millimeters etc.

http://collaboration.cmc.ec.gc.ca/cmc/cmdn/pcpn_type/pcpn_type_gem_reg.html

[earlwx]

Im curious if we will have the same type of issues with the snow not sticking for an hour or so as we did with the Christmas storm, but I guess not as the models have the temperatures progged as colder, correct?

[FoothillsNC]

Yeah, I hope so too. The NAM isn't exactly alone since the GGEM is holding on still.

i just looked at the GGEM animation and you can see it lighten up and avoid the heavy returns here, basically here to GSP and CLT then reform. Actually my county and a couple around here, which I wouldnt' be surprised , since thats the trend of precip right here. For 12 years.

[eyewall]

Hopefully this too doesn't end up a fail like this week has.

[georgiawx11]

I got upset when I saw that huge dryslot for GA/AL but I really have no reason to complain. I got my seasonal snowfall on Christmas. Best of luck to you guys east and northeast of here.

[georgiawx11]

Is it just me or is the Ukie SLOW with our system? By hr. 72 I'm seeing the low just north of the FL panhandle. Someone correct me if I'm wrong.

Hmm, isn't a low north of the FL panhandle climatologically not in the best position for snow in Atlanta ? Seems a bit far north for a major snow for ATL.

[BullCityWx]

Bufkit obliterates GSP:

110110/0300Z  51  11003KT  29.1F           0:1| 0.0|| 0.0    0.000|| 0.00     0.00|| 0.00    0.00|| 0.00     0|  0|  0
110110/0600Z  54  VRB02KT  28.8F           0:1| 0.0|| 0.0    0.000|| 0.00     0.00|| 0.00    0.00|| 0.00     0|  0|  0
110110/0900Z  57  01005KT  25.0F  SNOW    17:1| 0.9|| 0.9    0.051|| 0.05     0.00|| 0.00    0.00|| 0.00   100|  0|  0
110110/1200Z  60  05010KT  23.2F  SNOW    19:1| 4.7|| 5.6    0.244|| 0.30     0.00|| 0.00    0.00|| 0.00   100|  0|  0
----------------------------------------------+----++-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---
110110/1500Z  63  05012KT  23.2F  SNOW    19:1| 5.4||11.0    0.280|| 0.57     0.00|| 0.00    0.00|| 0.00   100|  0|  0
110110/1800Z  66  04013KT  24.8F  SNOW    10:1| 1.8||12.7    0.177|| 0.75     0.00|| 0.00    0.00|| 0.00   100|  0|  0
110110/2100Z  69  04012KT  25.3F  SNOW     6:1| 0.7||13.4    0.118|| 0.87     0.00|| 0.00    0.00|| 0.00   100|  0|  0
110111/0000Z  72  05015KT  27.5F  FZRA     0:1| 0.0||13.4    0.102|| 0.97     0.00|| 0.00    0.11|| 0.11     0|  0|100
----------------------------------------------+----++-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---
110111/0300Z  75  04013KT  27.7F  FZDZ     0:1| 0.0||13.4    0.091|| 1.06     0.00|| 0.00    0.10|| 0.20     0|  0|100
110111/0600Z  78  03012KT  27.7F  FZDZ     0:1| 0.0||13.4    0.020|| 1.08     0.00|| 0.00    0.02|| 0.22     0|  0|100
110111/0900Z  81  03009KT  24.6F  FZDZ     0:1| 0.0||13.4    0.012|| 1.09     0.00|| 0.00    0.01|| 0.24     0|  0|100
110111/1200Z  84  04007KT  27.5F           0:1| 0.0||13.4    0.000|| 1.09     0.00|| 0.00    0.00|| 0.24     0|  0|  0

[DopplerWx]

NWS here in CHS are pretty confident that everyone in the area will see some wintry wx, just a matter of how much. Sleet/Snow is in the forecast for sunday night so it should be interesting to see how this unfolds. Monday morning commute will be a distaster even if we get minimal accums of snow/sleet or freezing rain.

[earlwx]

Hmm, isn't a low north of the FL panhandle climatologically not in the best position for snow in Atlanta ? Seems a bit far north for a major snow for ATL.

If im not mistaken the blizzard of 93 was an inland runner (miller A?) So it can happen... This low isnt projected to run up the spine of the apps.

