POWERSTROKE Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 well you would know it, we put all the plows on except my truck, all the salters on and now the storm has backed off. Hopefully with the north trend the euro will continue the swing. Maybe like Christmas where in the last 24 hours the models came north Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 The SV snowmap has that little spec of 8-12 over me by 84 hours The Accuweather maps have 10-12" along a line from wadesboro to york. 8-10" stretches from Salisbury all the way down to the ATL suburbs(or at the very least, lake lanier). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MotoWeatherman Posted January 8, 2011 Author Share Posted January 8, 2011 But I heard the wedge could go well into AL ? It can but not the depth that it would be over GA which could aid in isentropic lift. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
georgiawx11 Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 True...just went back and checked the previous 3 runs and all decreased a bit in AL so you might be on to something there. Do you think the lesser amounts in AL will continue on future models runs ? If continues to decrease AL won't be left with much at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 Yes the start time. Going to cause issues for schools and a program I have Monday afternoon. gesh. But screw it!! I would love to see this trend continue into the 06 runs. This run has you and I with about 2" already by 7 AM Monday, so it begins pre-dawn. I'd honstly rather have it start right after midnight, to lock in the coldest possible temps and then wake up to a winter wonderland. As opposed to have it begin at daybreak . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 Looks like ole frosty may be looking out the south window dreaming of snow ? lol Shows a little more here but i'm not the least bit excited for here. Youll find a way. I still think you can get 3-6 and all snow. Trust me when I tell you in 7-8 days You will own us all. The 18z has another whopper on the horizon and Im gonna sneak a peak to see if its still around on 0z. It literally had about an inch and 1/2 plus of mostly ice ending with snow. Big HP in NE like old days. Anyway I think the pattern first/models second approach will speak the truth more-so once again. What a winter this is turning out to be thanks to the NAO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Avdave Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 We've got a serious shot at going below zero in the whole region from GSP to CLT if we can get a deep enough snowpack. Jerms, did you see this wicked ice storm for Jackson, Ms on tonights NAM, talk about devastation Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 Jerms, did you see this wicked ice storm for Jackson, Ms on tonights NAM, talk about devastation Wow, i'm not shocked though. there's probably going to be similar damage in the midlands of SC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 I think that the Triad region would be mostly snow until a little freezing drizzle at the end because the 18z sounding was that way and the 0z looks similar. Once you get down to HWY 64, I would hope that sleet would keep the major ice storm away because the surface temps seem to be around 27 for the event and it never goes above freezing through hour 120 (the end of the sounding). Is it too early for someone to say where the sleet will rule and where the ice storm will be? That will probably come down to nowcasting and obs (until the power goes out). The trend is the friend for the GFS for central nc for MBY on the GFS 6z run - .67 12z - .52 18z - .85 0z - .91 I have a feeling that the GFS will win this battle with the NAM! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 This run has you and I with about 2" already by 7 AM Monday, so it begins pre-dawn. I'd honstly rather have it start right after midnight, to lock in the coldest possible temps and then wake up to a winter wonderland. As opposed to have it begin at daybreak . I remember 88 had the snow falling with temperatures right around 18 or 19...reckon we got a shot at that? It looks close. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MotoWeatherman Posted January 8, 2011 Author Share Posted January 8, 2011 could this meet blizzard criteria for north georgia? Not likely as one of the Blizzard critera is 35+MPH winds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pilotwx Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 Keep that monkey mojo going, we are really close to getting .50 to.60 another move North we are in there. Also I think we are going to see ratios up here of 20:1. I also am looking at the 500mb chart and the storm looks like it is closer to the coast than previous runs. So it might just be a matter of time before the QPF #'s go up. Looks like ole frosty may be looking out the south window dreaming of snow ? lol Shows a little more here but i'm not the least bit excited for here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 This is a wetter run for NC than the 18z run. These are 72 hour amounts, excluding tonights bustorama amounts that were just model fantasy. Thru 72 hours it is likely snow for RDU, at 72 hours we reach 0.18C at 850, but it is likely overcome by high rates. By 78 hours, the warm nose is a bit more pronounced up to 0.83C at 850, so likely a sleet sounding but close enough to make me think snow is possible if the model is just slightly too strong with the warm nose. It is certainly freezing rain by 84 hours. So taken literally I would see a couple inches of snow, a signficant amount of sleet and certainly some freezing train to end. Allan or anyone else, is there any scenario now that would yield a mostly snow result for the Triangle area or is that completely off the table at this point? I would think that if the southern stream energy held together better/longer and took a more southerly route, then it would limit the warm nose intrusion? In that case we'd keep more of a Miller A look? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MotoWeatherman Posted January 8, 2011 Author Share Posted January 8, 2011 Yea it looks funny. Doesnt add up. Hopefully it isnt the beginning of a trend. Do you think that 00z nam was overdone? I am thinking a happy medium would be the solution for central AL and ATL. 3-6'' with higher amounts where the best banding shows up. At this point in time I would go between the NAM and GFS on amounts for Birmingham. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 Here's the obs from the January 88 storm...notice how the obs show IP as the precip winds down..almost scarily like what the GFS is advertising: http://www.wunderground.com/history/airport/KCLT/1988/1/7/DailyHistory.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
