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The Jan 9-10 Storm Part 3

MotoWeatherman

By MotoWeatherman,
in Southeastern States

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MotoWeatherman

MotoWeatherman

Posted
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Posted

The 850's are too warm especially on the last GFS model according to them. Sadly, they're probably right.

For Atlanta that is true. Just looked at the soundings from the 18z run...

1am Monday.....warm layer at 700mb???

  
Date: 36 hour GFS valid 6Z MON 10 JAN 11
Station: Katl
Latitude:   33.65
Longitude: -84.42
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
LEV PRES  HGHT  TEMP  DEWP  RH  DD   WETB DIR SPD THETA THE-V THE-W THE-E   W
    mb     m     C     C    %   C     C  deg knt   K     K     K     K    g/kg
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
 0 1000   172                                                                 
SFC  988   270  -2.0  -8.6  60  6.6  -4.1  81  17 272.1 272.4 269.7 277.7  2.01
 2  950   579  -4.2 -11.8  55  7.6  -6.4  95  37 273.0 273.2 269.6 277.5  1.62
 3  850  1459   0.0  -9.8  47  9.9  -3.4 143  38 286.2 286.6 277.9 292.4  2.13
 4  800  1944  -1.9  -6.6  70  4.7  -3.7 162  36 289.1 289.6 280.3 297.6  2.92
 5  750  2456  -1.6  -2.1  96  0.5  -1.8 194  40 294.9 295.6 284.5 307.7  4.37
 6  700  3009   0.2  -0.1  98  0.3   0.0 220  51 302.7 303.7 288.5 319.1  5.43
 7  650  3603  -1.4  -1.8  97  0.4  -1.6 231  59 307.4 308.4 289.8 323.3  5.17
 8  600  4236  -6.2  -7.6  89  1.5  -6.8 234  62 309.0 309.7 288.8 320.3  3.59
 9  550  4910 -11.4 -14.1  80  2.7 -12.3 236  67 310.6 311.0 288.1 318.1  2.34
10  500  5635 -16.2 -18.1  85  2.0 -16.7 246  71 313.3 313.7 288.5 319.4  1.83
11  450  6419 -21.7 -24.1  81  2.4 -22.2 250  79 316.0 316.2 288.8 320.1  1.21
12  400  7277 -27.5 -34.0  54  6.5 -28.5 246  84 319.2 319.3 289.1 321.1  0.54

7am Monday....sleet

Date: 42 hour GFS valid 12Z MON 10 JAN 11
Station: Katl
Latitude:   33.65
Longitude: -84.42
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
LEV PRES  HGHT  TEMP  DEWP  RH  DD   WETB DIR SPD THETA THE-V THE-W THE-E   W
    mb     m     C     C    %   C     C  deg knt   K     K     K     K    g/kg
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
 0 1000   181                                                                 
SFC  989   270  -2.6  -3.8  91  1.2  -3.0  84  19 271.4 271.9 270.7 279.3  2.91
 2  950   586  -5.3  -5.5  98  0.3  -5.4  87  33 271.8 272.3 270.6 279.1  2.66
 3  850  1468   1.0   0.6  97  0.4   0.8 159  44 287.2 288.0 281.6 300.6  4.71
 4  800  1958   2.0   1.9  99  0.1   2.0 195  46 293.3 294.3 285.0 309.2  5.49
 5  750  2478   0.5   0.4  99  0.1   0.5 217  48 297.2 298.1 286.3 312.7  5.27
 6  700  3030  -2.3  -2.4  99  0.1  -2.4 227  51 299.9 300.7 286.6 313.6  4.56
 7  650  3613  -7.3  -8.6  90  1.3  -7.8 230  50 300.7 301.3 285.4 310.1  3.06
 8  600  4233  -9.7 -27.3  22 17.6 -13.7 238  52 304.9 305.0 284.2 307.1  0.68
 9  550  4901 -12.6 -30.0  22 17.4 -16.2 241  59 309.2 309.3 285.7 311.2  0.58
10  500  5621 -17.6 -30.3  32 12.6 -20.1 243  62 311.5 311.7 286.6 313.7  0.62
11  450  6400 -23.9 -36.9  29 12.9 -25.7 244  64 313.1 313.2 286.9 314.4  0.36
12  400  7248 -30.1 -46.4  19 16.3 -31.5 244  70 315.9 315.9 287.6 316.4  0.15

