burgertime Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 Well this run is a little bit drier but a little colder too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 Didn't it happen last Winter? The GFS is going the way of RUC tonight. Much stronger 5H in northern La. Precip more north and expansive, yet still not enough, per real data from RUC. Its getting there though. Might still get something descent even verbatim out of the GFS since the light snow sticks around longer with the lower temps Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ncjoaquin Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 Didn't it happen last Winter? The GFS is going the way of RUC tonight. Much stronger 5H in northern La. Precip more north and expansive, yet still not enough, per real data from RUC. Its getting there though. I had snow on the ground, but it was old, somewhat patchy. This will be a solid fresh blanket Monday AM. But, I'm not greedy, if you could have it, I would let all you guys have it all. I'm hoping we trend away from any freezing drizzle. At least here, it seems like every snow we have had has involved models catching up and doing basically what you had suggested, so I'm expecting nothing different this time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Huffwx Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 Weird in that it's drier in general, but does a better job at slicing the precipt into the dry air in NC/VA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WidreMann Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 00z GFS is depressing for pretty much everyone in NC, even in the SW corner. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEGa Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 hopefully the colder temps can help with ratios to still give a nice accumulation. it would be nice to see the models really ramp up the qpf tomorrow like they did with the christmas storm on christmas eve edited to add: just saw the snow map on twister, showing a solid 3" across n al, n ga and the upstate by hour 39 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 Might still get something descent even verbatim out of the GFS since the light snow sticks around longer with the lower temps This run is great at 5H and even better but obviously fails at the QPf which its doing from teh get go, and it will play catch up. The cutoff will bring a nice swath either side of it , and that crosses right across western NC around 42 hours. I had snow on the ground, but it was old, somewhat patchy. This will be a solid fresh blanket Monday AM. But, I'm not greedy, if you could have it, I would let all you guys have it all. I'm hoping we trend away from any freezing drizzle. At least here, it seems like every snow we have had has involved models catching up and doing basically what you had suggested, so I'm expecting nothing different this time. Your'e golden for a big event. Smack in the middle. Probably over 6". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowNiner Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 Didn't it happen last Winter? The GFS is going the way of RUC tonight. Much stronger 5H in northern La. Precip more north and expansive, yet still not enough, per real data from RUC. Its getting there though. Geez Louise, this is starting to become a faith versus science issue. I feel like I'm watching an episode of Lost! We all know how that turned out!! I want to give up on this storm seeing all the global models forecasting a minor event for Charlotte. But Robert keeps my hopes/faith alive. The 0Z NAM had me going there but the GFS keeps me back to reality. Why can't the globals just bring it home?! I don't know what to think anymore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
iceman Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 00z GFS is depressing for pretty much everyone in NC, even in the SW corner. where is the ignore button? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itunis Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 This run is great at 5H and even better but obviously fails at the QPf which its doing from teh get go, and it will play catch up. The cutoff will bring a nice swath either side of it , and that crosses right across western NC around 42 hours. Your'e golden for a big event. Smack in the middle. Probably over 6". Yeah I was about to complain about the low QPF it's printing out, glad to see the run has redeeming qualities to it...I'm sure it's not helping FFC's confidence though, they're right on the edge of dropping amounts it seems like. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 00z GFS is depressing for pretty much everyone in NC, even in the SW corner. Luckily, folks there are watching reality, called RUC and SREF. Geez Louise, this is starting to become a faith versus science issue. I feel like I'm watching an episode of Lost! We all know how that turned out!! I want to give up on this storm seeing all the global models forecasting a minor event for Charlotte. But Robert keeps my hopes/faith alive. The 0Z NAM had me going there but the GFS keeps me back to reality. Why can't the globals just bring it home?! I don't know what to think anymore. It looks like precip expanded more in NC geographically this run, but not enough, per SREF and probably RUC. I've never seen the GFS accurately forecast a snow storm in CLT or points west, except maybe AVL region. The trend matters.The 5H is coming right across NC and I don't see it evaporating instantly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tgarren Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 sticking with my 3-6 with ice /crust on top call from yesterday. I'll have to say the 3 looks alot more likely at the moment. I'm not as swayed with model to model runs, and feel that we should accomplish a few inches and some freezing drizzle on top minimum. If im gonna change anything it will be tommorow night, but the track for this storm doesnt get any better for our area. Everything is in place, just have to keep the vort closed as long as possible and be weary of the very dry airmass. I still feel confident at the moment. i just dont see how our area overcomes the 850s all the models are showing even it we do see enough moisture to produce. if it were border line than maybe but when the precip is here the 0 line is in VA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
POWERSTROKE Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 Luckily, folks there are watching reality, called RUC and SREF. It looks like precip expanded more in NC geographically this run, but not enough, per SREF and probably RUC. I've never seen the GFS accurately forecast a snow storm in CLT or points west, except maybe AVL region. The trend matters.The 5H is coming right across NC and I don't see it evaporating instantly. I am glad we have mets like you and the others to tell us about the weather. Some in the eastern part of the state think they are mets. Heck they even get it right every once in a while. Keep up good work Robert. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Poimen Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 well...it looks to me that most, if not all, of the qpf in this area is going to be freezing rain. The GFS has .25 plus here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