POWERSTROKE Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 Youll find a way. I still think you can get 3-6 and all snow. Trust me when I tell you in 7-8 days You will own us all. The 18z has another whopper on the horizon and Im gonna sneak a peak to see if its still around on 0z. It literally had about an inch and 1/2 plus of mostly ice ending with snow. Big HP in NE like old days. Anyway I think the pattern first/models second approach will speak the truth more-so once again. What a winter this is turning out to be thanks to the NAO. quit playing with our hearts man, these last two storms are killing Frosty and me down to the last minute, and now you talking more? I am satisfies with 3-6 inches of snow or even ice. I can put out salt for that but if we get nothing then nothing can be done. Looks like we may have to go to Atlanta. Don't think they have much equipment but it would have to be serious money to drive there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 Columbia? I havent paid close attention down there for this system except it looks pretty good. How do you look in Metro CLT? Yeah, it could be really bad down there. 18z GFS had 1.35" QPF down there and 1.32" of it was freezing rain. Charlotte looks like mostly snow before some IP. Probably going to be a huge aviation impact across the two main airports in the south(I dont count FLA as the south). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 WW has those in a broad 6-10" range with a couple of hot spots on 10-15 West on Anderson in GA and East and south of 85 The Accuweather maps have 10-12" along a line from wadesboro to york. 8-10" stretches from Salisbury all the way down to the ATL suburbs(or at the very least, lake lanier). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MotoWeatherman Posted January 8, 2011 Author Share Posted January 8, 2011 Do you think the lesser amounts in AL will continue on future models runs ? If continues to decrease AL won't be left with much at all. See post #74 on this page.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 What's do ratios look like when gulf moisture falls through low 20s temps? Whatever we lose in sleet in the end will be more than made up for with ratios, I would guess. Re: Ending as snow -- hard to tell -- the 850 line is kind of all over the place between 72 and 84 (reminds me of that scene in Airplane when the guy is checking the "radar range." for Striker. I remember 88 had the snow falling with temperatures right around 18 or 19...reckon we got a shot at that? It looks close. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 What's do ratios look like when gulf moisture falls through low 20s temps? Whatever we lose in sleet in the end will be more than made up for with ratios, I would guess. Re: Ending as snow -- hard to tell -- the 850 line is kind of all over the place between 72 and 84 (reminds me of that scene in Airplane when the guy is checking the "radar range." for Striker. Honestly, I dont know yet but I dont see them being worse than 18z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 I remember 88 had the snow falling with temperatures right around 18 or 19...reckon we got a shot at that? It looks close. if it begin after midnight I'd say so. The 88 storm had strong high pressure to the north, this one isn't as strong but the low levels are plenty cold and the only way we'll warm up at the surface is from latent heat release which won't be much I dont think until the "drizzle" part at the end of our storm. Most if not all would probably be snow I think, unless things trend a little warmer aloft. So far, theyr'e really not. We use up most of our moisture just in the knick of time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tgarren Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 NCSNOW i yield to you, the GFS has really picked up qpf totals for our area but i am still not convinced about the temps yet. all of the models blew it tonight with the clipper. its going to be typical for randolph county. we are right on the line and will either be the jackpot if its cold enough or the screw zone if its not. i am interested in what the euro will say. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itunis Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 quit playing with our hearts man, these last two storms are killing Frosty and me down to the last minute, and now you talking more? I am satisfies with 3-6 inches of snow or even ice. I can put out salt for that but if we get nothing then nothing can be done. Looks like we may have to go to Atlanta. Don't think they have much equipment but it would have to be serious money to drive there Gainesville (DOT headquarters for N GA it seems like) has a decent number of plows (mainly used for the mountains obviously) and salt/sand stockpiles so we have some capability to clear the snow, but not nearly enough for 6"+ event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 The cold after this storm is going to be like we havent seen in years and years here. There could be several single digit nights and possibly even below zero if we build up a snow pack. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 if it begin after midnight I'd say so. The 88 storm had strong high pressure to the north, this one isn't as strong but the low levels are plenty cold and the only way we'll warm up at the surface is from latent heat release which won't be much I dont think until the "drizzle" part at the end of our storm. Most if not all would probably be snow I think, unless things trend a little warmer aloft. So far, theyr'e really not. We use up most of our moisture just in the knick of time. I just wonder if this will actually start earlier, on Christmas GFS and NAM both pretty much nailed the start time. I almost want it to start a little late since I'll be in work at 5 a.m. on Monday morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Avdave Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 Yeah, it could be really bad down there. 18z GFS had 1.35" QPF down there and 1.32" of it was freezing rain. Charlotte looks like mostly snow before some IP. Probably going to be a huge aviation impact across the two main airports in the south(I dont count FLA as the south). Yikes, that sounds worse than the DEc 08 Ice storm I have in NH with 8 days of no power and such. I cant even begin to imagine the aviation delays and cancelations, it is going to be a huge mess for the eastern third of the country IMO. though not to bad in Memphis on the 0z NAM compared to what the 18z had for your neck of the woods, thats some sick QPF for you Quite a big difference from MEM to ATL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 Look at what the snowpack does to temperatures here...there's a raging blizzard over LAKE SUPERIOR and we're well below freezing: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 I don't think that those of us in central nc should be banking on high snow ratios. For a few hours we can have pretty good ratios and fluff factor, but remember that many of us will be changing to sleet/fz. For the last several hours of snow the ratios will go down to 7:1. An inch of liquid will not equal a foot of snow due to other reasons like the dreaded dry slot (usually over Widreman's house), dry air, upper dynamics, lift, etc... Don't take precip and especially snow maps literally! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MotoWeatherman Posted January 8, 2011 Author Share Posted January 8, 2011 0z GFS shows snow sounding for Birmingham thru 1am Monday with it changing to sleet sometime before 7am Monday. For ATL the sounding looks like snow thru 7am Monday but changes over to sleet/freezing rain sometime before 1pm Monday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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