DLI4SCwx Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 .42 isnt.. lol Things look they have trended a bit better for us. Or at least I hope so anyways. I'll just wait till go time and nowcasting. I hope things are better for us than worse icewise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 Look at the radar in TX right now it looks like it's already doing better than the recent models had it. exactly. Wow... A bullseye over Columbia? Please tell me a good bulk of that is NOT freezing rain. We SIMPLY DO NOT need freezing rain. That would be TERRIBLE. for a while now the models have really been nailing the midlands of SC with ice. You'll get some snow, but then you'll get freezing rain and end up with freezing drizzle for a while, and it looks like the freezing rain and drizzle part will accumulate a lot. I'd pay extra attention to tomorrow's trends. Ice over .50" is a bad hit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 Hmmmm, lookie what popped up on the 3Z RUC at 18 hours ... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 the ggem, another big snow instead of ice for CAE. So.. NAM and GGEM are less of an ice storm.. gfs is probably too warm or has precip too high.. for the big ice at the end of it's run after the snow. http://collaboration.cmc.ec.gc.ca/cmc/cmdn/pcpn_type/pcpn_type_gem_reg.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cheeznado Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 The 00Z models held serve here basically- GFS 3" of snow or so, the NAM 5-6" So no change to my thinking of 4-5". It is amazing how little the models have changed the past 3 runs or so, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MotoWeatherman Posted January 9, 2011 Author Share Posted January 9, 2011 This may ease some pain from the 0z GFS...here is the 0z RGEM... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow for dylan Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 local mets saying mostly ice for nga? doesnt make sense... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
denver729 Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 take it with a grain of salt. the nam was around 7 inches on bufkit application.. with like .24 only of frozen rain.. so yeah take an in-between. Thank you for your help. I greatly appreciate it. I hope we don't lose our power or we can get mostly sleet and less freezing rain. That would be better for you and I. Thanks again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HatcheryHooligan Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 I don't know why, but I have a bad feeling about this storm. I know we will probably get some snow here in McDowell, however, with all the anticipation 3 inches would feel like a total letdown. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrips27 Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 at WSB in Atlanta... Brad Nitz was like... " we expect a quick change over to sleet and freezing rain tomorrow night." Literally their in house model had no snow for atlanta west... Then he showed their accumulation map and it had like a huge snow whole from Atlanta all the way up to Blairsville... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 for a while now the models have really been nailing the midlands of SC with ice. You'll get some snow, but then you'll get freezing rain and end up with freezing drizzle for a while, and it looks like the freezing rain and drizzle part will accumulate a lot. I'd pay extra attention to tomorrow's trends. Ice over .50" is a bad hit. Listen to him ^. Right now, even with the new GGEM and NAM being less of an ice storm.. a tiny temp change the wrong way could be a catastrophic ice storm of over .50 for sure in CAE areas. These models are never 100% correct on every detail. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earlwx Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 The 00Z models held serve here basically- GFS 3" of snow or so, the NAM 5-6" So no change to my thinking of 4-5". It is amazing how little the models have changed the past 3 runs or so, Sent PM... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gastonwxman Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 Look at the radar in TX right now it looks like it's already doing better than the recent models had it. It also looks like it's already ahead of 0z GFS at 6hr where it was developing it in central TX by then. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow for dylan Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 i have no idea what to expect for north ga? anyone have advice Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 i just dont see how our area overcomes the 850s all the models are showing even it we do see enough moisture to produce. if it were border line than maybe but when the precip is here the 0 line is in VA I'll start sounding watching keenly latter tomorow. To early for all that digging right now. That 3-6 is manly beacuse of changeover possibility, hence the 3 if early and 6 if its (changeover) delayed. Just got over .5 on the gfs. The Nam is killing everything to fast on this side of the apps in NC IMO and Im not suprised. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ganut Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 foothills need some help i hope this is not a imby question family fling in to atl about 4 tomm. what time does maps show sn moving in the atl area also how is the area running i20 to ags im seeing 4-6 ins of snow with 1/2 inch of ice my best guest Thanks in advance exactly. for a while now the models have really been nailing the midlands of SC with ice. You'll get some snow, but then you'll get freezing rain and end up with freezing drizzle for a while, and it looks like the freezing rain and drizzle part will accumulate a lot. I'd pay extra attention to tomorrow's trends. Ice over .50" is a bad hit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MotoWeatherman Posted January 9, 2011 Author Share Posted January 9, 2011 i have no idea what to expect for north ga? anyone have advice Read what everyone on here is saying. It's quite clear. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 It also looks like it's already ahead of 0z GFS at 6hr where it was developing it in central TX by then. One vital thing to remember, although it may not apply to this. Weather models in general, already discount virga.. current radar observations do not. In other words, what you see as moisture on a model is usually what actually falls and is on the ground. A radar doesn't know what's hitting or not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Marion_NC_WX Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 I don't know why, but I have a bad feeling about this storm. I know we will probably get some snow here in McDowell, however, with all the anticipation 3 inches would feel like a total letdown. Welcome to the Show Hooligan...sit back and relax on this one. We're gonna do just fine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Czar Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 i have no idea what to expect for north ga? anyone have advice LOL.. There is about 50 pages worth. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrips27 Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 i have no idea what to expect for north ga? anyone have advice Read and you will find out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 i have no idea what to expect for north ga? anyone have advice Your golden, get your sled ready, make sure your flashlights have batterys and have plenty of beverages of choice. It's going to be a blast for you guys. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 I vote Robert aka FoothillsNC to start the next thread! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 Welcome to the Show Hooligan...sit back and relax on this one. We're gonna do just fine. [/qu How many people do we have on amwx from McDowell now? Anywho i wish i was back home for this one; I believe the Eastern slopes might be in a relative maximum for snowfall with this storm, one reason being the trajectory of moisture flowing in from the southeast it appears looking at the models which would create great orographical uplift and higher prcip rates along the Blue Ridge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrips27 Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 I vote Robert aka FoothillsNC to start the next thread! I 2nd that vote! You deserve it Foothills! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoolBreeze Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 Absolutely !!! Foothills should do the honor of creating the next thread. He's had such great insight so far with this storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sctvman Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 All the stations are showing different accumulations. 2 on the coast is just showing a mix to rain on the coast. They're calling for 45 Monday. 4 is showing no accumulation, with the less than 1/2 inch line all the way down to Highway 17. They also show some places getting as much as .2 in ice. 5 is showing the most, with up to 1" on the coast, 1-2" inland, and 2" and more farther inland. I truly don't know what's going to happen. It could be a ice storm, sleet, snow, or rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Marion_NC_WX Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 Welcome to the Show Hooligan...sit back and relax on this one. We're gonna do just fine. How many people do we have on amwx from McDowell now? Anywho i wish i was back home for this one; I believe the Eastern slopes might be in a relative maximum for snowfall with this storm, one reason being the trajectory of moisture flowing in from the southeast it appears looking at the models which would create great orographical uplift and higher prcip rates along the Blue Ridge. You, me, Hooligan, foothillsweather, mercurydime...not bad for lil' ol' MacDowell County Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
philconnors Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 Starting to come together folks..I think we will have a good 4-6 inches here in Birmingham metro. Super Stoked! I said that 3.5'' would be a good number for us but i may bump that up a touch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 foothills need some help i hope this is not a imby question family fling in to atl about 4 tomm. what time does maps show sn moving in the atl area also how is the area running i20 to ags im seeing 4-6 ins of snow with 1/2 inch of ice my best guest Thanks in advance I vote Robert aka FoothillsNC to start the next thread! thanks , but no way. Too much pressure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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