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The Jan 9-10 Storm Part 3


MotoWeatherman

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Hopefully not. Not giving me a warm and fuzzy feeling though in general...but I can already hear the screams of snow fans watching the VIRGA storm while anxiously waiting on the snow to make it to the ground.

Thanks, hopefully that won't be the case.

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Man that precip turns the corner around the mountains at Saluda and just gets punched in the face. You're right, watching radar is going to be an exercise in sadism for many of us from Rutherford County east.

Hopefully not. Not giving me a warm and fuzzy feeling though in general...but I can already hear the screams of snow fans watching the VIRGA storm while anxiously waiting on the snow to make it to the ground.

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Hopefully not. Not giving me a warm and fuzzy feeling though in general...but I can already hear the screams of snow fans watching the VIRGA storm while anxiously waiting on the snow to make it to the ground.

Yep starting to get a little nervous as well. Hopefully the at game time the dry air gets out done by the moisture.

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lol @42 the precip goes straight south WTF

Dude...this run is AN AWESOME sight for us. We have colder temps and more precip. The snow ratios will be awesome. Foothills visions of what is on the table and what can happen are starting to show. I bet we end up getting snookered when its all said and done. Also, we should have more snow vs. ice, taking this run verbatim...

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Please forgive me I'm new...I'm confused as to how NWS RAH is issuing WSW for all of Central NC while no precipitation is making it to RDU...How can there be so much discrepancy?

We just can't get any precip into the RDU area. It just seems we have to many things to overcome to get this to work out in our area.

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the nam is probably an 8 to 10" snow in n. Alabama and N. Ga and the trend is what matters. Its seeiing the stronger vort for the duration now , and this will continue east in northern Sc and southern NC I think. The 5H is wonderful. Its qpf fields are catching up.

More like 4-6" for the I-20 area as QPF has decreased (for metro ATL at least) and temps continue to be an issue. Pretty good run for us, though not quite as aggressive as earlier nam.

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Per Robers thoughts he just posted. A medal will be needed if he nails this. However, I can see Saluda from my back porch !! Off to my sw....:)

Man that precip turns the corner around the mountains at Saluda and just gets punched in the face. You're right, watching radar is going to be an exercise in sadism for many of us from Rutherford County east.

I can agree with you on that. I got one more year on you also..

In my 30 years of living here in Western North Carolina...I can't think of a single winter weather event (with GOM origins) where we were too cold and too dry to allow precip to develop. Of course, I guess there is a first time for everything.

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I am new to this forum and I am hoping someone can answer this for me. Earlier today weather.com had my low for tonight at 17 degrees. However, they have dropped it to -1 degrees for tonight in Lebanon, TN and they have Nashville at 2 degrees. What does this mean and why just a drastic change? I am wondering if any others are seeing this as well on weather.com?? If so does this mean we will not come close to reaching our high for tomorrow?? Never seen it get below freezing in TN to say the least. Could this be a mistake or are the temps going to be much lower than originally forecasted??

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Yeah, through 54 hours the NAM gives us zip. Absolutely amazing.

Wow! 0 QPF at RDU, RWI, and PGV through 54hrs on this run, and looking at the sim, it is pretty much over. Hard to believe though looking at the 700mb RH panels, but would fit the bill given a very dry air mass below that.

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I love this run to death. In the big picture, its upping amounts, further east, so the trends are what you look at from a determistic model standpoint, plus we remain colder in NC. The 5H vort is way stronger than any model showed in Miss., so that alone argues for better moisture and rates here, regardless if the NAM sees it, which I hate that model, but its trends are useful. I'm still a little afraid of too much moisture and warm advection , per RUC though, which would give western TEnn and nrn Ala and Miss the big snow, and some areas around Arkansas a rare huge snow. Hard to pinpoint now, but the trends are still in the Srn Apps favor, especially around northern and extreme northeast Georgia, which could be the sweet spot. We'll see what the GFS thinks, but for the western Carolinas its about RUC and SREF time.

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I am new to this forum and I am hoping someone can answer this for me. Earlier today weather.com had my low for tonight at 17 degrees. However, they have dropped it to -1 degrees for tonight in Lebanon, TN and they have Nashville at 2 degrees. What does this mean and why just a drastic change? I am wondering if any others are seeing this as well on weather.com?? If so does this mean we will not come close to reaching our high for tomorrow?? Never seen it get below freezing in TN to say the least. Could this be a mistake or are the temps going to be much lower than originally forecasted??

It is a mistake/data problem....or else Cheeznado has gone mad....which is entirely possible.

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More like 4-6" for the I-20 area as QPF has decreased (for metro ATL at least) and temps continue to be an issue. Pretty good run for us, though not quite as aggressive as earlier nam.

per the nam I think Robert is about spot on.. I think the ice on the back end will be tricky.

either way we should have some fun :snowman:

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for what it's worth, it looks like the soundings are definitely colder on this run.

Correct! There may be less qpf shown, but what does fall will have better ratios! I am gambling 20:1. If you look at hr 54, it looks like our triangle area is still in snow. I bet this unfolds to where we are 90% snow and end with frz drizzle...

Would you mind running a bulfkit for Shelby, CLT and Gastonia? Thanks so much man!

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I love this run to death. In the big picture, its upping amounts, further east, so the trends are what you look at from a determistic model standpoint, plus we remain colder in NC. The 5H vort is way stronger than any model showed in Miss., so that alone argues for better moisture and rates here, regardless if the NAM sees it, which I hate that model, but its trends are useful. I'm still a little afraid of too much moisture and warm advection , per RUC though, which would give western TEnn and nrn Ala and Miss the big snow, and some areas around Arkansas a rare huge snow. Hard to pinpoint now, but the trends are still in the Srn Apps favor, especially around northern and extreme northeast Georgia, which could be the sweet spot. We'll see what the GFS thinks, but for the western Carolinas its about RUC and SREF time.

So how do you explain the NAM not showing any precip for RDU?

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