crossthread Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 KLM AFD Valid 933 PM EST Sat Jan 8 2011 Synopsis... dry...Arctic high pressure will remain over the area through Sunday. A significant storm system will produce a wintry mix of precipitation from early Monday morning through Tuesday morning across the forecast area. Cold high pressure will build over the eastern Carolinas in the wake of this storm system through middle week. && Near term /through tonight/... as of 9 PM Saturday...have issued a Winter Storm Watch for all counties except the 3 coastal counties...Georgetown...Brunswick and New Hanover counties. Have come within 3 time periods from the start of the wintry precipitation early Monday morning with the area to receive frozen and freezing precipitation that could make treacherous Road conditions within the watch area. For the overnight period...the cold instability SC/cumulus has for the most part scoured out via latest Sat imagery and the lost of the days insolation. Cold air advection and much drier air to continue overnight...with single digit dewpoints across much of the forecast area by daybreak Sunday. This played out well by the models progression of 925mb and 850mb temperatures and partial thicknesses by daybreak Sunday. This will keep a well maximized boundary layer and thus prevent lows tonight from bottoming out. Wind chill readings will drop into the low to middle teens at times. && Short term /Sunday through Monday night/... as of 3 PM Saturday...low pressure will move across the northern Gulf of Mexico sun into Monday before turning up the East Coast Monday night into Tuesday. Latest GFS/NAM have trended slightly slower with the movement of the low. Slowly modifying Arctic air mass in place sun will set the stage for the winter precipitation event which should start as snow early Monday. hould be quite a spread of wintry weather across the area with northwest counties having mostly snow through much of the event with a potential change to light freezing rain or ice pellets by Monday night. Far southeast will be mostly rain though it could begin as snow. In between... we should see the gamut with snow at the beginning all areas with a change to rain south and east and some kind of wintry mix north and west. Snow/ice pellets amounts could be as high as 4 to 6 inches northwest counties and less than an inch NC coast and good chunks of coastal SC. Event should occur mainly in the 4th period and have not raised any type of watch...will continue to mention threat in severe weather potential statement. The usual caveats apply regarding storm track and strength for determining p-type. && Long term /Tuesday through Saturday/... as of 3 PM Saturday...low pressure will be off Cape Fear around daybreak Tuesday...with a lot of middle-level dry air wrapping in behind it. Precipitation will be slow to wind down...as the current forecast carries low chance probability of precipitation through midday for the NC counties. However... by then the soundings look just warm enough below 850mb and just dry enough above that any p-type issues should be behind US. Sprawling high pressure will dominate for the remainder of the week...with ridge axis making its way from the northern plains late Tuesday...into the Carolinas Friday night and Saturday. The result will be dry and unseasonably cold weather...with lows in the 20s and highs in the 40s through most of the week. Only on Saturday will we start to see a rebound in temperatures...with highs actually near normal. current obs, front moved through Mid-after noon... 31.1 °F ClearWindchill: 19 °F Humidity:51% Dew Point:15 °F Wind:20.4 mph from the NNW Wind Gust:20.6 mph Pressure:29.90 in (Rising) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 Here we go: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowNiner Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 Luckily, folks there are watching reality, called RUC and SREF. It looks like precip expanded more in NC geographically this run, but not enough, per SREF and probably RUC. I've never seen the GFS accurately forecast a snow storm in CLT or points west, except maybe AVL region. The trend matters.The 5H is coming right across NC and I don't see it evaporating instantly. Ok Robert, thanks for the reply. Hey, I'm definitely in your corner. I finished watching Lost with some doubts, may as well keep this drama going! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 Look at the radar in TX right now it looks like it's already doing better than the recent models had it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 It looks like precip expanded more in NC geographically this run, but not enough, per SREF and probably RUC. I've never seen the GFS accurately forecast a snow storm in CLT or points west, except maybe AVL region. The trend matters.The 5H is coming right across NC and I don't see it evaporating instantly. How will the trend to stronger effect the upper level warming and P-types? Is the current depiction about right, in your opinion, or will it play catch-up like you think the precip amounts will? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 Yes. Just keep that movement to the North. Look at the radar in TX right now it looks like it's already doing better than the recent models had it. More than happy with that!! Here we go: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
denver729 Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 Wow... A bullseye over Columbia? Please tell me a good bulk of that is NOT freezing rain. We SIMPLY DO NOT need freezing rain. That would be TERRIBLE. Here we go: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 Wow... A bullseye over Columbia? Please tell me a good bulk of that is NOT freezing rain. We SIMPLY DO NOT need freezing rain. That would be TERRIBLE. .42 isnt.. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow haven Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 Here we go: That looks like the heaviest of the prcip has shifted to the east. is that correct? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 Yes. Just keep that movement to the North. With what Robert talked about and seeing how we keep getting amounts around .50 and better I really do believe in my heart of hearts this will over perform. Now it's off to bed for me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
denver729 Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 .42 isnt.. lol OMG... Half snow and HALF freezing rain?? Or would that other half be sleet AND freezing rain? That would be horrible for the power lines. A nightmare for the roads. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow for dylan Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 low gaining strength in tx, GFS not look good for nga? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 OMG... Half snow and HALF freezing rain?? Or would that other half be sleet AND freezing rain? That would be horrible for the power lines. A nightmare for the roads. I can't tell you all of that.. i have 6 hr intervals.. but .42 should be mainly snow.. then between there and the freezing rain.. a little sleet.. then freezing rain... hopefully the gfs isn't detecting super precip rates during .42 and it will push the warm nose away. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
denver729 Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 I can't tell you all of that.. i have 6 hr intervals.. but .42 should be mainly snow.. then between there and the freezing rain.. a little sleet.. then freezing rain... hopefully the gfs isn't detecting super precip rates during .42 and it will push the warm nose away. Good Grief. Do you have the wood piled up or the generator??? I know I do. Oh boy, this is bad..so bad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 Good Grief. Do you have the wood piled up or the generator??? I know I do. Oh boy, this is bad..so bad. take it with a grain of salt. the nam was around 7 inches on bufkit application.. with like .24 only of frozen rain.. so yeah take an in-between. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 low gaining strength in tx, GFS not look good for nga? I don't really understand the lack of precip in Alabama and North GA. It looks a little funky to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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