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DopplerWx

DopplerWx

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Local news just called for up to 1" on the coast here in CHS. Said he was confident everyone would see snow at the onset. Local NWS says they are favoring the quicker NAM, which we need to happen if we want to see any wintry wx before it warms. Stormfury, when do you think it will start here in the lowcountry?

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HurricaneTracker

HurricaneTracker

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00Z NAM doesn't show the freezing rain threat it and the GFS once showed just a few runs ago for Asheville. This was indeed a fantastic run for the mountains of WNC. Looks to me like almost 0.75" of liquid equivalent with a great chance of snow ratios between 15 and 20:1, which means a healthy 8-12" verbatim off the new NAM. And Foothills is right - that comma head lingers over most of NC for quite some time. My guess is that QPF in that deformation band is underestimated as well. This really could be a massive event for the mountains. Amazing.

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MotoWeatherman

MotoWeatherman

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Hey Dawson.....would you mind posting the soundings out of Gainesville, Ga for the same time periods for those of us more in the NE??? Thanks!!!!

Gainesville GA from 18z GFS run...

1am Monday...snow

Date: 36 hour GFS valid 6Z MON 10 JAN 11
Station: Kgvl
Latitude:   34.32
Longitude: -83.83
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
LEV PRES  HGHT  TEMP  DEWP  RH  DD   WETB DIR SPD THETA THE-V THE-W THE-E   W
    mb     m     C     C    %   C     C  deg knt   K     K     K     K    g/kg
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
 0 1000   206                                                                 
SFC  978   382  -3.5  -8.5  68  5.0  -5.1  82  13 271.4 271.7 269.3 277.0  2.06
 2  950   611  -5.7  -9.3  76  3.6  -6.8  88  20 271.4 271.8 269.2 276.9  1.98
 3  850  1481  -4.4  -5.7  91  1.3  -4.9 131  28 281.5 282.0 276.5 289.8  2.93
 4  800  1961  -2.8  -5.4  82  2.6  -3.8 160  29 288.2 288.7 280.2 297.4  3.20
 5  750  2472  -3.7  -5.3  89  1.6  -4.4 183  27 292.5 293.2 282.4 302.7  3.43
 6  700  3016  -4.4  -4.8  97  0.4  -4.6 215  34 297.6 298.3 284.9 309.0  3.81
 7  650  3602  -3.5  -3.6  99  0.2  -3.6 236  52 305.1 305.9 288.4 318.9  4.51
 8  600  4232  -6.9  -8.2  91  1.3  -7.4 244  68 308.1 308.8 288.4 318.9  3.44
 9  550  4905 -11.3 -18.3  56  7.0 -13.5 245  71 310.6 310.9 287.4 316.0  1.64
10  500  5629 -16.2 -25.7  44  9.5 -18.4 245  64 313.3 313.5 287.6 316.5  0.95
11  450  6413 -22.2 -35.8  28 13.6 -24.2 247  64 315.3 315.4 287.7 316.8  0.40

