rduwx Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 Please forgive me I'm new...I'm confused as to how NWS RAH is issuing WSW for all of Central NC while no precipitation is making it to RDU...How can there be so much discrepancy? I was talking more about the 0z nam run. There have been other model runs that have brought .5 qpf w/ some snow, sleet, and freezing rain. If we ended up w/ something like that it would definitely reach warning criteria. The NWS has to be cautious and keep the general public safety in mind. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itunis Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 I dont forecast explicity off the models. Never have. I thought the numbers you threw out were what you read from the NAM, sorry. If you're including metro Atlanta in those numbers it's a pretty ballsy forecast, but I like it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WidreMann Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 I love this run to death. In the big picture, its upping amounts, further east, so the trends are what you look at from a determistic model standpoint, plus we remain colder in NC. The 5H vort is way stronger than any model showed in Miss., so that alone argues for better moisture and rates here, regardless if the NAM sees it, which I hate that model, but its trends are useful. I'm still a little afraid of too much moisture and warm advection , per RUC though, which would give western TEnn and nrn Ala and Miss the big snow, and some areas around Arkansas a rare huge snow. Hard to pinpoint now, but the trends are still in the Srn Apps favor, especially around northern and extreme northeast Georgia, which could be the sweet spot. We'll see what the GFS thinks, but for the western Carolinas its about RUC and SREF time. I don't know how you can look at the trends and tell me that they look good for anyone except far SW NC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tngirl Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 It is a mistake/data problem....or else Cheeznado has gone mad....which is entirely possible. Maybe I have tried many areas in Tennessee and they are all below 5 degrees so I was wondering if anyone else has noticed the same thing?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wake4est Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 I don't know how you can look at the trends and tell me that they look good for anyone except far SW NC. Agreed. No model has showed the dry air in place being overcome. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 I don't know how you can look at the trends and tell me that they look good for anyone except far SW NC. I was wondering that as well. There is a brick wall up in western and southern NC through which no precip passes. The vort is "much" stronger and the precip here is even less. What should we be pulling for here? I'm totally confused now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 How do you know that his definition of things looking good doesn't equal you getting screwed? I don't know how you can look at the trends and tell me that they look good for anyone except far SW NC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 per the nam I think Robert is about spot on.. I think the ice on the back end will be tricky. either way we should have some fun yes the interiror of the Carolinas and northern third of Ga will have a bout of freezing drizzle aftter the snow, per all models. The incoming strong s/w divergence will keep mid level moisture falling lightly into 26 or 28 degree air. So how do you explain the NAM not showing any precip for RDU? I don't know how you can look at the trends and tell me that they look good for anyone except far SW NC. I said "I love this run" , obviously I'm not in Chapel Hill , but the runs are continuously holding the 5H in tact further and having trouble showing the qpf for your area, but who's to say thats right. This could be Dec. 2000 in reverse, where the models nailed the piedmont and the WC sent Jim Cantore here under sunny skies. Its really going to come down to the track of the 5H vort and how long it holds together, and it will fall apart, eventually ( I guess) but the trends are futher east. You'll somehow still end up more than me I bet. You always do. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 Agreed. No model has showed the dry air in place being overcome. I think us in central/eastern NC can give up on this and let everyone else enjoy there snow and root them on. We got hit good a few weeks ago plus it's going to be warming up soon! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Bob Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 Maybe I have tried many areas in Tennessee and they are all below 5 degrees so I was wondering if anyone else has noticed the same thing?? The local forecast is showing 6 degrees here in Chatt...in reality we will be in the upper teens...All their weather is digitally extracted...someone just hit a wrong button or else a processor fried somewhere along the way to publishing. But this thread is not really for TWC computer problems. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NavarreDon Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 Maybe I have tried many areas in Tennessee and they are all below 5 degrees so I was wondering if anyone else has noticed the same thing?? You may already do this but just in case. Try using this instead of weather.com http://www.srh.noaa.gov/bna/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GSO_WX Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 NAM showing very little in Greensboro. Just can't believe the moisture is literally hitting a brick wall at the S.C. line. Amazing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Marion_NC_WX Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 I love this run to death. In the big picture, its upping amounts, further east, so the trends are what you look at from a determistic model standpoint, plus we remain colder in NC. The 5H vort is way stronger than any model showed in Miss., so that alone argues for better moisture and rates here, regardless if the NAM sees it, which I hate that model, but its trends are useful. I'm still a little afraid of too much moisture and warm advection , per RUC though, which would give western TEnn and nrn Ala and Miss the big snow, and some areas around Arkansas a rare huge snow. Hard to pinpoint now, but the trends are still in the Srn Apps favor, especially around northern and extreme northeast Georgia, which could be the sweet spot. We'll see what the GFS thinks, but for the western Carolinas its about RUC and SREF time. Foothills...I have to agree with you 100 percent and I'll tell you why. By looking at this new run...IMBY we have all the incredients needed... Precip... more than suitable 850's... good lift and 700mb RH from around 12z Monday until between 0z and 6 z Tuesday... So in other words, we have 12 hours in which we'll have the QPF, the 850's will be in the -3 to -4 range and there will be enough saturation at the dendric level (which was a great concern in GSP's afternoon forecast package) Infact the 0z NAM would argue, as you said for more snow and less mix especially for those along the US 74 cooridor and Northward in Western North Carolina. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 I have to admit, I'm about ready to throw in the towel for the RDU area. Very dry air, combined with anemic lift means that it will take twice as long to saturate the column. If RDU only receives .3 total QPF, half of that will go into saturating the column, leaving virtually nothing left. This is beginning to look like a nasty, cold, drizzly mess. I agree...It's looking like we're going to end up w/ 3 cold, cloudy, drizzly days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WidreMann Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 I have to admit, I'm about ready to throw in the towel for the RDU area. Very dry air, combined with anemic lift means that it will take twice as long to saturate the column. If RDU only receives .3 total QPF, half of that will go into saturating the column, leaving virtually nothing left. This is beginning to look like a nasty, cold, drizzly mess. Do you work at the NWS? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 Two questions: 1. What is the typical bias(not just for this storm) of the NAM at this point? Is it too far NW, too far SW, does it wrap-up the low, qpf, etc? 2. Foothills mentioned that warm air advection and moisture to far west would mean more snow out west and I am assuming less the further east you go. Is that because the reflection of the low going west of the Apps would go too far west? What are the implications for all west of Mississippi if that happens? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrips27 Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 NAM just wrecks NW Georgia! I'm in the 7-8" range which would be amazing Near Rome gets close to 10"!! This is going off Raleigh's page btw Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 Robert, I noticed a significant increase in moisture off the coast just south of Charleston on hours 45-54 vs the 18z run, does this have to do with your trending stronger and east? From your posts you sound like the upper air features look good but the surface features have not completely caught up. I'm hoping that since our moisture is progged to begin 12 hours after yours that it will take 2 extra model runs for the precip to match what should be happening. I guess in the end, our CAD that we normally are dying to have is going to squash our moisture. You win some you, you lose some. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 21z SREF is much wetter for NC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 I'm not what to make of Atlanta's AFD What are they looking at? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 perfect comma head been showing up for the Carolinas run , after run , after run. 36, 42, 48. This is a dream storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MotoWeatherman Posted January 9, 2011 Author Share Posted January 9, 2011 NAM just wrecks NW Georgia! I'm in the 7-8" range which would be amazing Near Rome gets close to 10"!! This is going off Raleigh's page btw Yep...hard to believe we are less than 24 hours from kickoff and it still looks this good for us. I do feel sorry that not everyone is going to cash in on this but I sure am ready. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jet Stream Rider Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 What are the chances that the low doesn't fade as much as proged by the models and maybe hangs together crosses Fla and heads up the se coast? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chapelhillwx Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 perfect comma head been showing up for the Carolinas run , after run , after run. 36, 42, 48. This is a dream storm. The omega sure looks nice, but the NAM would have to be DEAD wrong for anywhere other than your area to get decent snow IMHO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earlwx Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 I'm not what to make of Atlanta's AFD What are they looking at? So FFC is hinting towards an ice event, interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
audioguy3107 Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 I'm not what to make of Atlanta's AFD What are they looking at? I was just thinking the same thing.....basically about the part where the model shows 0 snow accumulation below a Rome to Gainesville line?????? what are they looking at????? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Czar Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 perfect comma head been showing up for the Carolinas run , after run , after run. 36, 42, 48. This is a dream storm. You have really been out front on this one Robert. Looks like the models are trending towards the thoughts you put out days ago. I like how the models are trending wetter and wetter in N GA and southwest NC. All that snow should be headed your way. Where is Dawson? He just got crushed on that run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MotoWeatherman Posted January 9, 2011 Author Share Posted January 9, 2011 I'm not what to make of Atlanta's AFD What are they looking at? Sounds like they are worrying about their forecast that's all. They put those watches out yesterday when QPF amounts were higher. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 So, for people in the know(Mr. Bob included) if Chatt gets the forecasted snow...Where will this stack-up for them as far as winters go in the past twenty-five years? I can't remember many better recently? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 21z SREF is much wetter for NC they continue inching north. I think they're still too dry overall, esp. west of the Apps. but atleast now they have some 1.00" amounts in Mississippi. Has .50 " overall for western Carolinas, which is 4 to 8" storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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