[BullCityWx]

TWENTY INCHES just due east of KAND(Roughly around Belton, SC):

110110/0300Z  51  09004KT  31.3F           0:1| 0.0|| 0.0    0.000|| 0.00     0.00|| 0.00    0.00|| 0.00     0|  0|  0
110110/0600Z  54  07007KT  26.2F  SNOW    11:1| 0.3|| 0.3    0.031|| 0.03     0.00|| 0.00    0.00|| 0.00   100|  0|  0
110110/0900Z  57  04008KT  24.4F  SNOW    16:1| 3.1|| 3.5    0.197|| 0.23     0.00|| 0.00    0.00|| 0.00   100|  0|  0
110110/1200Z  60  05012KT  23.5F  SNOW    18:1| 7.8||11.3    0.429|| 0.66     0.00|| 0.00    0.00|| 0.00   100|  0|  0
----------------------------------------------+----++-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---
110110/1500Z  63  05014KT  23.4F  SNOW    19:1| 7.1||18.4    0.378|| 1.04     0.00|| 0.00    0.00|| 0.00   100|  0|  0
110110/1800Z  66  05014KT  24.3F  SNOW     7:1| 1.6||20.0    0.224|| 1.26     0.00|| 0.00    0.00|| 0.00   100|  0|  0
110110/2100Z  69  05016KT  26.2F  FZDZ     0:1| 0.0||20.0    0.106|| 1.37     0.00|| 0.00    0.11|| 0.11     0|  0|100
110111/0000Z  72  05017KT  28.4F  FZDZ     0:1| 0.0||20.0    0.071|| 1.44     0.00|| 0.00    0.07|| 0.19     0|  0|100

18.5" in Anderson, SC:

110110/0600Z  54  06007KT  25.7F  SNOW    10:1| 0.4|| 0.4    0.039|| 0.04     0.00|| 0.00    0.00|| 0.00   100|  0|  0
110110/0900Z  57  04009KT  24.1F  SNOW    16:1| 3.4|| 3.8    0.220|| 0.26     0.00|| 0.00    0.00|| 0.00   100|  0|  0
110110/1200Z  60  05012KT  23.4F  SNOW    18:1| 7.7||11.6    0.417|| 0.68     0.00|| 0.00    0.00|| 0.00   100|  0|  0
----------------------------------------------+----++-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---
110110/1500Z  63  05014KT  23.4F  SNOW    17:1| 5.9||17.5    0.339|| 1.02     0.00|| 0.00    0.00|| 0.00   100|  0|  0
110110/1800Z  66  06013KT  24.4F  SNOW     6:1| 1.0||18.5    0.181|| 1.20     0.00|| 0.00    0.00|| 0.00   100|  0|  0
110110/2100Z  69  06016KT  26.2F  FZDZ     0:1| 0.0||18.5    0.075|| 1.27     0.00|| 0.00    0.08|| 0.08     0|  0|100
110111/0000Z  72  05015KT  28.0F  FZDZ     0:1| 0.0||18.5    0.047|| 1.32     0.00|| 0.00    0.05|| 0.13     0|  0|100
----------------------------------------------+----++-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---
110111/0300Z  75  05015KT  28.2F  FZDZ     0:1| 0.0||18.5    0.028|| 1.35     0.00|| 0.00    0.03|| 0.16     0|  0|100

[BullCityWx]

Look at the rate of snowfall in these places...11" in SIX hours.

[earlwx]

Bufkit obliterates GSP:

110110/0300Z  51  11003KT  29.1F           0:1| 0.0|| 0.0    0.000|| 0.00     0.00|| 0.00    0.00|| 0.00     0|  0|  0
110110/0600Z  54  VRB02KT  28.8F           0:1| 0.0|| 0.0    0.000|| 0.00     0.00|| 0.00    0.00|| 0.00     0|  0|  0
110110/0900Z  57  01005KT  25.0F  SNOW    17:1| 0.9|| 0.9    0.051|| 0.05     0.00|| 0.00    0.00|| 0.00   100|  0|  0
110110/1200Z  60  05010KT  23.2F  SNOW    19:1| 4.7|| 5.6    0.244|| 0.30     0.00|| 0.00    0.00|| 0.00   100|  0|  0
----------------------------------------------+----++-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---
110110/1500Z  63  05012KT  23.2F  SNOW    19:1| 5.4||11.0    0.280|| 0.57     0.00|| 0.00    0.00|| 0.00   100|  0|  0
110110/1800Z  66  04013KT  24.8F  SNOW    10:1| 1.8||12.7    0.177|| 0.75     0.00|| 0.00    0.00|| 0.00   100|  0|  0
110110/2100Z  69  04012KT  25.3F  SNOW     6:1| 0.7||13.4    0.118|| 0.87     0.00|| 0.00    0.00|| 0.00   100|  0|  0
110111/0000Z  72  05015KT  27.5F  FZRA     0:1| 0.0||13.4    0.102|| 0.97     0.00|| 0.00    0.11|| 0.11     0|  0|100
----------------------------------------------+----++-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---
110111/0300Z  75  04013KT  27.7F  FZDZ     0:1| 0.0||13.4    0.091|| 1.06     0.00|| 0.00    0.10|| 0.20     0|  0|100
110111/0600Z  78  03012KT  27.7F  FZDZ     0:1| 0.0||13.4    0.020|| 1.08     0.00|| 0.00    0.02|| 0.22     0|  0|100
110111/0900Z  81  03009KT  24.6F  FZDZ     0:1| 0.0||13.4    0.012|| 1.09     0.00|| 0.00    0.01|| 0.24     0|  0|100
110111/1200Z  84  04007KT  27.5F           0:1| 0.0||13.4    0.000|| 1.09     0.00|| 0.00    0.00|| 0.24     0|  0|  0