7am Monday...snow

Date: 42 hour GFS valid 12Z MON 10 JAN 11
Station: Kgvl
Latitude:   34.32
Longitude: -83.83
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
LEV PRES  HGHT  TEMP  DEWP  RH  DD   WETB DIR SPD THETA THE-V THE-W THE-E   W
    mb     m     C     C    %   C     C  deg knt   K     K     K     K    g/kg
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
 0 1000   197                                                                 
SFC  977   381  -4.8  -5.3  96  0.5  -5.0  71  14 270.1 270.6 269.4 277.2  2.63
 2  950   600  -6.3  -6.7  98  0.3  -6.4  75  27 270.8 271.2 269.5 277.4  2.44
 3  850  1476  -2.3  -2.7  97  0.4  -2.4 144  34 283.8 284.4 278.7 294.2  3.70
 4  800  1960  -0.7  -0.8 100  0.1  -0.7 183  44 290.4 291.2 282.8 303.5  4.52
 5  750  2476  -0.7  -0.7 100  0.0  -0.7 211  49 295.8 296.7 285.3 310.0  4.84
 6  700  3027  -2.2  -2.2 100  0.0  -2.2 232  53 300.0 300.9 286.7 314.0  4.63
 7  650  3612  -6.6  -6.9  98  0.3  -6.7 237  49 301.5 302.1 286.1 312.2  3.50
 8  600  4230 -12.3 -13.3  92  1.0 -12.6 237  46 301.9 302.4 284.9 309.1  2.29
 9  550  4892 -14.8 -29.6  27 14.8 -17.7 237  54 306.6 306.7 284.8 308.6  0.60
10  500  5609 -18.1 -33.5  25 15.4 -20.7 239  64 311.0 311.1 286.2 312.6  0.45
11  450  6387 -24.0 -35.5  34 11.4 -25.7 242  66 313.0 313.1 286.9 314.5  0.41
12  400  7234 -30.6 -43.2  28 12.6 -31.8 243  68 315.2 315.2 287.4 315.9  0.21

1pm Monday...probably turn over to sleet by then

Date: 48 hour GFS valid 18Z MON 10 JAN 11
Station: Kgvl
Latitude:   34.32
Longitude: -83.83
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
LEV PRES  HGHT  TEMP  DEWP  RH  DD   WETB DIR SPD THETA THE-V THE-W THE-E   W
    mb     m     C     C    %   C     C  deg knt   K     K     K     K    g/kg
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
 0 1000   184                                                                 
SFC  975   381  -3.2  -3.8  96  0.6  -3.4  77  13 271.9 272.3 271.1 279.9  2.95
 2  950   590  -4.9  -5.3  97  0.3  -5.1  79  21 272.2 272.6 270.9 279.6  2.71
 3  850  1476   1.7   1.5  98  0.2   1.6 167  33 287.9 288.8 282.3 302.2  5.01
 4  800  1965   1.1   0.8  97  0.4   1.0 197  35 292.3 293.2 284.2 307.0  5.05
 5  750  2482  -1.7  -2.0  97  0.3  -1.9 210  34 294.7 295.5 284.4 307.7  4.39
 6  700  3028  -4.8  -5.9  92  1.1  -5.3 218  34 297.2 297.8 284.5 307.8  3.53
 7  650  3610  -5.9 -16.0  45 10.1  -9.1 238  39 302.3 302.6 284.4 307.6  1.68
 8  600  4234  -8.6 -24.8  26 16.2 -12.6 246  47 306.2 306.3 284.9 309.0  0.85
 9  550  4903 -12.6 -26.8  29 14.2 -15.8 250  51 309.2 309.3 285.9 311.8  0.77
10  500  5623 -17.6 -36.4  18 18.8 -20.5 254  53 311.6 311.7 286.4 312.8  0.34
11  450  6402 -23.8 -40.1  21 16.3 -25.8 258  58 313.3 313.3 286.8 314.2  0.26

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ncjoaquin

ncjoaquin

Posted
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00Z NAM doesn't show the freezing rain threat it and the GFS once showed just a few runs ago for Asheville. This was indeed a fantastic run for the mountains of WNC. Looks to me like almost 0.75" of liquid equivalent with a great chance of snow ratios between 15 and 20:1, which means a healthy 8-12" verbatim off the new NAM. And Foothills is right - that comma head lingers over most of NC for quite some time. My guess is that QPF in that deformation band is underestimated as well. This really could be a massive event for the mountains. Amazing.

