strongwxnc Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models.html Where are you guys getting the GFS data so quickly and is it free? Twisterdata still stuck on hr 54. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GSO_WX Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 Temps a big problem. Looks to be warmer across AL and GA. Could be major ice in Triad around 84. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 Almost .75" to I-40 in NC, what a difference from the NAM. This precip is over a 20 or so hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY18 Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 the gfs had major issues down toward central and southern alabama the qpf vanishes there and then reappears in ga thru the upstate and western and central nc there is no reason it should have vanished and then reappeared doesent make sense? ...sorry this has already been noted Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MotoWeatherman Posted January 8, 2011 Author Share Posted January 8, 2011 >.50" for your area but I think its this run is too low for you. I think it would be higher. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 There is a serious QPF issue with this run....nice streak of >.75" QPF thru MS then it vanishes to <.50" thru BHM and then it starts again from ATL thru Foothills house. Still a good run in my opinion and very similar to 18z run minus that odd QPF in AL. Edit: just notice I posted the AL QPF thing at the same time as Itunis. LOL It could possibly be something to do with the wedge..maybe there is more over running here. Whatever the case. Nearly 1.25 here....someone pinch me lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 Where are you guys getting the GFS data so quickly and is it free? Twisterdata still stuck on hr 54. I use this site but it is still slower than whatever they are using, anyone care to share? :-) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MotoWeatherman Posted January 8, 2011 Author Share Posted January 8, 2011 Where are you guys getting the GFS data so quickly and is it free? Twisterdata still stuck on hr 54. It's not free....paid sites like StormVista or WrightWeather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 This isn't as wet as the 18z GFS but it sure as hell wasn't the 00z NAM...just shows the models still can't get a handle on the qpf again this is probably gonna be a nowcast situation its a big hit for the 85 corridor from Atlanta to Charlotte on this run, with both areas mostly snow , and both ending as freezing drizzle most likely. Some 1" and 1.25" areas. Taken literally , probably the most snow is around Athens or between Athens and Atlanta, but the trend and overall look is whats mportant. I don't ever recall a big snow in CLT where RDU got mostly ice, mayb there has been one, but I don't remember. I do remember snows in Ala and GA that never made it here at all though, so we're no lock for anything yet. But alteast this didn't go the way of the NAM. This run has Shelby at -4 at 850 when snow starts and stays around -3 for the better part of the event, I haven't seen surface temps but with the damming and cold start, it was looking to be very cold at the surface, maybe around 20 to 24 to start Monday morning. Also at 850 the western Carolinas could experience some extra lift around say Oconee county as several good factors come together. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MotoWeatherman Posted January 8, 2011 Author Share Posted January 8, 2011 the gfs had major issues down toward central and southern alabama the qpf vanishes there and then reappears in ga thru the upstate and western and central nc there is no reason it should have vanished and then reappeared doesent make sense? Totally agree and I don't think the model has it correct showing it like that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 We've got a serious shot at going below zero in the whole region from GSP to CLT if we can get a deep enough snowpack. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 Yep, it looks like we get maybe 2" of snow then mainly ice afterwards. I think it would be fun if that panned out, roughly 2" of snow and an inch of sleet and then some freezing drizzle, it would be like an ice skating rink around here, great sledding, to bad I am going to be stuck in NY due to this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MotoWeatherman Posted January 8, 2011 Author Share Posted January 8, 2011 It could possibly be something to do with the wedge..maybe there is more over running here. Whatever the case. Nearly 1.25 here....someone pinch me lol Maybe so but it does seem odd in that previous runs kept the solid higher QPF band pretty much from MS all the way thru GA/SC without gaping holes like this run of the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
philconnors Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 .25 -.5'' instead of .75-1'' Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 Looks like the last .18 inches in Shelby is sleet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 Soundings show all that my 850's show 0.4 at 84 hr. All SN until then. I assume heavy rates would help This was a much better run than I thought...pretty amazing for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RaleighWx Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 This is a wetter run for NC than the 18z run. These are 72 hour amounts, excluding tonights bustorama amounts that were just model fantasy. Thru 72 hours it is likely snow for RDU, at 72 hours we reach 0.18C at 850, but it is likely overcome by high rates. By 78 hours, the warm nose is a bit more pronounced up to 0.83C at 850, so likely a sleet sounding but close enough to make me think snow is possible if the model is just slightly too strong with the warm nose. It is certainly freezing rain by 84 hours. So taken literally I would see a couple inches of snow, a signficant amount of sleet and certainly some freezing train to end. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 Looks like the last .18 inches in Shelby is sleet. Skip, I almost wonder if we'd kick back to snow like we did last January at the end of that event..something to ponder, I guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MotoWeatherman Posted January 8, 2011 Author Share Posted January 8, 2011 .25 -.5'' instead of .75-1'' I wouldn't sweat that just yet. I think the GFS "burped" over central AL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 its a big hit for the 85 corridor from Atlanta to Charlotte on this run, with both areas mostly snow , and both ending as freezing drizzle most likely. Some 1" and 1.25" areas. Taken literally , probably the most snow is around Athens or between Athens and Atlanta, but the trend and overall look is whats mportant. I don't ever recall a big snow in CLT where RDU got mostly ice, mayb there has been one, but I don't remember. I do remember snows in Ala and GA that never made it here at all though, so we're no lock for anything yet. But alteast this didn't go the way of the NAM. This run has Shelby at -4 at 850 when snow starts and stays around -3 for the better part of the event, I haven't seen surface temps but with the damming and cold start, it was looking to be very cold at the surface, maybe around 20 to 24 to start Monday morning. Also at 850 the western Carolinas could experience some extra lift around say Oconee county as several good factors come together. Yea I certainly spoke to soon, and to me it didn't look like it was going to be as wet as it was. I am right in between the .99 and 1.11 on the map, which would be just amazing if the majority of that fell as snow. The only thing I wish is that this would start earlier so I wouldn't have to go to work. However that being said it's been so long since we had a raging snow storm in the day...this will just be great to watch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 Maybe so but it does seem odd in that previous runs kept the solid higher QPF band pretty much from MS all the way thru GA/SC without gaping holes like this run of the GFS. Most likely but for several runs in a row now the gfs has been showing heavier amounts in la/ma, slightly lesser amounts in al, and then a little more in ga again. I'm figuring it's as the system is starting to shear our and weaken but then encounters the wedge and gets a second little boost in terms of precip. It's probably overdone though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 Yes the start time. Going to cause issues for schools and a program I have Monday afternoon. gesh. But screw it!! I would love to see this trend continue into the 06 runs. Yea I certainly spoke to soon, and to me it didn't look like it was going to be as wet as it was. I am right in between the .99 and 1.11 on the map, which would be just amazing if the majority of that fell as snow. The only thing I wish is that this would start earlier so I wouldn't have to go to work. However that being said it's been so long since we had a raging snow storm in the day...this will just be great to watch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCBlizzard Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 Yea I certainly spoke to soon, and to me it didn't look like it was going to be as wet as it was. I am right in between the .99 and 1.11 on the map, which would be just amazing if the majority of that fell as snow. The only thing I wish is that this would start earlier so I wouldn't have to go to work. However that being said it's been so long since we had a raging snow storm in the day...this will just be great to watch. yea the snow is beautiful to watch fall. The last one that fell during the day didn't work out so well March 2-3 last year Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 I think it would be fun if that panned out, roughly 2" of snow and an inch of sleet and then some freezing drizzle, it would be like an ice skating rink around here, great sledding, to bad I am going to be stuck in NY due to this. I agree pack....it would be something different. It isn't often you can get a mixed bag like this out of a storm. If it worked out like the 0z gfs I would be happy. The kids and I could have some fun! My wife says I'm just a big kid anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 There is a serious QPF issue with this run....nice streak of >.75" QPF thru MS then it vanishes to <.50" thru BHM and then it starts again from ATL thru Foothills house. Still a good run in my opinion and very similar to 18z run minus that odd QPF in AL. Edit: just notice I posted the AL QPF thing at the same time as Itunis. LOL I think thats just model noise, the way a model has a gap here and there if theres no explanation for it. However on this side of the mountains whre the upstate to about here, we frequently DO see the gap, as I'm sure you've noticed, for good reason though. This run though matches teh SREF more and theres not much reason for a sudden diminish precip trend now, especially since each of the last 6 runs of the models have maintained a stronger vort, further east and for a longer distance, but still has it basically aimed at Al, southern Tenn, n. GA and the western Carolinas now. I expect that trend to continue to all of NC as well. You know you would think the higher resolution NAM would pick up on that better than the GFS would. The GFS has outperformed NAM on CAD events a few years now, atleast 2 that I remember. I dont 'know what happened but the GFS def. outperforms ondamming here now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MotoWeatherman Posted January 8, 2011 Author Share Posted January 8, 2011 Most likely but for several runs in a row now the gfs has been showing heavier amounts in la/ma, slightly lesser amounts in al, and then a little more in ga again. I'm figuring it's as the system is starting to shear our and weaken but then encounters the wedge and gets a second little boost in terms of precip. It's probably overdone though. True...just went back and checked the previous 3 runs and all decreased a bit in AL so you might be on to something there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ganut Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 i beleive you going to have to move this a little more south kinda of a split between the nam and gfs puts ags and cae 5-7 inches then ice Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 The SV snowmap has that little spec of 8-12 over me by 84 hours Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
philconnors Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 I wouldn't sweat that just yet. I think the GFS "burped" over central AL. Yea it looks funny. Doesnt add up. Hopefully it isnt the beginning of a trend. Do you think that 00z nam was overdone? I am thinking a happy medium would be the solution for central AL and ATL. 3-6'' with higher amounts where the best banding shows up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 Fishel just pretty much canceled the storm... a little light rain Monday night, a little light drizzle Tuesday morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.