Could you post this data for GSV? Please... I don't have bufkit on my computer...

[georgiawx11]

Is there any chance that dryslot in AL also continues into GA due to a squall line further south blocking moisture ?

[Gastonwxman]

Look at the rate of snowfall in these places...11" in SIX hours.

Those are VERY impressive snowfall rates that those folks have going on. Almost unbelievable!

[BullCityWx]

Could you post this data for GSV? Please... I don't have bufkit on my computer...

Bufkit isnt available for that location, sorry.

[snowflake29684]

HA HA I WILL BELIEVE THAT WHEN I SEE IT HAPPEN BUT MAN IT WOULD BE NICE

TWENTY INCHES just due east of KAND(Roughly around Belton, SC):

110110/0300Z  51  09004KT  31.3F           0:1| 0.0|| 0.0    0.000|| 0.00     0.00|| 0.00    0.00|| 0.00     0|  0|  0
110110/0600Z  54  07007KT  26.2F  SNOW    11:1| 0.3|| 0.3    0.031|| 0.03     0.00|| 0.00    0.00|| 0.00   100|  0|  0
110110/0900Z  57  04008KT  24.4F  SNOW    16:1| 3.1|| 3.5    0.197|| 0.23     0.00|| 0.00    0.00|| 0.00   100|  0|  0
110110/1200Z  60  05012KT  23.5F  SNOW    18:1| 7.8||11.3    0.429|| 0.66     0.00|| 0.00    0.00|| 0.00   100|  0|  0
----------------------------------------------+----++-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---
110110/1500Z  63  05014KT  23.4F  SNOW    19:1| 7.1||18.4    0.378|| 1.04     0.00|| 0.00    0.00|| 0.00   100|  0|  0
110110/1800Z  66  05014KT  24.3F  SNOW     7:1| 1.6||20.0    0.224|| 1.26     0.00|| 0.00    0.00|| 0.00   100|  0|  0
110110/2100Z  69  05016KT  26.2F  FZDZ     0:1| 0.0||20.0    0.106|| 1.37     0.00|| 0.00    0.11|| 0.11     0|  0|100
110111/0000Z  72  05017KT  28.4F  FZDZ     0:1| 0.0||20.0    0.071|| 1.44     0.00|| 0.00    0.07|| 0.19     0|  0|100

18.5" in Anderson, SC:

110110/0600Z  54  06007KT  25.7F  SNOW    10:1| 0.4|| 0.4    0.039|| 0.04     0.00|| 0.00    0.00|| 0.00   100|  0|  0
110110/0900Z  57  04009KT  24.1F  SNOW    16:1| 3.4|| 3.8    0.220|| 0.26     0.00|| 0.00    0.00|| 0.00   100|  0|  0
110110/1200Z  60  05012KT  23.4F  SNOW    18:1| 7.7||11.6    0.417|| 0.68     0.00|| 0.00    0.00|| 0.00   100|  0|  0
----------------------------------------------+----++-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---
110110/1500Z  63  05014KT  23.4F  SNOW    17:1| 5.9||17.5    0.339|| 1.02     0.00|| 0.00    0.00|| 0.00   100|  0|  0
110110/1800Z  66  06013KT  24.4F  SNOW     6:1| 1.0||18.5    0.181|| 1.20     0.00|| 0.00    0.00|| 0.00   100|  0|  0
110110/2100Z  69  06016KT  26.2F  FZDZ     0:1| 0.0||18.5    0.075|| 1.27     0.00|| 0.00    0.08|| 0.08     0|  0|100
110111/0000Z  72  05015KT  28.0F  FZDZ     0:1| 0.0||18.5    0.047|| 1.32     0.00|| 0.00    0.05|| 0.13     0|  0|100
----------------------------------------------+----++-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---
110111/0300Z  75  05015KT  28.2F  FZDZ     0:1| 0.0||18.5    0.028|| 1.35     0.00|| 0.00    0.03|| 0.16     0|  0|100