Well, if true, this would be a unique event. I have 4 to 5 inches on the ground. I can't remember a big snow falling on top of a recent big snow. I'm sure it's happened, but I can't remember it.

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MotoWeatherman

MotoWeatherman

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Dawson, I almost just freaked out! I thought you were talking about the 0z NAM. Still that kind of dampens my excitement a bit

Sorry about that...

0z NAM says ATL turns to sleet before 10am and Gainesville might still be holding on to snow at 1pm or just turning to sleet at that time.

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packfan98

packfan98

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'88 storm that was the analog earlier in the week for comparison sake:

I know that analogs can help predict what might happen, but it seems like we focus on those great storms from days gone by and compare our current features to them. I'm thinking there are other times where there were very similar weather patterns, upper dynamics, etc... that DIDN'T turn in to a historic snowstorm. Don't we need to look at these cases as well?

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strongwxnc

strongwxnc

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Also the foothills. Looks great in the lee area also....

00Z NAM doesn't show the freezing rain threat it and the GFS once showed just a few runs ago for Asheville. This was indeed a fantastic run for the mountains of WNC. Looks to me like almost 0.75" of liquid equivalent with a great chance of snow ratios between 15 and 20:1, which means a healthy 8-12" verbatim off the new NAM. And Foothills is right - that comma head lingers over most of NC for quite some time. My guess is that QPF in that deformation band is underestimated as well. This really could be a massive event for the mountains. Amazing.

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Marion_NC_WX

Marion_NC_WX

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FWIW...I've just put together my first ever "first call map" since the time I've started reading these types of forums. It is posted on the other thread. Enjoy, my 1st grade art skills are killer...:devilsmiley:

BTW, looks like as soon as the 0z GFS has completed its run, we'll be in need for a new thread...anyone object to I doing the honors?

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NCSNOW

NCSNOW

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whats your feelings on mine and your's area for Monday/Tuesday?

sticking with my 3-6 with ice /crust on top call from yesterday. I'll have to say the 3 looks alot more likely at the moment. I'm not as swayed with model to model runs, and feel that we should accomplish a few inches and some freezing drizzle on top minimum. If im gonna change anything it will be tommorow night, but the track for this storm doesnt get any better for our area. Everything is in place, just have to keep the vort closed as long as possible and be weary of the very dry airmass. I still feel confident at the moment.

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DixieBlizzard

DixieBlizzard

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0z NAM turns Rome over from snow to sleet sometime between 11am and 1pm Monday.

18z GFS looks to turn Rome from snow to sleet shortly after 7am Monday.

Thanks! The temps are really crashing according to your graph and my back yard thermometer. It made it to 43F at 3:30PM and is now 23F. Winds continue to gust from the NW.

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Cold Rain

Cold Rain

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I know that analogs can help predict what might happen, but it seems like we focus on those great storms from days gone by and compare our current features to them. I'm thinking there are other times where there were very similar weather patterns, upper dynamics, etc... that DIDN'T turn in to a historic snowstorm. Don't we need to look at these cases as well?

This is a great post. But is there even any way to find such data?

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FoothillsNC

FoothillsNC

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Well, if true, this would be a unique event. I have 4 to 5 inches on the ground. I can't remember a big snow falling on top of a recent big snow. I'm sure it's happened, but I can't remember it.

Didn't it happen last Winter?

The GFS is going the way of RUC tonight. Much stronger 5H in northern La. Precip more north and expansive, yet still not enough, per real data from RUC. Its getting there though.

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packfan98

packfan98

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Posted

This is a great post. But is there even any way to find such data?

I don't know how to find it but I have read discussions from Raleigh's NWS that mentions what has happened in the past which are sometimes very meager events. Also, in years past I have seen JB's videos and it will have analogs listed that seems to be a computer program which spits out 5 or 6 different dates that had the same setup. If I remember correctly he mostly used it for pattern recognition and then he would say what storms or other significant weather happened in those analogs.

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